메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 371, Issue 1991, 2013, Pages

Analysis and modelling of glacial climate transitions using simple dynamical systems

Author keywords

Dansgaard Oeschger Events; Excitable System; Limit Cycle; Mixture Of Linear Models; Relaxation Oscillator; Stochastic Dynamical Systems

Indexed keywords

CLIMATOLOGY; DIGITAL STORAGE; DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS; GLACIAL GEOLOGY; HOPF BIFURCATION; MIXTURES; STOCHASTIC SYSTEMS;

EID: 84876571660     PISSN: 1364503X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2011.0472     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (28)

References (48)
  • 1
    • 0027878202 scopus 로고
    • Evidence of general instability of past climate from a 250-kyr ice-core record
    • (doi:10.1038/364218a0)
    • DansgaardWet al. 1993 Evidence of general instability of past climate from a 250-kyr ice-core record. Nature 364, 218-220. (doi:10.1038/364218a0)
    • (1993) Nature , vol.364 , pp. 218-220
    • Dansgaard, W.1
  • 2
    • 0035843151 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Rapid changes of glacial climate simulated in a coupled climate model
    • (doi:10.1038/35051500)
    • Ganopolski A, Rahmstorf S. 2001 Rapid changes of glacial climate simulated in a coupled climate model. Nature 409, 153-158. (doi:10.1038/ 35051500)
    • (2001) Nature , vol.409 , pp. 153-158
    • Ganopolski, A.1    Rahmstorf, S.2
  • 3
    • 4043099181 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Abrupt glacial climate changes due to stochastic resonance
    • doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.88.038501)
    • Ganopolski A, Rahmstorf S. 2002 Abrupt glacial climate changes due to stochastic resonance. Phys. Rev. Lett. 88, 038501. (doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.88. 038501)
    • (2002) Phys. Rev. Lett , vol.88 , pp. 038501
    • Ganopolski, A.1    Rahmstorf, S.2
  • 5
    • 0030730158 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dansgaard-oeschger oscillations in a coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model
    • (doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<0949:DOOIAC> 2.0.CO;2)
    • Sakai K, Peltier WR. 1997 Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations in a coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model. J. Climate 10, 949-970. (doi:10.1175/1520- 0442(1997)010<0949:DOOIAC> 2.0.CO;2)
    • (1997) J. Climate , vol.10 , pp. 949-970
    • Sakai, K.1    Peltier, W.R.2
  • 6
    • 0038742994 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Relaxation oscillators in concert: A framework for climate change atmillennial timescales during the late pleistocene
    • doi:10.1029/2002GL016144)
    • Schulz M, Paul A, Timmermann A. 2002 Relaxation oscillators in concert: a framework for climate change atmillennial timescales during the late Pleistocene. Geophys. Res. Lett. 29, 2193. (doi:10.1029/2002GL016144)
    • (2002) Geophys. Res. Lett , vol.29 , pp. 2193
    • Schulz, M.1    Paul, A.2    Timmermann, A.3
  • 7
    • 0141796615 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Coherent resonant millennialscale climate oscillations triggered by massive meltwater pulses
    • (doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003) 016<2569:CRMCOT>2.0.CO;2)
    • Timmermann A, Gildor H, Schulz M, Tziperman E. 2003 Coherent resonant millennialscale climate oscillations triggered by massive meltwater pulses. J. Climate 16, 2569-2585. (doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<2569:CRMCOT>2.0. CO;2)
    • (2003) J. Climate , vol.16 , pp. 2569-2585
    • Timmermann, A.1    Gildor, H.2    Schulz, M.3    Tziperman, E.4
  • 8
    • 0141923425 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Sea-ice switches and abrupt climate change
    • (doi:10.1098/rsta.20031244)
    • Gildor H, Tziperman E. 2003 Sea-ice switches and abrupt climate change. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. A 361, 1935-1944. (doi:10.1098/rsta.2003.1244)
    • (2003) Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. A , vol.361 , pp. 1935-1944
    • Gildor, H.1    Tziperman, E.2
  • 9
    • 27744522835 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Possible solar origin of the 1,470-year glacial climate cycle demonstrated in a coupled model
    • (doi:10.1038/nature04121)
    • Braun H, Christl M, Rahmstorf S, Ganopolski A, Mangini A, Kubatzki C, Roth K, Kromer B. 2005 Possible solar origin of the 1,470-year glacial climate cycle demonstrated in a coupled model. Nature 438, 208-211. (doi:10.1038/ nature04121)
    • (2005) Nature , vol.438 , pp. 208-211
    • Braun, H.1    Christl, M.2    Rahmstorf, S.3    Ganopolski, A.4    Mangini, A.5    Kubatzki, C.6    Roth, K.7    Kromer, B.8
  • 10
    • 0034984961 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Stochastic resonance in the north atlantic
    • (doi:10.1029/2000PA000518)
    • Alley RB, Anandakrishnan S, Jung P. 2001 Stochastic resonance in the North Atlantic. Paleoceanography 16, 190-198. (doi:10.1029/2000PA000518)
    • (2001) Paleoceanography , vol.16 , pp. 190-198
    • Alley, R.B.1    Anandakrishnan, S.2    Jung, P.3
  • 11
    • 0033562255 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Observation of α-stable noise induced millennial climate changes from an ice-core record
    • (doi:10.1029/1999GL900252)
    • Ditlevsen PD. 1999 Observation of α-stable noise induced millennial climate changes from an ice-core record. Geophys. Res. Lett. 26, 1441-1444. (doi:10.1029/1999GL900252)
    • (1999) Geophys. Res. Lett , vol.26 , pp. 1441-1444
    • Ditlevsen, P.D.1
  • 12
    • 71449087410 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Deriving dynamical models from paleoclimatic records: Application to glacial millennial-scale climate variability
    • doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.80.066104)
    • Kwasniok F, Lohmann G. 2009 Deriving dynamical models from paleoclimatic records: application to glacial millennial-scale climate variability. Phys. Rev. E 80, 066104. (doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.80.066104)
    • (2009) Phys. Rev. E , vol.80 , pp. 066104
    • Kwasniok, F.1    Lohmann, G.2
  • 13
    • 77149154992 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Potential analysis reveals changing number of climate states during the last 60 kyr
    • (doi:105194/cp-77-82 (doi:105194/c6
    • Livina VN, Kwasniok F, Lenton TM. 2010 Potential analysis reveals changing number of climate states during the last 60 kyr. Clim. Past 6, 77-82. (doi:10.5194/cp-6-77-2010)
    • (2010) Clim. Past , vol.6 , pp. 77-82
    • Livina, V.N.1    Kwasniok, F.2    Lenton, T.M.3
  • 14
    • 0002805066 scopus 로고
    • Stochastic resonance in climatic change
    • (doi101111/j2153-34901982tb01787x
    • Benzi R, Parisi G, Sutera A, Vulpiani A. 1982 Stochastic resonance in climatic change. Tellus 34, 10-16. (doi:10.1111/j.2153-3490.1982.tb01787.x)
    • (1982) Tellus , vol.34 , pp. 10-16
    • Benzi, R.1    Parisi, G.2    Sutera, A.3    Vulpiani, A.4
  • 15
    • 0002567630 scopus 로고
    • Stochastic aspects of climatic transitions: Response to a periodic forcing
    • (doi101111/j2153-34901982tb01786x
    • Nicolis C. 1982 Stochastic aspects of climatic transitions: response to a periodic forcing. Tellus 34, 1-9. (doi:10.1111/j.2153-3490.1982.tb01786.x)
    • (1982) Tellus , vol.34 , pp. 1-9
    • Nicolis, C.1
  • 16
    • 0000680546 scopus 로고
    • A simple heat-salt oscillator
    • (doi:101016/0377-233-242 (doi0265(82)90030
    • Welander P. 1982 A simple heat-salt oscillator. Dyn. Atmos. Oceans 6, 233-242. (doi:10.1016/0377-0265(82)90030-6)
    • (1982) Dyn. Atmos. Oceans , vol.6 , pp. 233-242
    • Welander, P.1
  • 17
    • 0033172541 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A dynamical systems model of the dansgaard-oeschger oscillation and the origin of the bond cycle
    • (doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1999) 012<2238:ADSMOT>2.0.CO;2)
    • Sakai K, Peltier WR. 1999 A dynamical systems model of the Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillation and the origin of the Bond cycle. J. Climate 12, 2238-2255. (doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<2238:ADSMOT>2.0.CO;2)
    • (1999) J. Climate , vol.12 , pp. 2238-2255
    • Sakai, K.1    Peltier, W.R.2
  • 18
    • 37349040972 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On box models of the atlantic thermohaline circulation: Intrinsic variability in response to deterministic and stochastic forcing
    • doi:10.1029/2006JC003938)
    • Stastna M, Peltier WR. 2007 On box models of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation: intrinsic variability in response to deterministic and stochastic forcing. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 112, C10023. (doi:10.1029/2006JC003938)
    • (2007) J. Geophys. Res. Oceans , vol.112
    • Stastna, M.1    Peltier, W.R.2
  • 19
    • 4744371124 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Glacial-interglacial contrast in climate variability at centennial-to-millennial timescales: Observations and conceptual model
    • (doi101016/jquascirev200408.014)
    • Schulz M, Paul A, Timmermann A. 2004 Glacial-interglacial contrast in climate variability at centennial-to-millennial timescales: observations and conceptual model. Quat. Sci. Rev. 23, 2219-2230. (doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2004. 08.014)
    • (2004) Quat. Sci. Rev , vol.23 , pp. 2219-2230
    • Schulz, M.1    Paul, A.2    Timmermann, A.3
  • 20
    • 1642403059 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Abrupt climate change: Chaos and order at orbital and millennial scales
    • (doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.200310.004)
    • Rial JA. 2004 Abrupt climate change: chaos and order at orbital and millennial scales. Glob. Planet. Change 41, 95-109. (doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha. 2003.10.004)
    • (2004) Glob. Planet. Change , vol.41 , pp. 95-109
    • Rial, J.A.1
  • 21
    • 58149085103 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Conceptual model for millennial climate variability: A possible combined solar-thermohaline circulation origin for the 1,500-year cycle
    • (doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0471-x)
    • Dima M, Lohmann G. 2009 Conceptual model for millennial climate variability: a possible combined solar-thermohaline circulation origin for the 1,500-year cycle. Clim. Dyn. 32, 301-311. (doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0471-x)
    • (2009) Clim. Dyn , vol.32 , pp. 301-311
    • Dima, M.1    Lohmann, G.2
  • 22
    • 36549055604 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A simple conceptual model of abrupt glacial climate events
    • (doi:105194/npg-709-721 (doi:105194/n14
    • Braun H, Ganopolski A, Christl M, Chialvo DR. 2007 A simple conceptual model of abrupt glacial climate events. Nonl. Proc. Geophys. 14, 709-721. (doi:10.5194/npg-14-709-2007)
    • (2007) Nonl. Proc. Geophys , vol.14 , pp. 709-721
    • Braun, H.1    Ganopolski, A.2    Christl, M.3    Chialvo, D.R.4
  • 23
    • 84876541107 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A stochastic nonlinear oscillator model for glacial millennialscale climate transitions derived from ice-core data
    • (doi:105194/npg-595-603 (doi:105194/n19
    • Kwasniok F, Lohmann G. 2012 A stochastic nonlinear oscillator model for glacial millennialscale climate transitions derived from ice-core data. Nonlinear Process. Geophys. 19, 595-603. (doi:10.5194/npg-19-595-2012)
    • (2012) Nonlinear Process. Geophys , vol.19 , pp. 595-603
    • Kwasniok, F.1    Lohmann, G.2
  • 24
    • 68249158087 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the use of simple dynamical systems for climate predictions: A bayesian prediction of the next glacial inception
    • (doi:101140/epjst/e2009-11-31 (doi:101140/epjst/01087
    • Crucifix M, Rougier J. 2009 On the use of simple dynamical systems for climate predictions: a Bayesian prediction of the next glacial inception. Eur. Phys. J. Spec. Top. 174, 11-31. (doi:10.1140/epjst/e2009-01087-5)
    • (2009) Eur. Phys. J. Spec. Top , vol.174 , pp. 11-31
    • Crucifix, M.1    Rougier, J.2
  • 25
    • 0034985804 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Oxygen isotope and palaeotemperature records from six greenland ice-core stations: Camp century, dye-3, grip, gisp2, renland and northgrip
    • (doi:10.1002/jqs.622)
    • Johnsen SJ et al. 2001 Oxygen isotope and palaeotemperature records from six Greenland ice-core stations: Camp Century, Dye-3, GRIP, GISP2, Renland and NorthGRIP. J. Q. Sci. 16, 299-307. (doi:10.1002/jqs.622)
    • (2001) J. Q. Sci , vol.16 , pp. 299-307
    • Johnsen, S.J.1
  • 26
    • 4544230974 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • High-resolution record of northern hemisphere climate extending into the last interglacial period
    • (doi:10.1038/nature02805)
    • Andersen KK et al. 2004 High-resolution record of northern hemisphere climate extending into the last interglacial period. Nature 431, 147-151. (doi:10.1038/nature02805)
    • (2004) Nature , vol.431 , pp. 147-151
    • Andersen, K.K.1
  • 27
    • 0019748641 scopus 로고
    • Stochastic aspects of climatic transitions-Additive fluctuations
    • (doi101111/j2153-34901981tb01746x
    • Nicolis C, Nicolis G. 1981 Stochastic aspects of climatic transitions-additive fluctuations. Tellus 33, 225-234. (doi:10.1111/j.2153-3490. 1981.tb01746.x)
    • (1981) Tellus , vol.33 , pp. 225-234
    • Nicolis, C.1    Nicolis, G.2
  • 28
    • 84857349629 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Oscillators and relaxation phenomena in pleistocene climate theory
    • (doi:10.1098/rsta.2011.0315)
    • Crucifix M. 2012 Oscillators and relaxation phenomena in Pleistocene climate theory. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 370, 1140-1165. (doi:10.1098/rsta.2011. 0315)
    • (2012) Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A , vol.370 , pp. 1140-1165
    • Crucifix, M.1
  • 29
    • 0022524005 scopus 로고
    • Influence of noise on duffing-van der pol oscillators
    • (doi:10.1002/zamm.19860660303)
    • EbelingW, Herzel H, RichertW, Schimansky-Geier L. 1986 Influence of noise on Duffing-van der Pol oscillators. Z. Angew. Math. Mech. 66, 141-146. (doi:10.1002/zamm.19860660303)
    • (1986) Z. Angew. Math. Mech , vol.66 , pp. 141-146
    • EbelingW Herzel, H.1    Richert, W.2    Schimansky-Geier, L.3
  • 30
    • 53349102813 scopus 로고
    • Impulses and physiological states in theoretical models of nerve membrane
    • (doi:101016/S0006-445-466 (doi3495(61)86902
    • FitzHugh RA. 1961 Impulses and physiological states in theoretical models of nerve membrane. Biophys. J. 1, 445-466. (doi:10.1016/S0006-3495(61)86902-6)
    • (1961) Biophys. J , vol.1 , pp. 445-466
    • FitzHugh, R.A.1
  • 31
    • 6344238035 scopus 로고
    • An active pulse transmission line simulating nerve axon
    • (doi101109/JRPROC1962288235
    • Nagumo J, Arimoto S, Yoshitzawa S. 1962 An active pulse transmission line simulating nerve axon. Proc. IRE 50, 2061-2070. (doi:10.1109/JRPROC.1962. 288235)
    • (1962) Proc. IRE , vol.50 , pp. 2061-2070
    • Nagumo, J.1    Arimoto, S.2    Yoshitzawa, S.3
  • 32
    • 84867006591 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimation of noise parameters in dynamical system identification with kalman filters
    • doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.86.036214)
    • Kwasniok F. 2012 Estimation of noise parameters in dynamical system identification with Kalman filters. Phys. Rev. E 86, 036214. (doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.86.036214)
    • (2012) Phys. Rev. E , vol.86 , pp. 036214
    • Kwasniok, F.1
  • 33
    • 0034178886 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Exact stationary solutions of the fokker-planck equation for nonlinear oscillators under stochastic parametric and external excitations
    • (doi:10.1088/0951-7715/13/3/322)
    • Wang R, Zhang Z. 2000 Exact stationary solutions of the Fokker-Planck equation for nonlinear oscillators under stochastic parametric and external excitations. Nonlinearity 13, 907-920. (doi:10.1088/0951-7715/13/3/322)
    • (2000) Nonlinearity , vol.13 , pp. 907-920
    • Wang, R.1    Zhang, Z.2
  • 34
    • 1142283165 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Effects of noise in excitable systems
    • (doi101016/jphysrep200310.015)
    • Lindner B, García-Ojalvo J, Neiman A, Schimansky-Geier L. 2004 Effects of noise in excitable systems. Phys. Rep. 392, 321-424. (doi:10.1016/j.physrep.2003.10.015)
    • (2004) Phys. Rep , vol.392 , pp. 321-424
    • Lindner, B.1    García-Ojalvo, J.2    Neiman, A.3    Schimansky-Geier, L.4
  • 35
    • 0000912646 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Coherence resonance in a noise-driven excitable system
    • (doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.78.775)
    • Pikovsky AS, Kurths J. 1997 Coherence resonance in a noise-driven excitable system. Phys. Rev. Lett. 78, 775-778. (doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.78.775)
    • (1997) Phys. Rev. Lett , vol.78 , pp. 775-778
    • Pikovsky, A.S.1    Kurths, J.2
  • 36
    • 0033723743 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A new method for the nonlinear transformation of means and covariances in filters and estimators
    • (doi:10.1109/9.847726)
    • Julier S, Uhlmann J, Durrant-Whyte HF. 2000 A new method for the nonlinear transformation of means and covariances in filters and estimators. IEEE Trans. Autom. Control 45, 477-482. (doi:10.1109/9.847726)
    • (2000) IEEE Trans. Autom. Control , vol.45 , pp. 477-482
    • Julier, S.1    Uhlmann, J.2    Durrant-Whyte, H.F.3
  • 37
    • 0002629270 scopus 로고
    • Maximum likelihood from incomplete data via em algorithm
    • (doi:10.2307/2984875)
    • Dempster AP, Laird NM, Rubin DB. 1977 Maximum likelihood from incomplete data via EM algorithm. J. Roy. Stat. Soc. B 39, 1-38. (doi:10.2307/2984875)
    • (1977) J. Roy. Stat. Soc. B , vol.39 , pp. 1-38
    • Dempster, A.P.1    Laird, N.M.2    Rubin, D.B.3
  • 39
    • 0000353178 scopus 로고
    • A maximization technique occurring in the statistical analysis of probabilistic functions of markov chains
    • (doi:10.1214/aoms/1177697196)
    • Baum LE, Petrie T, Soules G, Weiss N. 1970 A maximization technique occurring in the statistical analysis of probabilistic functions of Markov chains. Ann. Math. Stat. 41, 164-171. (doi:10.1214/aoms/1177697196)
    • (1970) Ann. Math. Stat , vol.41 , pp. 164-171
    • Baum, L.E.1    Petrie, T.2    Soules, G.3    Weiss, N.4
  • 40
    • 0033611505 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Cluster-weightedmodelling for time series analysis
    • (doi:10.1038/16873)
    • GershenfeldN, Schoner B, Metois E. 1999 Cluster-weightedmodelling for time series analysis. Nature 397, 329-332. (doi:10.1038/16873)
    • (1999) Nature , vol.397 , pp. 329-332
    • Gershenfeld, N.1    Schoner, B.2    Metois, E.3
  • 42
    • 0000558731 scopus 로고
    • Rational decisions
    • Good IJ. 1952 Rational decisions. J. R. Stat. Soc. 14, 107-114.
    • (1952) J. R. Stat. Soc , vol.14 , pp. 107-114
    • Good, I.J.1
  • 43
    • 79958181387 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A mathematical framework for critical transitions: Bifurcations fast-slow systems and stochastic dynamics
    • (doi:10.1016/j.physd.2011.02.012)
    • Kuehn C. 2011 A mathematical framework for critical transitions: bifurcations, fast-slow systems and stochastic dynamics. Physica D 240, 1020-1035. (doi:10.1016/j.physd.2011.02.012)
    • (2011) Physica D , vol.240 , pp. 1020-1035
    • Kuehn, C.1
  • 44
    • 81455144581 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Changing climate states and stability: From pliocene to present
    • (doi:101007/s00382-2437-2453 (doi:101007/s00010
    • Livina VN, Kwasniok F, Lohmann G, Kantelhardt JW, Lenton TM. 2011 Changing climate states and stability: from Pliocene to present. Climate Dynamics 37, 2437-2453. (doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0980-2)
    • (2011) Climate Dynamics , vol.37 , pp. 2437-2453
    • Livina, V.N.1    Kwasniok, F.2    Lohmann, G.3    Kantelhardt, J.W.4    Lenton, T.M.5
  • 45
    • 84855845904 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bistable systems with stochastic noise: Virtues and limits of effective one-dimensional langevin equations
    • (doi:105194/npg-9-22 (doi:105194/n19
    • Lucarini V, Faranda D, Willeit M. 2012 Bistable systems with stochastic noise: virtues and limits of effective one-dimensional Langevin equations. Nonlin. Process. Geophys. 19, 9-22. (doi:10.5194/npg-19-9-2012)
    • (2012) Nonlin. Process. Geophys , vol.19 , pp. 9-22
    • Lucarini, V.1    Faranda, D.2    Willeit, M.3
  • 46
    • 41549095952 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A 60 000 year greenland stratigraphic ice core chronology
    • (doi:105194/cp-47-57 (doi:105194/c4
    • Svensson A et al. 2008 A 60 000 year Greenland stratigraphic ice core chronology. Clim. Past 4, 47-57. (doi:10.5194/cp-4-47-2008)
    • (2008) Clim. Past , vol.4 , pp. 47-57
    • Svensson, A.1
  • 47
    • 64049095307 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the stochastic nature of the rapid climate shifts during the last ice age
    • (doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2430.1)
    • Ditlevsen PD, Ditlevsen OD. 2009 On the stochastic nature of the rapid climate shifts during the last ice age. J. Clim. 22, 446-457. (doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2430.1)
    • (2009) J. Clim , vol.22 , pp. 446-457
    • Ditlevsen, P.D.1    Ditlevsen, O.D.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.