A comparison of CMIP3 simulations of precipitation over north america with observations: Daily statistics and circulation features accompanying extreme events

Journal of Climate

Volumn 26, Issue 10, 2013, Pages 3209-3230

  DeAngelis, Anthony M ^a   Broccoli, anthony J ^a   Decker, Steven G ^a  

^a Rutgers University   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION; ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS AND THERMODYNAMICS; CLIMATE MODEL SIMULATIONS; CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION; COUPLED MODEL INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT; EXTREME PRECIPITATION; EXTREME PRECIPITATION EVENTS; LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION;

CLIMATE MODELS; CLIMATOLOGY; MODELS; PRECIPITATION (METEOROLOGY); THERMODYNAMICS;

LASERS;

ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION; ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS; CLIMATE MODELING; EXTREME EVENT; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); STATISTICAL ANALYSIS; THERMODYNAMICS;

NORTH AMERICA;

EID: 84878130371     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00374.1     Document Type: Article

References (65)

1. Alexander, L. V., and J. M. Arblaster, 2009: Assessing trends in observed and modelled climate extremes over Australia in relation to future projections. Int. J. Climatol., 29, 417-435.
2. Allan, R. P., and B. J. Soden, 2008: Atmospheric warming and the amplification of precipitation extremes. Science, 321, 1481- 1484.
3. Archambault, H. M., L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and A. R. Aiyyer, 2008: Influence of large-scale flow regimes on cool-season precipitation in the northeastern United States. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 2945-2963.
4. Bengtsson, L., M. Botzet, and M. Esch, 1995: Hurricane-type vortices in a general circulation model. Tellus, 47, 175-196.
5. Boberg, F., P. Berg, P. Thejll,W. J. Gutowski, and J.H. Christensen, 2009: Improved confidence in climate change projections of precipitation evaluated using daily statistics from the PRUDENCE ensemble. Climate Dyn., 32, 1097-1106.
6. Boroneant, C., G. Plaut, F. Giorgi, and X. Bi, 2006: Extreme precipitation over the Maritime Alps and associated weather regimes simulated by a regional climate model: Presentday and future climate scenarios. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 86, 81-99.
7. Changnon, S. A., 2001: Thunderstorm rainfall in the conterminous United States. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82, 1925-1940.
8. Chen, C., and T. Knutson, 2008: On the verification and comparison of extreme rainfall indices from climate models. J. Climate, 21, 1605-1621.
9. Chen, M., and Coauthors, 2008a: CPC unified gauge-based analysis of global daily precipitation. Eos, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 89 (Western Pacific Geophysics Meeting Suppl.), Abstract A24A-05. [Available online at ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/precip/CPC_UNI_PRCP/GAUGE_GLB/DOCU/Chen_ et_al_2008_Daily_Gauge_Anal.pdf.]
10. Chen, M., and Coauthors, 2008b: Quality control of daily precipitation reports at NOAA/CPC. Extended Abstracts, 12th Conf. on IOAS-AOLS, New Orleans, LA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 3.3. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/ 131381.pdf.]
11. Chen, M., and Coauthors, 2008c: Assessing objective techniques for gauge-based analyses of global daily precipitation. J. Geophys. Res., 113, D04110, doi:10.1029/2007JD009132.
12. Christian, H. J., and Coauthors, 2003: Global frequency and distribution of lightning as observed from space by the Optical TransientDetector. J.Geophys. Res., 108,D14005, doi:10.1029/2002JD002347.
13. Colle, B. A., and C. F. Mass, 2000: The 5-9 February 1996 flooding event over the Pacific Northwest: Sensitivity studies and evaluation of the MM5 precipitation forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 593-617.
14. Dai, A., 2001: Global precipitation and thunderstorm frequencies. Part I: Seasonal and interannual variations. J. Climate, 14, 1092-1111.
15. Dulière, V., Y. Zhang, and E. P. Salathé Jr., 2011: Extreme precipitation and temperature over the U.S. Pacific Northwest: A comparison between observations, reanalysis data, and regional models. J. Climate, 24, 1950-1964.
16. Easterling, D. R., G. A. Meehl, C. Parmesan, S. A. Changnon, T. R. Karl, and L. O. Mearns, 2000: Climate extremes: Observations, modeling, and impacts. Science, 289, 2068-2074.
17. Emori, S., and S. J. Brown, 2005: Dynamic and thermodynamic changes in mean and extreme precipitation under changed climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L17706, doi:10.1029/2005GL023272.
18. Emori, S., A. Hasegawa, T. Suzuki, and K. Dairaku, 2005: Validation, parameterization dependence, and future projection of daily precipitation simulated with a high-resolution atmospheric GCM. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L06708, doi:10.1029/2004GL022306.
19. Frei, C., J. H. Christenson, M. Déqué , D. Jacob, R. G. Jones, and P. L. Vidale, 2003: Daily precipitation statistics in regional climate models: Evaluation and intercomparison for the European Alps. J. Geophys. Res., 108, D34102, doi:10.1029/2002JD002287.
20. Gastineau, G., and B. J. Soden, 2011: Evidence for a weakening of tropical surface wind extremes in response to atmospheric warming. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L09706, doi:10.1029/2011GL047138.
21. Gutowski, W. J., S. G. Decker, R. A. Donavon, Z. Pan, R. W. Arritt, and E. S. Takle, 2003: Temporal-spatial scales of observed and simulated precipitation in central U.S. climate. J. Climate, 16, 3841-3847.
22. Gutowski, W. J., and Coauthors, 2008a: Causes of observed changes in extremes and projections of future changes. Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate-Regions of Focus: North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific Islands, T. R. Karl et al., Eds., National Climatic Data Center, 81- 116.
23. Gutowski, W. J., S. S. Willis, J. C. Patton, B. R. J. Schwedler, R.W. Arritt, and E. S. Takle, 2008b: Changes in extreme, cold-season synoptic precipitation events under global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L20710, doi:10.1029/2008GL035516.
24. Hart, R. E., and R. H. Grumm, 2001: Using normalized climatological anomalies to rank synoptic-scale events objectively. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 2426-2442.
25. Higgins, R. W., W. Shi, E. Yarosh, and R. Joyce, 2000: Improved United States precipitation quality control system and analysis. NCEP/Climate Prediction Center Atlas 7, 40 pp. [Available online at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research_papers/ncep_cpc_atlas/7/.]
26. Holton, J. R., 2004: An Introduction to Dynamic Meteorology. 4th ed. Elsevier Academic, 535 pp.
27. Hoskins, B. J., I. Draghici, and H. C. Davies, 1978: A new look at the v-equation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 104, 31-38.
28. Iorio, J. P., and Coauthors, 2004: Effects of model resolution and subgrid-scale physics on the simulation of precipitation in the continental United States. Climate Dyn., 23, 243-258.
29. Kharin, V. V., and F. W. Zwiers, 2005: Estimating extremes in transient climate change simulations. J. Climate, 18, 1156- 1173.
30. Kharin, V. V., and F. W. Zwiers, X. Zhang, and G. C. Hegerl, 2007: Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the IPCC ensemble of global coupled model simulations. J. Climate, 20, 1419-1444.
31. Kiktev, D., D. M. H. Sexton, L. Alexander, and C. K. Folland, 2003: Comparison of modeled and observed trends in indices of daily climate extremes. J. Climate, 16, 3560-3571.
32. Kimoto, M., N. Yasutomi, C. Yokoyama, and S. Emori, 2005: Projected changes in precipitation characteristics around Japan under the global warming. SOLA, 1, 85-88.
33. Kunkel, K. E., D. R. Easterling, D. A. R. Kristovich, B. Gleason, L. Stoecker, and R. Smith, 2010: Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L24706, doi:10.1029/2010GL045164.
34. Kunkel, K. E., D. R. Easterling, D. A. R. Kristovich, B. Gleason, L. Stoecker, and R. Smith, 2012: Meteorological causes of the secular variations in observed extreme precipitation events for the conterminous United States. J. Hydrometeor., 13, 1131-1141.
35. Lau, K.-M., Y. P. Zhou, and H.-T. Wu, 2008: Have tropical cyclones been feeding more extreme rainfall? J. Geophys. Res., 113, D23113, doi:10.1029/2008JD009963.
36. Lenderink, G., and E. van Meijgaard, 2008: Increase in hourly precipitation extremes beyond expectations from temperature changes. Nat. Geosci., 1, 511-514.
37. Li, F., W. D. Collins, M. F. Wehner, D. L. Williamson, J. G. Olson, and C. Algieri, 2011: Impact of horizontal resolution on simulation of precipitation extremes in an aqua-planet version of Community Atmospheric Model (CAM3). Tellus, 63A, 884- 892.
38. Li, F., D. Rosa, W. D. Collins, and M. F. Wehner, 2012: "Superparameterization": A better way to simulate regional extreme precipitation? J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 4, M04002, doi:10.1029/2011MS000106.
39. Lionello, P., and F. Giorgi, 2007: Winter precipitation and cyclones in the Mediterranean region: Future climate scenarios in a regional simulation. Adv. Geosci., 12, 153-158.
40. Manganello, J. V., and Coauthors, 2012: Tropical cyclone climatology in a 10-km global atmospheric GCM: Toward weatherresolving climate modeling. J. Climate, 25, 3867-3893.
41. Marengo, J. A., M. Rusticucci, O. Penalba, and M. Renom, 2010: An intercomparison of observed and simulated extreme rainfall and temperature events during the last half of the twentieth century: Part 2: Historical trends. Climatic Change, 98, 509-529.
42. May, W., 2004: Simulation of the variability and extremes of daily rainfall during the Indian summer monsoon for present and future times in a global time-slice experiment. Climate Dyn., 22, 183-204.
43. McClean, J. L., and Coauthors, 2011: A prototype two-decade fully-coupled fine-resolution CCSM simulation. Ocean Modell., 39, 10-30.
44. Meehl, G. A., J. M. Arblaster, and C. Tebaldi, 2005: Understanding future patterns of increased precipitation intensity in climate model simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L18719, doi:10.1029/2005GL023680.
45. Meehl, G. A., C. Covey, T. Delworth, M. Latif, B. McAvaney, J. F. B. Mitchell, R. J. Stouffer, and K. E. Taylor, 2007: The WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset: A new era in climate change research. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88, 1383-1394.
46. Mesinger, F., and Coauthors, 2006: North American Regional Reanalysis. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87, 343-360.
47. Milrad, S. M., E. H. Atallah, and J. R. Gyakum, 2010: Synoptic typing of extreme cool-season precipitation events at St. John's, Newfoundland, 1979-2005. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 562-586.
48. Min, S., X. Zhang, F. W. Zwiers, and G. C. Hegerl, 2011: Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes. Nature, 470, 378-381.
49. Novak, D. R., L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and J. S. Waldstreicher, 2004: An observational study of cold season-banded precipitation in northeast U.S. cyclones. Wea. Forecasting, 19, 993-1010.
50. Perkins, S. E., A. J. Pitman, N. J. Holbrook, and J. McAneney, 2007: Evaluation of the AR4 climate models' simulated daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation over Australia using probability density functions. J. Climate, 20, 4356-4376.
51. Rappaport, E. N., 2000: Loss of life in the United States associated with recent Atlantic tropical cyclones. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81, 2065-2073.
52. Riemann Campe, K., K. Fraedrich, and F. Lunkeit, 2009: Global climatology of convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition (CIN) in ERA-40 reanalysis. Atmos. Res., 93, 534-545.
53. Ruiz-Barradas, A., and S. Nigam, 2006: IPCC's twentieth-century climate simulations: Varied representations of NorthAmerican hydroclimate variability. J. Climate, 19, 4041-4058.
54. Semmler, T., and D. Jacob, 2004: Modeling extreme precipitation events-A climate change simulation for Europe. Global Planet. Change, 44, 119-127.
55. Sun, Y., S. Solomon, A. Dai, and R. W. Portmann, 2007: How often will it rain? J. Climate, 20, 4801-4818.
56. Tomassini, L., and D. Jacob, 2009: Spatial analysis of trends in extreme precipitation events in high-resolution climate model results and observations for Germany. J. Geophys. Res., 114, D12113, doi:10.1029/2008JD010652.
57. Trenberth, K. E., A. Dai, R. M. Rasmussen, and D. B. Parsons, 2003: The changing character of precipitation. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 1205-1217.
58. USGS, 2006: Fact sheet: Flood hazards-A national threat. United States Geological Survey, 2 pp. [Available online at http:// pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2006/3026/.]
59. Wehner, M. F., 2013: Very extreme seasonal precipitation in the NARCCAP ensemble: Model performance and projections. Climate Dyn., 40, 59-80, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1393-1.
60. Wehner, M. F., R. L. Smith, G. Bala, and P. Duffy, 2010: The effect of horizontal resolution on simulation of very extreme United States precipitation events in a global atmosphere model. Climate Dyn., 34, 241-247.
61. Wilby, R. L., and T. M. L. Wigley, 2002: Future changes in the distribution of daily precipitation totals across North America. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 1135, doi:10.1029/2001GL013048.
62. Wilcox, E. M., and L. J. Donner, 2007: The frequency of extreme rain events in satellite rain-rate estimates and an atmospheric general circulation model. J. Climate, 20, 53-69.
63. Wilks, D. S., 2006: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. 2nd ed. Elsevier, 627 pp.
64. Yin, J. H., 2005: A consistent poleward shift of the storm tracks in simulations of 21st century climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L18701, doi:10.1029/2005GL023684.
65. Zwiers, F. W., and V. V. Kharin, 1998: Changes in the extremes of the climate simulated by CCC GCM2 under CO2 doubling. J. Climate, 11, 2200-2222.