An ecosystem modelling framework for incorporating climate regime shifts into fisheries management

Progress in Oceanography

Volumn 115, Issue , 2013, Pages 53-64

  Fu, Caihong ^a   Perry, R Ian ^a   Shin, Yunne Jai ^c,d   Schweigert, Jake ^a   Liu, Huizhu ^b  

^a PACIFIC BIOLOGICAL STATION   (Canada)

^b VANCOUVER ISLAND UNIVERSITY   (Canada)

^c UNIVERSITÉ MONTPELLIER 2   (France)

^d UNIVERSITY OF CAPE TOWN   (South Africa)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE REGIME SHIFT; CLIMATE VARIABILITY; ECOSYSTEM MODELLING; FISHERIES MANAGEMENT; MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES; PERFORMANCE INDICATORS; SPECIES INTERACTIONS; TROPHIC INTERACTIONS;

BENCHMARKING; CLIMATE MODELS; ECOSYSTEMS;

FISHERIES;

CLIMATE VARIATION; CLUPEOID; ECOSYSTEM APPROACH; ECOSYSTEM MODELING; EXPLOITATION; FISHERY MANAGEMENT; FISHERY POLICY; FISHING EFFORT; INDIVIDUAL-BASED MODEL; INTERSPECIFIC VARIATION; LIFE HISTORY TRAIT; MORTALITY; MULTISPECIES FISHERY; TRADE-OFF; TROPHIC LEVEL; YIELD;

CLUPEA PALLASI; CLUPEIDAE;

EID: 84880943695     PISSN: 00796611     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.pocean.2013.03.003     Document Type: Article

References (66)

1. A'mar T.Z., Punt A.E., Dorn M.W. The impact of regime shifts on the performance of management strategies for the Gulf of Alaska walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) fishery. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 2009, 66:2222-2242.
2. Barange M., Cheung W.W.L., Merino G., Perry R.I. Modelling the potential impacts of climate change and human activities on the sustainability of marine resources. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 2010, 2:1-8.
3. Beamish R.J., Sweeting R.M. Spiny dogfish in the pelagic waters of the Strait of Georgia and Puget Sound. Biology and Management of Dogfish Sharks 2009, 101-119. American Fisheries Society, Bethesda, Maryland. V. Gallucci, G.A. McFarlane, G.C. Bargmann (Eds.).
4. Beamish R.J., Benson A.J., Sweeting R.M., Neville C.M. Regimes and the history of the major fisheries off Canada's west coast. Progress in Oceanography 2004, 60:355-385.
5. Blanchard F., Boucher J. Temporal variability of total biomass in harvested communities of demersal fishes. Fisheries Research 2001, 49:283-293.
6. Bundy A., Fanning P., Zwanenburg K.C.T. Balancing exploitation and conservation of the eastern Scotian Shelf ecosystem: application of a 4D ecosystem exploitation index. ICES Journal of Marine Science 2005, 62:503-510.
7. Cass, A.J., Beamish, R.J., McFarlane, G.A., 1990. Lingcod (Ophiodon elongatus). Canadian Special Publication of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 109, Fisheries and Oceans, Ottawa.
8. Cheung W.W.L., Dunne J., Sarmiento J., Pauly D. Integrating eco-physiology and plankton dynamics into projected changes in maximum fisheries catch potential under climate change. ICES Journal of Marine Science 2011, 68:1008-1018.
9. Christensen V., Walters C. Ecopath with Ecosim: methods, capabilities and limitations. Ecological Modelling 2004, 172:109-139.
10. deYoung B., Barange M., Beaugrand G., Harris R., Perry R.I., Scheffer M., Werner F. Regime shifts in marine ecosystems: detection, prediction and management. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 2008, 23:402-409.
11. Fu C., Shin Y.-J., Perry R.I., King J., Liu H. Exploring climate and fishing impacts in an ecosystem framework. Global Progress in Ecosystem-based Fisheries Management 2012, 65-85. Alaska Sea Grant, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks. G.H. Kruse, H.I. Browman, K.L. Cochrane, D. Evans, G.S. Jamieson, P.A. Livingston, D. Woodby, C.I. Zhang (Eds.).
12. Fulton E.A. Approaches to end-to-end ecosystem models. Journal of Marine Systems 2010, 81:171-183.
13. Fulton E.A., Fuller M., Smith A.D.M., Punt A.E. Ecological indicators of the ecosystem effects of fishing: final report. AFMA Final Research Report 2004, R99(1546):239.
14. Fulton E.A., Link J., Kaplan I.C., Johnson P., Savina-Rolland M., Ainsworth C., Horne P., Gorton R., Gamble R.J., Smith T., Smith D. Lessons in modelling and management of marine ecosystems: the Atlantis experience. Fish and Fisheries 2011, 2:171-188.
15. Gamble R.J., Link J.S. Analyzing the tradeoffs among ecological and fishing effects on an example fish community: a multispecies (fisheries) production model. Ecololgical Modelling 2009, 220:2570-2582.
16. Garcia, S.M., Kolding, J., Rice, J., Rochet, M.-J., Zhou, S., Arimoto, T., Beyer, J., Borges, L., Bundy, A., Dunn, D., Graham, N., Hall, M., Heino, M., Law, R., Makino, M., Rijnsdorp, A.D., Simard, F., Smith, A.D.M., Symons, D., 2011. Selective Fishing and Balanced Harvest in Relation to Fisheries and Ecosystem Sustainability. Report of a Scientific Workshop Organized by the IUCN-CEM Fisheries Expert Group (FEG) and the European Bureau for Conservation and Development (EBCD) in Nagoya (Japan), 14-16 October 2010. Gland, Switzerland and Brussels, Belgium: IUCN and EBCD, pp. iv+33.
17. Gedalof Z., Smith D.J. Interdecadal climate variability and regime-scale shifts in Pacific North America. Geophysical Research Letters 2001, 28:1515-1518.
18. Haltuch M.A., Punt A.E. The promises and pitfalls of including decadal-scale climate forcing of recruitment in groundfish stock assessment. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 2011, 68(5):912-926.
19. Hare S.R., Mantua N.J. Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989. Progress in Oceanography 2000, 47:103-145.
20. Hobson L.A., McQuoid M.R. Pelagic diatom assemblages are good indicators of mixed water intrusions into Saanich Inlet, a stratified fjord in Vancouver Island. Marine Geology 2001, 174:125-138.
21. Hsieh C.-H., Reiss C.S., Hunter J.R., Beddington J.R., May R.M., Sugihara G. Fishing elevates variability in the abundance of exploited species. Nature 2006, 443:859-862.
22. Hughes L. Biological consequences of global warming: is the signal already apparent? Trends in Ecology and. Evolution 2000, 15:56-61.
23. Johannessen S., Macdonald R. Effects of local and global change on an inland sea: the Strait of Georgia, British Columbia, Canada. Climate Research 2009, 40:1-21.
24. King J.R., McFarlane G.A. A framework for incorporating climate regime shifts into the management of marine resources. Fisheries Management and Ecology 2006, 13:93-102.
25. King J.R., McFarlane G.A. Shift in the size-at-age of the Strait of Georgia population of Pacific hake (Merluccius productus). CCOFI Report 2006, 7:111-118.
26. Lees K., Pitois S., Scott C., Frid C., Mackinson S. Characterizing regime shifts in the marine environment. Fish and Fisheries 2006, 7:104-127.
27. Li L., Ainsworth C., Pitcher T. Presence of harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) may increase exploitable fish biomass in the Strait of Georgia. Progress in Oceanography 2010, 87:235-241.
28. Li, L., Mackas, D., Hunt, B., Schweigert, J., Pakhomov, E., Perry, R.I., Galbraith, M., 2013. Zooplankton communities in the Strait of Georgia, British Columbia, track large-scale climate forcing over the Pacific ocean. Progress in Oceanography 115, 90-102.
29. Link J.S. Ecological considerations in fisheries management: when does it matter?. Fisheries 2002, 27(4):10-17.
30. Logan, G., de la Mare, W., King, J., Haggarty, D., 2005. Management Framework for Strait of Georgia Lingcod. Can. Sci. Ad. Sec. Res. Doc. 2005/048.
31. Mackas, D.L., Galbraith, M., Faust, D., Masson, D., Shaw, W., Romaine, S., Trudel, M., Dower, J., Campbell, R., Sastri, A., El-Sabaawi, R., 2013. Zooplankton time series from the Strait of Georgia: results from year-round sampling at deep water locations, 1990-2010. Progress in Oceanography 115, 129-159.
32. Mantua N.J., Hare S.R., Zhang Y., Wallace J.M., Francis R.C. A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 1997, 78:1069-1079.
33. Masson D., Cummins P. Temperature trends and interannual variability in the Strait of Georgia, British Columbia. Continental Shelf Research 2007, 27:634-649.
34. McCarty J.P. Ecological consequences of recent climate change. Conservation Biology 2001, 15:320-331.
35. McFarlane G.A., Beamish R.J. Biology and Fishery of Pacific hake (Merluccius productus) in the Strait of Georgia. Marine Fisheries Review 1985, 47(2):23-34.
36. McFarlane G.A., King J.R., Beamish R.J. Have there been recent changes in climate? Ask the fish. Progress in Oceanography 2000, 47:147-169.
37. Olesiuk P.F. Annual prey consumption by harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) in the Strait of Georgia, British Columbia. Fishery Bulletin 1993, 91:491-515.
38. Parma A.M., Deriso R.B. Experimental harvesting of cyclic stocks in the face of alternative recruitment hypotheses. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 1990, 47:595-610.
39. Perry, R.I., 2013. An integrated analysis of the marine social-ecological system of the Strait of Georgia, Canada, over the past four decades, and development of a regime shift index. Progress in Oceanography 115, 14-27.
40. Perry, R.I., Masson, D., Preikshot, D., Araujo, H.A., 2012. A Synthesis of the Outcomes from the Strait of Georgia Ecosystem Research Initiative, and Their Ecosystem-based Management and Policy Implications. DFO Can. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2012/P59, vi+xx p.
41. Pikitch E.K., Santora C., Babcock E.A., Bakun A., Bonfil R., Conover D.O., Dayton P., Doukakis P., Fluharty D., Heneman B., Houde E.D., Link J., Livingston P., Mangel M., McAllister M., Pope J., Sainsbury K.J. Ecosystem-based fishery management. Science 2004, 305:346-347.
42. Plagányi, E.E., 2007. Models for an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries. FAO Fisheries Technical Paper 477, Rome, p. 108.
43. Polovina J.J. Climate variation, regime shifts, and implications for sustainable fisheries. Bulletin of Marine Science 2005, 76:233-244.
44. Preikshot, D., Neville, C.M., Beamish, R.J., 2012. Data and Parameters Used in a Strait of Georgia Ecosystem Model. Canadian Technical Report of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 3005, viii+58p.
45. Punt A.E. The impact of climate change on the performance of rebuilding strategies for overfished groundfish species on the U.S. west coast. Fish and Fisheries 2011, 109(2-3):320-329.
46. Punt A.E., Ralston S.V. Management strategy evaluation of rebuilding revision rules for overfished rockfish species. Biology, Assessment and Management of North Pacific Rockfishes. Alaska Sea Grant College Program 2007, 329-351. University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, USA. J. Heifetz, J. DiCosimo, A.J. Gharrett, M.S. Love, V.M. O'Connell, R.D. Stankey (Eds.).
47. Richardson A.J., Schoeman D.S. Climate impact on plankton ecosystems in the Northeast Atlantic. Science 2004, 305:1609-1612.
48. Schweigert, J.F., Thompson, M., Fort, C., Hay, D.E., Therriault, T.W., Brown. L.N., 2013. Factors linking Pacific herring (Clupea pallasi) productivity and the spring plankton bloom in the Strait of Georgia, British Columbia, Canada. Progress in Oceanography 115, 103-110.
49. Schweigert J., Christensen, L.B., Haist, V., 2009. Stock Assessment for British Columbia Herring in 2008 and Forecasts of the Potential Catch in 2009. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2009/019. pp. iv+61.
50. Shaw W., McFarlane G.A. Biology, distribution and abundance of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) off the west coast of Canada. International North Pacific Fisheries Commission Bulletin 1986, 45:262-283.
51. Shin Y.-J., Cury P. Exploring fish community dynamics through size-dependent trophic interactions using a spatialized individual-based model. Aquatic Living Resoures 2001, 14:65-80.
52. Shin Y.-J., Cury P. Using an individual-based model of fish assemblages to study the response of size spectra to changes in fishing. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 2004, 61:414-431.
53. Shin Y.-J., Bundy A., Shannon L.J., Simier M., Coll M., Fulton E.A., Link J.S., Jouffre D., Ojaveer H., Mackinson S., Heymans J.J., Raid T. Can simple be useful and reliable? Using ecological indicators to represent and compare the states of marine ecosystems. ICES Journal of Marine Science 2010, 67:717-731.
54. Shin Y.-J., Shannon L.J., Bundy A., Coll M., Aydin K., Bez N., Blanchard J.L., Borges M.F., Diallo I., Diaz E., Heymans J.J., Hill L., Johannesen E., Jouffre D., Kifani S., Labrosse P., Link J.S., Mackinson S., Masski H., Möllmann C., Neira S., Ojaveer H., Mohammed Abdallahi K., Perry I., Thiao D., Yemane D., Cury P.M. Using indicators for evaluating, comparing, and communicating the ecological status of exploited marine ecosystems. 2. Setting the scene. ICES Journal of Marine Science 2010, 67:692-716.
55. Sissenwine, M., Murawski, S., 2004. Moving beyond 'intelligent thinking': advancing an ecosystem approach to fisheries. In: Perspectives on Ecosystem-based Approaches to the Management of Marine Resources. Marine Ecology Progress Series, vol. 274, pp. 269-303.
56. Stock C.A., Alexander M.A., Bond N.A., Brander K.M., Cheung W.W.L., Curchitser E.N., Delworth T.L., Dunne J.P., Griffies S.M., Haltuch M.A., Hare J.A., Hollowed A.B., Lehodey P., Levin S.A., Link J.S., Rose K.A., Rykaczewski R.R., Sarmiento J.L., Stouffer R.J., Schwing F.B., Vecchi G.A., Werner F.E. On the use of IPCC-class models to assess the impact of climate on living marine resources. Progress in Oceanography 2011, 88(1-4):1-27.
57. Stout, H.A., Gustafson, R.G., Lenarz, W.H., McCain, B.B., VanDoornik, D.M., Builder, T.L., Methot, R.D., 2001. Status Review of Pacific Herring in Puget Sound, Washington. NOAA Tech. Memo. NMFS-NWFSC-45, p. 175.
58. Thomson, R.E., 1981. Oceanography of the British Columbia Coast. Canadian Special Publication of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 56, Fisheries and Oceans, Ottawa.
59. Travers M., Shin Y.-J., Shannon L., Cury P. Simulating and testing the sensitivity of ecosystem-based indicators to fishing in the southern Benguela ecosystem. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 2006, 63:943-956.
60. Travers M., Shin Y.-J., Jennings S., Machu E., Huggett J.A., Field J.G., Cury P.M. Two-way coupling versus one-way forcing of plankton and fish models to predict ecosystem changes in the Benguela. Ecological Modelling 2009, 220:3089-3099.
61. Vasseur D.A., McCann K.S. A mechanistic approach for modeling temperature-dependent consumer-resource dynamics. American Naturalist 2005, 166:184-198.
62. Ware, D.M., McFarlane, G.A., 1995. Climate-induced changes in Pacific hake (Merluccius productus) abundance and pelagic community interactions in the Vancouver Island upwelling system. In: Beamish, R.J. (Ed.), Climate Change and Northern Fish Populations. Canadian Special Publication of Fishereis and Aquatic Sciences 121. Fisheries and Oceans, Ottawa, pp. 509-521.
63. Ware D.M., Thomson R.E. Bottom-up ecosystem trophic dynamics determine fish production in the Northeast Pacific. Science 2005, 308:1280-1284.
64. Westrheim, S.J., Foucher, R.P., 1987. Stock Assessment of Pacific Cod, (Gadus macrocephalus) in Georgia and Juan de Fuca Straits. Can. MS Rep. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 1905, p. 84.
65. Yang, M.-S., 1993. Food Habits of the Commercially Important Groundfishes in the Gulf of Alaska in 1990. NOAA Tech. Memo. NMFS-AFSC-22, p. 150.
66. Zhou S., Smith A.D.M., Punt A.E., Richardson A.J., Gibbs M., Fulton E.A., Pasco S., Bulman C., Bayliss P., Sainsbury K. Ecosystem-based fisheries management requires a change to the selective fishing philosophy. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 2010, 107:9485-9489.