Multi-state modelling reveals sex-dependent transmission, progression and severity of tuberculosis in wild badgers

Epidemiology and Infection

Volumn 141, Issue 7, 2013, Pages 1429-1436

  Graham, J ^a   Smith, G C ^b   Delahay, R J ^b   Bailey, T ^a   McDonald, R A ^a   Hodgson, D ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF EXETER   (United Kingdom)

^b FOOD AND ENVIRONMENT RESEARCH AGENCY   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Bovine tuberculosis; European badger; State dependent modelling; Survival; Wildlife disease

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; BADGER; BOVINE TUBERCULOSIS; CONTROLLED STUDY; DISEASE COURSE; DISEASE SEVERITY; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; FEMALE; INFECTION RISK; MALE; MORTALITY; NONHUMAN; SEX; SURVIVAL RATE;

ANIMALS; CATTLE; DISEASE PROGRESSION; DISEASE RESERVOIRS; ENZYME-LINKED IMMUNOSORBENT ASSAY; FEMALE; GREAT BRITAIN; MALE; MODELS, STATISTICAL; MUSTELIDAE; MYCOBACTERIUM BOVIS; SEVERITY OF ILLNESS INDEX; SEX FACTORS; SURVIVAL ANALYSIS; TUBERCULOSIS; TUBERCULOSIS, BOVINE;

EID: 84878823070     PISSN: 09502688     EISSN: 14694409     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1017/S0950268812003019     Document Type: Article

References (38)

1. Jones KE, et al. Global trends in emerging infectious diseases. Nature 2008; 451: 990-994.
2. Chen HH, Duffy SW, Tabar L. A Markov chain method to estimate the tumour progression rate from preclinical to clinical phase, sensitivity and positive predictive value for mammography in breast cancer screening. Statistician 1996; 45: 307-317.
3. Dasbach EJ, Elbasha EH, Insinga RP. Mathematical models for predicting the epidemiologic and economic impact of vaccination against human papillomavirus infection and disease. Epidemiologic Reviews 2006; 28: 88-100.
4. Anderson RM, Trewhella W. Population-dynamics of the badger (Meles meles) and the epidemiology of bovine tuberculosis (Mycobacterium bovis). Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, Series B 1985; 310: 327-381.
5. Shirley MDF, et al. Investigating the spatial dynamics of bovine tuberculosis in badger populations: evaluating an individual-based simulation model. Ecological Modelling 2003; 167: 139-157.
6. Smith GC, et al. A model of bovine tuberculosis in the badger Meles meles: an evaluation of control strategies. Journal of Applied Ecology 2001; 38: 509-519.
7. Kramer-Schadt S, et al. Individual variations in infectiousness explain long-term disease persistence in wildlife populations. Oikos 2009; 118: 199-208.
8. Bourne FJ. Bovine TB: the scientific evidence. Final Report of the Independent Scientific Group on Cattle TB, 2007.
9. Gilbert M, et al. Cattle movements and bovine tuberculosis in Great Britain. Nature 2005; 435: 491-496.
10. Donnelly CA, et al. Positive and negative effects of widespread badger culling on tuberculosis in cattle. Nature 2006; 439: 843-846.
11. Griffin JM, et al. The impact of badger removal on the control of tuberculosis in cattle herds in Ireland. Preventive Veterinary Medicine 2005; 67: 237-266.
12. Gortazar C, et al. The status of tuberculosis in European wild mammals. Mammal Review 2012; 42: 193-206.
13. Judge J, et al. Effectiveness of biosecurity measures in preventing badger visits to farm buildings. PLoS One 2011; 6.
14. Chambers MA, et al. Bacillus calmette-guerin vaccination reduces the severity and progression of tuberculosis in badgers. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, Series B 2011; 278: 1913-1920.
15. Bentil DE, Murray JD. Modelling bovine tuberculosis in badgers. Journal of Animal Ecology 1993; 62: 239-250.
16. Smith GC, et al. Modelling bovine tuberculosis in badgers in England: Preliminary results. Mammalia 1995; 59: 639-650.
17. Smith GC, McDonald RA, Wilkinson D. Comparing badger (Meles meles) management strategies for reducing tuberculosis incidence in cattle. PLoS One 2012; 7.
18. Cheeseman CL, et al. Badger population dynamics in a high-density area. Symposia of the Zoological Society of London 1987; 58: 279-294.
19. Goodger J, et al. Serodiagnosis of Mycobacterium bovis infection in badgers-development of an indirect ELISA using a 25-kDa antigen. Veterinary Record 1994; 135: 82-85.
20. Clifton-Hadley RS, Wilesmith JW, Stuart FA. Mycobacterium bovis in the European badger (Meles meles)-epidemiologic findings in tuberculosis badgers from a naturally infected-population. Epidemiology and Infection 1993; 111: 9-19.
21. Drewe JA, et al. Diagnostic accuracy and optimal use of three tests for tuberculosis in live badgers. PLoS One 2010; 5.
22. Wilkinson D, et al. The effects of bovine tuberculosis (Mycobacterium bovis) on mortality in a badger (Meles meles) population in England. Journal of Zoology 2000; 250: 389-395.
23. Thorns CJ, Morris JA, Little TWA. A spectrum of immune-responses and pathological conditions between certain animal species to experimental Mycobacterium bovis infection. British Journal of Experimental Pathology 1982; 63: 562-572.
24. Blower SM, et al. The intrinsic transmission dynamics of tuberculosis epidemics. Nature Medicine 1995; 1: 815-821.
25. Corner LAL, Murphy D, Gormley E. Mycobacterium bovis infection in the Eurasian badger (Meles meles): the disease, pathogenesis, epidemiology and control. Journal of Comparative Pathology 2011; 144: 1-24.
26. Gallagher J, et al. Role of infected, non-diseased badgers in the pathogenesis of tuberculosis in the badger. Veterinary Record 1998; 142: 710-714.
27. Delahay RJ, et al. The spatio-temporal distribution of Mycobacterium bovis (bovine tuberculosis) infection in a high-density badger population. Journal of Animal Ecology 2000; 69: 428-441.
28. Clifton-Hadley RS, Sayers AR, Stock MP. Evaluation of an ELISA for Mycobacterium bovis infection in badgers (Meles meles). Veterinary Record 1995; 137: 555-558.
29. Greenwald R, et al. Improved serodetection of Mycobacterium bovis infection in badgers (Meles meles) using multiantigen test formats. Diagnostic Microbiology and Infectious Disease 2003; 46: 197-203.
30. Forrester GJ, Delahay RJ, Clifton-Hadley RS. Screening badgers (Meles meles) for Mycobacterium bovis infection by using multiple applications of an ELISA. Veterinary Record 2001; 149: 169-172.
31. White GC, Burnham KP. Program MARK: survival estimation from populations of marked animals. Bird Study 1999; 46: 120-139.
32. R Development Core Team. R: a language and environment for statistical computing. In: R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria, 2011.
33. Laake J. Rmark: R code for mark analysis. In: R package version 2.0.1, 2011.
34. Lebreton JD, et al. Modeling individual animal histories with multistate capture-recapture models. Advances in ecological research 2009: 41: 87-173.
35. Burnham KP, Anderson DR. Model Selection and Multimodel Inference: A Practical Information-Theoretic Approach. Springer-Verlag, New York, 2002.
36. McCallum H, Barlow N, Hone J. How should pathogen transmission be modelled? Trends in Ecology & Evolution 2001; 16: 295-300.
37. Delahay RJ, et al. Demographic correlates of bite wounding in Eurasian badgers, Meles meles, in stable and perturbed populations. Animal Behaviour 2006; 71: 1047-1055.
38. Cheeseman CL, et al. Dynamics of tuberculosis in a naturally infected badger population. Mammal Review 1988; 18: 61-72.