Revisiting the Indian summer monsoon-ENSO links in the IPCC AR4 projections: A cautionary outlook

Global and Planetary Change

Volumn 104, Issue , 2013, Pages 51-60

  Roxy, Mathew ^a   Patil, Nitin ^a   Aparna, K ^a   Ashok, Karumuri ^a  

^a INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TROPICAL METEOROLOGY   (India)

Author keywords

Climate change; ENSO Indian monsoon teleconnections; ENSO Modoki

Indexed keywords

ENSO MODOKI; INDIAN SUMMER MONSOON; INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGES; LINEAR ANALYSIS; POTENTIAL IMPACTS; SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARIOS; TELECONNECTIONS; TWENTIETH CENTURY;

ATMOSPHERIC THERMODYNAMICS; CLIMATE CHANGE; GLOBAL WARMING; GREENHOUSE GASES;

COMPUTER SIMULATION;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE; TELECONNECTION; TWENTIETH CENTURY;

INDIA;

EID: 84875630120     PISSN: 09218181     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.02.003     Document Type: Article

References (24)

1. AchutaRao K., Sperber K.R. ENSO simulation in coupled ocean-atmosphere models: are the current models better?. Climate Dynamics 2006, 27(1):1-15.
2. Annamalai H., Hamilton K., Sperber K.R. The South Asian summer monsoon and its relationship with ENSO in the IPCC AR4 simulations. Journal of Climate 2007, 20(6):1071-1092.
3. Ashok K., Yamagata T. The El Nino with a difference?. Nature 2009, 461:481-484. 10.1038/461481a.
4. Ashok K., Behera S.K., Rao S.A., Weng H.Y., Yamagata T. El Nino Modoki and its possible teleconnection. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans 2007, 112(C11).
5. Ashok K., Sabin T.P., Swapna P., Murtugudde R.G. Is a global warming signature emerging in the tropical Pacific?. Geophysical Research Letters 2012, 39. L02701. http://dx.doi.org10.1029/2011GL050232.
6. Bretherton C.S., Smith C., Wallace J.M. An intercomparison of methods for finding coupled patterns in climate data. Journal of Climate 1992, 5:541-560.
7. Collins W., et al. Radiative forcing by well-mixed greenhouse gases: estimates from climate models in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Journal of Geophysical Research 2006, 111(D14317):1-2.
8. Kao H.Y., Yu J.Y. Contrasting eastern-Pacific and central-Pacific types of ENSO. Journal of Climate 2009, 22(3):615-632.
9. Kripalani R., Oh J., Kulkarni A., Sabade S., Chaudhari H. South Asian summer monsoon precipitation variability: coupled climate model simulations and projections under IPCC AR4. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 2007, 90(3):133-159.
10. Kug J.S., Jin F.F., An S.I. Two types of El Niño events: cold tongue El Niño and warm pool El Niño 2010.
11. Kumar K.K., Rajagopalan B., Hoerling M., Bates G., Cane M. Unraveling the mystery of Indian monsoon failure during El Nino. Science 2006, 314(5796):115.
12. Levitus S., Antonov J., Boyer T. Warming of the world ocean, 1955-2003. Geophysical Research Letters 2005, 32(2).
13. McPhaden M.J., et al. The response of the equatorial Pacific Ocean to a westerly wind burst in May 1986. Journal of Geophysical Research 1988, 93(C9):10589-10,603.
14. Meehl G.A., et al. The WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2007, 88:1383-1394.
15. Rajeevan M., Bhate J., Kale J., Lal B. High resolution daily gridded rainfall data for the Indian region: analysis of break and active monsoon spells. Current Science 2006, 91(3):296-306.
16. Rasmusson E.M., Carpenter T.H. Variations in tropical sea surface temperature and surface wind fields associated with the Southern Oscillation/El Niño. Monthly Weather Review 1982, 110(5):354-384.
17. Rasmusson E.M., Carpenter T.H. Relationship between eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures and rainfall over India and Sri Lanka. Monthly Weather Review 1983, 111(3).
18. Rayner N., et al. Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. Journal of Geophysical Research 2003, 108(D14):4407.
19. Ropelewski C.F., Halpert M.S. Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Monthly Weather Review 1987, 115(8):1606-1626.
20. Roxy M., Gualdi S., Drbohlav H.-K., Navarra A. Seasonality in the relationship between El Nino and Indian Ocean dipole. Climate Dynamics 2011, 37(1):221-236.
21. Roxy, M., Tanimoto, Y., Preethi, B., Pascal, T., Krishnan, R., in press. Intraseasonal SST-precipitation relationship and its spatial variability over the tropical summer monsoon region. Climate Dynamics. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1547-1.
22. Sabade S., Kulkarni A., Kripalani R. Projected changes in South Asian summer monsoon by multi-model global warming experiments. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 2011, 1-23.
23. Shukla J. Interannual variability of monsoons. Monsoons 1987.
24. Yeh S.W., et al. El Niño in a changing climate. Nature 2009, 461(7263):511-514.