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Volumn 5, Issue 2, 2013, Pages 133-147

The benefits and challenges of predictive interval forecasts and verification graphics for end users

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DATA; GRAPHICAL METHOD; PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE; TEMPERATURE; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 84879009195     PISSN: 19488327     EISSN: 19488335     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/WCAS-D-12-00007.1     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (22)

References (12)
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    • D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, and A. Tversky, Eds., Cambridge University Press
    • Alpert, M., and H. Raiffa, 1982: A progress report on the training of probability assessors. Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, and A. Tversky, Eds., Cambridge University Press, 294-305.
    • (1982) Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases , pp. 294-305
    • Alpert, M.1    Raiffa, H.2
  • 2
    • 12044259660 scopus 로고
    • Simultaneous over-and underconfidence: The role of error in judgment processes
    • Erev, I., T. S. Wallsten, and D. V. Budescu, 1994: Simultaneous over-and underconfidence: The role of error in judgment processes. Psychol. Rev., 101, 519-527.
    • (1994) Psychol. Rev. , vol.101 , pp. 519-527
    • Erev, I.1    Wallsten, T.S.2    Budescu, D.V.3
  • 3
    • 11944267218 scopus 로고
    • How to improve Bayesian reasoning without instruction: Frequency formats
    • Gigerenzer, G., and U. Hoffrage, 1995: How to improve Bayesian reasoning without instruction: Frequency formats. Psychol. Rev., 102, 684-704
    • (1995) Psychol. Rev. , vol.102 , pp. 684-704
    • Gigerenzer, G.1    Hoffrage, U.2
  • 5
    • 77954161511 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Communicating forecast uncertainty: Public perception of weather forecast uncertainty
    • Joslyn, S., and S. Savelli, 2010: Communicating forecast uncertainty: Public perception of weather forecast uncertainty. Meteor. Appl., 17, 180-195.
    • (2010) Meteor. Appl. , vol.17 , pp. 180-195
    • Joslyn, S.1    Savelli, S.2
  • 6
    • 84863786609 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Uncertainty forecasts improve weather-related decisions and attenuate the effects of forecast error
    • doi:10.1037/a0025185
    • -, and J. LeClerc, 2012: Uncertainty forecasts improve weather-related decisions and attenuate the effects of forecast error. J. Exp. Psychol., 18, 126-140, doi:10.1037/a0025185
    • (2012) J. Exp. Psychol. , vol.18 , pp. 126-140
    • Joslyn, S.1    Savelli, S.2    Leclerc, J.3
  • 8
    • 0344654895 scopus 로고
    • Credible interval temperature forecasting: Some experimental results
    • Murphy, A. H., and R. L. Winkler, 1974: Credible interval temperature forecasting: Some experimental results. Mon. Wea. Rev., 102, 784-794.
    • (1974) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.102 , pp. 784-794
    • Murphy, A.H.1    Winkler, R.L.2
  • 11
    • 20444497873 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Using Bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles
    • Raftery, A. E., T. Gneiting, F. Balabdaoui, and M. Polakowski, 2005: Using Bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 1155-1174.
    • (2005) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.133 , pp. 1155-1174
    • Raftery, A.E.1    Gneiting, T.2    Balabdaoui, F.3    Polakowski, M.4
  • 12
    • 33645638664 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A laboratory study of the benefits of including uncertainty information in weather forecasts
    • Roulston, M. S., G. E. Bolton, A. N. Kleit, and A. L. Sears-Collins, 2006: A laboratory study of the benefits of including uncertainty information in weather forecasts. Wea. Forecasting, 21, 116-122.
    • (2006) Wea. Forecasting , vol.21 , pp. 116-122
    • Roulston, M.S.1    Bolton, G.E.2    Kleit, A.N.3    Sears-Collins, A.L.4


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.