Evaluation of modeled changes in extreme precipitation in Europe and the Rhine basin

Environmental Research Letters

Volumn 8, Issue 1, 2013, Pages

  Haren, Ronald Van ^a   Oldenborgh, Geert Jan Van ^a   Lenderink, Geert ^a   Hazeleger, Wilco ^a,b  

^a ROYAL NETHERLANDS METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE KNMI   (Netherlands)

^b WAGENINGEN UNIVERSITY   (Netherlands)

Author keywords

Europe; extremes; models; observations; precipitation; Rhine; trends; validation

Indexed keywords

CLIMATOLOGY; COMPUTER SIMULATION; LASERS; MODELS; PRECIPITATION (CHEMICAL); PRECIPITATION (METEOROLOGY); SEA LEVEL;

EUROPE; EXTREMES; OBSERVATIONS; RHINE; TRENDS; VALIDATION;

CLIMATE MODELS;

ACCURACY ASSESSMENT; ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION; CLIMATE MODELING; EXTREME EVENT; MODEL VALIDATION; NUMERICAL MODEL; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); REGIONAL CLIMATE; SEA LEVEL PRESSURE; SIGNAL;

RHINE BASIN;

EID: 84876196329     PISSN: None     EISSN: 17489326     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014053     Document Type: Article

References (29)

1. Annan J and Hargreaves J 2010 Reliability of the CMIP3 ensemble Geophys. Res. Lett. 37 L02703
2. Barnett T P, Adams J C and Lettenmeier D P 2005 Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions Nature 438 303-9 (Pubitemid 41643941)
3. Benestad R, Nychka D and Mearns L 2012 Specification of wet-day daily rainfall quantiles from the mean value Tellus A 64 14981
4. Buishand T A, De Martino G, Spreeuw J and Brandsma T 2012 Homogeneity of precipitation series in The Netherlands and their trends in the past century Int. J. Climatol. 33 815-33
5. Compo G P et al 2011 The twentieth century reanalysis project Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 137 1-28
6. Disse M and Engel H 2001 Flood events in the rhine basin: genesis, influences and mitigation Nat. Hazards 23 271-90 (Pubitemid 32399691)
7. Haarsma R, Selten F and van Oldenborgh G 2013 Anthropogenic changes of the thermal and zonal flow structure over Western Europe and Eastern North Atlantic in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models Clim. Dyn. at press (doi:10.1007/s00382-013- 1734-8)
8. Haylock M R, Hofstra N, Tank A M G K, Klok E J, Jones P D and New M 2008 A European daily high-resolution gridded data set of surface temperature and precipitation for 1950-2006 J. Geophys. Res. 113 D20119
9. Hofstra N, New M and McSweeney C 2010 The influence of interpolation and station network density on the distributions and trends of climate variables in gridded daily data Clim. Dyn. 35 841-58
10. Hurkmans R, Terink W, Uijlenhoet R, Torfs P, Jacob D and Troch P A 2010 Changes in streamflow dynamics in the rhine basin under three high-resolution regional climate scenarios J. Clim. 23 679-99
11. IPCC 2007 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ed S Solomon, D Qin, M Manning, Z Chen, M Marquis, K B Averyt, M Tignor and H L Miller (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press)
12. Katz R W, Parlange M B and Naveau P 2002 Statistics of extremes in hydrology Adv. Water Resourc. 25 1287-304 (Pubitemid 35465151)
13. Kew S F, Selten F M, Lenderink G and Hazeleger W 2010 Robust assessment of future changes in extreme precipitation over the rhine basin using a GCM Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. 7 9043-66
14. Kharin V and Zwiers F 2005 Estimating extremes in transient climate change simulations J. Clim. 18 1156-73 (Pubitemid 40717074)
15. Kistler R et al 2001 The ncep-ncar 50-year reanalysis: monthly means cd-rom and documentation Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 82 247-67 (Pubitemid 33622659)
16. Lenderink G, Buishand A and van Deursen W 2007 Estimates of future discharges of the river rhine using two scenario methodologies: direct versus delta approach Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 11 1145-59 (Pubitemid 46707021)
17. Meehl G A, Covey C, Delworth T L, Latif M, McAvaney B, Mitchell J F B, Stouffer R J and Taylor K E 2007 The WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset: a new era in climate change research Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 88 1383-94 (Pubitemid 47616759)
18. Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst 2012 Droogtestudie Lobith (http://apps.helpdeskwater.nl/droogtestudie/lobith/)
19. Shabalova V, van Deursen W and Buishand T 2003 Assessing future discharge of the river rhine using regional climate model integrations and a hydrological model Clim. Res. 23 233-46 (Pubitemid 36639937)
20. Taylor K E, Stouffer R J and Meehl G A 2011 An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 93 485-98
21. te Linde A H, Aerts J C JH, Bakker A M R and Kwadijk J C J 2010 Simulating low-probability peak discharges for the Rhine basin using resampled climate modeling data Water Resources Res. 46 W03512
22. Trenberth K E and Paolino D A 1980 The Northern Hemisphere sea level pressure data set: trends, errors, and discontinuities Mon. Weather Rev. 108 855-72
23. Ulbrich U, Pinto J, Kupfer H, Leckebusch G, Spangehl T and Reyers M 2008 Changing northern hemisphere storm tracks in an ensemble of IPCC climate change simulations J. Clim. 21 1669 (Pubitemid 351753175)
24. van der Linden P and Mitchell J F B (ed) 2009 ENSEMBLES: Climate Change and its Impacts: Summary of Research and Results from the ENSEMBLES Project (Exeter: Met Office Hadley Centre)
25. van Haren R, van Oldenborgh G J, Lenderink G, Collins M and Hazeleger W 2013 SST and circulation trend biases cause an underestimation of European precipitation trends Clim. Dyn. 40 1-20
26. van Oldenborgh G J, Drijfhout S S, van Ulden A P, Haarsma R, Sterl A, Severijns C, Hazeleger W and Dijkstra H A 2009 Western Europe is warming much faster than expected Clim. Past 5 1-12
27. van Pelt S C, Beersma J J, Buishand T A, van den Hurk B J J M and Kabat P 2012 Future changes in extreme precipitation in the rhine basin based on global and regional climate model simulations Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 16 4517-30
28. van Ulden A P and van Oldenborgh G J 2006 Large-scale atmospheric circulation biases and changes in global climate model simulations and their importance for climate change in Central Europe Atmos. Chem. Phys. 6 863-81
29. Wang W, van Gelder P and Vrijling J 2005 Proc. IWA Int. Conf. on Water Economics, Statistics, and Finance (Rethymno, Greece, July 2005) pp 481-90