The relationship between the Madden-Julian oscillation and U.S. violent tornado outbreaks in the spring

Monthly Weather Review

Volumn 141, Issue 6, 2013, Pages 2087-2095

  Thompson, Daniel B ^a   Roundy, Paul E ^a  

^a STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK   (United States)

Author keywords

Forecasting; Madden Julian oscillation; Teleconnections; Tornadoes

Indexed keywords

CIRCULATION PATTERNS; COMPOSITE ANALYSIS; GEO-POTENTIAL HEIGHTS; MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION; OVERTURNING CIRCULATION; STANDARD DEVIATION; TELECONNECTIONS; WEATHER VARIABILITY;

CLIMATOLOGY; FORECASTING; STATISTICS;

TORNADOES;

GEOPOTENTIAL; MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION; ROSSBY WAVE; TELECONNECTION; TORNADO; WEATHER FORECASTING;

UNITED STATES;

EID: 84879976349     PISSN: 00270644     EISSN: 15200493     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-12-00173.1     Document Type: Article

References (24)

1. Beebe, R. G., 1956: Tornado composite charts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 84, 127-142.
2. Cook, A. R., and J. T. Schaefer, 2008: The relation of El Nin~ o- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to winter tornado outbreaks. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 3121-3137.
3. Doswell, C. A., 2007: Small sample size and data quality issues illustrated using tornado occurrence data. Electron. J. Severe Storms Meteor., 2 (5), 1-16.
4. Doswell, C. A., S. J. Weiss, and R. H. Johns, 1993: Tornado forecasting: A review. The Tornado: Its Structure, Dynamics, Prediction, and Hazards, Geophys. Monogr., Vol. 79, Amer. Geophys. Union, 161-172.
5. Doswell, C. A., R. Edwards, R. L. Thompson, J. A. Hart, and K. C. Crosbie, 2006:Asimple and flexible method for ranking severe weather events. Wea. Forecasting, 21, 939-951.
6. Efron, B., and R. J. Tibshirani, 1993: An Introduction to the Bootstrap. Chapman and Hall/CRC, 436 pp.
7. Kalnay, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437-471.
8. Liebmann, B., and C. A. Smith, 1996: Description of a complete (interpolated) outgoing longwave radiation dataset. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 1275-1277.
9. Madden, R. A., and P. R. Julian, 1994: Observations of the 40-50-day tropical oscillation-A review. Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 814-837.
10. Mercer, A. E., C. M. Shafer, C. A. Doswell, L.M. Leslie, and M. B. Richman, 2009: Objective classification of tornadic and nontornadic severe weather outbreaks. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 4355-4368.
11. Mercer, A. E., C. M. Shafer, C. A. Doswell, L.M. Leslie, and M. B. Richman, 2012: Synoptic composites of tornadic and nontornadic outbreaks. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 2590-2608.
12. Miller, R., 1972: Notes on analysis and severe-storm forecasting procedures of the Air Force Global Weather Center. Air Weather Service Tech. Rep. 200, rev. ed. Air Weather Service, Scott Air Force Base, IL, 184 pp.
13. Muñ oz, E., and D. Enfield, 2009: The boreal spring variability of the Intra-Americas low-level jet and its relation with precipitation and tornadoes in the eastern United States. Climate Dyn., 36, 247-259, doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0688-3.
14. Roundy, P. E., 2012: Tracking and prediction of large-scale organized tropical convection by spectrally focused two-step space-time EOF analysis. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 138, 919-931.
15. Roundy, P. E., C. J. Schreck, and M. A. Janiga, 2009: Contributions of convectively coupled equatorial Rossby waves and Kelvin waves to the Real-time Multivariate MJO indices. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 469-478.
16. Roundy, P. E., K. MacRitchie, J. Asuma, and T. Melino, 2010: Modulation of the global atmospheric circulation by combined activity in the Madden-Julian oscillation during boreal winter. J. Climate, 23, 4045-4059.
17. Sardeshmukh, P. D., and B. J. Hoskins, 1988: The generation of global rotational flow by steady idealized tropical divergence. J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 1228-1251.
18. Schaefer, J. T., and R. Edwards, 1999: The SPC tornado/severe thunderstorm database. Preprints, 11th Conf. on Applied Climatology, Orlando, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 6.11. [Available online at https://ams.confex.com/ams/99annual/abstracts/1360.htm.]
19. Shafer, C. M., A. E. Mercer, C. A. Doswell, M. B. Richman, and L. M. Leslie, 2009: Evaluation of WRF forecasts of tornadic and nontornadic outbreaks when initialized with synopticscale input. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 1250-1271.
20. Shafer, C. M., A. E. Mercer., L. M. Leslie, M. B. Richman, and C. A. Doswell, 2010: Evaluation of WRF model simulations of tornadic and nontornadic outbreaks that occur in the spring and fall. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 4098-4119.
21. Thorncroft, C. D., B. J. Hoskins, and M. E. McIntyre, 1993: Two paradigms of baroclinic-wave life-cycle behaviour. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 119, 17-55.
22. Wallace, J. M., and D. S. Gutzler, 1981: Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Mon. Wea. Rev., 109, 784-812.
23. Wheeler, M., and H. H. Hendon, 2004: An all-season real-time multivariate MJO index: Development of an index for monitoring and prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 1917- 1932.
24. Zhang, C., 2005: Madden-Julian Oscillation. Rev. Geophys., 43, RG2003, doi:10.1029/2004RG000158.