Historical evaluation and future prediction of eastern North American and Western Atlantic extratropical cyclones in the CMIP5 models during the cool season

Journal of Climate

Volumn 26, Issue 18, 2013, Pages 6882-6903

  Colle, Brian A ^a   Zhang, Zhenhai ^a   Lombardo, Kelly A ^a   Chang, Edmund ^a   Liu, Ping ^a   Zhang, Minghua ^a  

^a STONY BROOK UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AUTOMATED TRACKING; COUPLED MODEL INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT; EASTERN NORTH AMERICA; EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONES; FUTURE PREDICTIONS; HISTORICAL PERIODS; MAXIMUM INTENSITIES; SPATIAL RESOLUTION;

CLIMATE MODELS; SEA LEVEL;

STORMS;

ALGORITHM; CLIMATE MODELING; CLIMATE PREDICTION; CYCLOGENESIS; CYCLONE; EXTRATROPICAL ENVIRONMENT; STORM TRACK;

ATLANTIC OCEAN; ATLANTIC OCEAN (NORTH); UNITED STATES;

EID: 84876921125     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00498.1     Document Type: Article

References (58)

1. Anderson, D., K. I. Hodges, and B. J. Hoskins, 2003: Sensitivity of feature-based analysis methods of storm tracks to the form of background field removal. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 565-573.
2. Bengtsson, L., K. I. Hodges, and E. Roeckner, 2006: Storm tracks and climate change. J. Climate, 19, 3518-3543.
3. Carnell, R. E., and C. A. Senior, 1998: Changes in mid-latitude variability due to increasing greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols. Climate Dyn., 14, 369-383.
4. Catto, J. L., L. C. Shaffrey, and K. I. Hodges, 2011: Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones in a warming climate in the HiGEM high-resolution climate model. J. Climate, 24, 5336-5352.
5. Chang, K. M., Y. Guo, Z. Xia, and M. Zheng, 2013: Storm-track activity in IPCC AR4/CMIP5 model simulations. J. Climate, 26, 246-260.
6. Colle, B. A., 2003: Numerical simulations of the extratropical transition of Floyd (1999): Structural evolution and responsible mechanisms for the heavy rainfall over theNortheast United States. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 2905-2926.
7. Colle, B. A., F. Buonaiuto, M. J. Bowman, R. E. Wilson, R. Flood, R. Hunter, A. Mintz, and D. Hill, 2008: New York City's vulnerability to coastal flooding. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 89, 829-841.
8. Colle, B. A., K. Rojowsky, and F. Buonaiuto, 2010: New York City storm surges: Climatology and analysis of the wind and cyclone evolution. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 49, 85-100.
9. Dee, D. P., and Coauthors, 2011: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553-597.
10. Donner, L. J., and Coauthors, 2011: The dynamical core, physical parameterizations, and basic simulation characteristics of the atmospheric component AM3 of the GFDL global coupled model CM3. J. Climate, 24, 3484-3519.
11. Dufresne, J.-L., and Coauthors, 2013: Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth system model: From CMIP3 to CMIP5. Climate Dyn., 40, 2123-2165.
12. Geng, Q., and M. Sugi, 2003: Possible change of extratropical cyclone activity due to enhanced greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols-Study with a high-resolution AGCM. J. Climate, 16, 2262-2274.
13. Gent, P. R., and Coauthors, 2011: The Community Climate System Model version 4. J. Climate, 24, 4973-4991.
14. Harvey, B. J., L. C. Shaffrey, T. J. Woollings, G. Zappa, and K. I. Hodges, 2012: How large are projected 21st century storm track changes?. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L18707, doi:10.1029/2012GL052873.
15. Hazeleger, W., and Coauthors, 2010: EC-Earth: A seamless Earth system prediction approach in action. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91, 1357-1363.
16. Held, I. M., and E. O'Brien, 1992: Quasigeostrophic turbulence in a three-layer model: Effects of vertical structure in the mean shear. J. Atmos. Sci., 49, 1861-1870.
17. Hirsch, M. E., A. T. DeGaetano, and S. J. Colucci, 2001: An East Coast winter storm climatology. J. Climate, 14, 882-899.
18. Hodges, K. I., 1994: A general method for tracking analysis and its application to meteorological data. Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 2573-2586.
19. Hodges, K. I, 1995: Feature tracking on the unit sphere. Mon. Wea. Rev., 123, 3458-3465.
20. Hodges, K. I, R. W. Lee, and L. Bengtsson, 2011: A comparison of extratropical cyclones in recent reanalyses ERA-Interim, NASA MERRA, NCEP CFSR, and JRA-25. J. Climate, 24, 4888-4906.
21. Hoskins, B. J., and P. J. Valdes, 1990: On the existence of stormtracks. J. Atmos. Sci., 47, 1854-1864.
22. Hoskins, B. J., and K. I. Hodges, 2002: New perspectives on the Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks. J. Atmos. Sci., 59, 1041-1061.
23. Jiang, J., and W. Perrie, 2007: The impacts of climate change on autumn North Atlantic midlatitude cyclones. J. Climate, 20, 1174-1187.
24. Jones, C. D., and Coauthors, 2011: The HadGEM2-ES implementation of CMIP5 centennial simulations. Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 543-570, doi:10.5194/gmd-4-543-2011.
25. Joyce, T. M., Y.-O. Kwon, and L. Yu, 2009: On the relationship between synoptic wintertime atmospheric variability and path shifts in the Gulf Stream and the Kuroshio Extension. J. Climate, 22, 3177-3192.
26. Jung, T., S. K. Gulev, I. Rudeva, and V. Soloviov, 2006: Sensitivity of extratropical cyclone characteristics to horizontal resolution in the ECMWF model. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 132, 1839-1857, doi:10.1256/qj.05.212.
27. Jungclaus, J. H., and Coauthors, 2006: Ocean circulation and tropical variability in the coupled model ECHAM5/MPIOM. J. Climate, 19, 3952-3972.
28. Knippertz, P., U. Ulbrich, and P. Speth, 2000: Changing cyclones and surface wind speeds over the North Atlantic and Europe in a transient GHG experiment. Climate Res., 15, 109-122.
29. Lambert, S. J., 1995: The effect of enhanced greenhouse warming on winter cyclone frequencies and strengths. J. Climate, 8, 1447-1452.
30. Lambert, S. J., and J. C. Fyfe, 2006: Changes in winter cyclone frequencies and strengths simulated in enhanced greenhouse warming experiments: Results from the models participating in the IPCC diagnostic exercise. Climate Dyn., 26, 713-728.
31. Leibensperger, E. M., L. J. Mickley, and D. J. Jacob, 2008: Sensitivity of US air quality to mid-latitude cyclone frequency and implications of 1980-2006 climate change. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 7075-7086.
32. Long, Z., W. Perrir, J. Gyakum, R. Laprisee, and D. Caya, 2009: Scenario changes in the climatology ofwintermidlatitude cyclone activity over eastern North America and the northwest Atlantic. J. Geophys. Res., 114, D12111, doi:10.1029/2008JD010869.
33. Lunkeit, F., K. Fraedrich, and S. E. Bauer, 1998: Storm tracks in a warmer climate: Sensitivity studies with a simplified global circulation model. Climate Dyn., 14, 813-826.
34. Meehl, G. A., C. Covey, T. Delworth, M. Latif, B. McAveny, J. F. B. Mitchell, R. J. Stouffer, and K. E. Taylor, 2007: The WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset: A new era in climate change research. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88, 1383-1394.
35. Michou, M., and Coauthors, 2011: A new version of the CNRM chemistry-climate model, CNRM-CCM: Description and improvements from the CCMVal-2 simulations. Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., 4, 1129-1183.
36. Mickley, L. J., D. J. Jacob, B. D. Field, and D. Rind, 2004: Effects of future climate change on regional air pollution episodes in the United States. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L24103, doi:10.1029/2004GL021216.
37. Mizuta, R., M. Matsueda, H. Endo, and S. Yukimoto, 2011: Future change in extratropical cyclones associated with change in the upper troposphere. J. Climate, 24, 6456-6470.
38. Novak, D., B. A. Colle, and S. Yuter, 2008: High resolution observations and model simulations of an intense mesoscale snowband. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 1433-1456.
39. Paciorek, C., J. Risbey, V. Ventura, and R. Rosen, 2002: Multiple indices of Northern Hemisphere cyclone activity, winters 1949-1999. J. Climate, 15, 1573-1590.
40. Pinto, J. G., U. Ulbrich, G. C. Leckebusch, T. Spangehl, M. Reyers, and S. Zacharias, 2007: Changes in storm track and cyclone activity in three SRES ensemble experiments with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM. Climate Dyn., 29, 195-210.
41. Saha, S., and Coauthors, 2010: The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91, 1015-1057.
42. Salari, V., and I. K. Sethi, 1990: Feature point correspondence in the presence of occlusion. IEEE Trans. Pattern Anal. Mach. Intell., 12, 87-91.
43. Sheffield, J., and Coauthors, 2013: North American climate in CMIP5 experiments. Part I: Evaluation of historical simulations of continental and regional climatology. J. Climate, in press.
44. Simmonds, I., and E.-P. Lim, 2009: Biases in the calculation of Southern Hemisphere mean baroclinic eddy growth rate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L01707, doi:10.1029/2008GL036320.
45. Taylor, K. E., R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl, 2012: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 485-498.
46. Teng, H., W. M. Washington, and G. A. Meehl, 2008: Interannual variations and future change of wintertime extratropical cyclone activity over North America in CCSM3. Climate Dyn., 30, 673-686, doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0314-1.
47. Ulbrich, U., J. G. Pinto, H. Kupfer, G. C. Leckebusch, T. Spangehl, and M. Reyers, 2008: Changing Northern Hemisphere storm tracks in an ensemble of IPCC climate change simulations. J. Climate, 21, 1669-1679.
48. Volodin, E. M., N. A. Dianskii, and A. V. Gusev, 2010: Simulating present day climate with the INMCM4.0 coupled model of the atmospheric and oceanic general circulations. Atmos. Oceanic Phys., 46, 414-431.
49. Watanabe, S., and Coauthors, 2011: MIROC-ESM: Model description and basic results of CMIP5-20c3m experiments. Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 845-872.
50. Woollings, T., B. Hoskins, M. Blackburn, D. Hassell, and K. Hodges, 2010: Storm track sensitivity to sea surface temperatures resolution in a regional atmosphere model. Climate Dyn., 35, 343-353.
51. Woollings, T., J. M. Gregory, J. G. Pinto, M. Reyers, and D. J. Brayshaw, 2012: Response of the North Atlantic storm track to climate change shaped by ocean-atmosphere coupling. Nat. Geosci., 5, 313-317.
52. Wu, T., and Coauthors, 2010: The Beijing Climate Center for atmospheric general circulation model: Description and its performance for the present-day climate. Climate Dyn., 34, 123-147, doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0487-2.
53. Yin, J., 2005: A consistent poleward shift of the storm tracks in simulations of the 21st century climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L18701, doi:10.1029/2005GL023684.
54. Yukimoto, S., and Coauthors, 2012: A new global climate model of the Meteorological Research Institute: MRI-CGCM3-Model description and basic performance. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 90A, 23-64.
55. Zanchettin, D., A. Rubino, D. Matei, O. Bothe, and J. H. Jungclaus, 2012: Multidecadal-to-centennial SST variability in the MPIESM simulation ensemble for the last millennium. Climate Dyn., 39, 419-444, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1361-9.
56. Zhang, K., B. C. Douglas, and S. P. Leatherman, 2000: Twentiethcentury storm activity along the U.S. East Coast. J. Climate, 13, 1748-1761.
57. Zhang, Y., and W.-C. Wang, 1997: Model-simulated northern winter cyclone and anticyclone activity under a greenhouse warming scenario. J. Climate, 10, 1616-1634.
58. Zhang, Z. S., and Coauthors, 2012: Pre-industrial and mid-Pliocene simulations with NorESM-L. Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 523-533, doi:10.5194/gmd-5-523-2012.