A retrospective analysis of pan Arctic permafrost using the JULES land surface model

Climate Dynamics

Volumn 41, Issue 3-4, 2013, Pages 1025-1038

  Burke, Eleanor J ^a   Dankers, Rutger ^a   Jones, Chris D ^a   Wiltshire, Andrew J ^a  

^a MET OFFICE   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Land surface model; Pan Arctic; Permafrost degradation; Permafrost extent

Indexed keywords

ACTIVE LAYER; ATMOSPHERIC FORCING; CLIMATE MODELING; DEGRADATION; HADLEY CELL; LAND SURFACE; PERMAFROST; SOIL TEMPERATURE; TWENTIETH CENTURY;

ARCTIC; RUSSIAN FEDERATION;

EID: 84881022876     PISSN: 09307575     EISSN: 14320894     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1648-x     Document Type: Article

References (55)

1. Best MJ, Pryor M, Clark DB, Rooney GG, Essery RLH, Ménard CB, Edwards JM, Hendry MA, Porson A, Gedney N, Mercado LM, Sitch S, Blyth EM, Boucher O, Cox PM, Grimmond CSB, Harding RJ (2011) The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), model description-Part 1: energy and water fluxes. Geosci Model Dev 4: 677-699. doi: 10. 5194/gmd-4-677-2011.
2. Blyth E, Gash J, Lloyd A, Pryor M, Weedon GP, Shuttleworth WJ (2010) Evaluating the JULES land surface model energy fluxes using FLUXNET data. J Hydrometeor 11: 509-519. doi: 10. 1175/2009JHM1183. 1.
3. Brown RD, Robinson DA (2011) Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover variability and change over 1922-2010 including an assessment of uncertainty. The Cryosphere 5: 219-229. doi: 10. 5194/tc-5-219-2011.
4. Brown J, Ferrians OJ Jr, Heginbottom JA, Melnikov ES (1998) Revised February 2001, circum-arctic map of permafrost and ground-ice conditions. National Snow and Ice Data Center/World Data Center for Glaciology, Digital Media, Boulder, CO.
5. Brown J, Nelson FE, Hinkel KM (2000) The circumpolar active layer monitoring (CALM) program: research designs and initial results. Polar Geogr 3: 165-258.
6. Brown R, Derksen C, Wang L (2010) A multi-data set analysis of variability and change in Arctic spring snow cover extent, 1967-2008. J Geophys Res 115: D16111. doi: 10. 1029/2010JD013975.
7. Burke EJ, Hartley IP, Jones CD (2012) Uncertainties in the global temperature change caused by carbon release from permafrost thawing. Cryosphere Discuss 6: 1367-1404. doi: 10. 5194/tcd-6-1367-2012.
8. Callaghan TV, Bergholm F, Christensen TR, Jonasson C, Kokfelt U, Johansson M (2010) A new climate era in the sub-Arctic: accelerating climate changes and multiple impacts. Geophys Res Lett 37: L14705. doi: 10. 1029/2009GL042064.
9. Clark DB, Mercado LM, Sitch S, Jones CD, Gedney N, Best MJ, Pryor M, Rooney GG, Essery RLH, Blyth E, Boucher O, Harding RJ, Cox PM (2011) The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), model description-Part 2: carbon fluxes and vegetation. Geosci Model Dev 4: 701-722. doi: 10. 5194/gmd-4-701-2011.
10. Cosby BJ, Hornberger GM, Clapp RB, Ginn TR (1984) A Statistical Exploration of the Relationships of Soil Moisture Characteristics to the Physical Properties of Soils. Water Resour Res 20(6): 682-690. doi: 10. 1029/WR020i006p00682.
11. Cox PM, Betts RA, Bunton CB, Essery RLH, Rowntree PR, Smith J (1999) The impact of new land surface physics on the GCM simulation of climate and climate sensitivity. Clim Dynam 15: 183-203.
12. Dankers R, Burke EJ, Price J (2011) Simulation of permafrost and seasonal thaw depth in the JULES land surface scheme. The Cryosphere 5: 773-790. doi: 10. 5194/tc-5-773-2011.
13. Dharssi I, Vidale P, Verhoef A, Macpherson B, Jones C, Best M (2009) New soil physical properties implemented in the Unified Model at PS18. Meteorology Research and Development technical report 528, Met. Office., UK. http://www. metoffice. gov. uk/learning/library/publications/science/weather-science. Accessed 18 July 2011.
14. Etzelmüller B, Schuler TV, Isaksen K, Christiansen HH, Farbrot H, Benestad R (2011) Modelling the temperature evolution of Svalbard permafrost during the 20th and 21st century. The Cryosphere 5: 67-79. doi: 10. 5194/tc-5-67-2011.
15. Forbes BC, Fauria MM, Zetterberg P (2010) Russian Arctic warming and 'greening' are closely tracked by tundra shrub willows. Glob Change Biol 16: 1542-1554. doi: 10. 1111/j. 1365-2486. 2009. 02047. x.
16. Frauenfeld OW, Zhang T, Barry RG, Gilichinsky D (2004) Interdecadal changes in seasonal freeze and thaw depths in Russia. J Geophys Res 109: D05101. doi: 10. 1029/2003JD004245.
17. Gilichinsky D, Barry R, Bykhovets S, Sorokovikov V, Zhang T, Zudin S, Fedorov-Davydov D (1998) A century of temperature observations of soil climate: methods of analysis and long-term trends. In: Proceedings of the 7th international conference on permafrost, pp 23-27.
18. Haddeland I, Clark DB, Franssen W, Ludwig F, Voß F, Arnell NW, Bertrand N, Best M, Folwell S, Gerten D, Gomes S, Gosling SN, Hagemann S, Hanasaki N, Harding R, Heinke J, Kabat P, Koirala S, Oki T, Polcher J, Stacke T, Viterbo P, Weedon GP, Yeh P (2011) Multimodel estimate of the global terrestrial water balance: setup and first results. J Hydrometeor 12: 869-884. doi: 10. 1175/2011JHM1324. 1.
19. Hinzman LD et al (2005) Evidence and implications of recent climate change in Northern Alaska and other Arctic regions. Clim Change 72: 251-298. doi: 10. 1007/s10584-005-5352-2.
20. Isaksen K, Sollid JL, Holmlund P, Harris C (2007) Recent warming of mountain permafrost in Svalbard and Scandinavia. J Geophys Res-Earth 112(F2): F02S04. doi: 10. 1029/2006JF000522.
21. Jorgenson MT, Racine CH, Walters JC, Osterkamp TE (2001) Permafrost degradation and ecological changes associated with a warming climate in central Alaska. Clim Change 48: 551-579.
22. Koven CD, Ringeval B, Friedlingstein P, Ciais P, Cadule P, Khvorostyanov D, Krinner G, Tarnocai C (2011) Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming. PNAS 108: 14769-14774. doi: 10. 1073/pnas. 1103910108.
23. Lawrence DM, Slater AG (2010) The contribution of snow condition trends to future ground climate. Clim Dyn 34: 969-981. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-009-0537-4.
24. Lawrence DM, Slater AG, Romanovsky VE, Nicolsky DJ (2008) Sensitivity of a model projection of near-surface permafrost degradation to soil column depth and representation of soil organic matter. J Geophys Res 113: F02011. doi: 10. 1029/2007JF000883.
25. Lemke P, Ren J, Alley RB, Allison I, Carrasco J, Flato G, Fujii Y, Kaser G, Mote P, Thomas RH, Zhang T (2007) Observations: changes in snow, ice and frozen ground. In: Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H. L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY.
26. Mitchell TD, Jones PD (2005) An improved method of constructing a database of 736 monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. Int J Clim 25(737): 693-712.
27. Nelson FE (ed) (2004) Circumpolar active layer monitoring (CALM) Workshop. Permaf Periglac Process 15(2): 99-188.
28. Nelson FE, Anisimov OA, Shiklomanov NI (2001) Subsidence risk from thawing permafrost. Nature 410: 889-890.
29. Niu G-Y, Yang Z-L (2007) An observation-based formulation of snow cover fraction and its evaluation over large North American river basins J Geophys Res 112: D21101. doi: 10. 1029/2007JD008674.
30. O'Connor FM, Boucher O, Gedney N, Jones CD, Folberth GA, Coppell R, Friedlingstein P, Collins WJ, Chappellaz J, Ridley J, Johnson CE (2010) Possible role of wetlands, permafrost and methane hydrates in the methane cycle under future climate change: a review. Rev Geophys 48: RG4005.
31. Oelke C, Zhang T, Serreze M (2004) Modeling evidence for recent warming of the Arctic soil thermal regime. Geophys Res Lett 31: L07208. doi: 10. 1029/2003GL019300.
32. Osterkamp TE (2007) Characteristics of the recent warming of permafrost in Alaska. J Geophys Res 112: F02S02. doi: 10. 1029/2006JF000578.
33. Qian B, Gregorich EG, Gameda S, Hopkins DW, Wang XL (2011) Observed soil temperature trends associated with climate change in Canada. J Geophys Res 116: D02106. doi: 10. 1029/2010JD015012.
34. Richter-Menge J, Jeffries MO, Overland JE (eds) (2011) Arctic report card 2011. http://www. arctic. noaa. gov/reportcard.
35. Riseborough D, Shiklomanov N, Etzelmüller B, Gruber S, Marchenko S (2008) Recent advances in permafrost modelling. Permafr Periglac 19: 137-156. doi: 10. 1002/ppp. 615.
36. Robinson DA, Dewey KF, Heim R Jr (1993) Global snow cover monitoring: an update. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 74: 1689-1696.
37. Roesch A, Wild M, Gilgen H, Ohmura A (2001) A new snow cover fraction parameterization for the ECHAM4 GCM. Clim Dyn 17(12): 933-946.
38. Rutter N, Essery R, Pomeroy J, Altimir N, Andreadis K, Baker I, Barr A, Bartlett P, Boone A, Deng H, Douville H, Dutra E, Elder K, Ellis C, Feng X, Gelfan A, Goodbody A, Gusev Y, Gustafsson D, Hellström R, Hirabayashi Y, Hirota T, Jonas T, Koren V, Kuragina A, Lettenmaier D, Li W-P, Luce C, Martin E, Nasonova O, Pumpanen J, Pyles RD, Samuelsson P, Sandells M, Schädler G, Shmakin A, Smirnova TG, Stähli M, Stöckli R, Strasser U, Su H, Suzuki K, Takata K, Tanaka K, Thompson E, Vesala T, Viterbo P, Wiltshire A, Xia K, Xue Y, Yamazaki T (2009) Evaluation of forest snow processes models (SnowMIP2). J Geophys Res 114: D06111. doi: 10. 1029/2008JD011063.
39. Schaefer K, Zhang T, Bruhwiler L, Bareett AP (2011) Amount and timing of permafrost carbon release in response to climate warming. Tellus B 63: 165-180. doi: 10. 1111/j. 1600-0889. 2011. 00527. x.
40. Schuur EAG, Bockheim J, Canadell JG, Euskirchen E, Field CB, Goryachkin SV, Hagemann S, Kuhry P, Lafleur PM, Lee H, Mazhitova G, Nelson FE, Rinke A, Romanovsky VE, Shiklomanov N, Tarnocai C, Venevsky S, Vogel JG, Zimov SA (2008) Vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change: implications for the global carbon cycle. Bioscience 58: 701-714. doi: 10. 1641/B580807.
41. Sheffield J, Goteti G, Wood EF (2006) Development of a high-resolution global dataset of meteorological forcings for land surface modelling. J Clim 19: 3088-3111.
42. Shiklomanov NI, Streletskiy DA, Nelson FE, Hollister RD, Romanovsky VE, Tweedie CE, Bockheim JG, Brown J (2010) Decadal variations of active-layer thickness in moisture-controlled landscapes, Barrow, Alaska. J Geophys Res 115: G00I04. doi: 10. 1029/2009JG001248.
43. Smith SL, Romanovsky VE, Lewkowicz AG, Burn CR, Allard M, Clow GD, Yoshikawa K, Throop J (2010) Thermal state of permafrost in North America: a contribution to the international polar year. Permafr Periglac Process 21: 117-135. doi: 10. 1002/ppp. 690.
44. Stendel M, Christensen JH (2002) Impact of global warming on permafrost conditions in a coupled GCM. Geophys Res Lett 29: 1632.
45. Takala M, Luojus K, Pulliainen J, Derksen C, Lemmetyinen J, Karna J-P, Koskinen J, Bojkov B (2011) Estimating northern hemisphere snow water equivalent for climate research through assimilation of space-borne radiometer data and ground-based measurements. Remote Sens Environ 115: 3517-3529.
46. Walter KM, Zimov SA, Chanton JP, Verbyla D, Chapin FS III (2006) Methane bubbling from Siberian thaw lakes as a positive feedback to climate warming. Nature 443: 71-75.
47. Weedon GP et al (2011) Creation of the WATCH forcing data and its use to assess global and regional reference crop evaporation over land during the twentieth century. J Hydrometeor 12: 823-848. doi: 10. 1175/2011JHM1369. 1.
48. Wilson MF, Henderson-Sellers A (1985) A global archive of land cover and soils data for use in general circulation climate models. J Climatol 5: 119-143.
49. Wiltshire AJ (2006) Modelling the surface energetics of patchy Arctic tundra snowcover. PhD thesis, University of Durham.
50. Wu Q, Zhang T (2010) Changes in active layer thickness over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau from 1995 to 2007. J Geophys Res 115: D09107. doi: 10. 1029/2009JD012974.
51. Yang D (1999) An improved precipitation climatology for the Arctic Ocean. Geophys Res Lett 26: 1625-1628.
52. Zhang T (2005) Influence of the seasonal snow cover on the ground thermal regime: an overview. Rev Geophys 43: RG4002. doi: 10. 1029/2004RG000157.
53. Zhang T, Barry RG, Knowles K, Heginbottom JA, Brown J (1999) Statistics and characteristics of permafrost and ground-ice distribution in the Northern Hemisphere. Polar Geogr 23(2): 132-154.
54. Zhang T, Barry RG, Knowles K, Ling F, Armstrong RL (2003) Distribution of seasonally and perennially frozen ground in the Northern Hemisphere. In: Phillips M, Springman SM, Arenson LU (eds) Permafrost. Swets & Zeitlinger, Lisse, pp 1289-1294.
55. Zhang Y, Chen W, Riseborough DW (2006) Temporal and spatial changes of permafrost in Canada since the end of the Little Ice Age. J Geophys Res 111: D22103. doi: 10. 1029/2006JD007284.