메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 117, Issue , 2013, Pages 52-64

A Bayesian approach to treat expert-elicited probabilities in human reliability analysis model construction

Author keywords

Bayesian methods; Expert judgment; Human reliability analysis; Probabilistic safety assessment; Subjective probabilities

Indexed keywords

BAYESIAN NETWORKS; ERRORS; ESTIMATION; RELIABILITY ANALYSIS;

EID: 84877341915     PISSN: 09518320     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2013.03.015     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (71)

References (33)
  • 1
    • 34848855100 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Human error data collection as a precursor to the development of a human reliability assessment capability in air traffic management
    • DOI 10.1016/j.ress.2006.12.005, PII S0951832006002754
    • B Kirwan, WH Gibson, and B. Hickling Human error data collection as a precursor to the development of a human reliability assessment capability in air traffic management Reliability Engineering & System Safety 93 2 2008 217 233 (Pubitemid 47499008)
    • (2008) Reliability Engineering and System Safety , vol.93 , Issue.2 , pp. 217-233
    • Kirwan, B.1    Gibson, W.H.2    Hickling, B.3
  • 2
    • 0031259203 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Validation of human reliability assessment of techniques: Part 1 - Validation issues
    • DOI 10.1016/S0925-7535(97)00049-0, PII S0925753597000490
    • B. Kirwan Validation of human reliability assessment techniques: Part 1 - Validation issues Safety Science 27 1 1997 25 41 (Pubitemid 27455847)
    • (1997) Safety Science , vol.27 , Issue.1 , pp. 25-41
    • Kirwan, B.1
  • 3
    • 0031257605 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Validation of human reliability assessment techniques: Part 2 - Validation results
    • DOI 10.1016/S0925-7535(97)00050-7, PII S0925753597000507
    • B. Kirwan Validation of human reliability assessment techniques: Part 2 - Validation results Safety Science 27 1 1997 43 75 (Pubitemid 27455848)
    • (1997) Safety Science , vol.27 , Issue.1 , pp. 43-75
    • Kirwan, B.1
  • 6
    • 0348252364 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Human reliability data, human error and accident models - Illustration through Three Mile Island accident analysis
    • P. Le Bot Human reliability data, human error and accident models - illustration through Three Mile Island accident analysis Reliability Engineering & System Safety 83 2 2004 153 167
    • (2004) Reliability Engineering & System Safety , vol.83 , Issue.2 , pp. 153-167
    • Le Bot, P.1
  • 7
    • 49749112387 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Little stories to explain human reliability assessment: A practical approach of the MERMOS method
    • 26-31 August 2007, Monterey, California
    • Pesme H, Le Bot P, Meyer P. Little stories to explain human reliability assessment: a practical approach of the MERMOS method. In: IEEE eighth conference on human factors and power plants; 26-31 August 2007, Monterey, California.
    • IEEE Eighth Conference on Human Factors and Power Plants
    • Pesme, H.1    Le Bot, P.2    Meyer, P.3
  • 8
    • 40949122154 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The commission errors search and assessment (CESA) method
    • May 2007, ISSN 1019-0643, 5232 Villigen PSI, Switzerland
    • Reer B, Dang VN. The commission errors search and assessment (CESA) method. Paul Scherrer Institut Report 07-03, May 2007, ISSN 1019-0643, 5232 Villigen PSI, Switzerland.
    • Paul Scherrer Institut Report 07-03
    • Reer, B.1    Dang, V.N.2
  • 9
    • 0347412039 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The CESA method and its application in a plant-specific pilot study on errors of commission
    • B Reer, VN Dang, and S. Hirschberg The CESA method and its application in a plant-specific pilot study on errors of commission Reliability Engineering & System Safety 83 2 2004 187 205
    • (2004) Reliability Engineering & System Safety , vol.83 , Issue.2 , pp. 187-205
    • Reer, B.1    Dang, V.N.2    Hirschberg, S.3
  • 11
    • 34848849029 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The MDTA-based method for assessing diagnosis failures and their risk impacts in nuclear power plants
    • DOI 10.1016/j.ress.2006.10.020, PII S0951832007000488
    • J Kim, W Jung, and YS. Son The MDTA-based method for assessing diagnosis failures and their risk impacts in nuclear power plants Reliability Engineering & System Safety 93 2 2007 337 349 (Pubitemid 47499020)
    • (2008) Reliability Engineering and System Safety , vol.93 , Issue.2 , pp. 337-349
    • Kim, J.1    Jung, W.2    Son, Y.S.3
  • 14
  • 16
    • 84877326512 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • (2011), 3 (forthcoming), US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, also issued as OECD Halden Reactor Project Work Report, HWR-844 (2008), HWR-915 (2010), HWR-951 (2011)
    • International HRA empirical study, NUREG/IA-2016, Vol. 1 (2009), 2, (2011), 3 (forthcoming), US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, also issued as OECD Halden Reactor Project Work Report, HWR-844 (2008), HWR-915 (2010), HWR-951 (2011).
    • (2009) International HRA Empirical Study, NUREG/IA-2016 , vol.1 , pp. 2
  • 17
    • 0348042916 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Model-based human reliability analysis: Prospects and requirements Reliability
    • 25
    • A Mosleh, and YH. Chang Model-based human reliability analysis: prospects and requirements Reliability Engineering & System Safety 83 2 2004 241 25
    • (2004) Engineering & System Safety , vol.83 , Issue.2 , pp. 241
    • Mosleh, A.1    Chang, Y.H.2
  • 18
    • 84873161439 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Deriving causal Bayesian networks from human reliability analysis data: A methodology and example model
    • KM Groth, and A. Mosleh Deriving causal Bayesian networks from human reliability analysis data: a methodology and example model Journal of Risk and Reliability 226 4 2012 361 379
    • (2012) Journal of Risk and Reliability , vol.226 , Issue.4 , pp. 361-379
    • Groth, K.M.1    Mosleh, A.2
  • 19
    • 84856747096 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Developing and evaluating the Bayesian belief network as a human reliability model using artificial data
    • 18-22 September 2011, Troyes, France
    • Stempfel Y, Dang VN., Developing and evaluating the Bayesian belief network as a human reliability model using artificial data. In: Proceedings of ESREL 2011, European safety and reliability conference; 18-22 September 2011, Troyes, France, p. 641-649.
    • Proceedings of ESREL 2011, European Safety and Reliability Conference , pp. 641-649
    • Stempfel, Y.1    Dang, V.N.2
  • 20
    • 77955917223 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Using expert models in human reliability analysis - A dependence assessment method based on fuzzy logic
    • L Podofillini, VN Dang, E Zio, P Baraldi, and M. Librizzi Using expert models in human reliability analysis - a dependence assessment method based on fuzzy logic Risk Analysis 8 2010 1277 1297
    • (2010) Risk Analysis , vol.8 , pp. 1277-1297
    • Podofillini, L.1    Dang, V.N.2    Zio, E.3    Baraldi, P.4    Librizzi, M.5
  • 21
    • 0022880867 scopus 로고
    • The assessment of probability distributions from expert opinions with an application to seismic fragility curves
    • A Mosleh, and G. Apostolakis The assessment of probability distributions from expert opinions with an application to seismic fragility curves Risk Analysis 6 1986 447 461 (Pubitemid 17227601)
    • (1986) Risk Analysis , vol.6 , Issue.4 , pp. 447-461
    • Mosleh, A.1    Apostolakis, G.2
  • 22
    • 0027047209 scopus 로고
    • Bayesian modeling of expert-to-expert variability and dependence in estimating rare event frequencies
    • A Mosleh Bayesian modeling of expert-to-expert variability and dependence in estimating rare event frequencies Reliability Engineering and System Safety 38 1992 47 57 (Pubitemid 23583837)
    • (1992) Reliability Engineering and System Safety , vol.38 , Issue.1-2 , pp. 47-57
    • Mosleh Ali1
  • 23
    • 0032839653 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Combining probability distributions from experts in risk analysis
    • DOI 10.1023/A:1006917509560
    • RT Clemen, and RL. Winkler Combining probability distributions from experts in risk analysis Risk Analysis 19 1999 187 203 (Pubitemid 29374646)
    • (1999) Risk Analysis , vol.19 , Issue.2 , pp. 187-203
    • Clemen, R.T.1    Winkler, R.L.2
  • 24
    • 0034561507 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayesian aggregation of experts' judgment on failure intensity
    • T Rosqvist Bayesian aggregation of experts' judgment on failure intensity Reliability Engineering and System Safety 70 2000 283 284
    • (2000) Reliability Engineering and System Safety , vol.70 , pp. 283-284
    • Rosqvist, T.1
  • 25
    • 0346341084 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The combined use of data and expert estimates in population variability analysis
    • EL Droguett, F Groen, and A. Mosleh The combined use of data and expert estimates in population variability analysis Reliability Engineering & System Safety 83 2004 311 321
    • (2004) Reliability Engineering & System Safety , vol.83 , pp. 311-321
    • Droguett, E.L.1    Groen, F.2    Mosleh, A.3


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.