Flash flood forecasting using Data-Based Mechanistic models and radar rainfall forecasts

IAHS-AISH Publication

Volumn 351, Issue , 2012, Pages 562-567

  Smith, Paul J ^a   Beven, Keith ^a   Panziera, Luca ^b   Germann, U R S ^b  

^a LANCASTER UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

^b MeteoSwiss ^*  (Switzerland)

Author keywords

DBM; Flash flood; IMPRINTS; NORA; Verzasca

Indexed keywords

DBM; FLASH FLOOD; IMPRINTS; NORA; VERZASCA;

CATCHMENTS; FLOOD CONTROL; METEOROLOGICAL RADAR; RUNOFF; WEATHER FORECASTING;

FLOODS;

CATCHMENT; COMPARATIVE STUDY; DATA ACQUISITION; FLASH FLOOD; FLOOD FORECASTING; FLOW MODELING; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); RADAR IMAGERY; RAINFALL; TIME SERIES;

EID: 84883068322     PISSN: 01447815     EISSN: None     Source Type: Conference Proceeding    
DOI: None     Document Type: Conference Paper

References (28)

1. Braun, L. (1985) Simulation of snowmelt-runoff in lowland and lower alpine regions of Switzerland. In: Zürcher Geographische Schriften, Heft 21, ETH Zürich [available from the Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science ETH, Winterthurerstr. 190, Zürich, Switzerland].
2. Cloke, H. L. & Pappenberger, F. (2009) Ensemble flood forecasting: A review. J. Hydrol. 375,613-626.
3. Dietrich, J., Schumann, A. H., Redetzky, M., Walther, J., Denhard, M., Wang, Y., Pfuetzner, B. & Buettner, U. (2009) Assessing uncertainties in flood forecasts for decision making: prototype of an operational flood management system integrating ensemble predictions. NHESS 9, 1529-1540.
4. Germann, U. & Zawadski, I. (2002) Scale Dependence of the predictability if precipitation from continental radar images. Part I: Description of the methodology. Monthly Weather Rev. 130,2859-2873.
5. Germann, U., Zawadzki, I. & Turner, B. (2006) Predictability of precipitation from continental radar images. Part IV: Limits to prediction. J. Atmos. Sci. 63,2092-2108. (Pubitemid 44288596)
6. Krzysztofowicz, R. (1999) Bayesian theory of probabilistic forecasting via deterministic hydrologie model. Water Resour. Res. 35,2739-2750.
7. Lees, M. J., Young, P. C, Ferguson, S., Beven, K. J. & Burns, J. (1994) An adaptive flood warning scheme for the River Nith at Dumfries. In: 2nd Inter-national Conference on River Flood Hydraulics (ed. by W. Watts & J. Watts), Wiley, UK. Marsigli, C, Boccanera, F., Montani, A. & Paccagnella, T. (2005) The COSMO-LEPS mesoscale ensemble system: Validation of the methodology and verification. Nonlinear Proc. Geoph. 12, 527-536.
8. Marsigli, C, Montani, A. & Paccangnella, T. (2008) A spatial verification method applied to the evaluation of high-resolution ensemble forecasts. Meteorol. App. 15, 125-143.
9. Martinec, J., Rango, A. & Major, E. (1983) The snowmelt runoff model users manual. NASA Tech. Report 1100.
10. Obled, C, Bontron, G. & Garcon, R. (2002) Quantitative precipitation forecasts: a statistical adaptation of model outputs through an analogues sorting approach. Atmos. Res. 63, 303-324. (Pubitemid 35022457)
11. Panziera, L. & Germann, U. (2010) The relationship between airflow and orograohic precipitation on the southern side of the Alps as revealed by weather radar Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc. 136,222-238
12. Panziera, L., Germann, U., Hering, A. & Mandapaka, P. (2011) Nowcasting of orographic rainfall by using Doppler weather radar. In: Weather Radar and Hydrology (Proceedings of a symposium held in Exeter, UK, April 2011). IAHS Publ. 351. IAHS Press, Wallingford, UK.
13. Ranzi, R., Zappa, M. & Bacchi, B. (2007) Hydrological aspects of the Mesoscale Alpine Programme: Findings from field experiments and simulations. Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc. 133, 867-880. (Pubitemid 47096483)
14. Romanowicz, R. J., Young, P. C. & Beven, K.J. (2006) Data assimilation and adaptive forecasting of water levels in the River Severn catchment, United Kingdom. Water Resour. Res. 42, W06407.
15. Romanowicz, R. J., Young, P. C, Beven, K. J. & Pappenberger, F. (2008) A data based mechanistic approach to nonlinear flood routing and adaptive flood level forecasting. Adv. Water Resour. 31, 1048-1056.
16. Schaake, J. C, Hamill, T. M., Buizza, R. & Clark, M. (2007) The hydrological ensemble prediction experiment. B Am. Meteorol. Soc. 88, 1541-1547.
17. Schweppe F. C(1965) Evaluation of likelihood functions for gaussian signals. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory 11(1), 61-70.
18. Sirangelo B., Versace, P. & De Luca, D. L. (2007) Rainfall nowcasting by at site stochastic model PRAISE. Hydrol. Earth System Sci. 11,1341-1351. (Pubitemid 46773006)
19. Thielen, J., Bogner, K., Pappenberger, F., Kalas, M., del Medico, M. & de Roo, A. (2009) Monthly-, medium-, and short-range flood Warning: Testing the limits of predictability. Meteorol. App. 16, 77-90.
20. Todini, E. (2008) A model conditional processor to assess predictive uncertainty in flood forecasting. Int. J. River Basin Manage. 6(2), 123-137.
21. Wöhling, T., Lennartz F. && Zappa, M. (2006) Updating Procedure for Flood Forecasting with conceptual HBV-Type Models. Hydro!. Earth System Sci. 10, 783-788. (Pubitemid 44757468)
22. Young, P. C. (2001) Data-based mechanistic modelling and validation of rainfall-flow processes. In: Model Validation: Perspectives in Hydrological Science (ed. by M. G. Anderson && P. D. Bates), 117-161. Wiley, Chichester, UK.
23. Young, P. C. (2002) Advances in real-time flood forecasting. Philos. T. Roy. Soc. A. 360(1796), 1433-1450.
24. Young, P. C. (2003) Top-down and data-based mechanistic modelling of rainfall-flow dynamics at the catchment scale. Hydrol.Process. 17(11), 2195-2217.
25. Young, P. C. (2006) The data-based mechanistic approach to the modelling, forecasting and control of environmental systems. Annual Reviews in Control 30(2), 169-182.
26. Young, P. C, McKenna, P. & Bruun, J. (2001) Identification of non-linear stochastic systems by state dependent parameter estimation. Int. J. Control 74(18), 1837-1857.
27. Young, P. C, Chotai, A. & Beven, K. J. (2004) Data-based mechanistic modelling and the simplification of environmental systems. In: Environmental Modelling: Finding Simplicity in Complexity (ed. by J. Wainwright & M. Mullgan), 371-388.
28. Young, P. C, Castelletti, A. & Pianosi, F. (2007) The data-based mechanistic approach in hydrological modelling. In: Topics on System Analysis and Integrated Water Resource Management (ed. by A. Castelletti & R. S. Sessa), 27-48. Elsevier, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.