Flood frequency hydrology: 3. A Bayesian analysis

Water Resources Research

Volumn 49, Issue 2, 2013, Pages 675-692

  Viglione, Alberto ^a   Merz, Ralf ^b   Salinas, José Luis ^a   Blöschl, Günter ^a  

^a VIENNA UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY   (Austria)

^b HELMHOLTZ CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH UFZ   (Germany)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

BAYESIAN ANALYSIS; CREDIBLE INTERVAL; ENGINEERING HYDROLOGY; FLOOD FREQUENCY; FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS; RETURN PERIODS; SPATIAL INFORMATIONS; TEMPORAL INFORMATION;

CATCHMENTS; ESTIMATION; FLOOD CONTROL; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

FLOODS;

BAYESIAN ANALYSIS; CATCHMENT; FLOOD FREQUENCY; HYDROLOGICAL MODELING; HYDROTECHNICAL ENGINEERING; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

AUSTRIA; KAMP RIVER; LOWER AUSTRIA;

EID: 84876576771     PISSN: 00431397     EISSN: 19447973     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1029/2011WR010782     Document Type: Article

References (95)

1. Benito, G., and V. Thorndycraft (2005), Palaeoflood hydrology and its role in applied hydrological sciences, J. Hydrol., 313(1-2), 3-15, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.02.002. (Pubitemid 41463480)
2. Blöschl, G., C. Reszler, and J. Komma (2008), A spatially distributed flash flood forecasting model, Environ. Model. Software, 23(4), 464-478. (Pubitemid 350117728)
3. Bobee, B., and P. F. Rasmussen (1995), Recent advances in flood frequency-analysis, Rev. Geophys., 33(S1), 111 1-1116, doi: 10.1029/95RG00287.
4. Brazdil, R., Z. W. Kundzewicz, and G. Benito (2006), Historical hydrology for studying flood risk in Europe, Hydrol. Sci. J., 51(5), 739-764, doi: 10.1623/hysj.51.5.739. (Pubitemid 44507666)
5. Castellarin, A., D. H. Burn, and A. Brath (2001), Assessing the effectiveness of hydrological similarity measures for flood frequency analysis, J. Hydrol., 241, 270-285. (Pubitemid 32119735)
6. Castellarin, A., R. M. Vogel, and N. Matalas (2005), Probabilistic behavior of a regional envelope curve, Water Resour. Res., 41, W06018, doi: 10.1029/2004WR003042. (Pubitemid 41004227)
7. Castellarin, A., D. H. Burn, and A. Brath (2008), Homogeneity testing: How homogeneous do heterogeneous cross-correlated regions seem?, J. Hydrol., 360, 67-76.
8. Chib, S., and E. Greenberg (1995), Understanding the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, Am. Stat., 49(4), 327-335. (Pubitemid 126008969)
9. Chorynski, A., I. Pinskwar, W. Kron, G. R. Brakenridge, and Z. W. Kundzewicz (2012), Catalogue of large floods in Europe in the 20th century, in Changes in Flood Risk in Europe, IAHS Spec. Publ, vol. 10, edited by Z. W. Kundzewicz, chap. 3, pp. 27-54, CRC Press, Boca Raton, Fla.
10. Cohn, T. A., W. Lane, and W. Baier (1997), An algorithm for computing moments-based flood quantile estimates when historical flood information is available, Water Resour. Res., 33(9), 2089-2096. (Pubitemid 27378357)
11. Coles, S., L. Pericchi, and S. Sisson (2003), A fully probabilistic approach to extreme rainfall modeling, J. Hydrol., 273(1-4), 35-50, doi: 10.1016/S0022-1694(02)00353-0. (Pubitemid 36260959)
12. Coles, S. G, and J. A. Tawn (1996), A Bayesian analysis of extreme rainfall data, J. R. Stat. Soc., Ser. CAppl. Stat., 45(4), 463-478.
13. Cunnane, C. (1988), Methods and merits of regional flood frequency analysis, J. Hydrol., 100(1-3), 269-290, doi: 10.1016/0022-1694(88)90188-6.
14. D'Agostino, R., and M. Stephens (1986), Goodness-of-Fit Techniques, Statistics: Textbooks and Monographs, vol. 68, Dep. of Stat., South. Methodist Univ., Dallas, Tex.
15. Dalrymple, T. (1960), Flood frequency analyses, Water Supply Paper, vol. 1543-A, U. S. Geol. Surv., Reston, Va.
16. Deutscher Verband fur Wasserwirtschaft und Kulturbau (DVWK) (1999), Statistische Analyse von Hochwasserabflussen, Tech. Rep. H. 251, Bonn, Germany.
17. Deutsche Vereinigung fur Wasserwirtschaft, Abwasser und Abfall (DWA) (2012), Ermittlung von Hochwasserwahrscheinlichkeiten, Tech. Rep. DWA-M. 552, Hennef, Germany.
18. Eagleson, P. S. (1972), Dynamics of flood frequency, Water Resour. Res., 8(4), 878-898.
19. El Adlouni, S., T. B. Ouarda, X. Zhang, R. Roy, and B. Bobee (2007), Generalized maximum likelihood estimators for the nonstationary generalized extreme value model, Water Resour. Res., 43, W03410, doi: 10.1029/2005WR004545. (Pubitemid 46682780)
20. England, J. F., J. D. Salas, and R. D. Jarrett (2003), Comparisons of two moments-based estimators that utilize historical and paleoflood data for the log Pearson type III distribution, Water Resour. Res., 39(9), 1243, doi: 10.1029/2002WR001791.
21. Fill, H. D., and J. R. Stedinger (1998), Using regional regression within index flood procedures and an empirical Bayesian estimator, J. Hydrol., 210(1-4), 128-145, doi: 10.1016/S0022-1694(98)00177-2. (Pubitemid 28504053)
22. Fiorentino, M., and V. Iacobellis (2001), New insights about the climatic and geologic control on the probability distribution of floods, Water Resour. Res., 37(3), 721-730, doi: 10.1029/2000WR900315. (Pubitemid 32526070)
23. Gaume, E., L. Gaal, A. Viglione, J. Szolgay, S. Kohnova, and G. Blöschl (2010), Bayesian MCMC approach to regional flood frequency analyses involving extraordinary flood events at ungauged sites, J. Hydrol., 394, 101-117, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.01.008.
24. Gelman, A., J. Carlin, H. Stern, and D. Rubin (2004), Bayesian Data Analysis, 2nd ed., Chapman and Hall, New York.
25. Genest, C, and J. V. Zidek (1986), Combining probability distributions: A critique and an annotated bibliography, Stat. Sci, 1(1), 114-135, doi:10.1214/ss.
26. Grimaldi, S., S.-C. Kao, A. Castellarin, S. M. Papalexiou, A. Viglione, F. Laio, H. Aksoy, and A. Gedikli (2011), Statistical hydrology, in Treatise on Water Science, vol. 2, edited by P. Wilderer, chap. 2.18, pp. 479-517, Elsevier, New York, doi: 10.1016/B978-0-444-53199-5.00046-4.
27. Gutknecht, D., C. Reszler, and G. Blöschl (2002), Das Katastrophenhoch-wasser vom 7. August 2002 am Kamp-Eine erste Einschatzung [The August 7, 2002-flood of the Kamp-A first assessment], Elektrotech Informationstech, 119(12), 411-413. (Pubitemid 36052494)
28. Gutknecht, D., G. Blöschl, C. Reszler, and H. Heindl (2006), Ein "Mehr-Standbeine"-Ansatz zur Ermittlung von Bemessungshochwassern kleiner Auftretenswahrscheinlichkeit [A "multi-pillar"-approach to the estimation of low probability design floods], Osterreichische Wasser Abfallwirtsch., 58(H 3/4), 44-50.
29. Hazen, A. (1930), Flood Flows: A Study of Frequencies and Magnitudes, 199 pp., John Wiley and Sons, New York.
30. Hosking, J., and J. Wallis (1988), The effect of intersite dependence on regional flood frequency analysis, Water Resour. Res., 24(4), 588-600, doi: 10.1029/WR024i004p00588.
31. Hosking, J., and J. Wallis (1997), Regional Frequency Analysis: An Approach Based on L-Moments, 224 pp., Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K.
32. Kirnbauer, R., S. Schnatter, and D. Gutknecht (1987), Bayesian estimation of design floods under regional and subjective prior information, in Probability and Bayesian Statistics, edited by R. Viertl, pp. 285-294, Plenum Press, New York.
33. Komma, J., C. Reszler, G. Blöschl, and T. Haiden (2007), Ensemble prediction of floods-catchment non-linearity and forecast probabilities, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 7(4), 431-444, doi: 10.5194/nhess-7-431-2007.
34. Kottegoda, N. T., and R. Rosso (1997), Statistics, Probability, and Reliability for Civil and Environmental Engineers, 735 pp., McGraw-Hill, New York.
35. Kuczera, G. (1982), Combining site-specific and regional information: An empirical Bayes Approach, Water Resour. Res., 18(2), 306-314, doi:10.1029/WR018i002p00306.
36. Kuczera, G. (1983), Effect of sampling uncertainty and spatial correlation on an empirical Bayes procedure for combining site and regional information, J. Hydrol., 65(4), 373-398, doi:10.1016/0022-1694(83)90088-4.
37. Kuczera, G. (1992), Uncorrelated measurement error in flood frequency inference, Water Resour. Res., 28(1), 183-188, doi: 10.1029/91WR02269.
38. Kuczera, G. (1996), Correlated rating curve error in flood frequency inference, Water Resour. Res., 32(7), 2119-2127.
39. Kuczera, G. (1999), Comprehensive at-site flood frequency analysis using Monte Carlo Bayesian inference, Water Resour. Res., 35(5), 1551-1557. (Pubitemid 29207988)
40. Kurothe, R., N. Goel, and B. Mathur (1997), Derived flood frequency distribution for negatively correlated rainfall intensity and duration, Water Resour. Res., 33(9), 2103-2107, doi: 10.1029/97WR00812. (Pubitemid 27378359)
41. Laio, F. (2004), Cramer-von Mises and Anderson-Darling goodness of fit tests for extreme value distributions with unknown parameters, Water Resour. Res., 40, W09308, doi: 10.1029/2004WR003204. (Pubitemid 39385273)
42. Laio, F., and S. Tamea (2007), Verification tools for probabilistic forecast of continuous hydrological variables, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci, 11(4), 1267-1277. (Pubitemid 46707033)
43. Laio, F., P. Allamano, and P. Claps (2010), Exploiting the information content of hydrological "outliers" for goodness-of-fit testing, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci, 14, 1909-1917, doi: 10.5194/hess-14-1909-2010.
44. Leese, M. N (1973), Use of censored data in the estimation of Gumbel distribution parameters for annual maximum flood series, Water Resour. Res., 9(6), 1534-1542, doi: 10.1029/WR009i006p01534.
45. Lima, C. H, and U. Lall (2010), Spatial scaling in a changing climate: A hierarchical Bayesian model for non-stationary multi-site annual maximum and monthly streamflow, J. Hydrol, 383(3-4), 307-318, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009. 12.045.
46. Madsen, H., and D. Rosbjerg (1997), Generalized least squares and empirical Bayes estimation in regional partial duration series index-flood modeling, Water Resour. Res., 33(4), 771-781.
47. Martins, E., and J. R. Stedinger (2000), Generalized maximum-likelihood generalized extreme-value quantile estimators for hydrologic data, Water Resour. Res., 36(3), 737-744, doi: 10.1029/1999WR900330. (Pubitemid 30149759)
48. Martins, E., and J. R. Stedinger (2001), Historical information in a generalized maximum likelihood framework with partial duration and annual maximum series, Water Resour. Res., 37(10), 2559-2567. (Pubitemid 32908205)
49. Merz, R., and G. Blöschl (2003), A process typology of regional floods, Water Resour. Res., 39(12), 1340, doi: 10.1029/2002WR001952.
50. Merz, R., and G. Blöschl (2005), Flood frequency regionalisation-Spatial proximity vs. catchment attributes, J. Hydrol., 302(1-4), 283-306. (Pubitemid 40020311)
51. Merz, R., and G. Blöschl (2008a), Flood frequency hydrology: 1. Temporal, spatial, and causal expansion of information, Water Resour. Res., 44, W08432, doi: 10.1029/2007WR006744.
52. Merz, R., and G. Blöschl (2008b), Flood frequency hydrology: 2. Combining data evidence, Water Resour. Res., 44, W08433, doi: 10.1029/2007WR006745.
53. Merz, R., G. Blöschl, and G. Humer (2008), National flood discharge mapping in Austria, Nat. Hazards, 46, 53-72, doi: 10.1007/s11069-007-9181-7.
54. Micevski, T., and G. Kuczera (2009), Combining site and regional flood information using a Bayesian Monte Carlo approach, Water Resour. Res., 45, W04405, doi: 10.1029/2008WR007173.
55. Montanari, A. (2011), Uncertainty of hydrological predictions, in Treatise on Water Science, vol. 2, edited by P. Wilderer, chap. 2.17, pp. 459-478, Elsevier, New York.
56. Montanari, A., C. A. Shoemaker, and N. van de Giesen (2009), Introduction to special section on uncertainty assessment in surface and subsurface hydrology: An overview of issues and challenges, Water Resour. Res., 45, W00B00, doi: 10.1029/2009WR008471.
57. Mudelsee, M., M. Börngen, G. Tetzlaff, and U. Grunewald (2004), Extreme floods in central Europe over the past 500 years: Role of cyclone pathway "Zugstrasse Vb, " J. Geophys. Res., 109, D23101, doi: 10.1029/2004JD005034. (Pubitemid 40328386)
58. Neppel, L., et al. (2010), Flood frequency analysis using historical data: Accounting for random and systematic errors, Hydrol. Sci. J., 55(2), 192-208, doi: 10.1080/02626660903546092.
59. Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) (1975), Flood studies report, technical report, London.
60. O'Connell, D. R., D. A. Ostenaa, D. R. Levish, and R. E. Klinger (2002), Bayesian flood frequency analysis with paleohydrologic bound data, Water Resour. Res., 38(5), 1058, doi: 10.1029/2000WR000028.
61. Ouarda, T. B., and S. El Adlouni (2011), Bayesian nonstationary frequency analysis of hydrological variables, J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc, 47(3), 496-505, doi: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00544.x.
62. Parent, E., and J. Bernier (2003a), Bayesian POT modeling for historical data, J. Hydrol, 274(1-4), 95-108, doi:10.1016/S0022-1394(02) 00396-7. (Pubitemid 36325940)
63. Parent, E., and J. Bernier (2003b), Encoding prior experts judgments to improve risk analysis of extreme hydrological events via POT modeling, J. Hydrol., 283(1-4), 1-18, doi:10.1016/S0022-1694(03)00080-5. (Pubitemid 37435794)
64. Payrastre, O., E. Gaume, and H. Andrieu (2011), Usefulness of historical information for flood frequency analyses: Developments based on a case study, Water Resour. Res., 47, W08511, doi:10.1029/2010WR009812.
65. Perreault, L., J. Bernier, B. Bobee, and E. Parent (2000a), Bayesian change-point analysis in hydrometeorological time series. Part 1. The normal model revisited, J. Hydrol., 235(3-4), 221-241, doi:10.1016/S0022-1694(00)00270- 5.
66. Perreault, L., J. Bernier, B. Bobee, and E. Parent (2000b), Bayesian change-point analysis in hydrometeorological time series. Part 2. Comparison of change-point models and forecasting, J. Hydrol, 235(3-4), 242-263, doi:10.1016/S0022-1694(00)00271-7.
67. Pilgrim, D. H., and I. Cordery (1993), Flood runoff, in Handbook of Hydrology, edited by D. R. Maidment, chap. 9, p. 42, McGraw-Hill, New York.
68. Reis, D. S. J., and J. R. Stedinger (2005), Bayesian MCMC flood frequency analysis with historical information, J. Hydrol., 313(1-2), 97-116. (Pubitemid 41472024)
69. Renard, B., M. Lang, and P. Bois (2006), Statistical analysis of extreme events in a non-stationary context via a Bayesian framework: Case study with peak-over-threshold data, Stochastic Environ. Res. Risk Ass., 21(2), 97-112, doi: 10.1007/s00477-006-0047-4. (Pubitemid 44768877)
70. Reszler, C, G. Blöschl, and J. Komma (2008), Identifying runoff routing parameters for operational flood forecasting in small to medium sized catchments, Hydrol. Sci. J., 53(1), 112-129. (Pubitemid 351337829)
71. Ribatet, M., E. Sauquet, J. Gresillon, and T. B. Ouarda (2007), Usefulness of the reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo model in regional flood frequency analysis, Water Resour. Res., 43, W08403, doi: 10.1029/2006WR005525. (Pubitemid 47509785)
72. Robert, C. P., and G. Casella (2004), Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, Springer, New York.
73. Robson, A. J., and D. W. Reed (1999), Statistical procedures for flood frequency estimation, in Flood Estimation Handbook, vol. 3, p. 338, Inst. of Hydrol. Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, U. K.
74. Rogger, M., B. Kohl, H. Pirkl, A. Viglione, J. Komma, R. Kirnbauer, R. Merz, and G. Blöschl (2012a), Runoff models and flood frequency statistics for design flood estimation in Austria-Do they tell a consistent story?, J. Hydrol, 456-457, 30-43, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.05.068.
75. Rogger, M., H. Pirkl, A. Viglione, J. Komma, B. Kohl, R. Kirnbauer, R. Merz, and G. Blöschl (2012b), Step changes in the flood frequency curve: Process controls, Water Resour. Res., 48, W05544, doi: 10.1029/2011WR011187.
76. Seidou, O., T. B. Ouarda, M. Barbet, P. Bruneau, and B. Bobee (2006), A parametric Bayesian combination of local and regional information in flood frequency analysis, Water Resour. Res., 42, W11408, doi: 10.1029/2005WR004397. (Pubitemid 46134879)
77. Sivapalan, M., G. Blöschl, R. Merz, and D. Gutknecht (2005), Linking flood frequency to long-term water balance: Incorporating effects of seasonality, Water Resour. Res., 41, W06012, doi: 10.1029/2004WR003439. (Pubitemid 41004221)
78. Skaien, J. O., R. Merz, and G. Blöschl (2006), Top-kriging- Geostatistics on stream networks, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 10(2), 277-287.
79. Stedinger, J. R. (1983), Estimating a regional flood frequency distribution, Water Resour. Res., 19, 503-510, doi: 10.1029/WR019i002p00503.
80. Stedinger, J. R., and T. A. Cohn (1986), Flood frequency analysis with historical and paleoflood information, Water Resour. Res., 22(5), 785-793. (Pubitemid 180718)
81. Stedinger, J. R., and V. Griffis (2008), Flood frequency analysis in the United States: Time to update, J. Hydrol. Eng., 13(4), 199-204. (Pubitemid 351419942)
82. Stedinger, J. R., and G. D. Tasker (1985), Regional hydrologic analysis, 1, Ordinary, weighted, and generalized least squares compared, Water Resour. Res., 21(9), 1421-1432. (Pubitemid 17270095)
83. Stedinger, J. R., R. M. Vogel, and E. Foufoula-Georgiou (1993), Frequency analysis of extreme events, in Handbook of Hydrology, edited by D. R. Maidment, chap. 18, p. 66, McGraw-Hill, New York.
84. Taleb, N. N. (2007), The Black Swan-The Impact of the Highly Improbable, 366 pp., Random House, New York.
85. Tasker, G. D., and J. R. Stedinger (1989), An operational GLS model for hydrologic regression, J. Hydrol., 111(1-4), 361-375, doi:10.1016/0022-1694(89) 90268-0. (Pubitemid 20404016)
86. U. S. Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data (1982), Guidelines for Determining Flood Flow Frequency: Bulletin 17B of the Hydrology Subcommittee, Off. of Water Data Coordination, Reston, Va.
87. Vicens, G. J., I. Rodriguez-Iturbe, and J. C. J. Schaake (1975), A Bayesian framework for the use of regional information in hydrology, Water Resour. Res., 11(3), 405-414, doi:10.1029/WR011i003p00405.
88. Viglione, A., and G. Blöschl (2009), On the role of storm duration in the mapping of rainfall to flood return periods, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 13(2), 205-216, doi:10.5194/hess-13-205-2009.
89. Viglione, A., R. Merz, and G. Blöschl (2009), On the role of the runoff coefficient in the mapping of rainfall to flood return periods, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 13(5), 577-593, doi:10.5194/hess-13-577-2009.
90. Viglione, A., G. B. Chirico, J. Komma, R. A. Woods, M. Borga, and G. Blöschl (2010), Quantifying space-time dynamics of flood event types, J. Hydrol., 394, 213-229, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.05.041.
91. Vogel, R. M., and I. Wilson (1996), Probability distribution of annual maximum, mean, and minimum streamflows in the United States, J. Hydrol. Eng., 1(2), 69-76. (Pubitemid 126564616)
92. Wagener, T., H. V. Gupta, and H. S. Wheater (2004), Rainfall-Runoff Modelling in Gauged and Ungauged Catchments, Imperial College Press, London.
93. Wiesbauer, H. (2004), Historische U€berflutungen am Kamp, technical report, Wasser Niederösterreich, St. Pölten, O€sterreich, Germany.
94. Wiesbauer, H. (2007), Historische U€berflutungen am Kamp, in Extreme Abflussereignisse, Wiener Mitt., vol. 206, edited by D. Gutknecht, pp. 43-58, Inst. f€ur Wasserbau und Ingenieurhydrol., Vienna, Austria.
95. Wood, E. F., and I. Rodriguez-Iturbe (1975), Bayesian inference and decision making for extreme hydrologic events, Water Resour. Res., 11(4), 533-542, doi:10.1029/WR011i004p00533.