Futures of global urban expansion: Uncertainties and implications for biodiversity conservation

Environmental Research Letters

Volumn 8, Issue 1, 2013, Pages

  Guneralp B ^a   Seto, K C ^b  

^a TEXAS A AND M UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b Yale School of the Environment   (United States)

Author keywords

and change; and use; cosystem; sustainability

Indexed keywords

BIODIVERSITY; ECONOMICS; ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION; FORECASTING; SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT; URBAN GROWTH;

AND CHANGE; AND USE; BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION; CO SYSTEMS; ECONOMIC GROWTHS; PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS; URBAN DEVELOPMENT; URBAN POPULATION;

CONSERVATION;

BIODIVERSITY; CONSERVATION STATUS; LAND COVER; PROBABILITY; PROTECTED AREA; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; URBAN AREA; URBANIZATION;

CHINA; SOUTH AMERICA;

EID: 84876187737     PISSN: None     EISSN: 17489326     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014025     Document Type: Article

References (61)

1. UN 2012 World Urbanization Prospects: The 2011 Revision Highlights (New York: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division) (http://esa.un.org/unup/pdf/WUP2011-Highlights.pdf)
2. Angel S, Parent J, Civco D L, Blei A and Potere D 2011 The dimensions of global urban expansion: estimates and projections for all countries, 2000-2050 Prog. Plann. 75 53-107
3. Seto K C, Fragkias M, Güneralp B and Reilly M K 2011 A meta-analysis of global urban land expansion PLoS One 6 e23777
4. Seto K C, Güneralp B and Hutyra L R 2012 Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 109 16083-8
5. Cohen B 2004 Urban growth in developing countries: a review of current trends and a caution regarding existing forecasts World Dev. 32 23-51 (Pubitemid 38003101)
6. McKinney M L 2002 Urbanization, biodiversity, and conservation Bioscience 52 883-90 (Pubitemid 35181478)
7. McKinney M L 2006 Urbanization as a major cause of biotic homogenization Biol. Conserv. 127 247-60 (Pubitemid 41728073)
8. Bierwagen B G 2007 Connectivity in urbanizing landscapes: the importance of habitat configuration, urban area size, and dispersal Urban Ecosyst. 10 29-42 (Pubitemid 46046933)
9. Ricketts T H 2001 The matrix matters: effective isolation in fragmented landscapes Am. Nat. 158 87-99 (Pubitemid 32550582)
10. Alberti M 2005 The effects of urban patterns on ecosystem function Int. Reg. Sci. Rev. 28 168-92
11. Tratalos J, Fuller R A, Warren P H, Davies R G and Gaston K J 2007 Urban form, biodiversity potential and ecosystem services Landscape Urban Plann. 83 308-17 (Pubitemid 350087302)
12. McDonald R I, Forman R T T, Kareiva P, Neugarten R, Salzer D and Fisher J 2009 Urban effects, distance, and protected areas in an urbanizing world Landsc. Urban Plann. 93 63-75
13. McDonald R I, Kareiva P and Forman R T T 2008 The implications of current and future urbanization for global protected areas and biodiversity conservation Biol. Conserv. 141 1695-703
14. Benítez G, Pérez-Vázquez A, Nava-Tablada M, Equihua M and Álvarez-Palacios J L 2012 Urban expansion and the environmental effects of informal settlements on the outskirts of Xalapa city, Veracruz, Mexico Environ. Urban. 24 149-66
15. Pauchard A, Aguayo M, Peña E and Urrutia R 2006 Multiple effects of urbanization on the biodiversity of developing countries: the case of a fast-growing metropolitan area (Concepción, Chile) Biol. Conserv. 127 272-81 (Pubitemid 41728075)
16. Wang G et al 2007 Biodiversity conservation in a fast-growing metropolitan area in China: a case study of plant diversity in Beijing Biodivers. Conserv. 16 4025-38 (Pubitemid 350105390)
17. Vimal R, Geniaux G, Pluvinet P, Napoleone C and Lepart J 2012 Detecting threatened biodiversity by urbanization at regional and local scales using an urban sprawl simulation approach: application on the French Mediterranean region Landsc. Urban Plann. 104 343-55
18. Borgström S, Cousins S A O and Lindborg R 2012 Outside the boundary - land use changes in the surroundings of urban nature reserves Appl. Geogr. 32 350-9
19. Mercer D and Hyman G 2009 Unfulfilled promise: the case of the Mornington Peninsula and western Port biosphere reserve, Australia Aust. Geogr. 40 409-27
20. Nelson E et al 2010 Projecting global land-use change and its effect on ecosystem service provision and biodiversity with simple models PLoS One 5 e14327
21. Lutz W and Goldstein J R 2004 Introduction: how to deal with uncertainty in population forecasting? Int. Stat. Rev. 72 1-4 (Pubitemid 38845746)
22. Brooks T M et al 2006 Global biodiversity conservation priorities Science 313 58-61 (Pubitemid 44051249)
23. Kareiva P and Marvier M 2003 Conserving biodiversity coldspots Am. Sci. 91 344-51 (Pubitemid 36965033)
24. Possingham H P and Wilson K A 2005 Biodiversity: turning up the heat on hotspots Nature 436 919-20 (Pubitemid 41191658)
25. Mace G M et al 2000 It's time to work together and stop duplicating conservation efforts... Nature 405 393 (Pubitemid 30367392)
26. Dudley N (ed) 2008 Guidelines for Applying Protected Areas Management Categories (Gland: International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN))
27. Hansen A J and DeFries R 2007 Ecological mechanisms linking protected areas to surrounding lands Ecol. Appl. 17 974-88 (Pubitemid 351328138)
28. DeFries R, Hansen A, Newton A C and Hansen M C 2005 Increasing isolation of protected areas in tropical forests over the past twenty years Ecol. Appl. 15 19-26 (Pubitemid 40263565)
29. Seto K C and Kaufmann R K 2003 Modeling the drivers of Urban land use change in the Pearl River Delta, China: integrating remote sensing with socioeconomic data Land Econom. 79 106-21 (Pubitemid 36435173)
30. Liu J, Zhan J and Deng X 2005 Spatio-temporal patterns and driving forces of urban land expansion in China during the economic reform era Ambio 34 450-5 (Pubitemid 41196556)
31. Alho J M 1997 Scenarios, uncertainty and conditional forecasts of the world population J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. A 160 71-85 (Pubitemid 127050488)
32. Pritchett L 2000 Understanding patterns of economic growth: searching for Hills among Plateaus, Mountains, and Plains World Bank Econ. Rev. 14 221-50
33. Pontius R G, Cornell J D and Hall C A S 2001 Modeling the spatial pattern of land-use change with GEOMOD2: application and validation for Costa Rica Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 85 191-203 (Pubitemid 32480614)
34. CIESIN 2002 Country-Level GDP and Downscaled Projections based on the A1, A2, B1, and B2 Marker Scenarios, 1990-2100 [digital version] (Palisades, NY: Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University) (available from: www.ciesin.columbia.edu/datasets/downscaled)
35. UN 2010 World Urbanization Prospects: The 2009 Revision (New York: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division)
36. NRC 2000 Beyond Six Billion: Forecasting the World's Population (National Research Council, Washington, DC: National Academy Press)
37. CIESIN 2010 Gridded Population of the World, Version 3 (GPWv3) and the Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project (GRUMP): Center for International Earth Science Information Network (available from: http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/ gpw/)
38. Schneider A, Friedl M A and Potere D 2009 A new map of global urban extent from MODIS satellite data Environ. Res. Lett. 4 044003
39. Mittermeier R A, Robles-Gil P, Hoffmann M, Pilgrim J D, Brooks T B, Mittermeier C G, Lamoreux J L and Fonseca G A B 2004 Hotspots Revisited: Earth's Biologically Richest and Most Endangered Ecoregions (Mexico City: CEMEX)
40. Myers N, Mittermeier R A, Mittermeier C G, da Fonseca G A B and Kent J 2000 Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities Nature 403 853-8 (Pubitemid 30130979)
41. McBeath J and McBeath J H 2006 Biodiversity conservation in China: policies and practice J. Int. Wildl. Law Policy 9 293-317 (Pubitemid 44896568)
42. Yu X 2010 Biodiversity conservation in China: barriers and future actions Int. J. Environ. Studies 67 117-26
43. Naughton-Treves L, Holland M B and Brandon K 2005 The role of protected areas in conserving biodiversity and sustaining local livelihoods Annu. Rev. Environ. Resources 30 219-52 (Pubitemid 41750941)
44. Irland L C 2008 State failure, corruption, and warfare: challenges for forest policy J. Sustainable Forestry 27 189-223
45. Wade A A and Theobald D M 2010 Residential development encroachment on US protected areas: contributed paper Conserv. Biol. 24 151-61
46. Shafer C L 1999 US National Park buffer zones: historical, scientific, social, and legal aspects Environ. Manag. 23 49-73 (Pubitemid 28536936)
47. Davis C R and Hansen A J 2011 Trajectories in land use change around US National Parks and challenges and opportunities for management Ecol. Appl. 21 3299-316
48. Das A et al 2006 Prioritisation of conservation areas in the Western Ghats, India Biol. Conserv. 133 16-31 (Pubitemid 44389743)
49. Médail F and Quézel P 1997 Hot-spots analysis for conservation of plant biodiversity in the Mediterranean Basin Ann. Missouri Bot. Garden 84 112-27 (Pubitemid 28167094)
50. Murray-Smith C et al 2009 Plant diversity hotspots in the Atlantic coastal forests of Brazil Conserv. Biol. 23 151-63
51. MediverCities 2012 MediverCities (available from: www.cbd.int/ authorities/medivercities.shtml)
52. Chettri N, Sharma E and Zomer R 2012 Changing paradigm and post 2010 targets: challenges and opportunities for biodiversity conservation in the Hindu Kush Himalayas Trop. Ecol. 53 245-59
53. Piquer-Rodríguez M, Kuemmerle T, Alcaraz-Segura D, Zurita-Milla R and Cabello J 2012 Future land use effects on the connectivity of protected area networks in southeastern Spain J. Nature Conserv. 20 326-36
54. Santini M and Valentini R 2011 Predicting hot-spots of land use changes in Italy by ensemble forecasting Reg. Environ. Change 11 483-502
55. Liu L 2010 China's population trends and their implications for fertility policy Asian Popul. Studies 6 289-305
56. Dasha R K and Sahoo P 2010 Economic growth in India: the role of physical and social infrastructure J. Econ. Policy Reform 13 373-85
57. Gërxhani K 2004 The informal sector in developed and less developed countries: a literature survey Public Choice 120 267-300 (Pubitemid 39363869)
58. Sato T 2012 Economic relations between India and Japan Eurasian Geogr. Econ. 53 457-78
59. Puppim de Oliveira J A et al 2011 Cities and biodiversity: perspectives and governance challenges for implementing the convention on biological diversity (CBD) at the city level Biol. Conserv. 144 1302-13
60. Niemelä J 1999 Ecology and urban planning Biodivers. Conserv. 8 119-31 (Pubitemid 29291701)
61. Seitzinger S P et al 2012 Planetary stewardship in an urbanizing world: beyond city limits Ambio 41 787-94