Important factors for long-term change in ENSO transitivity

International Journal of Climatology

Volumn 33, Issue 6, 2013, Pages 1495-1509

  Ohba, Masamichi ^a  

^a CENTRAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF ELECTRIC POWER INDUSTRY   (Japan)

Author keywords

AGCM; ENSO asymmetry; ENSO transition; Indian Ocean; Long term variation

Indexed keywords

AGCM; ENSO ASYMMETRY; ENSO TRANSITION; INDIAN OCEAN; LONG-TERM VARIATIONS;

ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE; ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE;

EXPERIMENTS;

AMPLITUDE; ATMOSPHERIC GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; CLIMATE CHANGE; DECADAL VARIATION; EASTERLY WAVE; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; LA NINA; LONG-TERM CHANGE; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; TEMPERATURE ANOMALY; ZONAL WIND;

INDIAN OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN (WEST);

EID: 84876311388     PISSN: 08998418     EISSN: 10970088     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/joc.3529     Document Type: Article

References (68)

1. An SI, Ham YG, Kug JS, Jin FF, Kang IS. 2005. El Niño-La Niña asymmetry in the coupled model intercomparison project simulations. Journal of Climate 18: 2617-2627.
2. An SI, Ham YG, Kug JS, Timmermann A, Choi J, Kang IS. 2010. The inverse effect of annual-mean state and annual-cycle changes on ENSO. Journal of Climate 23: 1095-1110.
3. Annamalai H, Xie SP, McCreary JP, Murtugudde R. 2005. Impact of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature on developing El Niño. Journal of Climate 18: 302-319.
4. Bryden HL, Brady EC. 1989. Eddy momentum and heat fluxes and their effects on the circulation of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Journal of Marine Research 47: 55-79.
5. Carton JA, Giese BS. 2008. A reanalysis of ocean climate using simple ocean data assimilation (SODA). Monthly Weather Review 136: 2999-3017.
6. Choi J, An SI, Kug JS, Yeh SW. 2011. The role of mean state on changes in El Niño's flavor. Climate Dynamics 37: 1205-1215, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0912-1.
7. Delworth TL, Broccoli AJ, Rosati A, Stouffer RJ, Balaji V, Beesley JA, Cooke WF, Dixon KW, Dunne J, Dunne KA, Durachta JW, Findell KL, Ginoux P, Gnanadesikan A, Gordon CT, Griffies SM, Gudgel R, Harrison MJ, Held IM, Hemler RS, Horowitz LW, Klein SA, Knutson TR, Kushner PJ, Langenhorst AR, Lee H-C, Lin S-J, Lu J, Malyshev SL, Milly PCD, Ramaswamy V, Russell J, Schwarzkopf MD, Shevliakova E, Sirutis JJ, Spelman MJ, Stern WF, Winton M, Wittenberg AT, Wyman B, Zeng F, Zhangc R. 2006. GFDL's CM2 global coupled climate models. Part I: formulation and simulation characteristics. Journal of Climate 19: 634-674.
8. Deser C, Phillips AS, Alexander MA. 2010. Twentieth century tropical sea surface temperature trends revisited. Geophysical Research Letters 37: L10701, DOI: 10.1029/2010GL043321.
9. Flament PJ, Kennan SC, Knox RA, Niiler PP, Bernstein RL. 1996. The three-dimensional structure of an upper ocean vortex in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Nature 383: 610-613.
10. Gu D, Philander SGH. 1997. Interdecadal climate fluctuations that depend on exchanges between the tropics and extratropics. Science 275: 805-807.
11. Ham YG, Kug JS, Kang IS. 2007. Role of moist energy advection in formulating anomalous walker circulation associated with El Niño. Journal of Geophysical Research 112: D24105, DOI: 10.1029/2007JD008744.
12. Hasegawa T, Horii T, Hanawa K. 2006. Two different features of discharge of equatorial upper ocean heat content related to El Niño events. Geophysical Research Letters 33: L02609, DOI: 10.1029/2005GL024832.
13. Hoerling MP, Kumar A. 2003. The perfect ocean for drought. Science 299: 691-694.
14. Hoerling MP, Kumar A, Zhong M. 1997. El Niño, La Niña, and the nonlinearity of their teleconnections. Journal of Climate 10: 1769-1786.
15. Hoerling MP, Kumar A, Xu TY. 2001. Robustness of the nonlinear atmospheric response to opposite phases of ENSO. Journal of Climate 14: 1277-1293.
16. Horii T, Hanawa K. 2004. A relationship between timing of El Niño onset and subsequent evolution. Geophysical Research Letters 31: L06304, DOI: 10.1029/2003/GL019239.
17. Huang G, Hu K, Xie SP. 2010. Strengthening of tropical Indian Ocean teleconnection to the Northwest Pacific since the mid-1970s: an atmospheric GCM study. Journal of Climate 23: 5294-5304.
18. Imada Y, Kimoto M. 2009. ENSO amplitude modulation related to Pacific decadal variability. Geophysical Research Letters 36: L03706, DOI: 10.1029/2008GL036421.
19. Imada Y, Kimoto M, Chen X. 2012. Impact of atmospheric mean state on tropical instability wave activity. Journal of Climate. 25: 2341-2355.
20. Izumo T, Vialard J, Lengaigne M, Montegut CB, Behera SK, Luo JJ, Cravatte S, Masson S, Yamagata T. 2010. Influence of the Indian Ocean dipole state on following year's El Niño. Nature Geoscience 3: 168-172.
21. Jin FF. 1997. An equatorial ocean recharge paradigm for ENSO. Part I: conceptual model. Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 54: 811-829.
22. Johnson ES, Proehl JA. 2004. Tropical instability wave variability in the Pacific and its relation to large-scale currents. Journal of Physical Oceanography 34: 2121-2147.
23. Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Zhu Y, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Higgins W, Janowiak J, Mo KC, Ropelewski C, Wang J, Leetmaa A, Reynolds R, Jenne R, Joseph D. 1996. NCEP/NCAr 40 year reanalysis Project. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 77: 437-471.
24. Kang IS, Kug JS. 2002. El Niño and La Niña sea surface temperature anomalies: asymmetry characteristics associated with their wind stress anomalies. Journal of Geophysical Research 107: 4372, DOI: 10.1029/2001JD000393.
25. Kessler WS. 2002. Is ENSO a cycle or a series of events? Geophysical Research Letters 29: 2125, DOI: 10.1029/2002GL015924.
26. Kinter JL, Miyakoda K, Yang S. 2002. Recent changes in the connection from the Asian monsoon to ENSO. Journal of Climate 15: 1203-1215.
27. Klein SA, Soden BJ, Lau NC. 1999. Remote sea surface temperature variations during ENSO: evidence for a tropical atmospheric bridge. Journal of Climate 12: 917-932.
28. Kug JS, Choi J, An SI, Jin FF, Wittenberg AT. 2010. Warm pool and cold tongue El Niño events as simulated by the GFDL 2.1 coupled GCM. Journal of Climate 23: 1226-1239.
29. Kug JS, Kang IS. 2006. Interactive feedback between the Indian Ocean and ENSO. Journal of Climate 19: 1784-1801.
30. Larkin NK, Harrison DE. 2002. ENSO warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) event life cycles: ocean surface anomaly patterns, their symmetries, asymmetries, and implications. Journal of Climate 15: 1118-1140.
31. Lee T, McPhaden MJ. 2010. Increasing intensity of El Niño in the central-equatorial Pacific. Geophysical Research Letters 37: L14603, DOI:10.1029/2010GL044007.
32. McPhaden MJ, Zhang X. 2009. Asymmetry in zonal phase propagation of ENSO sea surface temperature anomalies. Geophysical Research Letters 36: L13703, DOI:10.1029/2009GL038774.
33. Meehl GA, Covey C, Delworth T, Latif M, McAvaney B, Mitchell JFB, Stouffer RJ, Taylor KE. 2007. The WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset: a new era in climate change research. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 88: 1383-1394.
34. Nagura M, Ando K, Mizuno K. 2008. Pausing of the ENSO cycle: a case study from 1998 to 2002. Journal of Climate 21: 342-363.
35. Nitta T, Yamada S. 1989. Recent warming of tropical sea surface temperature and its relationship to the Northern Hemisphere circulation. Journal of Meteorological Society of Japan 67: 375-383.
36. Nonaka M, Xie SP, McCreary JP. 2002. Decadal variations in the subtropical cells and equatorial pacific SST. Geophysical Research Letters 29: 1116, DOI: 10.1029/2001GL013717.
37. Ohba M, Nohara D, Ueda H. 2010. Simulation of asymmetric ENSO transition in WCRP CMIP3 multimodel experiments. Journal of Climate 23: 6051-6067.
38. Ohba M, Ueda H. 2007. An impact of SST anomalies in the Indian Ocean in acceleration of the El Niño to La Niña transition. Journal of Meteorological Society of Japan 85: 335-348.
39. Ohba M, Ueda H. 2009. Role of nonlinear atmospheric response to SST on the asymmetric transition process of ENSO. Journal of Climate 22: 177-192.
40. Ohba M, Watanabe M. 2012. Role of the Indo-Pacific interbasin coupling in predicting asymmetric ENSO transition and duration. Journal of Climate 25: 3321-3335.
41. Okumura YM, Deser C. 2010. Asymmetry in the duration of El Niño and La Niña. Journal of Climate 23: 5826-5843.
42. Okumura YM, Ohba M, Deser C, Ueda H. 2011. A mechanism for asymmetry in the duration of El Niño and La Niña. Journal of Climate 24: 3822-3829.
43. Rayner NA, Parker DE, Horton EB, Folland CK, Alexander LV, Rowell DP, Kent EC, Kaplan A. 2003. Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. Journal of Geophysical Research 108(D14): 4407, DOI: 10.1029/2002JD002670.
44. Rodgers KB, Friederichs P, Latif M. 2004. Tropical Pacific decadal variability and its relation to decadal modulation of ENSO. Journal of Climate 17: 3761-3774.
45. Schopf PS, Suarez MJ. 1988. Vacillations in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 45: 549-566.
46. Shibata K, Yoshimura H, Ohizumi M, Hosaka M, Sugi M. 1999. A simulation of troposphere, stratosphere and mesosphere with an MRI/JMA98 GCM. Papers in Meteorology and Geophysics 50: 15-53.
47. Smith TM, Reynolds RW, Peterson TC, Lawrimore J. 2008. Improvements to NOAA's historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880-2006). Journal of Climate 21: 2283-2296.
48. Timmermann A, Jin FF, Abshagen J. 2003. A nonlinear theory for El Niño bursting. Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 60: 152-165.
49. Tomita T, Yasunari T. 1993. On the two types of ENSO. Journal of Meteorological Society of Japan 71: 273-284.
50. Ueda H, Kawamura R. 2004. Summertime anomalous warming over the midlatitude Western North Pacific and its relationships to the modulation of the Asian monsoon. International Journal of Climatology 24: 1109-1120.
51. Vecchi GA. 2006. The termination of the 1997-98 El Niño. Part II: mechanisms of atmospheric change. Journal of Climate 19: 2647-2664.
52. Vecchi GA, Harrison DE. 2006. The termination of the 1997-98 El Niño. Part I: mechanisms of oceanic change. Journal of Climate 19: 2633-2646.
53. Wallace JM, Rasmusson EM, Mitchell TP, Kousky VE, Sarachik ES, Storch H. 1998. On the structure and evolution of ENSO-related climate variability in the tropical Pacific: lessons from TOGA. Journal of Geophysical Research 103: 14241-14259.
54. Wang B. 1995. Interdecadal changes in El Niño onset in the last four decades. Journal of Climate 8: 267-285.
55. Wang C. 2001. A unified oscillator model for the El Niño-southern oscillation. Journal of Climate 14: 98-115.
56. Wang B, Wu R, Fu X. 2000. Pacific-East Asia teleconnection: how does ENSO affect east Asian climate? Journal of Climate 13: 1517-1536.
57. Watanabe M, Chikira M, Imada Y, Kimoto M. 2011. Convective control of ENSO simulated in MIROC. Journal of Climate 24: 543-562.
58. Watanabe M, Jin FF. 2002. Role of Indian Ocean warming in the development of the Philippine Sea anticyclone during El Niño. Geophysical Research Letters 29:DOI: 10.1029/2001GL014318.
59. Watanabe M, Jin FF. 2003. A moist linear baroclinic model: coupled dynamical-convective response to El Niño. Journal of Climate 16: 1121-1139.
60. Weisberg RH, Wang C. 1997. Slow variability in the equatorial West-Central Pacific in relation to ENSO. Journal of Climate 10: 1998-2017.
61. Wittenberg AT. 2009. Are historical records sufficient to constrain ENSO simulations? Geophysical Research Letters 36: L12702, DOI: 10.1029/2009GL038710.
62. Wittenberg AT, Rosati A, Lau NC, Ploshay JJ. 2006. GFDL's CM2 global coupled climate models. Part III: tropical Pacific climate and ENSO. Journal of Climate 19: 698-722.
63. Xie SP, Annamalai H, Schott FA, McCreary JP. 2002. Structure and mechanisms of south Indian Ocean climate variability. Journal of Climate 15: 867-878.
64. Xie SP, Du Y, Huang G, Zheng XT, Tokinaga H, Hu K, Liu Q. 2010. Decadal shift in El Niño influences on Indo-western Pacific and East Asian climate in the 1970s. Journal of Climate 23: 3352-3368.
65. Yanai M, Esbensen S, Chu JH. 1973. Determination of bulk properties of tropical cloud clusters from large-scale heat and moisture budgets. Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 30: 611-627.
66. Yeh SW, Kirtman BP. 2004. Tropical Pacific decadal variability and ENSO amplitude modulation in a CGCM. Journal of Geophysical Research 109: C11009, DOI: 10.1029/2004JC002442.
67. Yukimoto S, Noda A, Kitoh A, Sugi M, Kitamura Y, Hosaka M, Shibata K, Maeda S, Uchiyama T. 2001. The new Meteorological Research Institute coupled GCM (MRI-CGCM2) model climate and variability. Papers in Meteorology and Geophysics 51: 47-88.
68. Yukimoto S, Noda A, Kitoh A, Hosaka M, Yoshimura H, Uchiyama T, Shibata K, Arakawa O, Kusunoki S. 2006. Present-day climate and climate sensitivity in the Meteorological Research Institute coupled GCM version 2.3 (MRI-CGCM2.3). Journal of Meteorological Society of Japan 84: 333-363.