Uncertainties in daily rainfall over Africa: Assessment of gridded observation products and evaluation of a regional climate model simulation

International Journal of Climatology

Volumn 33, Issue 7, 2013, Pages 1805-1817

  Sylla, M B ^a   Giorgi, F ^a   Coppola, E ^a   Mariotti, L ^a  

^a ABDUS SALAM INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR THEORETICAL PHYSICS   (Italy)

Author keywords

Daily rainfall; Higher order statistics; Observation products; Regional climate model evaluation; Uncertainties

Indexed keywords

DAILY RAINFALL; GLOBAL PRECIPITATION CLIMATOLOGY PROJECTS; OBSERVATION PRODUCTS; REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL SIMULATION; REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS; REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS (REGCM3); TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSIONS; UNCERTAINTIES;

CLIMATE MODELS; FOOD SUPPLY; GLOBAL WARMING; HIGHER ORDER STATISTICS; LASERS; RAIN GAGES; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

RAIN;

CLIMATE MODELING; GLOBAL WARMING; MONSOON; PRECIPITATION ASSESSMENT; PRECIPITATION INTENSITY; RAINFALL; REGIONAL CLIMATE; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

EAST AFRICA; SOUTH AFRICA;

EID: 84878805166     PISSN: 08998418     EISSN: 10970088     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/joc.3551     Document Type: Article

References (56)

1. Anyah RO, Semazzi FHM, Xie L. 2006. Simulated physical mechanisms associated with climate variability over Lake Victoria Basin in East Africa. Monthly Weather Review 134: 3588-3609.
2. Anyah RO, Semazzi FHM. 2007. Variability of East African rainfall based on multiyear RegCM3 simulations. International Journal of Climatology 27: 357-371.
3. Buonomo E, Jones R, Huntingford C, Hannaford J. 2007. On the robustness of changes in extreme precipitation over Europe from two high resolution climate change simulations. Quarterly Journal of Royal Meteorological Society 133: 65-81.
4. Davis N, Bowden J, Semazzi F, Xie L, Önol B. 2009. Customization of RegCM3 regional climate model for Eastern Africa and a Tropical Indian Ocean Domain. Journal of Climate 22: 3595-3616.
5. Dickinson RE, Henderson-Sellers A, Kennedy PJ. 1993. Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) version 1E as coupled to the NCAR Community Climate Model. Technical Note NCAR/TN-387 + STR, 72 p.
6. Fritsch JM, Chappell CF. 1980. Numerical prediction of convectively driven mesoscale pressure systems. Part I. Convective parameterization. Journal of Atmospheric Science 37: 1722-1733.
7. Gao XJ, Zhao Z, Giorgi F. 2002. Changes of extreme events in regional climate simulations over East Asia. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 19: 927-942.
8. Giorgi F, Marinucci MR, Bates GT. 1993a. Development of a second-generation regional climate model (RegCM2). Part I. Boundary-layer and radiative transfer processes. Monthly Weather Review 121(10): 2794-2813.
9. Giorgi F, Marinucci MR, Bates GT, Canio GD. 1993b. Development of a Second-Generation Regional Climate Model (RegCM2). Part II. Convective processes and assimilation of lateral boundary conditions. Monthly Weather Review 121: 2814-2832.
10. Giorgi F, Jones C, Asrar G. 2009. Addressing climate information needs at the regional level. The CORDEX framework. WMO Bulletin, July 2009 issue.
11. Grell GA, Dudhia J, Stauffer DR. 1994. Description of the fifth generation Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5). Technical Note NCAR/TN-398 + STR, 121 p.
12. Halenka T, Kalvová J, Chládová Z, Demeterová A, Zemánková K, Belda M. 2006. On the capability of RegCM to capture extremes in long term regional climate simulation-comparison with the observations for Czech Republic. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 86: 125-145, DOI: 10.1007/S00704-005-0205-5.
13. Herman A, Kumar VB, Arkin PA Kousky JV. 1997. Objectively determined 10-day African rainfall estimates created for famine early warning systems. International Journal of Remote Sensing 18: 2147-2159.
14. Holtslag AAM, De Bruin EIF, Pan HL. 1990. A high resolution air mass transformation model for short-range weather forecasting. Monthly Weather Review 118: 1561-1575.
15. Hourdin F, Musat I, Guichard F, Ruti PM, Favot F, Filiberti MA, Pham M, Grandpeix JY, Polcher J, Marquet P, Boone A, Lafore JP, Redelsperger JL, Dell'aquila A, Losada Doval T, Khadre Traore A, Gallée H. 2010. AMMA-Model Intercomparison Project. Bulletin of American Meteorological Society 91: 95-104, DOI: 10.1175/2009BAMS2791.1.
16. Huffman GJ, Adler RF, Morrissey M, Bolvin D, Curtis S, Joyce R, McGavock B, Susskind J. 2001. Global precipitation at one-degree daily resolution from multi-satellite observations. Journal of Hydrometeorology 2: 36-50.
17. Huffman GJ, Bolvin DT, Nelkin EJ, Wolff DB, Adler RF, Gu G, Hong Y, Bowman KP, Stocker EF. 2007. The TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA): Quasi-Global, Multiyear, Combined-Sensor Precipitation Estimates at Fine Scales. Journal of Hydrometeorology 8: 38-55.
18. Im ES, Jung IW, Bae DH. 2011. The temporal and spatial structures of recent and future trends in extreme indices over Korea from a regional climate projection. International Journal of Climatology 31: 72-86, DOI: 10.1002/joc.2063.
19. Jury MR. 1999. Intra-seasonal convective variability over southern Africa: principal component analysis of pentad outgoing-longwave radiation departures 1976-1994. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 62: 133-146.
20. Kiehl JT, Hack JJ, Bonan GB, Boville BA, Briegleb BP, Williamson DL, Rasch PJ. 1996. Description of the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM3). Technical Note NCAR/TN-420 + STR, 152 p.
21. Kummerow C, Hong Y, Olson WS, Yang S, Adler RF, McCollum J, Ferraro R, Petty G, Shin DB, Wilheit TT. 2001. The evolution of the Goddard profiling algorithm (GPROF) for rainfall estimation from passive microwave sensors. Journal of Applied Meteorology 40: 1801-1840.
22. Le Barbe L, Lebel T, Tapsoba D. 2002. Rainfall variability in West Africa during the years 1950-1990. Journal of Climate 15(2): 187-202.
23. Liu H, Zhang DL, Wang B. 2010. Impact of horizontal resolution on the regional climate simulations of the summer 1998 extreme rainfall along the Yangtze River Basin. Journal of Geophysical Research 115: D12115, DOI: 10.1029/2009JD012746.
24. Love TB, Kumar V, Xie PP, Thiaw W. 2004. A 20-year daily Africa precipitation climatology using satellite and gauge data. Preprints, 14th Conference on Applied Climatology, Seattle, WA, American Meteorological Society P5.4.
25. Marengo JA, Jones R, Alves LM, Valverde MC. 2009. Future change of temperature and precipitation extremes in South America as derived from the PRECIS regional climate modeling system. International Journal of Climatology 29: 2241-2255.
26. May W. 2008. Potential future changes in the characteristics of daily precipitation in Europe simulated by the HIRHAM regional climate model. Climate Dynamics 30: 581-603.
27. Meehl GA, Arblaster JM, Tebaldi C. 2007. Contributions of natural and anthropogenic forcing to changes in temperature extremes over the United States. Geophysical Research Letters 34: L19709, DOI: 10.1029/2007GL030948.
28. Mitchell TD, Carter TR, Jones PD, Hulme M, New M. 2004. A Comprehensive Set of High-Resolution Grids of Monthly Climate for Europe and the Globe: The Observed Record (1901-2000) and 16 Scenarios (2001-2100). Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Norwich, UK, Working Paper 55.
29. Paeth H, Born K, Podzun R, Jacob D. 2005. Regional dynamical downscaling over West Africa: model evaluation and comparison of wet and dry years. Meteorologische Zeitschrift 14(3): 349-367.
30. Paeth H. 2010. Postprocessing of simulated precipitation for impact studies in west Africa. Part I. Model output statistics for monthly data. Climate Dynamics 36: 1321-1336, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0760-x.
31. Pal JS, Small EE, Eltahir EAB. 2000. Simulation of regional-scale water and energy budgets: Representation of subgrid cloud and precipitation processes within RegCM. Journal of Geophysical Research 105: 29579-29594.
32. Pal JS, Giorgi F, Bi X, Elguindi N, Solomon F, Gao X, Francisco R, Zakey A, Winter J, Ashfaq M, Syed F, Bell JL, Diffanbaugh NS, Kamacharya J, Konare A, Martinez D, da Rocha RP, Sloan LC, Steiner A. 2007. The ICTP RegCM3 and RegCNET: Regional climate modeling for the developing world. Bulletin of American Meteorological Society 88: 1395-1409.
33. Park JS, Jung HS, Kim RS, Oh JH. 2001. Modelling summer extreme rainfall over the Korean peninsula using wakeby distribution. International Journal of Climatology 21: 1371-1384.
34. Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, Van Der Linden PJ Hanson CE. 2007. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK and New York, NY.
35. Rahimzadeh F, Asgari A, Fattahi E. 2009. Variability of extreme temperature and precipitation in Iran during recent decades. International Journal of Climatology 29: 329-343, DOI: 10.1002/joc.1739.
36. Rocha A, Melo-Goncalves P, Marques C, Ferreira J, Castanheira JM. 2008. High-frequency precipitation changes in southeastern Africa due to anthropogenic forcing. International Journal of Climatology 28: 1239-1253, DOI: 10.1002/joc.1596.
37. Segele ZT, Leslie LM, Lamb PJ. 2009a. Evaluation and adaptation of a regional climate model for the Horn of Africa: rainfall climatology and interannual variability. International Journal of Climatology 29: 47-65, DOI: 10.1002/joc.1681.
38. Segele ZT, Lamb PJ, Leslie LM. 2009b. Large-scale atmospheric circulation and global sea surface temperature associations with Horn of Africa June-September rainfall. International Journal of Climatology 29: 1075-1100, DOI: 10.1002/joc.1751.
39. Schmidli J, Frei C. 2005. Trends of heavy precipitation and wet and dry spells in Switzerland during the 20th century. International Journal of Climatology 25: 753-771.
40. Shongwe ME, van Oldenborgh GJ, van den Hurk BJJM, de Boer B, Coelho CAS, van Aalst MK. 2009. Projected Changes in Mean and Extreme Precipitation in Africa under Global Warming. Part I. Southern Africa. Journal of Climate 22: 3819-3837.
41. Simmons AS, Uppala DD, Kobayashi S. 2007. ERA-Interim: New ECMWF reanalysis products from 1989 onwards. ECMWF Newsletter 110: 29-35.
42. Song Y, Semazzi FHM, Xie L., Ogallo LJ. 2004. A coupled regional climate model for the Lake Victoria basin of East Africa. International Journal of Climatology 24: 57-75, DOI: 10.1002/joc.983.
43. Sultan B, Janicot S. 2000. Abrupt shift of the ITCZ over West Africa and intra-seasonal variability. Geophysical Research Letters 27: 3353-3356.
44. Sylla MB, Dell'Aquila A, Ruti PM, Giorgi F. 2010a. Simulation of the intraseasonal and the interannual variability of rainfall over West Africa with RegCM3 during the monsoon period. International Journal of Climatology 30: 1865-1883, DOI: 10.1002/joc.2029.
45. Sylla MB, Gaye AT, Jenkins GS, Pal JS, Giorgi F. 2010b. Consistency of projected drought over the Sahel with changes in the monsoon circulation and extremes in a regional climate model projections. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmosphere 115: D16108, DOI: 10.1029/2009JD012983.
46. Sylla MB, Coppola E, Mariotti L, Giorgi F, Ruti PM, Dell'Aquila A, Bi X. 2010c. Multiyear simulation of the African climate using a regional climate model (RegCM3) with the high resolution ERA-interim reanalysis. Climate Dynamics 35: 231-247, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-009-0613-9.
47. Sylla MB, Giorgi F, Ruti PM, Calmanti S, Dell'Aquila A. 2011. The impact of deep convection on the West African summer monsoon climate: a regional climate model sensitivity study. Quarterly Journal of Royal Meteorological Society 137: 1417-1430, DOI: 10.1002/qj.853.
48. Sylla MB, Gaye AT, Jenkins, GS. 2012. On the fine-scale topography regulating changes in atmospheric hydrological cycle and extreme rainfall over West Africa in a regional climate model projections. International Journal of Geophysics 2012, Article ID 981649, DOI: 10.1155/2012/981649.
49. Tolika K, Anagnostopoulou C, Maheras P, Vafiadis M. 2008. Simulation of future changes in extreme rainfall and temperature conditions over the Greek area: a comparison of two statistical downscaling approaches. Global and Planetary Change 63: 132-151.
50. Torma C, Coppola E, Giorgi F, Bartholy J, Pongracz R. 2011. Validation of a high resolution version of the regional climate model RegCM3 over the Carpathian Basin. Journal of Hydrometeorology 12: 84-100.
51. Uppala S, Dee D, Kobayashi S, Berrisford P, Simmons A. 2008. Towards a climate data assimilation system: status update of ERA-Interim. ECMWF Newsletter 115: 12-18.
52. Vizy E, Cook K. 2002. Development and application of a mesoscale climate model for the tropics: Influence of sea surface temperature anomalies on the West African monsoon. Journal of Geophysical Research 107:D(3), DOI: 10.1029/2001JD000686.
53. Walker MD, Diffenbaugh NS. 2009. Evaluation of high-resolution simulations of daily-scale temperature and precipitation over the United States. Climate Dynamics 33: 1131-1147, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-009-0603-y.
54. Wehner MF, Smith R, Duffy P, Bala G. 2009. The effect of horizontal resolution on simulation of very extreme US precipitation events in a global atmosphere model. Climate Dynamics 34: 241-247.
55. Williams CJR, Kniveton DR, Layberry R. 2010. Assessment of a climate model to reproduce rainfall variability and extremes over Southern Africa. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 99: 9-27.
56. Zeng X, Zhao M, Dickinson RE. 1998. Intercomparison of bulk aerodynamic algorithms for the computation of sea surface fluxes using TOGA COARE and TAO data. Journal of Climate 11: 2628-2644.