Optimal targeting of seasonal influenza vaccination toward younger ages is robust to parameter uncertainty

Vaccine

Volumn 31, Issue 30, 2013, Pages 3079-3089

  Ndeffo Mbah, Martial L ^a   Medlock, Jan ^b,c   Meyers, Lauren Ancel ^d   Galvani, Alison P ^a   Townsend, Jeffrey P ^a  

^a YALE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b CLEMSON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^c OREGON STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^d UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN   (United States)

Author keywords

Mathematical modeling; Optimization; Seasonal influenza; Vaccination

Indexed keywords

INFLUENZA VACCINE;

ADOLESCENT; ADULT; AGED; ARTICLE; CHILD; CONTROLLED STUDY; DEMOGRAPHY; DRUG EFFICACY; DRUG TARGETING; EPIDEMIOLOGICAL DATA; FEMALE; HEALTH SURVEY; HIGH RISK PATIENT; HOSPITALIZATION; HUMAN; INFANT; INFECTION CONTROL; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; MALE; MATHEMATICAL MODEL; MORTALITY; OUTCOME ASSESSMENT; PRESCHOOL CHILD; PRIORITY JOURNAL; SCHOOL CHILD; SEASONAL INFLUENZA; UNITED STATES;

ADOLESCENT; ADULT; AGED; CHILD; CHILD, PRESCHOOL; FEMALE; HOSPITALIZATION; HUMANS; INFLUENZA VACCINES; INFLUENZA, HUMAN; MALE; MASS VACCINATION; MODELS, THEORETICAL; PRACTICE GUIDELINES AS TOPIC; SEASONS; UNCERTAINTY; UNITED STATES; YOUNG ADULT;

EID: 84878964529     PISSN: 0264410X     EISSN: 18732518     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2013.04.052     Document Type: Article

References (38)

1. Molinari N.A., Ortega-Sanchez I.R., Messonnier M.L., Thompson W.W., Wortley P.M., Weintraub E., et al. The annual impact of seasonal influenza in the US: measuring disease burden and costs. Vaccine 2007, 25:5086-5096.
2. Monto A.S. The risk of seasonal and pandemic influenza: prospects for control. Clin Infect Dis 2009, 48(Suppl. 1):S20-S25.
3. Medlock J., Galvani A.P. Optimizing influenza vaccine distribution. Science 2009, 325:1705-1708.
4. Tuite A.R., Fishman D.N., Kwong J.C., Greer A.L. Optimal pandemic influenza vaccine allocation strategies for the Canadian population. PLoS ONE 2010, 5(5):e10520.
5. Mylius S., Hagenaars T., Lugner A., Wallinga J. Optimal allocation of pandemic influenza vaccine depends on age, risk and timing. Vaccine 2008, 26:3742-3749.
6. Matrajt L., Longini I.M. Optimizing vaccine allocation at different points in time during an epidemic. PLoS ONE 2011, 5(11):e13767.
7. Longini I.M., Ackerman E., Elveback L.R. An optimization model for influenza A epidemics. Math Biosci 1978, 38:141.
8. Goldstein E., Apolloni A., Lewis B., Miller J.C., Macauley M., Eubank S., et al. Distribution of vaccine/antivirals and the 'least spread line' in a stratified population. J R Soc Interface 2010, 7:755-764.
9. Earn D., Dushoff J., Levin S. Ecology and evolution of the flu. Trends Ecol Evol 2002, 17:334.
10. Carrat F., Flahault A. Influenza vaccine: the challenge of antigenic drift. Vaccine 2007, 25:6852-6862.
11. Eisenberg J.N.S., Aiello A.E., Spicknall I.H., Monto A.S., Reingold A. Protecting the herd from H1N1. Science 2009, 326:934.
12. Ndeffo Mbah M.L., Gilligan C.A. Optimization of culling strategies for epidemics in metapopulations with symmetric and asymmetric transmission. J Theor Biol 2010, 262:757-763.
13. Sterman J.D. Business dynamics: systems thinking and modeling for a complex world 2000, McGraw-Hill, New York, Irwin.
14. Bansal S., Pourbohloul B., Meyers L.A. A comparative analysis of influenza vaccination programs. PLoS Med 2006, 3(10):e387.
15. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Prevention and control of influenza with vaccines: recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), 2010. MMWR 2010, 59(RR-8):1-62.
16. Jefferson T., Di Pietrantonj C., Al-Ansary L.A., Ferroni E., Thorning S., Thomas R.E. Vaccines for preventing influenza in the elderly. Cochrane Database Syst Rev 2010, CD004876. PMID: 20166072.
17. Meltzer M.I., Cox N.J., Fukuda K. The economic impact of pandemic influenza in the United States: priority for intervention. Emerg Infect Dis 1999, 5:659-671.
18. Miller M.A., Viboud C., Olson D.R., Grais R.F., Rabaa R.A., Simonsen L. Prioritization of influenza pandemic vaccination to minimize years of life loss. J Infect Dis 2008, 198:305-311.
19. Cauchemez S., Carrat F., Viboud C., Valleron A.J., Boelle P.Y. A Bayesian MCMC approach to study transmission of influenza: application to household longitudinal data. Stat Med 2004, 23:3469-3487.
20. Balcan D., Hu H., Goncalves B., Bajardi P., Poletto C., Ramasco J.J., et al. Seasonal transmission potential and activity peaks of the new influenza A (H1N1): a Monte Carlo likelihood analysis based on human mobility. BMC Med 2009, 7:45.
21. Elveback L.R., Fox J.P., Ackerman E. An influenza simulation model for immunization studies. Am J Epidemiol 1976, 103:152-165.
22. Moser M.R., Bender T.R., Margolis H.S., Noble G.R., Kendal A.P., Ritter D.G. An outbreak of influenza aboard a commercial airliner. Am J Epidemiol 1979, 110:1-6.
23. Shinde V., Bridges C.B., Uyeki T.M., Shu B., Balish A., Xu X., et al. Triple-reassortant swine influenza A (H1) in humans in the United States, 2005-2009. N Engl J Med 2009, 360:2616-2625.
24. Longini I.M., Koopman J.S., Haber M.J., Cotsonis G.A. Statistical inference for infectious diseases: risk-specific household and community transmission parameters. Am J Epidemiol 1988, 123:845-859.
25. Chowel G., Miller M.A., Viboud C. Seasonal influenza in the United States, France and Australia: transmission and prospects for control. Epidemiol Infect 2008, 136:852-864.
26. Zimmerman R.K., Lauderdale D.S., Tan S.M., Wagener D.K. Prevalence of high-risk indications for influenza vaccine varies by age, race, and income. Vaccine 2010, 28:6470-6477.
27. Osterholm M., Kelley N.S., Sommer A., Belongia E.A. Efficacy and effectiveness of influenza vaccines: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Lancet Infect Dis 2012, 12:36-44.
28. Treanor J.J., Talbot H.K., Ohmit S.E., Coleman L.A., Thompson M.G., Cheng P.-Y., et al. Effectiveness of seasonal vaccines in the United States during a season with circulation of all three vaccines strains. Clin Infect Dis 2012, 55(7):951-959.
29. Marino S., Ian B., Ray C.J., Kirschner D.E. A methodology for performing global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in systems biology. J Theor Biol 2008, 254:178-196.
30. Saltelli A., Tarantola S. On the relative importance of input factors in mathematical models: safety assessment for nuclear waste disposal. J Am Stat Assoc 2002, 97(459):702-709.
31. Basta N.E., Chao D.L., Halloran M.E., Matrajt L., Longini I.M. Strategies for pandemic and seasonal influenza vaccination of schoolchildren in the United States. Am J Epidemiol 2009, 170(6):679-686.
32. Chao D.L., Halloran M.E., Obenchain V.J., Longini I.M. FLuTE, a publicly available stochastic influenza epidemic simulation model. PLoS Comp Biol 2010, 6(1):e1000656.
33. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Influenza vaccination coverage among children and adults - United States, 2008-09 influenza season. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2009, 58:1091-1095.
34. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Prevention and control of influenza with vaccines: recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), 2010. MMWR 2010, 59(RR-8).
35. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 2011 National Health Interview Survey 2012, [accessed 28.11.12]. http://www.cdc.gov/NCHS/nhis/nhis_2011_data_release.htm.
36. Cawley J., Hull H.F., Rosculp M.D. Strategies for implementing influenza vaccination of school-aged children - a systematic literature review. J Sch Health 2010, 80:167-175.
37. Hull H.F., Ambrose C.S. Current experience with school-located influenza vaccination programs in the United States. Hum Vaccin 2011, 7:153.
38. Fiore A.E., Epperson S., Perrotta D., Bernstein H., Neuzil K. Expanding the recommendations for annual influenza vaccination to school-age children in the United States. Pediatrics 2012, 129(Suppl. 2):S54-S62.