Time-series analysis of weather and mortality patterns in Nairobi's informal settlements

Global Health Action

Volumn 5, Issue SUPPL., 2012, Pages 23-32

  Egondi, Thaddaeus ^a,b   Kyobutungi, Catherine ^a   Kovats, Sari ^c   Muindi, Kanyiva ^a,b   Ettarh, Remare ^a   Rocklöv, Joacim ^b  

^a AFRICAN POPULATION AND HEALTH RESEARCH CENTER   (Kenya)

^b UMEÅ UNIVERSITY   (Sweden)

^c LONDON SCHOOL OF HYGIENE AND TROPICAL MEDICINE   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Climate; Mortality; Rainfall; Temperature; Time series; Urban

Indexed keywords

RAIN;

ADOLESCENT; ADULT; AGE; ARTICLE; CAUSE OF DEATH; CHILD; CITY; FEMALE; HEALTH SURVEY; HUMAN; INFANT; KENYA; MALE; MIDDLE AGED; MORTALITY; POISSON DISTRIBUTION; PRESCHOOL CHILD; SEASON; SEX DIFFERENCE; TEMPERATURE; WEATHER;

ADOLESCENT; ADULT; AGE FACTORS; CAUSE OF DEATH; CHILD; CHILD, PRESCHOOL; CITIES; FEMALE; HUMANS; INFANT; KENYA; MALE; MIDDLE AGED; MORTALITY; POISSON DISTRIBUTION; POPULATION SURVEILLANCE; RAIN; SEASONS; SEX FACTORS; TEMPERATURE; WEATHER; YOUNG ADULT;

EID: 84877152121     PISSN: None     EISSN: 16549880     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3402/gha.v5i0.19065     Document Type: Article

References (49)

1. World Meteorological Organization. WMO statement on the status of the global climate in 2011. Geneva: World Meteorological Organization; 2012.
2. Semenza JC, McCullough JE, Flanders WD, McGeehin MA, Lumpkin JR. Excess hospital admissions during the July 1995 heat wave in Chicago. Am J Prev Med 1999; 16: 269-77.
3. Basu R, Samet JM. Relation between elevated ambient temperature and mortality: a review of the epidemiologic evidence. Epidemiol Rev 2002; 24: 190-202.
4. Knowlton K, Rotkin-Ellman M, King G, Margolis HG, Smith D, Solomon G, et al. The 2006 California heat wave: impacts on hospitalizations and emergency department visits. Environ Health Perspect 2008; 117: 61-7.
5. Chung J-Y, Honda Y, Hong Y-C, Pan X-C, Guo Y-L, Kim H. Ambient temperature and mortality: an international study in four capital cities of East Asia. Sci Total Environ 2009; 408: 390-6.
6. Nitschke M, Tucker GR, Hansen AL, Williams S, Zhang Y, Bi P. Impact of two recent extreme heat episodes on morbidity and mortality in Adelaide, South Australia: a case-series analysis. Environ Health 2011; 10: 42.
7. Kinney PL, Pascal M, Vautard R, Laaidi K, Kinney PL, Pascal M, et al. La mortalité hivernale va-t-elle diminuer avec le changement climatique? [Winter mortality in a changing climate: will it go down?]. Bull Epidémiol Hebd 2012; 12-13: 145-51.
8. Basagana X, Sartini C, Barrera-Gomez J, Dadvand P, Cunillera J, Ostro B, et al. Heat waves and cause-specific mortality at all ages. Epidemiology 2011; 22: 765-72.
9. Frumpkin H. Urban sprawl and public health. Public Health Reports 2002; 117: 201-17.
10. UN-HABITAT. Meeting the urban challenges. UN-HABITAT; 2008. Available from: http://www.pophealthmetrics.com/content/ 6/1/1 [cited 26 May 2012].
11. WHO (1995). TheWorld Health Report 1995: bridging the gaps. Geneva: World Health Organization.
12. McMichael AJ. The urban environment and health in a world of increasing globalization: issues for developing countries. Bull World Health Organ 2000; 78: 1117-26.
13. Zulu EM, Beguy D, Ezeh AC, Bocquier P, Madise NJ, Cleland J, et al. Overview of migration, poverty and health dynamics in Nairobi City's slum settlements. J Urban Health 2011; 88(Suppl 2): 185-99.
14. Kyobutungi C, Ziraba AK, Ezeh A, Ye Y. The burden of disease profile of residents of Nairobi's slums: results from a demographic surveillance system. Popul Health Metr 2008; 6: 1.
15. 'World Weather Information Service - Nairobi'. World Meteorological Organization (UN). Available from: http:// www.worldweather.org/071/c00251.htm#climate [cited 21 May 2012].
16. Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. 2012. 'Climatological Normals of Nairobi' Hong Kong Observatory. Available from: http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/climat/world/eng/africa/ken-madg/nairobi-e.htm [cited 21 May 2012].
17. Kinsella K, Phillips DR. Global aging: the challenge of success. New York: United Nations; 2005.
18. Ferreira M, Kowal P. A minimum data set on ageing and older persons in Sub-Saharan Africa: process and outcome. African Popul Studies 2006; 21: 19-36.
19. WHO. International Classification of Diseases (ICD). 2010. World Health Organization. Available from: http://www.who.int/classifications/help/icdfaq/en/index.html [cited 3 June 2012].
20. Oti SO, Kyobutungi C. Verbal autopsy interpretation: a comparative analysis of the InterVA model versus physician review in determining causes of death in the Nairobi DSS. Popul Health Metr 2010; 8: 21.
21. Peng RD, Dominici F, Louis TA. Model choice in time series studies of air pollution and mortality. J R Stat Soc 2006; 169: 179-203.
22. Analitis A, Katsouyanni K, Biggeri A, Baccini M, Forsberg B, Bisanti L, et al. Effects of cold weather on mortality: results from 15 European cities within the PHEWE project. Am J Epidemiol 2008; 168: 1397-408.
23. Kysely J, Pokorna L, Kyncl J, Kriz B. Excess cardiovascular mortality associated with cold spells in the Czech Republic. BMC Public Health 2009; 9: 19.
24. Hashizume M, Wagatsuma Y, Hayashi T, Saha SK, Streatfield K, Yunus M. The effect of temperature on mortality in rural Bangladesh - a population-based time-series study. Int J Epidemiol 2009; 38: 1689-97.
25. Burkart K, Khan MH, Krämer A, Breitner S, Schneider A, Endlicher WR. Seasonal variations of all-cause and causespecific mortality by age, gender, and socioeconomic condition in urban and rural areas of Bangladesh. Int J Equity Health 2011; 10: 32. Available from: http://www.equityhealthj.com/content/10/1/32 [cited 26 June 2012].
26. Kynast-Wolf G, Preuss M, Sie A, Kouyate B, Becher H. Seasonal patterns of cardiovascular disease mortality of adults in Burkina Faso, West Africa. Trop Med Int Health 2010; 15: 1082-9.
27. The Eurowinter Group. Cold exposure and winter mortality from ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, respiratory disease, and all causes in warm and cold regions of Europe. The Eurowinter Group. Lancet 1997; 349: 1341-6.
28. Donaldson GC, Keatinge WR. Cold related mortality in England and Wales; influence of social class in working and retired age groups. J Epidemiol Community Health 2003; 57: 790-1.
29. Diaz J, Garcia R, Lopez C, Linares C, Tobias A, Prieto L. Mortality impact of extreme winter temperatures. Int J Biometeorol 2005; 49: 179-83.
30. McMichael AJ, Wilkinson P, Kovats RS, Pattenden S, Hajat S, Armstrong B, et al. International study of temperature, heat and urban mortality: the 'ISOTHURM' project. Int J Epidemiol 2008; 37: 1121-31.
31. Braga AL, Zanobetti A, Schwartz J. The time course of weatherrelated deaths. Epidemiology 2001; 12: 662-7.
32. Kunst AE, Looman CW, Mackenbach JP. Outdoor air temperature and mortality in The Netherlands: a time-series analysis. Am J Epidemiol 1993; 137: 331-41.
33. Langford IH, Bentham G. The potential effects of climate change on winter mortality in England and Wales. Int J Biometeorol 1995; 38: 141-7.
34. Martens WJ. Climate change, thermal stress and mortality changes. Soc Sci Med 1998; 46: 331-44.
35. Makinen TM, Juvonen R, Jokelainen J, Harju TH, Peitso A, Bloigu A, et al. Cold temperature and low humidity are associated with increased occurrence of respiratory tract infections. Respir Med 2009; 103: 456-62.
36. Drayna P, McLellan SL, Simpson P, Li S-H, Gorelick MH. Association between rainfall and pediatric emergency department visits for acute gastrointestinal illness. Environ Health Perspect 2010; 118: 1439-43.
37. Conlon KC, Rajkovich NB, White-Newsome JL, Larsen L, O'Neill MS. Preventing cold-related morbidity and mortality in a changing climate. Maturitas 2011; 69: 197-202.
38. Curriero FC, Heiner KS, Samet JM, Zeger SL, Strug L, Patz JA. Temperature and mortality in 11 cities of the eastern United States. Am J Epidemiol 2002; 155: 80-7.
39. Monacelli F, Aramini I, Odetti P. For debate: the August sun and the December snow. J Am Med Dir Assoc 2010; 11: 449-52.
40. Wilkinson P, Pattenden S, Armstrong B, Fletcher A, Kovats RS, Mangtani P, et al. Vulnerability to winter mortality in elderly people in Britain: population based study. BMJ (Clinical research ed.) 2004; 329: 647.
41. Rudge J, Gilchrist R. Excess winter morbidity among older people at risk of cold homes: a population-based study in a London borough. J Pub Health 2005; 27: 353-8.
42. Macey SM, Schneider DF. Deaths from excessive heat and excessive cold among the elderly. Gerontologist 1993; 33: 497-500.
43. Wilkinson P, Landon M, Armstrong B, Stevenson S, Pattenden S, McKee M, et al. Cold comfort: the social and environmental determinants of excess winter deaths in England, 1986-1996. York: Joseph Rowntree Foundation; 2001.
44. Hajat S, Kovats RS, Lachowycz K. Heat-related and coldrelated deaths in England and Wales: who is at risk? Occup Environ Med 2007; 64: 93-100.
45. Morabito M, Crisci A, Vallorani R, Modesti PA, Gensini GF, Orlandini S. Innovative approaches helpful to enhance knowledge on weather-related stroke events over a wide geographical area and a large population. Stroke 2011; 42: 593-600.
46. Quigley MA. Commentary: verbal autopsies - from smallscale studies to mortality surveillance systems. Int J Epidemiol Commun Health 2005; 34: 1087-8.
47. Kalkstein LS, Davis RE. Weather and human mortality: an evaluation of demographic and interregional responses in the United States. Ann Assoc Am Geogr 1989; 79: 44-64.
48. Stafoggia M, Forastiere F, Agostini D, Biggeri A, Bisanti L, Cadum E, et al. Vulnerability to heat-related mortality: a multicity, population-based, case-crossover analysis. Epidemiol 2006; 17: 315-23.
49. Kaiser R, Le Tertre A, Schwartz J, Gotway CA, Daley WR, Rubin CH. The effect of the 1995 heat wave in Chicago on allcause and cause-specific mortality. Am J Public Health 2007; 97: S58-62.