Subseasonal prediction of wintertime north american surface air temperature during strong MJO events

Monthly Weather Review

Volumn 141, Issue 8, 2013, Pages 2897-2909

  Rodney, Marcel ^a   Lin, Hai ^b   Derome, Jacques ^a  

^a MCGILL UNIVERSITY   (Canada)

^b ENVIRONMENT CANADA   (Canada)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DIABATIC HEATING; GREAT LAKES REGIONS; MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION; MULTI-VARIABLE LINEAR REGRESSION; NORTH AMERICAN; SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES; TROPICAL INDIAN OCEAN; WESTERN PACIFIC;

CLIMATOLOGY; LINEAR REGRESSION;

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE;

AIR TEMPERATURE; AIR-SEA INTERACTION; CLIMATE MODELING; DIABATIC PROCESS; HEATING; MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION; MULTIPLE REGRESSION; MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS; PREDICTION; SEASONAL VARIATION; WEATHER FORECASTING; WINTER;

INDIAN OCEAN; INDIAN OCEAN (TROPICAL); NORTH AMERICA; PACIFIC OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN (WEST);

EID: 84881301984     PISSN: 00270644     EISSN: 15200493     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-12-00221.1     Document Type: Article

References (28)

1. Camargo, S. J., A. W. Robertson, A. G. Barnston, and M. Ghil, 2008: Clustering of eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone tracks: ENSO and MJO effects. Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 9, Q06V05, doi:10.1029/2007GC001861.
2. Cassou, C., 2008: Intraseasonal interaction between the Madden- Julian Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Nature, 455, 523-527, doi:10.1038/nature07286.
3. Derome, J., G. Brunet, A. Plante, N. Gagnon, G. J. Boer, F. W. Zwiers, S. J. Lambert, and H. Ritchie, 2001: Seasonal predictions based on two dynamical models. Atmos.-Ocean, 39, 485-501.
4. Donald, A., H. Meinke, B. Power, A. H. N. Maia, M. C. Wheeler, N. White, R. C. Stone, and J. Ribbe, 2006: Near-global impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on rainfall. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L09704, doi:10.1029/2005GL025155.
5. Ferranti, L., T. N. Palmer, F. Molteni, and E. Klinker, 1990: Tropical-extratropical interaction associated with the 30-60 day oscillation and its impact on medium and extended range prediction. J. Atmos. Sci., 47, 2177-2199.
6. Goswami, B. N., 2005: South Asian monsoon. Intraseasonal Variability in the Atmosphere-Ocean Climate System, W. K. M. Lau and D. E. Waliser, Eds., Springer, 19-61.
7. Gottschalck, J., and Coauthors, 2010: A framework for assessing operational Madden-Julian oscillation forecasts: A CLIVAR MJO working group project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91, 1247-1258.
8. Hendon, H. H., and B. Liebmann, 1990: The intraseasonal (30-50 day) oscillation of the Australian summer monsoon. J. Atmos. Sci., 47, 2909-2923.
9. Hendon, H. H., and B. Liebmann, M. Newman, and J. D. Glick, 2000: Medium-range forecast errors associated with active episodes of the Madden- Julian oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 69-86.
10. Higgins, R. W., and W. Shi, 2001: Intercomparison of the principal modes of interannual and intraseasonal variability of the North American monsoon system. J. Climate, 14, 403-417.
11. Hoskins, B. J., and D. J. Karoly, 1981: The steady linear response of a spherical atmosphere to thermal and orographic forcing. J. Atmos. Sci., 38, 1179-1196.
12. Jiang, X., D. E. Waliser, M. C. Wheeler, C. Jones, M. Lee, and S. D. Schubert, 2008: Assessing the skill of an all-season statistical forecast model for the Madden-Julian oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 1940-1956.
13. Jin, F., and B. J. Hoskins, 1995: The direct response to tropical heating in a baroclinic atmosphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 307-319.
14. Jones, C., and L. M. V. Carvalho, 2002: Active and break phases in the South American monsoon system. J. Climate, 15, 905-914.
15. Kalnay, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437-471.
16. Kang, I.-S., and H.-M. Kim, 2010: Assessment of MJO predictability for boreal winter with various statistical and dynamical models. J. Climate, 23, 2368-2378.
17. Kessler, W. S., 2001: EOF representations of the Madden-Julian oscillation and its connection with ENSO. J. Climate, 14, 3055- 3061.
18. Kessler, W. S., and R. Kleeman, 2000: Rectification of the Madden-Julian Oscillation into the ENSO cycle. J. Climate, 13, 3560-3575.
19. Kharin, V. V., Q. Teng, F. W. Zwiers, G. J. Boer, J. Derome, and J. S. Fontecilla, 2009: Skill assessment of seasonal hindcasts from the Canadian Historical Forecast Project. Atmos.- Ocean, 47, 204-223.
20. Lau, K. M., and P. H. Chan, 1986: Aspects of the 40-50 day oscillation during the northern summer as inferred from outgoing longwave radiation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 114, 1354-1367.
21. Liebmann, B., and D. L. Hartmann, 1984: An observational study of tropical-midlatitude interaction on intraseasonal time scales during winter. J. Atmos. Sci., 41, 3333-3350.
22. Lin, H., and G. Brunet, 2009: The influence of the Madden-Julian oscillation on Canadian wintertime surface air temperature. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 2250-2262.
23. Lin, H., G. Brunet, and J. Derome, 2007: The nonlinear transient atmospheric response to tropical forcing. J. Climate, 20, 5642- 5665.
24. Lin, H., G. Brunet, and J. Derome, 2009: An observed connection between the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Madden-Julian oscillation. J. Climate, 22, 364-380.
25. Lin, H., G. Brunet, and R. Mo, 2010: Impact of the Madden-Julian oscillation on wintertime precipitation in Canada. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 3822-3839.
26. Lorenz, E. N., 1965: A study of the predictability of a 28-variable atmospheric model. Tellus, 17, 321-333.
27. Lorenz, E. N., 1982: Atmospheric predictability experiments with a large numerical-model. Tellus, 34, 505-513.
28. Madden, R. A., and P. R. Julian, 1971: Detection of a 40-50 day oscillation in the zonal wind in the tropical Pacific. J. Atmos. Sci., 28, 702-708.