A systematic review of risk prediction in adult cardiac surgery: Considerations for future model development

European Journal of Cardio-thoracic Surgery

Volumn 43, Issue 5, 2013, Pages

  Head, Stuart J ^a   Osnabrugge, Ruben L J ^a   Howell, Neil J ^b,c   Freemantle, Nick ^d   Bridgewater, Ben ^e   Pagano, Domenico ^b   Pieter Kappetein, A ^a  

^a ERASMUS MEDICAL CENTER   (Netherlands)

^b UNIVERSITY HOSPITALS BIRMINGHAM NHS FOUNDATION TRUST   (United Kingdom)

^c UNIVERSITY OF BIRMINGHAM   (United Kingdom)

^d UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

^e UNIVERSITY OF MANCHESTER   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Aortic valve; Cardiac surgery; Coronary artery bypass grafting; EACTS; Mitral valve; Risk model; Risk prediction; Systematic review

Indexed keywords

BLOOD ANALYSIS; CARDIAC PATIENT; CEREBROVASCULAR ACCIDENT; GENE MUTATION; HEALTH STATUS; HEART SURGERY; HUMAN; KIDNEY FAILURE; LENGTH OF STAY; MORTALITY; NOTE; PRIORITY JOURNAL; SYSTEMATIC REVIEW; URINALYSIS;

CARDIAC SURGICAL PROCEDURES; CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES; DATABASES, FACTUAL; FEMALE; HUMANS; LENGTH OF STAY; MALE; MODELS, THEORETICAL; MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS; RISK FACTORS; TREATMENT OUTCOME;

EID: 84876843414     PISSN: 10107940     EISSN: 1873734X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1093/ejcts/ezt044     Document Type: Note

References (25)

1. Nashef SA, Roques F, Michel P, Gauducheau E, Lemeshow S, Salamon R. European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation (EuroSCORE). Eur J Cardiothorac Surg 1999;16:9-13.
2. Shahian DM, O'Brien SM, Filardo G, Ferraris VA, Haan CK, Rich JB et al. Society of Thoracic Surgeons Quality Measurement Task Force. The Society of Thoracic Surgeons 2008 cardiac surgery risk models: part 1- coronary artery bypass grafting surgery. Ann Thorac Surg 2009;88:S2-22.
3. Roques F, Michel P, Goldstone AR, Nashef SA. The logistic EuroSCORE. Eur Heart J 2003;24:881-2.
4. O'Brien SM, Shahian DM, Filardo G, Ferraris VA, Haan CK, Rich JB et al. Society of Thoracic Surgeons Quality Measurement Task Force. The Society of Thoracic Surgeons 2008 cardiac surgery risk models: part 2 -isolated valve surgery. Ann Thorac Surg 2009;88:S23-42.
5. Nashef SA, Roques F, Sharples LD, Nilsson J, Smith C, Goldstone AR et al. EuroSCORE II. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg 2012;41:734-44; discussion 744-35.
6. Di Dedda U, Pelissero G, Agnelli B, De Vincentiis C, Castelvecchio S, Ranucci M. Accuracy, calibration and clinical performance of the new EuroSCORE II risk stratification system. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg 2013;43: 27-32.
7. Chalmers J, Pullan M, Fabri B, McShane J, Shaw M, Mediratta N et al. Validation of EuroSCORE II in a modern cohort of patients undergoing cardiac surgery. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg 2013;43: 688-94.
8. Grant SW, Hickey GL, Dimarakis I, Trivedi U, Bryan A, Treasure T et al. How does EuroSCORE II perform in UK cardiac surgery; an analysis of 23 740 patients from the Society for Cardiothoracic Surgery in Great Britain and Ireland National Database. Heart 2012;98:1568-72.
9. Florath I, Albert A, Boening A, Ennker IC, Ennker J. Aortic valve replacement in octogenarians: identification of high-risk patients. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg 2010;37:1304-10.
10. Dewey TM, Brown D, Ryan WH, Herbert MA, Prince SL, Mack MJ. Reliability of risk algorithms in predicting early and late operative outcomes in high-risk patients undergoing aortic valve replacement. J Thorac Cardiovasc Surg 2008;135:180-7.
11. Qadir I, Salick MM, Perveen S, Sharif H. Mortality from isolated coronary bypass surgery: a comparison of the Society of Thoracic Surgeons and the EuroSCORE risk prediction algorithms. Interact CardioVasc Thorac Surg 2012;14:258-62.
12. Wendt D, Osswald BR, Kayser K, Thielmann M, Tossios P, Massoudy P et al. Society of Thoracic Surgeons score is superior to the EuroSCORE determining mortality in high risk patients undergoing isolated aortic valve replacement. Ann Thorac Surg 2009;88:468-74; discussion 474-5.
13. Nilsson J, Algotsson L, Hoglund P, Luhrs C, Brandt J. Early mortality in coronary bypass surgery: the EuroSCORE versus The Society of Thoracic Surgeons risk algorithm. Ann Thorac Surg 2004;77:1235-9; discussion 1239-40.
14. Farrokhyar F, Wang X, Kent R, Lamy A. Early mortality from off-pump and on-pump coronary bypass surgery in Canada: a comparison of the STS and the EuroSCORE risk prediction algorithms. Can J Cardiol 2007; 23:879-83.
15. Kappetein AP, Head SJ. Predicting prognosis in cardiac surgery: a prophecy? Eur J Cardiothorac Surg 2012;41:732-3.
16. Pagano D, Freemantle N, Bridgewater B, Howell N, Ray D, Jackson M et al. Social deprivation and prognostic benefits of cardiac surgery: observational study of 44 902 patients from five hospitals over 10 years. BMJ 2009;338:b902.
17. Szekely A, Nussmeier NA, Miao Y, Huang K, Levin J, Feierfeil H et al. A multinational study of the influence of health-related quality of life on in-hospital outcome after coronary artery bypass graft surgery. Am Heart J 2011;161:1179-85. e1172.
18. Kappetein AP, Head SJ, Généreux P, Piazza N, Van Mieghem NM, Blackstone EH et al. Updated standardized endpoint definitions for transcatheter aortic valve replacement: the Valve Academic Research Consortium-2 consensus document. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg 2012;42: S45-60.
19. van Mieghem NM, Head SJ, van der Boon RM, Piazza N, de Jaegere PP, Carrel T et al. The SURTAVI model: proposal for a pragmatic risk stratification for patients with severe aortic stenosis. EuroIntervention 2012;8: 258-66.
20. Rosenhek R, Iung B, Tornos P, Antunes MJ, Prendergast BD, Otto CM et al. ESC Working Group on Valvular Heart Disease Position Paper: assessing the risk of interventions in patients with valvular heart disease. Eur Heart J 2012;33:822-8.
21. Reilly MP, Li M, He J, Ferguson JF, Stylianou IM, Mehta NN et al. Identification of ADAMTS7 as a novel locus for coronary atherosclerosis and association of ABO with myocardial infarction in the presence of coronary atherosclerosis: two genome-wide association studies. Lancet 2011;377:383-92.
22. Nashef SA, Sharples LD, Roques F, Lockowandt U. EuroSCORE II and the art and science of risk modelling. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg 2013;43: 695-6.
23. Hickey GL, Grant SW, Murphy GJ, Bhabra M, Pagano D, McAllister K et al. Dynamic trends in cardiac surgery: why the logistic EuroSCORE is no longer suitable for contemporary cardiac surgery and implications for future risk models. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg 2012; doi:10.1093/ejcts/ezs584.
24. Roques F, Nashef SA, Michel P, Gauducheau E, de Vincentiis C, Baudet E et al. Risk factors and outcome in European cardiac surgery: analysis of the EuroSCORE multinational database of 19030 patients. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg 1999;15:816-22; discussion 822-3.
25. Head SJ, Bogers AJ, Serruys PW, Takkenberg JJ, Kappetein AP. A crucial factor in shared decision making: the team approach. Lancet 2011;377: 1836.