Projections of a wetter sahel in the twenty-first century from global and regional models

Journal of Climate

Volumn 26, Issue 13, 2013, Pages 4664-4687

  Vizy, Edward K ^a   Cook, Kerry H ^a   Crétat, Julien ^a   Neupane, Naresh ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE PREDICTION; COUPLED MODEL INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT; LATERAL BOUNDARY CONDITIONS; REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS; SUFFICIENT CONDITIONS; SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES; SURFACE TEMPERATURES; WEST AFRICAN MONSOON;

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; CARBON DIOXIDE; CLIMATE CHANGE; FORECASTING; MOISTURE; RAIN;

CLIMATE MODELS;

ATMOSPHERIC GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE; BOUNDARY CONDITION; CARBON DIOXIDE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; COMPUTER SIMULATION; JET FLOW; MONSOON; OCEANIC GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); PRECIPITATION INTENSITY; REGIONAL CLIMATE; SURFACE TEMPERATURE; TWENTY FIRST CENTURY;

SAHARA; SAHEL [SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA];

EID: 84880659977     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00533.1     Document Type: Article

References (52)

1. Biasutti, M., and A. H. Sobel, 2009: Delayed Sahel rainfall and global seasonal cycle in a warmer climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L23707, doi:10.1029/2009GL041303.
2. Biasutti, M., and A. H. Sobel, and S. J. Camargo, 2009: The role of the Saharan low in summertime Sahel rainfall variability and change in the CMIP3 models. J. Climate, 22, 5755-5771.
3. Breugem, W.-P., W. Hazeleger, and R. J. Haarsma, 2006: Multimodel study of tropical Atlantic variability and change. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L23706, doi:10.1029/2006GL027831.
4. Chen, F., and J. Dudhia, 2001: Coupling an advanced land surface- hydrology model with the Penn State-NCAR MM5 modeling system. Part I: Model description and implementation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 569-585.
5. Chen, S.-H., and W.-Y. Sun, 2002: A one-dimensional time dependent cloud model. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 80, 99-118.
6. Cook, K. H., 2008: The mysteries of Sahel droughts. Nat. Geosci., 1, 647-648.
7. Cook, K. H., and E. K. Vizy, 2006: Coupled model simulations of the West African monsoon system: Twentieth- and twenty-first century simulations. J. Climate, 19, 3681-3703.
8. Cook, K. H., and E. K. Vizy, 2012: Impact of climate change on mid-twenty-first century growing seasons in Africa. Climate Dyn., 38, 2937-2955, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1324-1.
9. Cook, K. H., G. A. Meehl, and J. M. Arblaster, 2012: Monsoon regimes and processes in CCSM4. Part II: African and American monsoon systems. J. Climate, 25, 2609-2621.
10. Delworth, T. L., and et al., 2006: GFDL's CM2 global coupled climate models. Part I: Formulation and simulation characteristics. J. Climate, 19, 643-674.
11. Diallo, I., M. B. Sylla, F. Giorgi, A. T. Gaye, and M. Camara, 2012: Multimodel GCM-RCM ensemble-based projections of temperature and precipitation over West Africa for the early 21st century. Int. J. Geophys., 2012, 972896, doi:10.1155/2012/972896.
12. 2 climate experiments. J. Geophys. Res., 105, 14 841-14 861.
13. Druyan, L. M., 1991: The sensitivity of sub-Saharan precipitation to Atlantic SST. Climatic Change, 18, 17-36.
14. Druyan, L. M., 2011: Studies of 21st century precipitation trends over West Africa. Int. J. Climatol., 31, 1415-1424.
15. Dudhia, J., 1989: Numerical study of convection observed during the winter monsoon experiment using a mesoscale twodimensional model. J. Atmos. Sci., 46, 3077-3107.
16. Flaounas, E., S. Bastin, and S. Janicot, 2011: Regional climate modeling of the 2006 West African monsoon: Sensitivity to convection and planetary boundary layer parameterization using WRF. Climate Dyn., 36, 1083-1105, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0785-3.
17. Folland, C. K., T. N. Palmer, and D. E. Parker, 1986: Sahel rainfall and worldwide sea temperatures. Nature, 320, 602-607.
18. Fontaine, B., P. Roucou, and P. A. Monerie, 2011: Changes in the African monsoon region at medium-term time horizon using 12 AR4 coupled models under the A1B emissions scenario. Atmos. Sci. Lett., 12, 83-88.
19. Grodsky, S. A., J. A. Carton, and S. Nigam, 2003: Near surface westerly wind jet in the Atlantic ITCZ. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 2009, doi:10.1029/2003GL017867.
20. Hagos, S. M., and K. H. Cook, 2008: Ocean warming and latetwentieth- century Sahel drought and recovery. J. Climate, 21, 3797-3814.
21. Hastenrath, S., and D. Polzin, 2011: Long-term variations of circulation in the tropical Atlantic sector and Sahel rainfall. Int. J. Climatol., 31, 649-655.
22. Held, I. M., T. L. Delworth, J. Lu, K. Findell, and T. R. Knutson, 2005: Simulation of Sahel drought in the 20th and 21st centuries. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 102, 17 891-17 896.
23. Hong, S.-Y., Y. Noh, and J. Dudhia, 2006: A new vertical diffusion package with an explicit treatment of entrainment processes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 2318-2341.
24. Kain, J. S., 2004: The Kain-Fritsch convective parameterization: An update. J. Appl. Meteor., 43, 170-181.
25. Kanamitsu, M., W. Ebisuzaki, J. Woollen, S. K. Yang, J. J. Hnilo, M. Fiorino, and G. L. Potter, 2002: NCEP-DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis (R2). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83, 1631-1643.
26. Mariotti, L., E. Coppola, M. B. Sylla, F. Giorgi, and C. Piani, 2011: Regional climate model simulation of projected 21st century climate change over an all-Africa domain: Comparison analysis of nested and driving model results. J. Geophys. Res., 116, D15111, doi:10.1029/2010JD015068.
27. Meehl, G. A., and et al. 2007: Global climate projections. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, S. Solomon et al. Eds., Cambridge University Press, 747-845.
28. Mlawer, E. J., S. J. Taubman, P. D. Brown, M. J. Iacono, and S. A. Clough, 1997: Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmosphere: RRTM, a validated correlated-k model for the longwave. J. Geophys. Res., 102, 16 663-16 682.
29. Monerie, P. A., B. Fontaine, and P. Roucou, 2012: Expected future changes in the African monsoon between 2030 and 2070 using some CMIP3 and CMIP5 models under a medium-low RCP scenario. J. Geophys. Res., 117, D16111, doi:10.1029/2012JD017510.
30. Monerie, P. A., P. Roucou, and B. Fontaine, 2013: Mid-century effects of climate change on African monsoon dynamics using the A1B emission scenario. Int. J. Climatol., 33, 881-896. doi:10.1002/joc.
31. Moron, V., A. W. Robertson, M. N. Ward, and O. Ndiaye, 2008: Weather types and rainfall over Senegal. Part I: Observational analysis. J. Climate, 21, 266-287.
32. Moufouma-Okia, W., and D. P. Rowell, 2010: Impact of soil moisture initialization and lateral boundary conditions on regional climate model simulations of the West African monsoon. Climate Dyn., 35, 213-229.
33. Paeth, H., and H.-P. Thamm, 2007: Regional modeling of future African climate north of 158S including greenhouse warming and land degradation. Climatic Change, 83, 401-427.
34. Paeth, H., K. Born, R. Girmes, R. Podzun, and D. Jacob, 2009: Regional climate change in tropical and northern Africa due to greenhouse forcing and land use changes. J. Climate, 22, 114-132.
35. Paeth, H., and et al. 2011: Progress in regional downscaling of West African precipitation. Atmos. Sci. Lett., 12, 75-82.
36. Patricola, C. M., and K. H. Cook, 2007: Dynamics of the West African monsoon under mid-Holocene precessional forcing: Regional climate model simulations. J. Climate, 20, 694-716.
37. Patricola, C. M., and K. H. Cook, 2010: Northern African climate at the end of the 21st century: Integrated application of regional and global climate models. Climate Dyn., 35, 193-212.
38. Patricola, C. M., and K. H. Cook, 2011: Sub-Saharan northern African climate at the end of the twenty-first century: Forcing factors and climate change processes. Climate Dyn., 37, 1165-1188.
39. Patricola, C. M., and K. H. Cook, 2013a: Mid-twenty-first century warm season climate change in the central United States. Part I: Regional and global model predictions. Climate Dyn., 40, 551-568.
40. Patricola, C. M., and K. H. Cook, 2013b: Mid-twenty-first century warm season climate change in the central United States. Part II: Climate change processes. Climate Dyn., 40, 569-583.
41. Pu, B., and K. H. Cook, 2010: Dynamics of the West African westerly jet. J. Climate, 23, 6263-6276.
42. Pu, B., and K. H. Cook, 2012: Role of the West African westerly jet in Sahel rainfall variations. J. Climate, 25, 2880-2896.
43. Richter, I., and S.-P. Xie, 2008: On the origin of equatorial Atlantic biases in coupled general circulation models. Climate Dyn., 31, 587-598.
44. Rowell, D. P., C. K. Folland, K. Maskell, and M. N. Ward, 1995: Variability of summer rainfall over tropical North Africa (1906-92): Observations and modeling. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 121, 669-704.
45. Seth, A., and M. Rojas, 2003: Simulation and sensitivity in a nested modeling system for tropical South America. Part I: Reanalyses boundary forcing. J. Climate, 16, 2437-2453.
46. Skamarock, W. C., J. B. Klemp, J. Dudhia, D. O. Gill, D. M. Barker, W. Wang, and J. G. Powers, 2005:Adescription of the Advanced Research WRF version 2. NCAR/TN-4081STR, 88 pp. [Available from NCAR Information Services, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307.]
47. Skinner, C. B., M. Ashfaq, and N. S. Diffenbaugh, 2012: Influence of twenty-first-century atmospheric and sea surface temperature forcing on West African climate. J. Climate, 25, 527-542.
48. Vizy, E. K., and K. H. Cook, 2001:Mechanisms by which Gulf of Guinea and eastern North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies can influence African rainfall. J. Climate, 14, 795-821.
49. Vizy, E. K., and K. H. Cook, 2002: Development and application of a mesoscale climate model for the tropics: Influence of sea surface temperature anomalies on the West African monsoon. J. Geophys. Res., 107, 4023, doi:10.1029/2001JD000686.
50. Vizy, E. K., and K. H. Cook, 2012: Mid-twenty-first-century changes in extreme events over northern and tropical Africa. J. Climate, 25, 5748-5767.
51. Wang, G., and C. A. Alo, 2012: Changes in precipitation seasonality in West Africa predicted by RegCM3 and the impact of dynamic vegetation feedback. Int. J. Geophys., 2012, 597205, doi:10.1155/2012/597205.
52. Ward, M. N., 1998: Diagnosis and short-lead time prediction of summer rainfall in tropical North Africa at interannual and multidecadal timescales. J. Climate, 11, 3167-3191.