Pattern-based statistical downscaling of East Asian summer monsoon precipitation

Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography

Volumn 65, Issue , 2013, Pages 1-12

  Simon, Thorsten ^a   Hense, Andreas ^a   Su, Buda ^b   Jiang, Tong ^b   Simmer, Clemens ^a   Ohlwein, Christian ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF BONN   (Germany)

^b China Meteorological Administration   (China)

Author keywords

Downscaling; East Asian summer monsoon; EOF; Logistic regression; Meiyu belt; Poyang catchment; Precipitation

Indexed keywords

CATCHMENT; COMPUTER SIMULATION; DOWNSCALING; EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS; MONSOON; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); PRECIPITATION ASSESSMENT; RAINGAUGE; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; SPATIAL ANALYSIS; VORTEX FLOW; AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW; GEOSTROPHIC FLOW; MESOSCALE METEOROLOGY; RAINFALL; SUMMER; VORTICITY;

CHINA; JIANGXI; POYANG LAKE; YANGTZE RIVER;

EID: 84882627175     PISSN: 02806495     EISSN: 16000870     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3402/tellusa.v65i0.19749     Document Type: Article

References (62)

1. Bachner, S., Kapala, A. and Simmer, C. 2008. Evaluation of daily precipitation characteristics in the clm and their sensitivity to parameterizations. Meteorolo Z. 17(4), 407-419.
2. Benestad, R. 2004. Empirical-statistical downscaling in climate modeling. Eos. 85(42), 417.
3. Benestad, R., Nychka, D. and Mearns, L. 2012. Specification of wet-day daily rainfall quantiles from the mean value. Tellus A. 64, 14981. DOI: 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.14981.
4. Bentzien, S. and Friederichs, P. 2012. Generating and calibrating probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts from the high-resolution nwp model cosmo-de. Weather Forecast. 27, 988-1002.
5. Bierdel, L., Friederichs, P. and Bentzien, S. 2012. Spatial kinetic energy spectra in the convection-permitting limited-area nwp model cosmo-de. Meteorol Z. 21, 245-258.
6. Bremnes, J. 2004. Probabilistic forecasts of precipitation in terms of quantiles using nwp model output. Mon. Weather. Rev. 132(1), 338-347.
7. Bretherton, C., Widmann, M., Dymnikov, V., Wallace, J. and Bladé, I. 1999. The effective number of spatial degrees of freedom of a time-varying field. J. Climate. 12(7), 1990-2009.
8. Brier, G. 1950. Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability. Mon. Weather. Rev. 78(1), 1-3.
9. Chang, C. 2004. East Asian Monsoon. Vol. 2. World Scientific, Singapore.
10. Chang, C., Yi, L. and Chen, G. 2000. A numerical simulation of vortex development during the 1992 East Asian summer monsoon onset using the navy's regional model. Mon. Weather. Rev. 128(6), 1604-1631.
11. Chen, S. and Dell'Osso, L. 1984. Numerical prediction of the heavy rainfall vortex over eastern Asia monsoon region. J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn. 62(5), 730-747.
12. Cooley, D., Nychka, D. and Naveau, P. 2007. Bayesian spatial modeling of extreme precipitation return levels. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 102(479), 824-840.
13. Ding, Y. and Chan, J. 2005. The East Asian summer monsoon: an overview. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 89(1), 117-142.
14. Ding, Y., Zhang, Y., Ma, Q. and Hu, G. 2001. Analysis of the large-scale circulation features and synoptic systems in East Asia during the intensive observation period of game/hubex. J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn. 79(1B), 277-300.
15. Dommenget, D. and Latif, M. 2002. A cautionary note on the interpretation of EOFs. J. Climate. 15(2), 216-225.
16. Ebell, K., Bachner, S., Kapala, A. and Simmer, C. 2008. Sensitivity of summer precipitation simulated by the clm with respect to initial and boundary conditions. Meteorol. Z. 17(4), 421-431.
17. Efron, B. and Tibshirani, R. 1993. An Introduction to the Bootstrap. Vol. 57. Chapman & Hall/CRC, London.
18. Frei, C., Schöll, R., Fukutome, S., Schmidli, J. and Vidale, P. 2006. Future change of precipitation extremes in Europe: Intercomparison of scenarios from regional climate models. J. Geophys. Res. 111(D6), D06105.
19. Friederichs, P. and Hense, A. 2007. Statistical downscaling of extreme precipitation events using censored quantile regression. Mon. Weather Rev. 135(6), 2365-2378.
20. Gao, X., Shi, Y., Song, R., Giorgi, F., Wang, Y. and co-authors. 2008. Reduction of future monsoon precipitation over China: Comparison between a high resolution rcm simulation and the driving gcm. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 100(1), 73-86.
21. Gneiting, T., Balabdaoui, F. and Raftery, A. 2007. Probabilistic forecasts, calibration and sharpness. J. Roy. Stat. Soc. B 69(2), 243-268.
22. Guo, Q. 1983. The summer monsoon index in East Asia and its variation (in Chinese). Acta Geogr Sin. 38, 208-217.
23. Hannachi, A., Jolliffe, I. and Stephenson, D. 2007. Empirical orthogonal functions and related techniques in atmospheric science: a review. Int. J. Climatol. 27(9), 1119-1152.
24. Hastie, T., Tibshirani, R. and Friedman, J. 2008. The Elements of Statistical Learning. 2nd ed. Springer, Series in Statistics, Berlin.
25. Jolliffe, I. 2002. Principal Component Analysis. 3rd ed. Springer, Series in Statistics, New York.
26. Kron, W. 2009. Flood insurance: from clients to global financial markets. J. Flood Risk Manage. 2(1), 68-75.
27. Kuo, Y., Cheng, L. and Bao, J. 1988. Numerical simulation of the 1981 Sichuan flood: Part i. evolution of a mesoscale southwest vortex. Mon. Weather Rev. 116(12), 2481-2504.
28. Li, J. and Zeng, Q. 2002. A unified monsoon index. Geophys res lett. 29(8), 115-1.
29. Lindau, R. and Simmer, C. 2013. On correcting precipitation as simulated by the regional climate model cosmo-clm with daily rain gauge observations. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 119, 31-42.
30. Maraun, D., Wetterhall, F., Ireson, A., Chandler, R., Kendon, E. and co-authors. 2010. Precipitation downscaling under climate change: recent developments to bridge the gap between dynamical models and the end user. Rev. Geophys. 48(3), RG3003.
31. McCullagh, P. and Nelder, J. 1989. Generalized Linear Models. Chapman & Hall/CRC, London.
32. Mesinger, F. and Veljovic, K. 2013. Limited area nwp and regional climate modeling: a test of the relaxation vs eta lateral boundary conditions. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 119, 1-16.
33. Michaelsen, J. 1987. Cross-validation in statistical climate forecast models. J. Clim. Appl. Meteorol. 26(11), 1589-1600.
34. Murphy, J. 1999. An evaluation of statistical and dynamical techniques for downscaling local climate. J. Climate. 12(8), 2256-2284.
35. Neelin, J., Battisti, D., Hirst, A., Jin, F., Wakata, Y. and co-authors. 1998. Enso theory. J. Geophys. Res. 103(C7), 14261-14290.
36. Orlowsky, B., Bothe, O., Fraedrich, K., Gerstengarbe, F. and Zhu, X. 2010. Future climates from bias-bootstrapped weather analogs: An application to the Yangtze river basin. J. Climate. 23(13), 3509-3524.
37. Park, E., Hong, S. and Kang, H. 2008. Characteristics of an east-Asian summer monsoon climatology simulated by the regcm3. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 100(1), 139-158.
38. Piao, S., Ciais, P., Huang, Y., Shen, Z., Peng, S. and co-authors. 2010. The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China. Nature 467(7311), 43-51.
39. R Development Core Team. 2011. R foundation for statistical computing. Vienna, Austria. ISBN 3-900051-07-0. Online at: http://www.R-project.org
40. Roeckner, E. 2003. The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM 5. Part 1: model description. Max-Plank-Institut für Meteorologie, Report 349, 127 pp.
41. Schölzel, C. and Hense, A. 2011. Probabilistic assessment of regional climate change in southwest Germany by ensemble dressing. Clim. Dynam. 36(9), 2003-2014.
42. Skamarock, W. 2004. Evaluating mesoscale nwp models using kinetic energy spectra. Mon. Weather Rev. 132(12), 3019-3032.
43. Tao, S. and Ding, Y. 1981. Observational evidence of the influence of the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) plateau on the occurrence of heavy rain and severe convective storms in China. B. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 62(1), 23-30.
44. Trenberth, K., Dai, A., Rasmussen, R. and Parsons, D. 2003. The changing character of precipitation. B. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 84(9), 1205-1218.
45. Uppala, S., Kållberg, P., Simmons, A., Andrae, U., Bechtold, V. and co-authors. 2005. The era-40 re-analysis. Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 131(612), 2961-3012.
46. Von Storch, H. and Zwiers, F. 2002. Statistical Analysis in Climate Research. Cambridge Univ Pr.
47. Vrac, M. and Naveau, P. 2007. Stochastic downscaling of precipitation: from dry events to heavy rainfalls. Water Resour. Res. 43, W07402.
48. Wang, B. 2006. The Asian Monsoon. Springer Verlag, Berlin. Wang, B., Ding, Q., Fu, X., Kang, I., Jin, K. and co-authors. 2005. Fundamental challenge in simulation and prediction of summer monsoon rainfall. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32(15), L15711.
49. Wang, B. and Fan, Z. 1999. Choice of south Asian summer monsoon indices. B. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 80, 629-638.
50. Wang, B. and Orlanski, I. 1987. Study of a heavy rain vortex formed over the eastern flank of the Tibetan plateau. Mon Weather Rev. 115(07), 1370-1393.
51. Wang, B., Wu, R. and Fu, X. 2000. Pacific-East Asian teleconnection: How does enso affect East Asian climate? J. Climate. 13(9), 1517-1536.
52. Wang, B., Wu, Z., Li, J., Liu, J., Chang, C. and co-authors. 2008. How to measure the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon. J. Climate. 21(17), 4449-4463.
53. Webster, P. and Yang, S. 1992. Monsoon and ENSO: selectively interactive systems. Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 118(507), 877-926.
54. Wilby, R. and Wigley, T. 2000. Precipitation predictors for downscaling: observed and general circulation model relationships. Int. J. Climatol. 20(6), 641-661.
55. Wilby, R., Wigley, T., Conway, D., Jones, P., Hewitson, B. and co-authors. 1998. Statistical downscaling of general circulation model output: A comparison of methods. Water Resour. Res. 34(11), 2995-3008.
56. Wilks, D. 2011. Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. Vol. 100. Academic Press, Boston.
57. Winkler, R. 1994. Evaluating probabilities: asymmetric scoring rules. Manage Sci. 40, 1395-1405.
58. Zhai, P., Zhang, X., Wan, H. and Pan, X. 2005. Trends in total precipitation and frequency of daily precipitation extremes over China. J. Climate. 18(7), 1096-1108.
59. Zhang, Q., Sun, P., Singh, V. and Chen, X. 2012. Spatial-temporal precipitation changes (1956-2000) and their implications for agriculture in China. Global Planet Change 82, 86-95.
60. Zhao, C., Wang, Y., Yang, Q., Fu, R., Cunnold, D. and co-authors. 2010a. Impact of East Asian summer monsoon on the air quality over China: view from space. J. Geophys. Res. 115, D09301.
61. Zhao, P., Zhu, Y. and Zhang, Q. 2010b. A summer weather index in the East Asian pressure field and associated atmospheric circulation and rainfall. Int. J. Climatol. 32, 375-386.
62. Zong, Y. and Chen, X. 2000. The 1998 flood on the Yangtze, China. Nat. Hazards. 22(2), 165-184.