African tropical rainforest net carbon dioxide fluxes in the twentieth century

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

Volumn 368, Issue 1625, 2013, Pages

  Fisher, Joshua B ^a   Sikka, Munish ^a   Sitch, Stephen ^b   Ciais, Philippe ^c   Poulter, Benjamin ^c   Galbraith, David ^d   Lee, Jung Eun ^a   Huntingford, Chris ^e   Viovy, Nicolas ^c   Zeng, Ning ^f   Ahlström, Anders ^g   Lomas, Mark R ^h   Levy, Peter E ^e   Frankenberg, Christian ^a   Saatchi, Sassan ^a   Malhi, Yadvinder ⁱ  

^a CALIFORNIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF EXETER   (United Kingdom)

^c LABORATOIRE DES SCIENCES DU CLIMAT ET DE L ENVIRONNEMENT   (France)

^d UNIVERSITY OF LEEDS   (United Kingdom)

^e CENTRE FOR ECOLOGY AND HYDROLOGY   (United Kingdom)

^f Bldg 142   (United States)

^g LUND UNIVERSITY   (Sweden)

^h UNIVERSITY OF SHEFFIELD   (United Kingdom)

ⁱ UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Africa; Carbon; Congo; Rainforest; Tropic; Uncertainty

Indexed keywords

BIOME; CARBON DIOXIDE; CARBON FLUX; CLIMATE CHANGE; CONCENTRATION (COMPOSITION); ESTIMATION METHOD; GLOBAL CLIMATE; LAND USE CHANGE; RAINFOREST; TROPICAL FOREST; TWENTIETH CENTURY; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

AFRICA;

CARBON DIOXIDE; RAIN;

AFRICA; BIOLOGICAL MODEL; CARBON SEQUESTRATION; CLIMATE CHANGE; HISTORY; METABOLISM; TREE; TROPIC CLIMATE;

AFRICA; CARBON DIOXIDE; CARBON SEQUESTRATION; CLIMATE CHANGE; HISTORY, 20TH CENTURY; HISTORY, 21ST CENTURY; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; RAIN; TREES; TROPICAL CLIMATE;

EID: 84880618844     PISSN: 09628436     EISSN: 14712970     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2012.0376     Document Type: Article

References (77)

1. Zelazowski P, Malhi Y, Huntingford C, Sitch S, Fisher JB. 2011 Changes in the potential distribution of humid tropical forests on a warmer planet. Phil. Trans. Soc. A 369, 137-160. (doi:10.1098/rsta. 2010.0238)
2. Mayaux P, Holmgren P, Achard F, Eva H, Stibig H-J, Branthomme A. 2005 Tropical forest cover change in the 1990s and options for future monitoring. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 360, 373-384. (doi:10.1098/rstb. 2004.1590)
3. Mayaux P, Bartholomé E, Fritz S, Belward A. 2004 A new land-cover map of Africa for the year 2000. J. Biogeogr. 31, 861-877. (doi:10.1111/j.1365-2699.2004.01073.x)
4. Bartholomé E, Belward AS. 2005 GLC2000: a new approach to global land cover mapping from Earth observation data. Int. J. Remote Sens. 26, 1959-1977. (doi:10.1080/01431160412 331291297)
5. FAO. 2010 Global forest resources assessment 2010. Rome, Italy: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
6. Williams C, Hanan N, Neff J, Scholes R, Berry J, Denning AS, Baker DF. 2007 Africa and the global carbon cycle. Carbon Balance Manag. 2, 3. (doi:10. 1186/1750-0680-2-3)
7. Cao M, Zhang Q, Shugart HH. 2001 Dynamic responses of African ecosystem carbon cycling to climate change. Clim. Res. 17, 183-193. (doi:10. 3354/cr017183)
8. McGuire AD et al. 2001 Carbon balance of the terrestrial biosphere in the twentieth century: analyses of CO2, climate and land use effects with four process-based ecosystem models. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 15, 183-206. (doi:10.1029/ 2000GB001298)
9. Malhi Y, Wright J. 2004 Spatial patterns and recent trends in the climate of tropical rainforest regions. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B 359, 311-329. (doi:10. 1098/rstb.2003.1433)
10. Tierney JE, Russell JM, Huang Y, Damsté JSS, Hopmans EC, Cohen AS. 2008 Northern hemisphere controls on tropical southeast African climate during the past 60,000 years. Science 322, 252-255. (doi:10.1126/science.1160485)
11. Polcher J, Laval K. 1994 The impact of African and Amazonian deforestation on tropical climate. J. Hydrol. 155, 389-405. (doi:10.1016/0022-1694(94)90179-1)
12. Pollard D, Thompson SL. 1995 Use of a landsurface-transfer scheme (LSX) in a global climate model: the response to doubling stomatal resistance. Glob. Planet. Change 10, 129-161. (doi:10.1016/0921-8181(94)00023-7)
13. Washington R, James R, Pearce H, Pokam W, Moufouma-Okia W. 2013 Congo Basin rainfall climatology: a comparison of data products. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 368, 20120296. (doi:10.1098/rstb. 2012.0296)
14. Ciais P, Piao SL, Cadule P, Friedlingstein P, Chédin A. 2009 Variability and recent trends in the African terrestrial carbon balance. Biogeosciences 6, 1935-1948. (doi:10.5194/bg-6-1935-2009)
15. Hiernaux P, Mougin E, Diarra L, Soumaguel N, Lavenu F, Tracol Y, Diawara M. 2009 Sahelian rangeland response to changes in rainfall over two decades in the Gourma region, Mali. J. Hydrol. 375, 114-127. (doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.11.005)
16. Ciais P, Bombelli A, Williams M, Piao SL, Chave J, Ryan CM, Henry M, Brender P, Valentini R. 2011 The carbon balance of Africa: synthesis of recent research studies. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 369, 2038-2057. (doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0328)
17. Traore AK et al. Submitted. Impacts of recent climate variability, CO2 concentrations and cropland cover change on African terrestrial productivity and water cycle.
18. Lewis SL et al. 2009 Increasing carbon storage in intact African tropical forests. Nature 457, 1003-1006. (doi:10.1038/nature07771)
19. Malhi Y. 2010 The carbon balance of tropical forest regions, 1990-2005. Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustainability 2, 237-244. (doi:10.1016/j.cosust. 2010.08.002)
20. Gurney KR et al. 2002 Towards robust regional estimates of CO2 sources and sinks using atmospheric transport models. Nature 415, 626-630. (doi:10.1038/415626a)
21. Bousquet P, Ciais P, Peylin P, Ramonet M, Monfray P. 1999 Inverse modeling of annual atmospheric CO2 sources and sinks 1. Method and control inversion. J. Geophys. Res. 104, 26 161-26 178. (doi:10.1029/1999JD900342)
22. Houghton RA. 2003 Revised estimates of the annual net flux of carbon to the atmosphere from changes in land use and land management 1850-2000. Tellus B 55, 378-390. (doi:10.1034/j.1600-0889. 2003.01450.x)
23. Laporte NT, Stabach JA, Grosch R, Lin TS, Goetz SJ. 2007 Expansion of industrial logging in Central Africa. Science 316, 1451. (doi:10.1126/science.1141057)
24. Hulme M. 1992 Rainfall changes in Africa: 1931-1960 to 1961-1990. Int. J. Climatol. 12, 685-699. (doi:10.1002/joc.3370120703)
25. Giannini A, Biasutti M, Verstraete MM. 2008 A climate model-based review of drought in the Sahel: desertification, the re-greening and climate change. Glob. Planet. Change 64, 119-128. (doi:10. 1016/j.gloplacha.2008.05.004)
26. Olsson L, Eklundh L, Ardö J. 2005 A recent greening of the Sahel: trends, patterns and potential causes. J. Arid Environ. 63, 556-566. (doi:10.1016/j. jaridenv.2005.03.008)
27. Phillips OL et al. 2009 Drought sensitivity of the Amazon rainforest. Science 323, 1344-1347. (doi:10.1126/science.1164033)
28. Lewis SL, Malhi Y, Phillips OL. 2004 Fingerprinting the impacts of global change on tropical forests. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B 359, 437-462. (doi:10. 1098/rstb.2003.1432)
29. Fauset S, Baker TR, Lewis SL, Feldpausch TR, Affum-Baffoe K, Foli EG, Harner KC, Swaine MD. 2012 Drought-induced shifts in the floristic and functional composition of tropical forests in Ghana. Ecol. Lett. 15, 1120-1129. (doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2012.01834.x)
30. Hulme M. 1996 Recent climatic change in the world's drylands. Geophys. Res. Lett. 23, 61-64. (doi:10.1029/95GL03586)
31. Hulme M. 1996 Global warming. Prog. Phys. Geogr. 20, 216-223. (doi:10.1177/030913339602000207)
32. Nemani RR, Keeling CD, Hashimoto H, Jolly WM, Piper SC, Tucker CJ, Myneni RB, Running SW. 2003 Climate-driven increases in global terrestrial net primary production from 1982 to 1999. Science 300, 1560-1563. (doi:10.1126/science.1082750)
33. Alo CA, Wang G. 2008 Hydrological impact of the potential future vegetation response to climate changes projected by 8 GCMs. J. Geophys. Res. 113, G03011. (doi:10.1029/2007JG000598)
34. Pan Y et al. 2011 A large and persistent carbon sink in the world's forests. Science 333, 988-993. (doi:10.1126/science.1201609)
35. Houghton RA, Hackler JL. 2006 Emissions of carbon from land use change in sub-Saharan Africa. J. Geophys. Res. 111, G02003. (doi:10.1029/ 2005JG000076)
36. Achard F, Eva HD, Mayaux P, Stibig Jr H, Belward A. 2004 Improved estimates of net carbon emissions from land cover change in the tropics for the 1990s. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 18, GB2008. (doi:10.1029/ 2003GB002142)
37. Weber U et al. 2009 The interannual variability of Africa's ecosystem productivity: a multi-model analysis. Biogeosciences 6, 285-295. (doi:10.5194/ bg-6-285-2009)
38. Churkina G, Running SW. 1998 Contrasting climatic controls on the estimated productivity of global terrestrial biomes. Ecosystems 1, 206-215. (doi:10. 1007/s100219900016)
39. Jolly WM, Nemani R, Running SW. 2005 A generalized, bioclimatic index to predict foliar phenology in response to climate. Glob. Change Biol. 11, 619-632. (doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005. 00930.x)
40. Amthor JS. 1995 Terrestrial higher-plant response to increasing atmospheric [CO2] in relation to the global carbon cycle. Glob. Change Biol. 1, 243-274. (doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.1995.tb00025.x)
41. Lloyd J, Farquhar GD. 1996 The CO2 dependence of photosynthesis, plant growth responses to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations and their interaction with soil nutrient status. I. General principles and forest ecosystems. Funct. Ecol. 10, 4-32. (doi:10. 2307/2390258)
42. Friedlingstein P et al. 2006 Climate-carbon cycle feedback analysis: results from the C4MIP model intercomparison. J. Clim. 19, 3337-3353. (doi:10. 1175/JCLI3800.1)
43. Stephens BB et al. 2007 Weak northern and strong tropical land carbon uptake from vertical profiles of atmospheric CO2. Science 316, 1732-1735. (doi:10. 1126/science.1137004)
44. Ballantyne AP, Alden CB, Miller JB, Tans PP, White JWC. 2012 Increase in observed net carbon dioxide uptake by land and oceans during the past 50 years. Nature 488, 70-72. (doi:10.1038/ nature11299)
45. Higgins SI, Scheiter S. 2012 Atmospheric CO2 forces abrupt vegetation shifts locally, but not globally. Nature 488, 209-213. (doi:10.1038/ nature11238)
46. Norby RJ et al. 2005 Forest response to elevated CO2 is conserved across a broad range of productivity. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 102, 18 052-18 056. (doi:10.1073/pnas.0509478102)
47. Fisher JB, Badgley G, Blyth E. 2012 Global nutrient limitation in terrestrial vegetation from remote sensing. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 26, GB3007. (doi:10.1029/2011GB004252)
48. Finzi AC et al. 2007 Increases in nitrogen uptake rather than nitrogen-use efficiency support higher rates of temperate forest productivity under elevated CO2. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 104, 14 014-14 019. (doi:10.1073/pnas.0706518104)
49. Leakey ADB, Ainsworth EA, Bernacchi CJ, Rogers A, Long SP, Ort DR. 2009 Elevated CO2 effects on plant carbon, nitrogen, and water relations: six important lessons from FACE. J. Exp. Bot. 60, 2859-2876. (doi:10.1093/jxb/erp096)
50. Hungate BA, Dukes JS, Shaw MR, Luo Y, Field CB. 2003 Nitrogen and climate change. Science 302, 1512-1513. (doi:10.1126/science.1091390)
51. Gerber S, Hedin LO, Oppenheimer M, Pacala SW, Shevliakova E. 2010 Nitrogen cycling and feedbacks in a global dynamic land model. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 24, GB1001. (doi:10.1029/2008GB003336)
52. Fisher JB, Sitch S, Malhi Y, Fisher RA, Huntingford C, Tan S-Y. 2010 Carbon cost of plant nitrogen acquisition: a mechanistic, globally-applicable model of plant nitrogen uptake and fixation. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 24, GB1014. (doi:10.1029/ 2009GB003621)
53. Jain A, Yang X, Kheshgi H, McGuire AD, Post W, Kicklighter D. 2010 Nitrogen attenuation of terrestrial carbon cycle response to global environmental factors. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 23, GB4028. (doi:10.1029/2009GB003519)
54. Sokolov AP, Kicklighter DW, Melillo JM, Felzer BS, Schlosser CA, Cronin TW. 2008 Consequences of considering carbon-nitrogen interactions on the feedbacks between climate and the terrestrial carbon cycle. J. Clim. 21, 3776-3796. (doi:10.1175/ 2008JCLI2038.1)
55. Thornton PE, Lamarque J-F, Rosenbloom NA, Mahowald NM. 2007 Influence of carbon-nitrogen cycle coupling on land model response to CO2 fertilization and climate variability. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 21, GB4018. (doi:10.1029/ 2006GB002868)
56. Zaehle S, Friend AD, Friedlingstein P, Dentener F, Peylin P, Schulz M. 2010 Carbon and nitrogen cycle dynamics in the O-CN land surface model. II. the role of the nitrogen cycle in the historical terrestrial C balance. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 24, GB1006. (doi:10.1029/2009GB003522) 57. Xu R, Prentice IC. 2008 Terrestrial nitrogen cycle simulation with a dynamic global vegetation model. Glob. Change Biol. 14, 1745-1764. (doi:10.1111/j. 1365-2486.2008.01625.x)
57. Wang YP, Houlton B, Field CB. 2007 A model of biogeochemical cycles of carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus including symbiotic nitrogen fixation and phosphatase production. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 21, GB1018. (doi:10.1029/2006GB002797)
58. IPCC. 2007 Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In Climate change 2007: the physical science basis (eds S Solomon, D Qin, M Manning, Z Chen, M Marquis, KB Averyt), pp. 996. Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press.
59. Sitch S et al. Submitted. Trends and drivers of regional sources and sinks of carbon dioxide over the past two decades.
60. Bombelli A et al. 2009 An outlook on the sub-Saharan Africa carbon balance. Biogeosciences 6, 2193-2205. (doi:10.5194/bg-6-2193-2009)
61. Levy PE, Cannell MGR, Friend AD. 2004 Modelling the impact of future changes in climate, CO2 concentration and land use on natural ecosystems and the terrestrial carbon sink. Glob. Environ. Change 14, 21-30. (doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003. 10.005)
62. Sitch S et al. 2003 Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model. Glob. Change Biol. 9, 161-185. (doi:10.1046/j. 1365-2486.2003.00569.x)
63. Smith B, Prentice IC, Sykes MT. 2001 Representation of vegetation dynamics in modelling of terrestrial ecosystems: comparing two contrasting approaches within European climate space. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 10, 621-637. (doi:10.1046/j.1466-822X.2001. 00256.x)
64. Krinner G et al. 2005 Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 19, 1-33.
65. Cramer W et al. 2001 Global response of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function to CO2 and climate change: results from six dynamic global vegetation models. Glob. Change Biol. 7, 357-373. (doi:10. 1046/j.1365-2486.2001.00383.x)
66. Clark DB et al. 2011 The joint UK land environment simulator (JULES), model description. II. Carbon fluxes and vegetation dynamics. Geosci. Model. Dev. 4, 701-722. (doi:10.5194/gmd-4-701-2011)
67. Zeng N, Qian H, Roedenbeck C, Heimann M. 2005 Impact of 1998-2002 midlatitude drought and warming on terrestrial ecosystem and the global carbon cycle. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L22709. (doi:10.1029/2005GL024607)
68. New M, Hulme M, Jones P. 1999 Representing twentieth-century space-time climate variability. I. Development of a 1961-90 mean monthly terrestrial climatology. J. Clim. 12, 829-856. (doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012,0829:RTCS TC.2.0.CO;2)
69. New M, Hulme M, Jones P. 2000 Representing twentieth-century space-time climate variability. II. Development of 1901-1996 monthly grids of terrestrial surface climate. J. Clim. 13, 2217-2238. (doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013,2217:RTCS TC.2.0.CO;2)
70. New M, Lister D, Hulme M, Makin I. 2002 A highresolution data set of surface climate over global land areas. Clim. Res. 21, 1-25. (doi:10.3354/ cr021001)
71. Kalnay E et al. 1996 The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 77, 437-471. (doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077,0437:TNYRP.2.0.CO;2)
72. James R, Washington R, Rowell DP. 2013 Implications of global warming for the climate of African rainforests. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 368, 20120298 (doi:10.1098/rstb.2012.0298)
73. Salinger MJ, Jones PD. 1996 Southern hemisphere climate: the modern record. Papers Proc. Royal Soc. Tasmania 130, 101-107.
74. Galbraith D, Levy PE, Sitch S, Huntingford C, Cox P, Williams M, Meir P. 2010 Multiple mechanisms of Amazonian forest biomass losses in three dynamic global vegetation models under climate change. New Phytol. 187, 647-665. (doi:10.1111/j.1469-8137.2010.03350.x)
75. Farquhar GD, Sharkey TD. 1982 Stomatal conductance and photosynthesis. Annu. Rev. Plant Physiol. 33, 317-345. (doi:10.1146/annurev.pp.33. 060182.001533)
76. Fisher JB, Badgley G, Kahn BH, Malhi Y. In preparation. The Sheltering Sky: presistent cloud cover sustains the African tropical rainforests.
77. Fisher RA, Williams M, Da Costa AL, Malhi Y, Da Costa RF, Almeida S, Meir P. 2007 The response of an eastern Amazonian rain forest to drought stress: results and modelling analyses from a throughfall exclusion experiment. Glob. Change Biol. 13, 2361-2378. (doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007. 01417.x)