메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 41, Issue 2, 2013, Pages 179-202

Copula-GARCH versus dynamic conditional correlation: An empirical study on VaR and ES forecasting accuracy

Author keywords

Copulas; Dependence structures; Dynamic conditional correlation; Goodness of fit testing; Linear discriminant analysis; Risk management

Indexed keywords


EID: 84880597340     PISSN: 0924865X     EISSN: 15737179     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s11156-012-0311-2     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (53)

References (59)
  • 1
    • 77249134143 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Models for construction of multivariate dependence-a comparison study
    • Aas K, Berg D (2009) Models for construction of multivariate dependence-a comparison study. Eur J Financ 15: 639-659.
    • (2009) Eur J Financ , vol.15 , pp. 639-659
    • Aas, K.1    Berg, D.2
  • 2
    • 63649120808 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Pair-copula constructions of multiple dependence
    • Aas K, Czado C, Frigessi A, Bakken H (2009) Pair-copula constructions of multiple dependence. Insur Math Econ 44: 182-198.
    • (2009) Insur Math Econ , vol.44 , pp. 182-198
    • Aas, K.1    Czado, C.2    Frigessi, A.3    Bakken, H.4
  • 3
    • 51349087307 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Developing a stress testing framework based on market risk models
    • Alexander C, Sheedy E (2008) Developing a stress testing framework based on market risk models. J Bank Financ 32: 2220-2236.
    • (2008) J Bank Financ , vol.32 , pp. 2220-2236
    • Alexander, C.1    Sheedy, E.2
  • 4
    • 77955276329 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Time-varying joint distribution through copulas
    • Ausin MC, Lopes HF (2010) Time-varying joint distribution through copulas. Comput Stat Data An 54: 2383-2399.
    • (2010) Comput Stat Data An , vol.54 , pp. 2383-2399
    • Ausin, M.C.1    Lopes, H.F.2
  • 5
    • 34147138866 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Euro and European financial market dependence
    • Bartram S, Taylor S, Wang Y-H (2007) The Euro and European financial market dependence. J Bank Financ 51: 1461-1481.
    • (2007) J Bank Financ , vol.51 , pp. 1461-1481
    • Bartram, S.1    Taylor, S.2    Wang, Y.-H.3
  • 6
    • 68949159313 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Copula goodness-of-fit testing: an overview and power comparison
    • Berg D (2009) Copula goodness-of-fit testing: an overview and power comparison. Eur J Financ 15: 675-701.
    • (2009) Eur J Financ , vol.15 , pp. 675-701
    • Berg, D.1
  • 7
    • 0346125288 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dependence structures for multivariate high-frequency data in finance
    • Breymann W, Dias A, Embrechts P (2003) Dependence structures for multivariate high-frequency data in finance. Quant Financ 3: 1-14.
    • (2003) Quant Financ , vol.3 , pp. 1-14
    • Breymann, W.1    Dias, A.2    Embrechts, P.3
  • 8
    • 33750336690 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Asymmetric dynamics in the correlations of global equity and bond returns
    • Cappiello L, Engle RF, Sheppard K (2006) Asymmetric dynamics in the correlations of global equity and bond returns. J Financ Economet 4: 537-572.
    • (2006) J Financ Economet , vol.4 , pp. 537-572
    • Cappiello, L.1    Engle, R.F.2    Sheppard, K.3
  • 9
    • 33748595542 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimation and model selection of semiparametric copula-based multivariate dynamic models under copula misspecification
    • Chen X, Fan Y (2006) Estimation and model selection of semiparametric copula-based multivariate dynamic models under copula misspecification. J Econom 135: 125-154.
    • (2006) J Econom , vol.135 , pp. 125-154
    • Chen, X.1    Fan, Y.2
  • 10
    • 84880618096 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modeling international financial markets contagion: using copula and risk appetite
    • K. Robert (Ed.), New York: Wiley
    • Chen S, Poon S-H (2011) Modeling international financial markets contagion: using copula and risk appetite. In: Robert K (eds) Financial contagion: the viral threat to the wealth of nations, 1st edn. Wiley, New York, pp 45-56.
    • (2011) Financial Contagion: The Viral Threat to the Wealth of Nations, 1st Edn , pp. 45-56
    • Chen, S.1    Poon, S.-H.2
  • 11
    • 0042745956 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluating interval forecasts
    • Christoffersen P (1998) Evaluating interval forecasts. Int Econ Rev 39: 841-862.
    • (1998) Int Econ Rev , vol.39 , pp. 841-862
    • Christoffersen, P.1
  • 12
    • 30144441447 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Backtesting value-at-risk: a duration-based approach
    • Christoffersen P, Pelletier D (2004) Backtesting value-at-risk: a duration-based approach. J Financ Economet 2: 84-108.
    • (2004) J Financ Economet , vol.2 , pp. 84-108
    • Christoffersen, P.1    Pelletier, D.2
  • 15
    • 84884300871 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Measuring portfolio value-at-risk by a copula-EVT-based approach
    • Di Clemente A, Romano C (2005) Measuring portfolio value-at-risk by a copula-EVT-based approach. Studi Economici 85: 29-57.
    • (2005) Studi Economici , vol.85 , pp. 29-57
    • Di Clemente, A.1    Romano, C.2
  • 16
    • 77956716958 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Out of sample comparison of copula specifications in multivariate density forecasts
    • Diks C, Panchenko V, van Dijk D (2010) Out of sample comparison of copula specifications in multivariate density forecasts. J Econ Dyn Control 34: 1596-1609.
    • (2010) J Econ Dyn Control , vol.34 , pp. 1596-1609
    • Diks, C.1    Panchenko, V.2    van Dijk, D.3
  • 18
    • 0035998182 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dynamic conditional correlation: a simple class of multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models
    • Engle RF (2002) Dynamic conditional correlation: a simple class of multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models. J Bus Econ Statist 20: 339-350.
    • (2002) J Bus Econ Statist , vol.20 , pp. 339-350
    • Engle, R.F.1
  • 19
    • 77955584364 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • NYU Stern School of Business, Accessed 24 April 2012
    • Engle RF, Kelly B (2008) Dynamic equicorrelation. NYU Stern School of Business. http://pages. stern. nyu. edu/~rengle/Dynamic%20Equicorrelation. pdf. Accessed 24 April 2012.
    • (2008) Dynamic equicorrelation
    • Engle, R.F.1    Kelly, B.2
  • 20
    • 61549122147 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dynamic copula modelling for value at risk
    • Fantazzini D (2008) Dynamic copula modelling for value at risk. Front Financ Econ 31: 161-180.
    • (2008) Front Financ Econ , vol.31 , pp. 161-180
    • Fantazzini, D.1
  • 21
    • 61549129329 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The effects of misspecified marginals and copulas on computing the value at risk: a Monte Carlo study
    • Fantazzini D (2009) The effects of misspecified marginals and copulas on computing the value at risk: a Monte Carlo study. Comput Stat Data An 53: 2168-2188.
    • (2009) Comput Stat Data An , vol.53 , pp. 2168-2188
    • Fantazzini, D.1
  • 22
    • 79954731143 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Market risk management for emerging markets: evidence from the Russian stock market
    • G. Gregoriou (Ed.), London: Chapman and Hall/CRC Finance
    • Fantazzini D (2009) Market risk management for emerging markets: evidence from the Russian stock market. In: Gregoriou G (ed) Emerging markets: performance, analysis and innovation. Chapman and Hall/CRC Finance, London, pp 533-554.
    • (2009) Emerging Markets: Performance, Analysis and Innovation , pp. 533-554
    • Fantazzini, D.1
  • 23
    • 79954890754 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Value at risk for high-dimensional portfolios: a dynamic grouped-T copula approach
    • G. Gregoriou (Ed.), New York: McGraw-Hill
    • Fantazzini D (2009) Value at risk for high-dimensional portfolios: a dynamic grouped-T copula approach. In: Gregoriou G (ed) The var implementation handbook. McGraw-Hill, New York, pp 253-282.
    • (2009) The Var Implementation Handbook , pp. 253-282
    • Fantazzini, D.1
  • 24
  • 25
    • 63449084564 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Goodness-of-fit tests for copulas: a review and a power study
    • Genest C, Rémillard B, Beaudoin D (2009) Goodness-of-fit tests for copulas: a review and a power study. Insur Math Econ 44: 199-213.
    • (2009) Insur Math Econ , vol.44 , pp. 199-213
    • Genest, C.1    Rémillard, B.2    Beaudoin, D.3
  • 26
    • 62349088727 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Validity of the parametric bootstrap for goodness-of-fit testing in semiparametric models
    • Genest C, Rémillard B (2008) Validity of the parametric bootstrap for goodness-of-fit testing in semiparametric models. Ann de l'Inst Henri-Poincaré 44: 1096-1127.
    • (2008) Ann De L'inst Henri-Poincaré , vol.44 , pp. 1096-1127
    • Genest, C.1    Rémillard, B.2
  • 27
    • 33745318954 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Goodness-of-fit procedures for copula models based on the probability integral transform
    • Genest C, Quessy J-F, Rémillard B (2006) Goodness-of-fit procedures for copula models based on the probability integral transform. Scand J Stat 33: 337-366.
    • (2006) Scand J Stat , vol.33 , pp. 337-366
    • Genest, C.1    Quessy, J.-F.2    Rémillard, B.3
  • 28
    • 84936112669 scopus 로고
    • Statistical inference procedures for bivariate archimedean copulas
    • Genest C, Rivest L-P (1993) Statistical inference procedures for bivariate archimedean copulas. J Am Stat Assoc 88: 1034-1043.
    • (1993) J Am Stat Assoc , vol.88 , pp. 1034-1043
    • Genest, C.1    Rivest, L.-P.2
  • 29
    • 77955272833 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Efficient estimation of a semiparametric dynamic copula model
    • Hafner CM, Reznikova O (2010) Efficient estimation of a semiparametric dynamic copula model. Comput Stat Data An 54: 2609-2627.
    • (2010) Comput Stat Data An , vol.54 , pp. 2609-2627
    • Hafner, C.M.1    Reznikova, O.2
  • 30
    • 19644379708 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A forecast comparison of volatility models: does anything beat a GARCH(1,1)?
    • Hansen PR, Lunde A (2005) A forecast comparison of volatility models: does anything beat a GARCH(1, 1)?. J Appl Econom 20: 873-889.
    • (2005) J Appl Econom , vol.20 , pp. 873-889
    • Hansen, P.R.1    Lunde, A.2
  • 31
    • 77249111771 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the simplified pair-copula construction-simply useful or too simplistic?
    • Hobæk Haff I, Aas K, Frigessi A (2010) On the simplified pair-copula construction-simply useful or too simplistic? J Multivar Anal 101: 1296-1310.
    • (2010) J Multivar Anal , vol.101 , pp. 1296-1310
    • Hobæk Haff, I.1    Aas, K.2    Frigessi, A.3
  • 33
    • 84867744349 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Effectiveness of copula-extreme value theory in estimating value-at-risk: empirical evidence from Asian emerging markets
    • doi: 10. 1007/s11156-011-0261-0
    • Hsu CP, Huang CW, Chiou WJP (2011) Effectiveness of copula-extreme value theory in estimating value-at-risk: empirical evidence from Asian emerging markets. Rev Quant Financ Acc. doi: 10. 1007/s11156-011-0261-0.
    • (2011) Rev Quant Financ Acc
    • Hsu, C.P.1    Huang, C.W.2    Chiou, W.J.P.3
  • 34
    • 4043137402 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Value-at-risk analysis for Taiwan stock index futures: fat tails and conditional asymmetries in return innovations
    • Huang YC, Lin BJ (2004) Value-at-risk analysis for Taiwan stock index futures: fat tails and conditional asymmetries in return innovations. Rev Quant Financ Acc 22: 79-95.
    • (2004) Rev Quant Financ Acc , vol.22 , pp. 79-95
    • Huang, Y.C.1    Lin, B.J.2
  • 36
    • 33748437206 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The copula-GARCH model of conditional dependencies: an international stock market application
    • Jondeau E, Rockinger M (2006) The Copula-GARCH model of conditional dependencies: an international stock market application. J Int Money Financ 25: 827-853.
    • (2006) J Int Money Financ , vol.25 , pp. 827-853
    • Jondeau, E.1    Rockinger, M.2
  • 37
    • 34147121670 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Measurement of aggregate risk with copulas
    • Junker M, May A (2005) Measurement of aggregate risk with copulas. Economet J 8: 428-454.
    • (2005) Economet J , vol.8 , pp. 428-454
    • Junker, M.1    May, A.2
  • 38
    • 33846635121 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Comparison of semiparametric and parametric methods for estimating copulas
    • Kim G, Silvapulle M, Silvapulle P (2007) Comparison of semiparametric and parametric methods for estimating copulas. Comput Stat Data An 51: 2836-2850.
    • (2007) Comput Stat Data An , vol.51 , pp. 2836-2850
    • Kim, G.1    Silvapulle, M.2    Silvapulle, P.3
  • 39
  • 40
    • 0002875853 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On default correlation: a copula function approach
    • Li DX (2000) On default correlation: a copula function approach. J Fixed Income 9: 43-54.
    • (2000) J Fixed Income , vol.9 , pp. 43-54
    • Li, D.X.1
  • 41
    • 33745233041 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Incorporating the time-varying tail-fatness into the historical simulation method for portfolio value-at-risk
    • Lin CH, Chien CC, Chen S (2006) Incorporating the time-varying tail-fatness into the historical simulation method for portfolio value-at-risk. Rev Pac Basin Financ Mark Policies 9: 257-274.
    • (2006) Rev Pac Basin Financ Mark Policies , vol.9 , pp. 257-274
    • Lin, C.H.1    Chien, C.C.2    Chen, S.3
  • 42
    • 61549108640 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Efficient estimation of copula-GARCH models
    • Liu Y, Luger R (2009) Efficient estimation of copula-GARCH models. Comput Stat Data An 53: 2284-2297.
    • (2009) Comput Stat Data An , vol.53 , pp. 2284-2297
    • Liu, Y.1    Luger, R.2
  • 43
    • 84872615824 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Returns transmission, value at risk, and diversification benefits in international REITs: evidence from the financial crisis
    • doi: 10. 1007/s11156-012-0274-3
    • Lu C, Tse Y, Williams M (2012) Returns transmission, value at risk, and diversification benefits in international REITs: evidence from the financial crisis. Rev Quant Finan Acc. doi: 10. 1007/s11156-012-0274-3.
    • (2012) Rev Quant Finan Acc
    • Lu, C.1    Tse, Y.2    Williams, M.3
  • 44
    • 0348207977 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Testing the gaussian copula hypothesis for financial assets dependencies
    • Malevergne Y, Sornette D (2003) Testing the gaussian copula hypothesis for financial assets dependencies. Quant Financ 3: 231-250.
    • (2003) Quant Financ , vol.3 , pp. 231-250
    • Malevergne, Y.1    Sornette, D.2
  • 45
    • 84859294296 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A survey on time-varying copulas: specification, simulations and estimation
    • Manner H, Reznikova O (2012) A survey on time-varying copulas: specification, simulations and estimation. Economet Rev 31: 654-687.
    • (2012) Economet Rev , vol.31 , pp. 654-687
    • Manner, H.1    Reznikova, O.2
  • 49
    • 0004156740 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Lect Notes Stat, 2nd edn, Springer, New York
    • Nelsen RB (2006) An introduction to copulas. Lect Notes Stat, 2nd edn, vol 139. Springer, New York.
    • (2006) An introduction to copulas , vol.139
    • Nelsen, R.B.1
  • 50
    • 84862007826 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Vine copulas with asymmetric tail dependence and applications to financial return data
    • doi: 10. 1016/j. csda. 2010. 07. 016
    • Nikoloulopoulos AK, Joe H, Li H (2010) Vine copulas with asymmetric tail dependence and applications to financial return data. Comput Stat Data An. doi: 10. 1016/j. csda. 2010. 07. 016.
    • (2010) Comput Stat Data An.
    • Nikoloulopoulos, A.K.1    Joe, H.2    Li, H.3
  • 51
    • 35649022412 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Using conditional copula to estimate value at risk
    • Palaro HP, Hotta LK (2006) Using conditional copula to estimate value at risk. J Data Sci 4: 93-115.
    • (2006) J Data Sci , vol.4 , pp. 93-115
    • Palaro, H.P.1    Hotta, L.K.2
  • 52
    • 33645716201 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modelling asymmetric exchange rate dependence
    • Patton A (2006) Modelling asymmetric exchange rate dependence. Int Economic Rev 47: 527-556.
    • (2006) Int Economic Rev , vol.47 , pp. 527-556
    • Patton, A.1
  • 53
    • 32944462440 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The hidden dangers of historical simulation
    • Pritsker M (2006) The hidden dangers of historical simulation. J Bank Financ 30: 561-582.
    • (2006) J Bank Financ , vol.30 , pp. 561-582
    • Pritsker, M.1
  • 54
    • 79954772255 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Are copula-GoF-tests of any practical use? Empirical evidence for stocks, commodities and FX futures
    • Q (2011) Are copula-GoF-tests of any practical use? Empirical evidence for stocks, commodities and FX futures. Q Rev Econ Financ 51: 173-188.
    • (2011) Q Rev Econ Financ , vol.51 , pp. 173-188
    • Weiß, G.N.F.1
  • 55
    • 0000301907 scopus 로고
    • Remarks on a multivariate transformation
    • Rosenblatt M (1952) Remarks on a multivariate transformation. Ann Math Stat 23: 470-472.
    • (1952) Ann Math Stat , vol.23 , pp. 470-472
    • Rosenblatt, M.1
  • 56
    • 39749119776 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Goodness-of-fit tests for parametric families of archimedean copulas
    • Savu C, Trede M (2008) Goodness-of-fit tests for parametric families of archimedean copulas. Quant Financ 8: 109-116.
    • (2008) Quant Financ , vol.8 , pp. 109-116
    • Savu, C.1    Trede, M.2
  • 58
    • 0000646447 scopus 로고
    • Likelihood ratio tests for model selection and non-nested hypotheses
    • Vuong Q (1989) Likelihood ratio tests for model selection and non-nested hypotheses. Econometrica 57: 307-333.
    • (1989) Econometrica , vol.57 , pp. 307-333
    • Vuong, Q.1
  • 59
    • 44149084721 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Backtesting trading risk of commercial banks using expected shortfall
    • Wong WK (2008) Backtesting trading risk of commercial banks using expected shortfall. J Bank Financ 32: 1404-1415.
    • (2008) J Bank Financ , vol.32 , pp. 1404-1415
    • Wong, W.K.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.