Russia and Syria: Explaining alignment with a regime in crisis

International Affairs

Volumn 89, Issue 4, 2013, Pages 795-823

  Allison, Roy ^a,b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84880394355     PISSN: 00205850     EISSN: 14682346     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/1468-2346.12046     Document Type: Article

References (163)

1. This topic is analysed extensively in Roy Allison, Russia, the West and military intervention (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2013
2. For a short assessment of this aspect of Russian decision-making, see 1, Feb. March Samuel Charap, 'Russia, Syria and the doctrine of intervention', Survival 55: 2013, pp. 35-41.
3. Concept of the Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation, approved by Putin 12 Feb. 2013http://www.mid.ru2013
4. Sergei Lavrov, 'Russia's foreign policy philosophy', 28 March 2013, http://www.mid.ru
5. See Security Council statement SC/10180, AFR/2120, issued 22 Feb. 2011, http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2011/sc10180.doc.htm
6. Interview with Putin, 21 March 2011, http://archive.premier.gov.ru/eng/events/news/14542
7. News conference after G8 summit, 28 May 2011, http://www.kremlin.ru
8. Sergei Lavrov at press conference in Tskhinvali, 26 April 2011, BBC Summary of World Broadcasts: Former Soviet Union, http://www.bbc.monitoringonline.com
9. See remarks by Putin on 26 April 2011, http://archive.premier.gov.ru/eng/visits/world/14991/events/14996/
10. Russian foreign ministry press release, 1 May 2011, http://www.mid.ru
11. Statement by the new Russian foreign ministry human rights envoy, Konstantin Dolgov, RIA Novosti news agency, 3 May 2011, BBC Mon FS1 FsuPol stu; interview with Sergei Lavrov, Moskovskiye novosti, 12 May 2011, http://www.mid.ru
12. Dolgov, Interfax, 25 May 2011, BBC Mon Alert FS1 MCU ME1 MEPol 250511 ib.
13. Lavrov, Interfax, 13 May 2011, BBC Mon Alert FS1 MCU ME1 MEPol 130511 et.
14. Interview of Lavrov, Moskovskie novosti, 19 May 2011.
15. Lavrov, 1 June 2011, http://www.mid.ru2011
16. Lavrov, 23 Dec. 2011, at http://www.mid.ru, accessed 10 May 2013.
17. Interview on 5 Aug. 2011, http://eng.news.kremlin.ru/news/2680/print
18. Dmitri Trenin, 'The mythical alliance: Russia's Syria policy', Carnegie Papers, Carnegie Moscow Centre, Feb. 2013, p. 19
19. However, Trenin also concedes that 'Russia has refused to use incentives and disincentives with Assad-such as security guarantees or threats of cutting aid-to make him amenable to dialogue', and that 'Russia has been arming one of the sides in a de facto civil war': pp. 20-21
20. Vitaly Churkin, 5 Oct. 2011, http://www.mid.ru; S/2011/6122011http://www.un.org/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=S/PV.6627
21. For the weak Russian defence of its vote, see Security Council 6711th meeting, 4 Feb. 2011, S/PV.6711, http://www.un.org/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=S/PV.67112013
22. For an analysis of the Chinese stance in the Syria crisis and Security Council voting, see Yang Fuchan (former vice-minister of the Chinese ministry of foreign affairs), 'Large-scale upheaval in the Middle East and China's diplomatic relations', Journal of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies 6: 4, Dec. 2012, pp. 1-17.
23. Russian deputy foreign minister Mikhail Bogdanov, as reported in http://valdaiclub.com/middle_east/38940/print_edition/
24. Action Group for Syria final communiqué, and Lavrov press conference, 30 June 2012,http://www.mid.ru
25. Daily Telegraph, 22 March 2012.
26. Security Council Resolution 2042, S/RES/2042, 14 April 2012, http://www.un.org/Docs/sc/unsc_resolutions12htm
27. 'US hopes Assad can be eased out with Russia's aid', New York Times, 27 May 2012
28. 'Syria: why Russia changed tack', Guardian, 28 May 2012.
29. For analysis of the Cold War Soviet-Syrian relationship, see Efraim Karsh, Soviet policy towards Syria since 1970 (Basingstoke: Macmillan, 1991)
30. Efraim Karsh, The Soviet Union and Syria: the Assad years (London: Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1998).
31. Karsh, Soviet Policy towards Syria since 1970, p. 33.
32. Christopher Andrew and Vasili Mitrokhin, The Mitrokhin Archive II: the KGB and the world (London: Allen Lane, 2005), pp. 195-6
33. Andrew and Mitrokhin, The Mitrokhin Archive II, p. 206
34. Andrew and Mitrokhin, The Mitrokhin Archive II, pp. 208-10
35. Efraim Karsh, 'Soviet-Syrian relations: the troubled partnership', in Margot Light, ed., Troubled friendships: Moscow's Third World ventures (London: British Academic Press, 1993), pp. 146-7
36. Roy Allison, The Soviet Union and the strategy of non-alignment in the Third World (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1988), pp. 232-3
37. Zafar Imam, Towards a model relationship: a study of Soviet treaties with India and other Third World countries (New Delhi: ABC Publishing House, 1983), pp. 157-61
38. Andrej Kreutz, Syria: Russia's best asset in the Middle East, Russie. Nei. Visions no. 55, Institut français des relations internationales, Paris, Nov. 2010 http://www.ifri.org/?page=contribution-detail&id=6301&id_provenance=97p. 18.
39. 'There are no Russian military specialists in the ranks of the Syrian army', only at Tartus, according to the deputy director of the Russian Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation, Vyacheslav Dzirkaln: Interfax-AVN military news agency, Moscow, 11 July 2012, BBC Mon Alert FS1 MCU ME1 MEPol 110712 mf. 'Russian military presence in Syria poses challenge to US-led intervention', Guardian, 23 Dec. 2012.
40. Pavel Felgenhauer, 'Moscow ready for a confrontation with the West over Syria', Eurasia Daily Monitor (Jamestown Foundation) 9: 132, 12 July 2012, http://www.eurasia.org
41. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Report, 21 March 2012, http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/24523022.html
42. For Syrian support for Russian Middle East policy since the early 2000s, see Kreutz, Syria, Russia's best asset in the Middle East, pp. 12-17.
43. Andrej Kreutz, Russia in the Middle East: friend or foe? (Westport, CT: Praeger, 2007), p. 25.
44. Yevgeny Primakov, Russia and the Arabs: behind the scenes in the Middle East from the Cold War to the present (New York: Basic Books, 2009), p. 386
45. Yevgeny Primakov, Blizhniy vostok na stsene i za kulisami (Moscow: Rossiyskaya gazeta, 2012).
46. Kreutz, Russia in the Middle East, p. 28.
47. Roland Dannreuther, 'Russia and the Middle East: a Cold War paradigm?', Europe-Asia Studies 64: 3, May 2012, p. 555
48. Gulf news website, Dubai, 3 Jan. 2013, BBC Mon ME1 MEEauosc EU1 EuroPol 040113/hh.
49. Lavrov, as cited by RIA Novosti, 'Moscow concerned about Syria, not Assad-minister', 25 Feb. 2013, http://en.ria.ru/Russia/20130225/179674039.html2013
50. Rossiyskaya gazeta website, Moscow, 12 Oct. 2012, p. 8
51. BBC Mon FS1 FsuPol ME1 MEPol 261012 ms/osc.
52. Eurasia Daily Monitor (Jamestown Foundation) 10: 17, 30 Jan. 2013, at http://www.eurasia.org
53. 'Russia evacuates its nationals from Syria', RIA Novosti, 23 Jan. 2013, http://en.ria.ru/russia/20130123/178969855.html
54. Russian deputy foreign minister Mikhail Bogdanov, Interfax news agency, Moscow, 13 Dec. 2012
55. For the Russian reaction to such threats, see foreign ministry statement, 21 Nov. 2012, http://www.mid.ru
56. Statement by Putin at meeting of the Commission for Military-Technical Cooperation with Foreign Countries, Rossiyskaya gazeta, 18 Oct. 2012.
57. Estimate by Russian think-tank Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (CAST), Financial Times, 27 June 2012. According to the general director of Russia's largest state arms exporter Rosoboronexport, Anatoly Isaykin, Syria ranks 12th or 13th in terms of Rosoboronexport's deliveries: Interfax-AVN military news agency, Moscow, 13 Feb. +, BBC Mon FS1 MCU ME1 MEPol 130213 ym.
58. Ruslan Pukhov, head of CAST, RIA Novosti, 10 July 2012, http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20120710/174530767.html
59. CAST, RIA Novosti, 10 July 2012, http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20120710/174530767.html
60. As reported in Interfax-AVN military news agency, Moscow, 26 June 2012, BBC Mon Alert FA1 FsuPol ME1 MEPol gv.
61. 'Russian military specialists are already in Syria', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 16 May 2013, citing Russian 'military-diplomatic sources'
62. 'US balks as Russia prepares to deliver missiles to Syria', Christian Science Monitor, 10 May 2013.
63. New York Times, 16 May 2013, citing unidentified American officials.
64. Interfax-AVN military news agency, Moscow, 1 April 2011, BBC Mon FS1 FsuPol ME1 MEPol sv.
65. Russian military-diplomatic source, Interfax-AVN military news agency, Moscow, 3 Aug. 2012, BBC Mon FS1 FsuPol ME1 MEPol hb.
66. Russian military news agency Interfax-AVN military news agency, Moscow, 22 March 2013.
67. Russian general staff in Interfax-AVN military news agency, Moscow, 27 July 2012, BBC Mon FS1 FsuPol ME1 MEPol kdd
68. Alexander Shumilin, 'A ship leading to escalation in Syria', Moscow Times, 18 June 2012.
69. Felgenhauer, 'Moscow ready for a confrontation'.
70. Wall Street Journal, 17 May For details of the groupings of vessels involved, see reports by Interfax-AVN military news agency, Moscow, 23 April and 8 May 2013, BBC Mon FS1 FsuPol Me1 MEPol gyl and BBC Mon FS1 FsuPol sv.2013
71. Col.-Gen. Aleksandr Postnikov, deputy chief of the Russian General Staff, describing a briefing to NATO on the Russian naval presence in the Mediterranean: Interfax-AVN military news agency, Moscow, 20 May 2013, BBC Mon FS1 FsuPol stu.
72. Interview with Lavrov, Rossiyskaya gazeta website, Moscow, 23 Oct. 2012, p. 8
73. BBC Mon FS1 FsuPol ME1 MEPol 261012 ms/osc.
74. Trenin, 'The mythical alliance', pp. 14-15.
75. Dannreuther, 'Russia and the Middle East', pp. 554-5
76. Lavrov in interview with Egyptian newspaper Al Ahram, 5 Nov. 2012, at http://www.mid.ru
77. Lavrov at press conference, 16 July 2012http://www.mid.ru
78. 'Influence of Islamists in Syrian rebellion complicates policy', New York Times International Weekly, 5 May 2013, p. 2.
79. See 'Ahrar al-Sham: a profile of Northern Syria's al-Qaeda surrogate', Terrorism Monitor (Jamestown Foundation) 11: 7, 4 April 2013.
80. Chris Zambelis, 'Lebanese Salafist cleric organizes militia forays into Syria', Terrorism Monitor (Jamestown Foundation) 11: 10, 27 May 2013.
81. Syrian foreign minister Walid Mouallem, at news conference with Sergei Lavrov, RIA Novosti, 25 Feb. 2013, http://en.ria.ru/russia/20130225/1799674039.html
82. Russian deputy foreign minister G. Gatilov, 1 Dec. 2012, and Russian foreign ministry representative, 6 Nov. 2012, http://www.mid.ru
83. Lavrov interview for Foreign Policy, published 29 April 2013, at http://www.mid.ru
84. Alexander Aksenyonok, 'Syria as a mirror of the changing world order', Russia in Global Affairs, no. 1, Jan.-March 2013, p. 2http://eng.globalaffairs.ru
85. Russian president's special representative on international cooperation in counterterrorism and transnational organised crime, Aleksandr Zmeyevsky, as reported in Johnson's Russia List, 4 Feb. 2013http://archive.constantcontact.com/fs053/1102820649387/archive/1102911694293.html
86. 'Evidence mounts of foreigners fighting to help Assad regime', The Times, 23 Jan. 2013, p. 26
87. 'Hezbollah joins front line as battle rages for key town held by rebels', The Times, 21 May 2013, p. 26.
88. 'Russia concerned by reports of Israeli air strike on Syria', RIA Novosti, 31 Jan. 2013, http://en.ria.ru/russia/20130131/179141261.html
89. 'Israel carries out second air strike in Syria', Guardian, 5 May 2013.
90. As stated by deputy director of the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation, Vyacheslav Dzirkaln, Interfax-AVN military news agency, Moscow, 14 May 2013, BBC Mon FS1 FsuPol stu.
91. Statement by Army General Nikolai Makarov, Interfax-AVN military news agency, Moscow, 24 Oct. 2012, BBC Mon Alert FS1 MCU MW1 MEPol 241012 ym
92. Russian foreign ministry statement, 25 Oct. 2012, at http://www.mid.ru
93. Lavrov, 6 Nov. 2012, at http://www.mid.ru
94. Questions during visit to Amman, Jordan, 6 Nov. 2012, http://www.mid.ru
95. Russian foreign ministry statement, RIA Novosti, 19 March 2013, http://en.ria.ru/world/20130319/180117137.html
96. On possible military responses by the US to alleged evidence of chemical weapons use by Damascus, see Guardian, 27 April 2013, p. 20.
97. 'Involving Russia in Syria', Washington Post, 4 Feb. 2013.
98. Trenin, 'The mythical alliance', p. 11.
99. Izvestiya, 25 June 2012.
100. Interview for Russia Today TV, 21 June 2012
101. Johnson's Russia List, 22 June 2012, 2012.113, http://archive.constantcontact.com/fs053/1102820649387/archive/1102911694293.html
102. Argumenty nedeli, 28 June 2012
103. Johnson's Russia List, 27 June 2012, 2012.15.
104. Aksenyonok, 'Syria as a mirror of the changing world order', p. 3.
105. Interfax, 2 March 2011, Johnson's Russia List, 3 March 2011, 2011.39.
106. 'Syria as a terrorism hub: potential threats to Russia', http://valdaiclub.com/middle_east/57782.html
107. Paul Goble, 'North Caucasus more unstable and more threatening to Moscow now than a year ago', North Caucasus Weekly (Jamestown Foundation) 14: 2013.
108. Fiona Hill, 'The real reasons Putin supports Assad: mistaking Syria for Chechnya', http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/139079/fiona-hill/the-real-reason-putin-supports-assad2013.
109. Mark N. Katz, 'Putin's foreign policy towards Syria', Middle East Review of International Affairs 10: 1, 2006, p. 8
110. Mark N. Katz, 'Moscow and the Middle East: repeat performance?', Russia in Global Affairs2012, p. 4.
111. 'Chechens are among foreigners fighting to overthrow Bashar al-Assad', Eurasia Daily Monitor (Jamestown Foundation) 9: 219, 30 Nov. 2012, http://www.eurasia.org
112. 'Chechen insurgency leader Doku Umarov tells Chechens not to fight in Syria', Eurasia Daily Monitor (Jamestown Foundation) 10: 59, 29 March 2013, http://www.eurasia.org
113. This report surmises that there maybe several hundred Chechens fighting in Syria.
114. Vladimir Kotlyar, Member of the Russian foreign ministry International Law Council, interviewed in Kommersant-FM, 19 April 2013.
115. Lt-Gen. Igor Sergun, chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Russian General Staff, Interfax, 23 May 2013, Johnson's Russia List, 24 May 2013.
116. 'For Putin, principle vs practicality on Syria', New York Times, 5 July 2012.
117. Alexander Golts, 'Putin between Assad and Mubarek', Moscow Times, 7 June 2012.
118. Interview in Rossiyskaya gazeta, 11 July 2011http://www.mid.ru
119. Lavrov's speech at 49th Munich security conference, 2 Feb. 2013http://www.mid.ru
120. Lavrov at press conference, Moscow, 23 Jan. 2012http://www.mid.ru
121. UN Security Council Resolution 2085, SC/10870, http://www.un.org?News/Press/docs//2012/sc10870.doc.htm
122. Statement by Lavrov, 'Moscow hails Mali political agreement', RIA Novosti, 9 April 2012, http://en.rian.ru/world/20120409/172709490.html
123. Mikhail Margelov, Russian presidential adviser on Africa, 'Russia upholds Mali's territorial integrity', RIA Novosti, 6 April 2012http://en.rian.ru/russia/21020406/172654558.html
124. Lavrov on Russia TV, Moscow, 10 Feb. 2013, http://www.mid.ru
125. See Rachel Brandenburg, 'Military intervention in Mali vs. Syria: when is the path rocky or paved?', United States Institute of Peace, 6 Feb. 2013, http://www.usip.org/print/publications/military-intervention-in-mali-vs-syria-when-the-path-rocky-or-paved
126. See Allison, Russia, The West and military intervention, pp. 133-8.
127. Nikolas K. Gvosdev, 'Why Russia won't abandon Syria', The National Interest, 29 2012, http://nationalinterest.org
128. Stephen Blank and Carol R. Saivetz, 'Playing to lose? Russia and the "Arab Spring"', Problems of Post-Communism 59: 12012, pp. 8-10.
129. Description by Nikolai Bordyuzha of informal CSTO meeting, Kazakh Khabar TV, 12 Aug. 2011, BBC Mon Alert CAU 120811 ak/hsh.
130. Address to meeting of the Russian National Counterterrorism Committee in Vladikavkaz, as reported in Moskovsky komsomolets, 24 Feb. 2011.
131. Statement by Lavrov after meetings with the British Prime Minister and Foreign Secretary, 15 Feb. 2011, Johnson's Russia List, 16 Feb. 2011
132. Report by Makarov to the Russian Public Chamber, in Kommersant, 18 Nov. 2011, p. 2.
133. For a discussion of this issue, see Fiona Hill, 'How Russia and China see the Egyptian revolution', 15 Feb. 2011http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/02/15/how_russia_and_china_see_the_egyptian_revolution
134. 'Authoritarian Russia watches as Middle East unravels', Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Report, 3 March 2011
135. 'Authoritarian Russia watches as Middle East unravels', RFE/RL.
136. Alexander Golts, 'Putin between Assad and Mubarek', Moscow Times, 7 June 2012.
137. Allison, Russia, the West and military intervention, pp. 91-4
138. John Russell, 'Exploitation of the "Islamic factor" In the Russo-Chechen conflicts before and after 11 September 2001', European Security 11: 4 2002, pp. 96-109
139. James Hughes, 'The Chechnya conflict: freedom fighters or terrorists?', Demokratizatsiya 15: 3, 2007, p. 307
140. Svante Cornell, 'International reactions to massive human rights violations: the case of Chechnya', Europe-Asia Studies 51: 1, 1999, pp. 85-100
141. Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Centre for the Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, Interfax-AVN military news agency, 29 May 2013, BBC Mon FS1 FsuPol MW1 MEPol gv. The Russian defence minister, Army General Sergei Shoigu, noted that 'if one side lifts the restrictions, the other side can consider itself to be no longer bound by its earlier obligations', Interfax-AVN military news agency, Moscow, 29 May 2013, BBC Mon FS1 FsuPol ME1 MEPol gv.
142. 'G-8 meeting ends with cordial stalemate', International Herald Tribune, 19 June 2013, p. 4
143. Aleksey Pushkov, Chairman of the State Duma Committee for International Affairs, 'our American friends are starting to shift to our position .... they have admitted that a collapse of the governance structure in Syria is fraught with the most negative consequences .... The Americans have realized that if suddenly everything collapses, we will get another Afghanistan': RIA Novosti, 13 Feb. 2013, in Johnson's Russia List, 14 Feb. 2013
144. Meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State John Kerry, RIA Novosti, 26 Feb. 2013, http://en.ria.ru/world/20130226/179702028.html
145. 'US hopes Assad can be eased out with Russia's aid', New York Times, 27 May 2012.
146. 'Due West: is Russia changing track on Syria?', RIA Novosti, 21 March 2013http://en.rian.ru/columnists/20120321/s172307077.html
147. Katz, 'Moscow and the Middle East', p. 4.
148. For the argument that Moscow feels that the Syria crisis has reconfirmed Russia's global indispensabilityPavel Baev
149. Not everything is wrong with Russia's Syria strategy', PONARS Eurasia, 26 April 2013, http://www.ponarseurasia.org
150. Sergei Lavrov, 'Russia's foreign policy philosophy', http://www.mid.ru
151. Lavrov, interviewed in Rossiyskaya gazeta, 23 Oct. 2012, p. 8
152. BBC Mon FSi FsuPol ME1 MEpol 261012 ms/osc. He repeated the claim later that all the opposition members contacted 'did not think of the future of their country and the whole region without Russia's active involvement' since multidirectional ties provide 'better balance': Interfax news agency, Moscow, 10 Feb. 2013, BBC Mon Alert FS1 FsuPol ME1 MEPol iz.
153. Interview with Lavrov on Lebanese TV channel Al-Mayadin, 13 May 2013, http://www.mid.ru
154. Trenin, 'The mythical alliance', p. 25
155. Dmitri Trenin, 'Finally, the US and Russia team up', New York Times, 8 May 2013.
156. Mikhail Margelov, Chairman of the International Affairs Committee of the Federation Council, Interfax news agency, Moscow, 9 July 2012, BBC Mon FS1 FsuPol ME1 MEPol ibg.
157. Speech by Lavrov, 29 Oct. 2012, at http://www.mid.ru
158. Guardian, 20 April 2013, p. 22.
159. International Herald Tribune, 19 June 2013, p. 4.
160. Statement by Lavrov on Rossiya 2 TV, 10 Feb. 2013
161. Interfax news agency, Moscow, 10 Feb. 2013, BBC Mon Alert FS1 FsuPol ME1 MEPol iz.
162. US Vice-President Joe Biden, in a private meeting with Lavrov on 2 Feb. 2013
163. Reportedly proposed that Russia and the US work jointly to secure control of Syria's chemical weapons if Assad's government should fall. See 'Involving Russia in Syria', Washington Post, 4 Feb. 2013