Probabilistic flood risk assessment over large geographical regions

Water Resources Research

Volumn 49, Issue 6, 2013, Pages 3330-3344

  Dyck, Jozef Van ^a   Willems, Patrick ^b  

^a Probabilitas NV   (Belgium)

^b UNIVERSITY OF LEUVEN   (Belgium)

Author keywords

flood damage; flood loss; probabilistic modeling; river flooding

Indexed keywords

FLOOD DAMAGE; RISK ASSESSMENT; RIVERS; TOPOGRAPHY;

FLOOD LOSS; FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENTS; HISTORICAL FLOODS; IMPLEMENTATION COST; PHYSICALLY BASED MODELS; PROBABILISTIC MODELING; RESIDENTIAL BUILDING; RIVER FLOODING;

GEOGRAPHICAL REGIONS;

FLOOD DAMAGE; FLOODING; GEOGRAPHICAL REGION; HISTORICAL RECORD; HYDROLOGICAL MODELING; PRECIPITATION INTENSITY; PROBABILITY; RESIDENTIAL LOCATION; RISK ASSESSMENT; RIVER SYSTEM; TOPOGRAPHY;

BELGIUM;

EID: 84878785286     PISSN: 00431397     EISSN: 19447973     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/wrcr.20149     Document Type: Article

References (55)

1. Apel, H., A. H. Thienken, B. Merz, and, G. Blöschl, (2004), Flood risk assessment and associated uncertainty. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 4, 295-308.
2. Apel, H., B. Merz, and, A. H. Thieken, (2008), Quantification of uncertainties in flood risk assessments, Int. J. River Basin Manage., 6 (2), 149-162.
3. Bishop, Y. M. M., S. E. Fienberg, and, P. W. Holland, (1975), Discrete Multivariate Analysis-Theory and Practice, MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass.
4. Black, A., and, S. Evans, (1999), Flood damage in the UK: New insights for the insurance industry, Report, Univ. of Dundee, Geogr. Dep., Dundee, ISBN no. 9780903674379.
5. Bonnin, J., (1995), Les scientifiques et leur savoir-faire face aux risques naturels, Ciel et Terre, 111 (6), 167-178. (Pubitemid 126011732)
6. Christensen, J. H., T. R. Carter, M. Rummukainen, and, G. Amanatidis, (2007), Evaluating the performance and utility of regional climate models: The PRUDENCE project, Clim. Change, 81, 1-6. (Pubitemid 46716672)
7. Colby, J. D., K. A. Mulcahy, and, Y. Wang, (2000), Modeling flooding extent from Hurricane Floyd in the coastal plains of North Carolina, Environ. Hazards, 2, 157-168. (Pubitemid 33030610)
8. Connell, R. J., D. J. Painter, and, C. Beffa, (2001), Two-dimensional flood plain flow. II. Model validation, J. Hydrol. Eng., 6 (5), 406-415. (Pubitemid 32818654)
9. Cunha, L. K., W. F. Krajewski, R. Mantilla, and, L. Cunha, (2011), A framework for flood risk assessment under nonstationary conditions or in the absence of historical data, J. Flood Risk Manage., 4, 3-22.
10. Dawson, R., J. Hall, P. Sayers, P. Bates, and, C. Rosu, (2005), Sampling-based flood risk analysis for fluvial dike systems, Stochastic Environ. Res. Risk Assess., 19, 388-402. (Pubitemid 41801065)
11. De Lannoy, G. J. M., N. E. C. Verhoest, and, F. P. De Troch, (2005), Characteristics of rainstorms over a temperate region derived from multiple time series of weather radar images, J. Hydrol., 307 (1-4), 126-144. (Pubitemid 40743122)
12. Delbeke, L., and, G. Demarée, (2000), IDF-curves of rainfall based on long duration pluviographic observations in Belgium [in Dutch], Report, Royal Meteorol. Inst. of Belgium, Uccle, Belgium.
13. Demarée, G. R., (2003), Le pluviographe centenaire du Plateau d'Uccle: son histoire, ses données et ses applications, La Houille Blanche, 4, 95-102. (Pubitemid 37190250)
14. De Moel, H., and, J. Aerts, (2011), Effect of uncertainty in land use, damage models and inundation depth on flood damage estimates, Nat. Hazards, 58 (1), 407-425.
15. Ernst, J., B. J. Dewals, S. Detrembleur, P. Archambeau, S. Erpicum, and, M. Pirotton, (2010), Micro-scale flood risk analysis based on detailed 2D hydraulic modelling and high resolution geographic data, Nat. Hazards, 55, 181-209.
16. Few, R., (2006), Vulnerability and risk reduction, in Flood Hazards and Health, edited by, R. Few, and, F. Matthies, pp. 8-27, London, Earthscan.
17. Fleming, G., (2002), How can we learn to live with rivers? The findings of the Institution of Civil Engineers Presidential Commission on Flood-risk management, Philos. Trans. R. Soc. A, 360, 1527-1530.
18. Green, C., C. Viavattene, and, P. Thompson, (2011), Guidance for assessing flood losses: CONHAZ report, WP6 Report, Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex Univ, Middlesex.
19. Hall, J., and, D. Solomatine, (2008), A framework for uncertainty analysis in flood risk management decisions, Int. J. River Basin Manage., 6 (2), 85-98.
20. Hall, J. W., P. B. Sayers, and, R. J. Dawson, (2005), National-scale assessment of current and future flood risk in England and Wales, Nat. Hazards, 36, 147-164. (Pubitemid 41038775)
21. Helms, M., B. Büchele, U. Merkel, and, J. Ihringer, (2002), Statistical analysis of the flood situation and assessment of the impact of diking measures along the Elbe (Labe) river, J. Hydrol., 267, 94-114.
22. Hunt, J. C. R., (2002), Floods in a changing climate: A review, Philos. Trans. R. Soc. A, 360, 1531-1543.
23. Jonkman, S. N., P. H. A. J. M. van Gelder, J. K. Vrijling (2003), An overview of quantitative risk measures for loss of life and economic damage, Journal of Hazardous Materials, A99, 1-30. (Pubitemid 36401603)
24. Kok, M., J. K. Vrijling, P. H. A. J. M. Van Gelder, and, M. P. Vogelsang, (2002), Risk of flooding and insurance in The Netherlands, in Flood Defence 2002, edited by B. Wu et al., pp. 146-154, Science Press, New York.
25. Kreibich, H., I. Seifert, B. Merz, and, A. H. Thieken, (2010), Development of FLEMOcs-A new model for the estimation of flood losses in the commercial sector, Hydrol. Sci. J., 55 (8), 1302-1314.
26. Kron, W., (2002), Flood risk = hazard × exposure × vulnerability, in Flood Defence 2002, edited by B. Wu et al., pp. 82-97, Science Press, New York.
27. Menabde, M., A. Seed, and, G. Pegram, (1999), A simple scaling model for extreme rainfall, Water Resour. Res., 35 (1), 335-339. (Pubitemid 29054173)
28. Merz, B., and, A.H. Thieken, (2009), Flood risk curves and uncertainty bounds, Nat. Hazards, 51 (3), 437-458.
29. Milly, P. C. D., R. T. Wetherald, K. A. Dunne, and, T. L. Delworth, (2002), Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate, Nature, 415, 514-517. (Pubitemid 34130603)
30. Morrow, B., (1999), Identifying and mapping community vulnerability, Disasters, 23, 1-18. (Pubitemid 29231445)
31. Noman, N. S., E. J. Nelson, and, A. K. Zundel, (2001), Review of automated floodplain delineation from digital terrain models, J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 127 (6), 394-402. (Pubitemid 33066772)
32. Olsson, J., and, Niemczynowicz, J., (1996), Multifractal analysis of daily spatial rainfall distributions, J. Hydrol., 187, 29-43.
33. Onof, C., R. E. Chandler, A. Kakou, P. J. Northrop, H. S. Wheather, and, V. Isham, (2000), Rainfall modeling using Poisson-cluster processes, Stochastic Environ. Res. Risk Assess., 14, 384-411.
34. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) (2008), Policy Issues in Insurance Financial Management of Large-Scale Catastrophes, 312 p., OECD Publishing, Paris, France.
35. Pender, G., and, S. Neelz, (2007), Use a computer model of flood inundation to facilitate communication in flood risk management, Environ. Hazard, 7, 106-114. (Pubitemid 47444603)
36. Penning-Rowsell, E. C., and, J. B. Chatterton, (1977), The Benefits of Flood Alleviation: A Manual of Assessment Techniques, Gower/Saxon House, Aldershot, England.
37. Penning-Rowsell, E. C., and, C. H. Green, (2000), New insights into the appraisal of flood alleviation benefits. I. Flood damage and flood loss information, J. Inst. Water Environ. Manage., 14, 347-353.
38. Plate, E. J., (2002), Flood risk and flood management, J. Hydrol., 267, 2-11.
39. Räisänen, J., U. Hansson, A. Ullerstig, R. Döscher, L. P. Graham, C. Jones, H. E. M. Meier, P. Samuelsson, and, U. Willén, (2004), European climate in the late twenty-first century: Regional simulations with two driving global models and two forcing scenarios, Clim. Dyn., 22, 13-31. (Pubitemid 38225626)
40. Tessier, Y., S. Lovejoy, and, D. Schertzer, (1993), Universal multifractals: Theory and observations for rain and clouds, J. Appl. Meteorol., 32, 223-250. (Pubitemid 23381912)
41. Thieken, A. H., et al. (2008), Methods for the evaluation of direct and indirect flood losses, paper presented at the 4th International Symposium on Flood Defence "Managing Flood Risk, Reliability and Vulnerability", Toronto, Ont., Canada, 6-8 May 2008.
42. Townsend, P. A., and, S. J. Walsh, (1998), Modeling floodplain inundation using an integrated GIS with radar and optical remote sensing, Geomorphology, 21, 295-312.
43. Tu, M., M. J. Hall, P. J. M. de Laat, and, M. J. M. de Wit, (2005), Extreme floods in the Meuse river over the past century: Aggravated by land-use changes? Phys. Chem. Earth, 30 (4-5), 267-276. (Pubitemid 40757810)
44. Vaes, G., P. Willems, and, J. Berlamont, (2005), Areal rainfall correction coefficients for small urban catchments, Atmos. Res., 77, 48-59, doi: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2004.10.015. (Pubitemid 41487402)
45. van der Linden, P., and, J. F. B. Mitchell, (Eds.) (2009), ENSEMBLES: Climate Change and its impacts: Summary of research and results from the ENSEMBLES project, 160 pp., Met Office Hadley Centre, U.K.
46. Van der Veen, A., and, C. Logtmeijer, (2005), Economic hotspots: Visualizing vulnerability to flooding, Nat. Hazards, 36, 65-80. (Pubitemid 41038771)
47. Van Steenbergen, N., J. Ronsyn, and, P. Willems, (2012), Non-parametric data-based approach for probabilistic flood forecasting in support of uncertainty communication, Environ. Modell. Software, 33, 92-105.
48. Vanneuville, W., Ph. De Maeyer, K. Maeghe, and, F. Mostaert, (2003), Model of the effects of a flood in the Dender catchment, based on a risk methodology, Bull. Soci. Cartogr., 37 (2), 59-64. (Pubitemid 38345775)
49. Verhoest, N., P. A. Troch, and, F. P. De Troch, (1997), On the applicability of Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulses models for calculating design storms at a point, J. Hydrol., 202 (1-4), 108-120. (Pubitemid 28118038)
50. Wermer, M., (2004), A comparison of flood extent modelling approaches through constraining uncertainties on gauge data, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 8 (6), 1141-1152.
51. Willems, P., (2000), Compound intensity/duration/frequency-relationships of extreme precipitation for two seasons and two storm types, J. Hydrol., 233, 189-205. (Pubitemid 30388026)
52. Willems, P., (2001), A spatial rainfall generator for small spatial scales, J. Hydrol., 252, 126-144. (Pubitemid 32812219)
53. Willems, P., (2009), A time series tool to support the multi-criteria performance evaluation of rainfall-runoff models, Environ. Modell. Software, 24 (3), 311-321.
54. Willems, P., (2013), Adjustment of extreme rainfall statistics accounting for multidecadal climate oscillations, J. Hydrol., 490, 126-133.
55. Willems, P., G. Vaes, D. Popa, L. Timbe, and, J. Berlamont, (2002), Quasi 2D river flood modelling, in River Flow 2002, vol. 2, edited by, D. Bousmar, and, Y. Zech, pp. 1253-1259, Swets & Zeitlinger, Lisse, Netherlands.