Modelling the impact of HIV prevention and treatment for men who have sex with men on HIV epidemic trajectories in low- and middle-income countries

International Journal of STD and AIDS

Volumn 24, Issue 1, 2013, Pages 18-30

  Wirtz, A L ^a,b   Walker, D G ^c   Bollinger, L ^d   Sifakis, F ^a   Baral, S ^a   Johns, B ^a   Oelrichs, R ^e   Beyrer, C ^a  

^a JOHNS HOPKINS BLOOMBERG SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH   (United States)

^b DEPARTMENT OF PATHOLOGY   (United States)

^c BILL AND MELINDA GATES FOUNDATION   (United States)

^d AVENIR HEALTH   (United States)

^e WORLD BANK   (United States)

Author keywords

AIDS; Goals model; HIV; HIV infection; Homosexuality; MSM; Prevention; Transmission

Indexed keywords

ADOLESCENT; ADULT; ANTIVIRAL THERAPY; ARTICLE; HIGH RISK POPULATION; HIV TEST; HUMAN; HUMAN IMMUNODEFICIENCY VIRUS INFECTION; HUMAN IMMUNODEFICIENCY VIRUS INFECTION PREVENTION; HUMAN IMMUNODEFICIENCY VIRUS PREVALENCE; INFECTION PREVENTION; KENYA; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; MALE; MEN WHO HAVE SEX WITH MEN; PATIENT COUNSELING; PERU; PRIORITY JOURNAL; PROSTITUTION; SEXUAL BEHAVIOR; THAILAND; UKRAINE; VIRUS TRANSMISSION;

EID: 84879494049     PISSN: 09564624     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1177/0956462412472291     Document Type: Article

References (47)

1. Baral S, Sifakis F, Cleghorn F, Beyrer C. Elevated risk for HIV infection among men who have sex with men in low and middle income countries 2000-2006. PLoS Med 2007;4:e339
2. International Lesbian Gay Bisexual Trans and Intersex Association. Map: Male-to-Male Relationship, Punishments 2010. 2010. See http://ilga.org/ilga/en/ index.html (cited 20 June 2010)
3. Beyrer C, Baral S, Walker D, Wirtz A, Johns B, Sifakis F. The expanding epidemics of HIV-1 among men who have sex with men in low and middle income countries: diversity and consistency. Epidemiol Rev 2010;32:137-51
4. Stover J, Bollinger L, Cooper-Arnold K, The Futures Group International. Goals Model: For estimating the Effects of Resource Allocation Decisions on the Achievement of the Goals of the HIV/AIDS Strategic Plan. Glastonbury, CT: Futures Institute, 2003
5. Futures Institute. Goals manual: a model for estimating the effects of interventions and resource allocation on HIV infections and deaths. Glastonbury, CT, 2011
6. Johnson W, Diaz R, Flanders W, et al. Behavioral interventions to reduce risk for sexual transmission of HIV among men who have sex with men. Cochrane Database Syst Rev 2008;3:CD001230
7. Cohen MS, Chen YQ, McCauley M, et al. Prevention of HIV-1 infection with early antiretroviral therapy. N Engl J Med 2011
8. Eshleman SH, Hudelson SE, Redd AD, et al. Analysis of genetic linkage of HIV from couples enrolled in the HIV Prevention Trials Network 052 trial. J Infect Dis 2011;204:1918-26
9. Amjadeen L, Kaschenkova K, Konoplytska T, et al. Report on the survey "Monitoring behaviours of MSM as a component of second-generation surveillance". International AIDS Alliance. Kiev; 2005. Available at: http:// www.aidsalliance.org.ua/cgi-bin/index.cgi?url=/en/library/our/index.htm
10. Balakiryeva O, Bondar T, Kasyanczuk M. Report on the survey 'Monitoring behaviours of men having sex with men as a component of second generation surveillance'. Kiev: International HIV/AIDS Alliance in Ukraine, 2008
11. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). HIV prevalence among populations of men who have sex with men-Thailand, 2003 and 2005. Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2006;55:844-8
12. International HIV/AIDS Alliance in Ukraine. Monitoring behaviour of men having sex with men: analytical report on the results of the research. Kyiv: Alliance, 2008
13. MINSA. Estadistica: Indicadores de salud. Ministerio de Salud del Peru, 2009
14. Sanchez J, Lama JR, Peinado J, et al. High HIV and ulcerative sexually transmitted infection incidence estimates among men who have sex with men in Peru: awaiting for an effective preventive intervention. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 2009;51(Suppl. 1):S47-51
15. Sanders E, Graham S, Okuku H, et al. HIV-1 infection in high risk men who have sex with men in Mombasa, Kenya. AIDS 2007;21:2513-20
16. Hierholzer J, Montano S, Hoelscher M, et al. Molecular epidemiology of HIV type 1 in Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, Uruguay, and Argentina. AIDS Res Hum Retroviruses 2002;18:1339-50
17. Angala P, Parkinson A, KIlonzo N, Natecho A, Taegtmeyer M. Men who have sex with men (MSM) as presented in VCT data in Kenya (Abstract no. MOPE0581). AIDS 2006-XVI International AIDS Conference; 2006; Toronto, 2006
18. Van Griensven F, Thanprasertsuk S, Jommaroeng R, et al., Bangkok MSM Study Group. Evidence of a previously undocumented epidemic of HIV infection among men who have sex with men in Bangkok, Thailand. AIDS 2005;19:521-6
19. van Griensven F, Varangrat A, Wimonsate W, et al. Trends in HIV prevalence, estimated HIV incidence, and risk behavior among men who have sex with men in Bangkok, Thailand, 2003-2007. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 2009
20. Aldridge RW, Iglesias D, Caceres CF, Miranda JJ. Determining a cost effective intervention response to HIV/AIDS in Peru. BMC Public Health 2009;9:352
21. UNAIDS, Ministry of Health of Ukraine. Ukraine: National report on monitoring progress toward the UNGASS Declaration of Commitment on HIV/AIDS. Reporting period: January 2006-December 2007. Kiev, 2008
22. International HIV/AIDS Alliance in Ukraine. Analytical report: estimation of the size of populations most-at-risk for HIV infection in ukraine in 2009. Kyiv: Alliance, 2010
23. Kruglov Y, Kobyshcha Y, Salyuk T. The most severe HIV epidemic in Europe: Ukraine's national HIV prevalence estimates for 2007. Sex Transm Infect 2008;84(Suppl. 1):i37-41
24. Baral S, Kizub D, Masenior NF, et al. Male sex workers in Moscow, Russia: a pilot study of demographics, substance use patterns, and prevalence of HIV-1 and sexually transmitted infections. AIDS Care 2010;22(1):112-8
25. WHO Regional Office for Europe. HIV prevalence and risks among men who have sex with men in Moscow and Saint Petersburg. Copenhagen, 2007
26. Amirkhanian YA, Kelly JA, Issayev DD. AIDS knowledge, attitudes, and behaviour in Russia: results of a population-based, random-digit telephone survey in St Petersburg. Int J STD AIDS 2001;12:50-7
27. Sifakis F, Peryskina A, Sergeev B. Rapid Assessment of HIV infection and associated risk behaviors among men who have sex with men in Russia. [Abstract MOPE0396]. XVII International AIDS Conference. Mexico City, Mexico, 2008
28. Kelly JA, Amirkhanian YA, McAuliffe TL, et al. HIV risk characteristics and prevention needs in a community sample of bisexual men in St. Petersburg, Russia. AIDS Care 2002;14:63-76
29. PSI Russia. HIV/AIDS TRaC Study of Risk, Health-seeking Behaviors, and Their Determinants, Among Men Who Have Sex with Men in Eight Regions of the Russian Federation. Second Round. Moscow: Russian Federation, 2008
30. Tyusova O, Verevochkin S, Heimer R. HIV in population groups recruited by respondent-driven sampling in St. Petersburg. [Abstract]. III Eastern Europe and Central Asia AIDS Conference. Moscow, Russia, 2009
31. Onyango-Ouma W, Birungi H, Geibel S. Understanding the HIV/STI Risks and prevention needs of men who have sex with men in Nairobi, Kenya. Nairobi, 2005
32. Ugarte Ubilluz O, Arce Rodriguez M, Acosta Saal C, Suarez Ognio L. Informe nacional sobre los progresos realizados en la aplicacion del ungass periodo: Enero 2008-Diciembre 2009. Lima, 2010 30 Marzo
33. UNAIDS, WHO. Epidemiological fact sheets on HIV and AIDS, 2008 Update-Peru. Report. Geneva: UNAIDS/WHO Working Group on Global HIV/ AIDS and STI Surveillance, 2008 December 2008
34. Family Health International, Bureau of AIDS TB and STIs, Department of Disease Control MOPH Thailand. The Asian Epidemic Model (AEM) Projections for HIV/AIDS in Thailand: 2005-2025: The Thai Working Group on HIV/AIDS Projections (2005), 2008
35. Wimonsate W, Chaikummao S, Tongtoyai J, Kittinunvorakoon C, Sriporn A, Varangrat A. Successful start of a preparatory HIV cohort study among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Bangkok, Thailand: preliminary baseline, follow-up and HIV incidence data (Abstract MOAC0105). XVII International AIDS Conference Mexico City, 2008
36. Beyrer C, Sripaipan T, Tovanabutra S, et al. High HIV, hepatitis C and sexual risks among drug-using men who have sex with men in northern Thailand. AIDS 2005;19:1535-40
37. Kunawararak P, Beyrer C, Natpratan C, et al. The epidemiology of HIV and syphilis among male commercial sex workers in northern Thailand. AIDS 1995;9:517-21
38. Chariyalertsak S, Kosachunhanan N, Saokhieo P, et al. HIV incidence, risk factors, and motivation for biomedical intervention among gay, bisexual men, and transgender persons in Northern Thailand. PLoS One 2011;6:e24295
39. National AIDS Prevention and Alleviation Committee (Thailand). UNGASS Country Progress Report: Thailand (Period January 2008-December 2009). Bangkok: National AIDS Prevention and Alleviation Committee, 2010
40. WHO. Antiretroviral therapy for HIV infection in adults and adolescents: 2010 revision. Geneva, 2010
41. Beyrer C, Wirtz A, Walker D, Johns B, Sifakis F, Baral S. The global HIV epidemics among men who have sex with men. Washington, DC, 2011. The World Bank. Available at: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTHIVAIDS/ Resources/375798-1103037153392/MSMReport.pdf
42. Caceres C, de Zalduondo B, Hallett T, Avila C, Clayton M. Combination HIV prevention: Crafting a new standard for the long-term response to HIV. International AIDS Conference; 2010 July 2010; Vienna, 2010
43. UNAIDS. UNAIDS Report on the Global AIDS Epidemic: 2010. Geneva, 2010
44. Strathdee S, Hallett T, Bobrova N, et al. HIV and risk environment for injecting drug users: the past, present, and future. Lancet 2010;376:268-84
45. Garnett GP, Cousens S, Hallett TB, Steketee R, Walker N. Mathematical models in the evaluation of health programmes. Lancet 2011;378:515-25
46. Grant R, Lama J, Anderson P, et al. Preexposure chemoprophylaxis for HIV prevention in men who have sex with men. N Engl J Med 2010;363:2587-99
47. Bollinger LA. How can we calculate the 'E' in 'CEA'? AIDS 2008;22(Suppl. 1): S51-7