메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 50, Issue 2, 2013, Pages 673-697

Modeling and Forecasting Health Expectancy: Theoretical Framework and Application

Author keywords

Health expectancy; Life expectancy; Longevity; Mortality

Indexed keywords


EID: 84875407624     PISSN: 00703370     EISSN: 15337790     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s13524-012-0156-2     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (24)

References (54)
  • 1
    • 34248671685 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Health-based population forecasting: Effects of smoking on mortality and fertility
    • Akushevich, I., Kravchenko, J. S., & Manton, K. G. (2007). Health-based population forecasting: Effects of smoking on mortality and fertility. Risk Analysis, 27, 467-482.
    • (2007) Risk Analysis , vol.27 , pp. 467-482
    • Akushevich, I.1    Kravchenko, J.S.2    Manton, K.G.3
  • 2
    • 0034007433 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An indirect estimate of the incidence of non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus
    • Barendregt, J. J., Baan, C. A., & Bonneux, L. (2000). An indirect estimate of the incidence of non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus. Epidemiology, 11, 274-279.
    • (2000) Epidemiology , vol.11 , pp. 274-279
    • Barendregt, J.J.1    Baan, C.A.2    Bonneux, L.3
  • 5
    • 84875395338 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Trends in gezonde levensverwachting
    • Den Haag, The Netherlands: Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek
    • Bruggink, J. W., Garssen, J., Lodder, B., & Kardal, M. (2009). Trends in gezonde levensverwachting [Trends in health expectancy]. In Bevolkingstrend. Den Haag, The Netherlands: Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek.
    • (2009) In Bevolkingstrend
    • Bruggink, J.W.1    Garssen, J.2    Lodder, B.3    Kardal, M.4
  • 6
    • 33845430480 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A two-factor model for stochastic mortality with parameter uncertainty: Theory and calibration
    • Cairns, A. J., Blake, D. P., & Dowd, K. (2006). A two-factor model for stochastic mortality with parameter uncertainty: Theory and calibration. Journal of Risk & Insurance, 73, 687-718.
    • (2006) Journal of Risk & Insurance , vol.73 , pp. 687-718
    • Cairns, A.J.1    Blake, D.P.2    Dowd, K.3
  • 8
    • 84924293462 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • CBS, Den Haag/Heerlen, The Netherlands: Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek (CBS)
    • CBS. (2005). Permanent Onderzoek Leefsituatie - Reference. Den Haag/Heerlen, The Netherlands: Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek (CBS).
    • (2005) Permanent Onderzoek Leefsituatie - Reference
  • 9
    • 69549130679 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Change in disability-free life expectancy for Americans 70 years old and older
    • Crimmins, E. M., Hayward, M. D., Hagedorn, A. H., Saito, Y., & Brouard, N. (2009). Change in disability-free life expectancy for Americans 70 years old and older. Demography, 46, 627-646.
    • (2009) Demography , vol.46 , pp. 627-646
    • Crimmins, E.M.1    Hayward, M.D.2    Hagedorn, A.H.3    Saito, Y.4    Brouard, N.5
  • 10
    • 0024843189 scopus 로고
    • Changes in life expectancy and disability-free life expectancy in the United States
    • Crimmins, E. M., Saito, Y., & Ingegneri, D. (1989). Changes in life expectancy and disability-free life expectancy in the United States. Population and Development Review, 15, 235-267.
    • (1989) Population and Development Review , vol.15 , pp. 235-267
    • Crimmins, E.M.1    Saito, Y.2    Ingegneri, D.3
  • 11
    • 0031404347 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Trends in disability-free life expectancy in the United States, 1970-90
    • Crimmins, E. M., Saito, Y., & Ingegneri, D. (1997). Trends in disability-free life expectancy in the United States, 1970-90. Population and Development Review, 23, 555-572.
    • (1997) Population and Development Review , vol.23 , pp. 555-572
    • Crimmins, E.M.1    Saito, Y.2    Ingegneri, D.3
  • 13
    • 29244450658 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Mortality, income, and income inequality over time in Britain and the United States
    • D. A. Wise (Ed.), Chicago, IL: The University of Chicago Press
    • Deaton, A., & Paxson, C. (2004). Mortality, income, and income inequality over time in Britain and the United States. In D. A. Wise (Ed.), Perspectives on the economics of aging (pp. 247-285). Chicago, IL: The University of Chicago Press.
    • (2004) Perspectives on the Economics of Aging , pp. 247-285
    • Deaton, A.1    Paxson, C.2
  • 14
    • 77950138039 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Facing up to uncertain life expectancy: The longevity fan charts
    • Dowd, K., Blake, D. P., & Cairns, A. J. G. (2010). Facing up to uncertain life expectancy: The longevity fan charts. Demography, 47, 67-78.
    • (2010) Demography , vol.47 , pp. 67-78
    • Dowd, K.1    Blake, D.P.2    Cairns, A.J.G.3
  • 15
    • 84875394445 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Asbak leger, schatkist voller
    • Voorburg/Heerlen, The Netherlands: Statistics Netherlands
    • Draper, H. (2005). Asbak leger, schatkist voller [Ashtray emptier, treasury house fuller]. In CBS Webmagazine. Voorburg/Heerlen, The Netherlands: Statistics Netherlands.
    • (2005) In CBS Webmagazine
    • Draper, H.1
  • 16
    • 0018876664 scopus 로고
    • Aging, natural death, and the compression of morbidity
    • Fries, J. F. (1980). Aging, natural death, and the compression of morbidity. New England Journal of Medicine, 303, 130-135.
    • (1980) New England Journal of Medicine , vol.303 , pp. 130-135
    • Fries, J.F.1
  • 19
    • 0027842885 scopus 로고
    • Event-history analysis for left-truncated data
    • Guo, G. (1993). Event-history analysis for left-truncated data. Sociological Methodology, 23, 217-243.
    • (1993) Sociological Methodology , vol.23 , pp. 217-243
    • Guo, G.1
  • 20
    • 1842433746 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Recovery from disability among community-dwelling older persons
    • Hardy, S. E., & Gill, T. M. (2004). Recovery from disability among community-dwelling older persons. Journal of the American Medical Association, 291, 1596-1602.
    • (2004) Journal of the American Medical Association , vol.291 , pp. 1596-1602
    • Hardy, S.E.1    Gill, T.M.2
  • 21
    • 33750436765 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Robust forecasting of mortality and fertility rates: A functional data approach
    • Hyndman, R. J., & Shahid Ullah, M. (2007). Robust forecasting of mortality and fertility rates: A functional data approach. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 51, 4942-4956.
    • (2007) Computational Statistics & Data Analysis , vol.51 , pp. 4942-4956
    • Hyndman, R.J.1    Shahid Ullah, M.2
  • 23
    • 0031014135 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Time-to-event analysis of longitudinal follow-up of a survey: Choice of the time-scale
    • Korn, E. L., Graubard, B. I., & Midthune, D. (1997). Time-to-event analysis of longitudinal follow-up of a survey: Choice of the time-scale. American Journal of Epidemiology, 145, 72-80.
    • (1997) American Journal of Epidemiology , vol.145 , pp. 72-80
    • Korn, E.L.1    Graubard, B.I.2    Midthune, D.3
  • 25
    • 26044462015 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Coherent mortality forecasts for a group of populations: An extension of the Lee-Carter method
    • Li, N., & Lee, R. (2005). Coherent mortality forecasts for a group of populations: An extension of the Lee-Carter method. Demography, 42, 575-594.
    • (2005) Demography , vol.42 , pp. 575-594
    • Li, N.1    Lee, R.2
  • 27
    • 0034866789 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The world's changing human capital stock: Multi-state population projections by educational attainment
    • Lutz, W., & Goujon, A. (2001). The world's changing human capital stock: Multi-state population projections by educational attainment. Population and Development Review, 27, 323-339.
    • (2001) Population and Development Review , vol.27 , pp. 323-339
    • Lutz, W.1    Goujon, A.2
  • 28
    • 0030619342 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Doubling of world population unlikely
    • Lutz, W., Sanderson, W., & Scherbov, S. (1997). Doubling of world population unlikely. Nature, 387, 803-805.
    • (1997) Nature , vol.387 , pp. 803-805
    • Lutz, W.1    Sanderson, W.2    Scherbov, S.3
  • 30
    • 0020109436 scopus 로고
    • Changing concepts of morbidity and mortality in the elderly population
    • Manton, K. G. (1982). Changing concepts of morbidity and mortality in the elderly population. Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly: Health and Society, 60, 183-244.
    • (1982) Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly: Health and Society , vol.60 , pp. 183-244
    • Manton, K.G.1
  • 31
    • 33645297145 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Long-term trends in life expectancy and active life expectancy in the United States
    • Manton, K. G., Gu, X., & Lamb, V. L. (2006). Long-term trends in life expectancy and active life expectancy in the United States. Population and Development Review, 32, 81-105.
    • (2006) Population and Development Review , vol.32 , pp. 81-105
    • Manton, K.G.1    Gu, X.2    Lamb, V.L.3
  • 32
    • 34248391378 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Medicare cost effects of recent U.S. disability trends in the elderly
    • Manton, K. G., Lamb, V. L., & Gu, X.-L. (2007). Medicare cost effects of recent U. S. disability trends in the elderly. Journal of Aging and Health, 19, 359-381.
    • (2007) Journal of Aging and Health , vol.19 , pp. 359-381
    • Manton, K.G.1    Lamb, V.L.2    Gu, X.-L.3
  • 34
    • 0026951142 scopus 로고
    • Projecting the future size and health status of the US elderly population
    • Manton, K. G., Stallard, E., & Singer, B. (1992). Projecting the future size and health status of the US elderly population. International Journal of Forecasting, 8, 433-458.
    • (1992) International Journal of Forecasting , vol.8 , pp. 433-458
    • Manton, K.G.1    Stallard, E.2    Singer, B.3
  • 35
    • 0019840789 scopus 로고
    • Disability assessment in population surveys: Results of the O. E. C. D. common development effort
    • McWhinnie, J. R. (1981). Disability assessment in population surveys: Results of the O. E. C. D. common development effort. Revue d'Epidémioogie et de Santé Publique, 29, 413-419.
    • (1981) Revue d'Epidémioogie et de Santé Publique , vol.29 , pp. 413-419
    • McWhinnie, J.R.1
  • 37
    • 3042789430 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Compression of morbidity
    • In J.-M. Robine, C. Jagger, C. D. Mathers, E. M. Crimmins, & R. M. Suzman (Eds.), Chichester, UK: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
    • Nusselder, W. J. (2003). Compression of morbidity. In J.-M. Robine, C. Jagger, C. D. Mathers, E. M. Crimmins, & R. M. Suzman (Eds.), Determining health expectancies. Chichester, UK: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
    • (2003) Determining health expectancies
    • Nusselder, W.J.1
  • 41
    • 0036631858 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Physical disability in The Netherlands: Prevalence, risk groups and time trends
    • Picavet, H. S., & Hoeymans, N. (2002). Physical disability in The Netherlands: Prevalence, risk groups and time trends. Public Health, 116, 231-237.
    • (2002) Public Health , vol.116 , pp. 231-237
    • Picavet, H.S.1    Hoeymans, N.2
  • 42
    • 0242570435 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Possibilities for anonymous follow-up studies of patients in Dutch national medical registrations using the Municipal Population Register: A pilot study
    • Reitsma, J. B., Kardaun, J. W., Gevers, E., de Bruin, A., van der Wal, J., & Bonsel, G. J. (2003). Possibilities for anonymous follow-up studies of patients in Dutch national medical registrations using the Municipal Population Register: A pilot study. Nederlands Tijdschrift voor geneeskunde, 147, 2286-2290.
    • (2003) Nederlands Tijdschrift Voor Geneeskunde , vol.147 , pp. 2286-2290
    • Reitsma, J.B.1    Kardaun, J.W.2    Gevers, E.3    de Bruin, A.4    van der Wal, J.5    Bonsel, G.J.6
  • 43
    • 10744223167 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Creating a coherent set of indicators to monitor health across Europe: The Euro-REVES 2 project
    • Robine, J. M., & Jagger, C. (2003). Creating a coherent set of indicators to monitor health across Europe: The Euro-REVES 2 project. European Journal of Public Health, 13(Suppl. 3), 6-14.
    • (2003) European Journal of Public Health , vol.13 , Issue.SUPPL. 3 , pp. 6-14
    • Robine, J.M.1    Jagger, C.2
  • 45
    • 0025002051 scopus 로고
    • Longer life but worse health? Measurement and dynamics
    • Rogers, A., Rogers, R. G., & Belanger, A. (1990). Longer life but worse health? Measurement and dynamics. Gerontologist, 30, 640-649.
    • (1990) Gerontologist , vol.30 , pp. 640-649
    • Rogers, A.1    Rogers, R.G.2    Belanger, A.3
  • 46
    • 0024957880 scopus 로고
    • Active life among the elderly in the United States: Multistate life-table estimates and population projections
    • Rogers, R. G., Rogers, A., & Belanger, A. (1989). Active life among the elderly in the United States: Multistate life-table estimates and population projections. The Milbank Quarterly, 67, 370-411.
    • (1989) The Milbank Quarterly , vol.67 , pp. 370-411
    • Rogers, R.G.1    Rogers, A.2    Belanger, A.3
  • 47
    • 0032431118 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The effects of health changes on projections of health service needs for the elderly population of the United States
    • Singer, B. H., & Manton, K. G. (1998). The effects of health changes on projections of health service needs for the elderly population of the United States. Procedings of National Academy of Sciences, 95, 15618-15622.
    • (1998) Procedings of National Academy of Sciences , vol.95 , pp. 15618-15622
    • Singer, B.H.1    Manton, K.G.2
  • 49
    • 0015040543 scopus 로고
    • A single index of mortality and morbidity
    • Sullivan, D. F. (1971). A single index of mortality and morbidity. HSMHA Health Reports, 86, 347-354.
    • (1971) HSMHA Health Reports , vol.86 , pp. 347-354
    • Sullivan, D.F.1
  • 50
    • 33745965494 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A review of epidemiological approaches to forecasting mortality and morbidity
    • In E. Tabeau, A. Berg Jeths, & C. Heathcote (Eds.), Amsterdam, The Netherlands: Springer
    • Tabeau, E., Berg Jeths, A., Hoogenveen, R., & Hollander, G. (2002). A review of epidemiological approaches to forecasting mortality and morbidity. In E. Tabeau, A. Berg Jeths, & C. Heathcote (Eds.), in Forecasting mortality in developed countries (pp. 33-56). Amsterdam, The Netherlands: Springer.
    • (2002) In Forecasting mortality in developed countries , pp. 33-56
    • Tabeau, E.1    Berg Jeths, A.2    Hoogenveen, R.3    Hollander, G.4
  • 53
    • 33745968253 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Biographic forecasting: Bridging the micro-macro gap in population forecasting
    • Willekens, F. L. (2005). Biographic forecasting: Bridging the micro-macro gap in population forecasting. New Zealand Population Review, 31, 77-124.
    • (2005) New Zealand Population Review , vol.31 , pp. 77-124
    • Willekens, F.L.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.