Weakened interannual variability in the tropical pacific ocean since 2000

Journal of Climate

Volumn 26, Issue 8, 2013, Pages 2601-2613

  Hu, Zeng Zhen ^a   Kumar, Arun ^a   Ren, Hong Li ^b,c   Wang, Hui ^a,d   L'heureux, Michelle ^a   Jin, Fei Fei ^b  

^a NOAA EARTH SYSTEM RESEARCH LABORATORY   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII   (United States)

^c China Meteorological Administration   (China)

^d Wyle Science   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EQUATORIAL PACIFIC; INTER-DECADAL SHIFTS; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES; TROPICAL ATMOSPHERES; TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN; WALKER CIRCULATION; ZEBIAK-CANE MODEL;

ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE; ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; CLIMATE CHANGE; STREAM FLOW;

TROPICS;

AIR-SEA INTERACTION; ANNUAL VARIATION; COMPARATIVE STUDY; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; TEMPERATURE ANOMALY; THERMOCLINE; WALKER CIRCULATION; WIND STRESS;

PACIFIC OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN (EQUATORIAL); PACIFIC OCEAN (TROPICAL);

EID: 84877835915     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00265.1     Document Type: Article

References (51)

1. An, S.-I., and B. Wang, 2000: Interdecadal change of the structure of the ENSO mode and its impact on the ENSO frequency. J. Climate, 13, 2044-2055.
2. Barnston, A. G., M. K. Tippett, M. L. L'Heureux, S. Li, and D. G. DeWitt, 2012: Skill of real-time seasonal ENSO model predictions during 2002-11: Is our capability increasing? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 631-651.
3. Behringer, D. W., and Y. Xue, 2004: Evaluation of the Global Ocean Data Assimilation System at NCEP: The Pacific Ocean. Preprints, Eighth Symp. on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface, Seattle, WA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 2.3. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/70720.pdf.]
4. Bejarano, L., and F.-F. Jin, 2008: Coexistence of equatorial coupled modes of ENSO. J. Climate, 21, 3051-3067.
5. Choi, J., S.-I. An, B. Dewitte, and W.-W. Hsieh, 2009: Interactive feedback between the tropical Pacific decadal oscillation and ENSO in a coupled general circulation model. J. Climate, 22, 6597-6611.
6. Collins, M., 2000: The El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the second Hadley Centre coupled model and its response to greenhouse warming. J. Climate, 13, 1299-1312.
7. Collins, M., and Coauthors, 2010: The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Niño. Nat. Geosci., 3, 391-397, doi:10.1038/ngeo868.
8. Fedorov, A. V., and S. G. Philander, 2000: Is El Niño changing? Science, 288, 1997-2002.
9. Fedorov, A. V., and S. G. Philander, 2001: A stability analysis of tropical ocean-atmosphere interactions: Bridging measurements and theory for E1 Niño. J. Climate, 14, 3086-3101.
10. Horii, T., I. Ueki, and K. Hanawa, 2012: Breakdown of ENSO predictors in the 2000s:Decadal changes of recharge/discharge-SST phase relation and atmospheric intraseasonal forcing. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L10707, doi:10.1029/2012GL051740.
11. Hu, Z.-Z., M. Latif, E. Roeckner, and L. Bengtsson, 2000: IntensifiedAsian summermonsoon and its variability in a coupled model forced by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 2681-2684.
12. Hu, Z.-Z., E. K. Schneider, U. S. Bhatt, and B. P. Kirtman, 2004: Potential mechanism for response of El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability to change in land surface energy budget. J. Geophys. Res., 109, D21113, doi:10.1029/2004JD004771.
13. Hu, Z.-Z., A. Kumar, B. Jha, and B. Huang, 2012: An analysis of forced and internal variability in a warmer climate in CCSM3. J. Climate, 25, 2356-2373.
14. Janowiak, J. E., and P. Xie, 1999: CAMS-OPI: A global satellite-rain gauge merged product for real-time precipitation monitoring applications. J. Climate, 12, 3335-3342.
15. Jin, F.-F., 1997a: An equatorial ocean recharge paradigm for ENSO. Part I: Conceptual model. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 811-829.
16. Jin, F.-F., 1997b: An equatorial ocean recharge paradigm for ENSO. Part II: A stripped-down coupled model. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 830-847.
17. Jin, F.-F., and J.-D. Neelin, 1993: Modes of interannual tropical ocean-atmosphere interaction-A unified view. Part I: Numerical results. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 3477-3503.
18. Jin, F.-F., Z.-Z. Hu, M. Latif, L. Bengtsson, and E. Roeckner, 2001: Dynamics and cloud-radiation feedbacks in El Niño and greenhouse warming. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 1539-1542.
19. Kalnay, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437-471.
20. Kanamitsu, M., and Coauthors, 2002: NCEP-DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2). Bull. Amer. Meteor., 83, 1631-1643.
21. Kirtman, B. P., and P. S. Schopf, 1998: Decadal variability in ENSO predictability and prediction. J. Climate, 11, 2804-2822.
22. Kumar, A., and Z.-Z. Hu, 2012b: Uncertainty in the ocean-atmosphere feedbacks associated with ENSO in the reanalysis products. Climate Dyn., 39, 575-588, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1104-3.
23. Latif, M., and N. Keenlyside, 2008: El Niño/Southern Oscillation response to global warming. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 106, 20 578-20 583, doi:10.1073/pnas.0710860105.
24. Lee, T., and M. J. McPhaden, 2010: Increasing intensity of El Nino in the central equatorial Pacific. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L14603, doi:10.1029/2010GL044007.
25. Liebmann, B., and C. A. Smith, 1996: Description of a complete (interpolated) outgoing long wave radiation dataset. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 1275-1277.
26. McPhaden, M. J., 2012: A 21st century shift in the relationship between ENSO SST and warm water volume anomalies. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L09706, doi:10.1029/2012GL051826.
27. McPhaden, M. J., and X. Zhang, 2009: Asymmetry in zonal phase propagation of ENSO sea surface temperature anomalies. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L13703, doi:10.1029/2009GL038774.
28. McPhaden, M. J., T. Lee, and D. McClurg, 2011: El Niño and its relationship to changing background conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L15709, doi:10.1029/2011GL048275.
29. Meehl, G.A., P. R. Gent, J.M.Arblaster, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, E. C. Brady, and A. Craig, 2001: Factors that affect amplitude of El Niño in global coupled climate models. Climate Dyn., 17, 515-526.
30. Meehl, G.A., H. Teng, and G. Branstator, 2006: Future changes of El Nino in two global coupled climate models. Climate Dyn., 26, 549- 566, doi:10.1007/s00382-005-0098-0.
31. Meinen, C. S., and M. J. McPhaden, 2000: Observations of warm water volume changes in the equatorial Pacific and their relationship to El Nino and La Niña. J. Climate, 13, 3551-3559.
32. Meng, Q., M. Latif, W. Park, N. S. Keenlyside, V. A. Semenov, and T. Martin, 2012: Twentieth-century Walker circulation change: Data analysis and model experiments. Climate Dyn., 38, 1757-1773, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1047-8.
33. Neelin, J.D., and F.-F. Jin, 1993:Modes of interannual tropical ocean-atmosphere interaction-A unified view. Part II: Analytical results in the weak coupling limit. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 3504-3522.
34. Nitta, T., and S. Yamada, 1989: Recent warming of tropical sea surface temperature and its relationship to the Northern Hemisphere circulation. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 67, 375-383.
35. Onogi, K., and Coauthors, 2007: The JRA-25 Reanalysis. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 85, 369-432.
36. Ren, H.-L., and F.-F. Jin, 2011: Niño indices for two types of ENSO. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L04704, doi:10.1029/2010GL046031.
37. Saha, S., and Coauthors, 2010: The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91, 1015-1057.
38. Smith, T. M., R. W. Reynolds, T. C. Peterson, and J. Lawrimore, 2008: Improvements to NOAA's historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880-2006). J. Climate, 21, 2283-2296.
39. Stevenson, S., B. Fox-Kemper, M. Jochum, B. Rajagopalan, and S. G. Yeager, 2010: ENSO model validation using wavelet probability analysis. J. Climate, 23, 5540-5547.
40. Sun, F., and J.-Y. Yu, 2009: A 10-15-yr modulation cycle of ENSO intensity. J. Climate, 22, 1718-1735.
41. Thual, S., B. Dewitte, S.-I. An, and N. Ayoub, 2011: Sensitivity of ENSO to stratification in a recharge-discharge conceptual model. J. Climate, 24, 4332-4349.
42. Trenberth, K. E., and D. P. Stepaniak, 2001: Indices of El Niño evolution. J. Climate, 14, 1697-1701.
43. Vecchi, G. A., and A. T. Wittenberg, 2010: El Niño and our future climate: Where do we stand? Wiley Interdiscip. Rev.: Climate Change, 1, 260-270, doi:10.1002/wcc.33.
44. Vecchi, G. A., B. J. Soden, A. T. Wittenberg, I. M. Held, A. Leetmaa, and M. J. Harrison, 2006: Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing. Nature, 441, 73-76.
45. Wang, B., and S.-I. An, 2002: A mechanism for decadal changes of ENSO behavior: Roles of background wind changes. Climate Dyn., 18, 475-486.
46. Wang, W., M. Chen, and A. Kumar, 2010:An assessment of the CFS real-time seasonal forecasts. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 950-969.
47. Wittenberg, A. T., 2009: Are historical records sufficient to constrain ENSO simulations? Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L12702, doi:10.1029/2009GL038710.
48. Xiang, B., B. Wang, and T. Li, 2013: A new paradigm for the predominance of standing central Pacific warming after the late 1990s. Climate Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1427-8, in press.
49. Yeh, S. W., and B. P. Kirtman, 2004: Tropical Pacific decadal variability and ENSO amplitude modulation in a CGCM. J. Geophys. Res., 109, C11009, doi:10.1029/2004JC002442.
50. Zebiak, S. E., and M. A. Cane, 1987: A model El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 2262-2278.
51. Zhang, Y., J. M. Wallace, and D. S. Battisti, 1997: ENSO-like interdecadal variability: 1900-93. J. Climate, 10, 1004-1020.