Predicting Climate Change Impacts on the Amount and Duration of Autumn Colors in a New England Forest

PLoS ONE

Volumn 8, Issue 3, 2013, Pages

  Archetti, Marco ^a,d   Richardson, Andrew D ^a   O'Keefe, John ^b   Delpierre, Nicolas ^c  

^a HARVARD UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b HARVARD UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITÉ PARIS SUD   (France)

^d UNIVERSITY OF EAST ANGLIA   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; AUTUMN; CLIMATE CHANGE; COLD; COLOR; ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT; ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE; FOREST; PHENOLOGY; PHOTOPERIODICITY; PRECIPITATION; SPECIES DIFFERENCE; TIME; UNITED STATES;

CLIMATE CHANGE; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; NEW ENGLAND; PIGMENTATION; SEASONS; TIME FACTORS; TREES;

EID: 84874777287     PISSN: None     EISSN: 19326203     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0057373     Document Type: Article

References (42)

1. Grabherr G, Gottfried M, Pauli H, (1994) Climate effects on mountain plants. Nature 369: 448.
2. Menzel A, Fabian P, (1999) Growing season extended in Europe. Nature 397: 659-659.
3. Parmesan C, (1999) Poleward shifts in geographical ranges of butterfly species associated with regional warming. Nature 399: 579-583.
4. Bradley NL, Leopold AC, Ross J, Huffaker W, (1999) Phenological changes reflect climate change in Wisconsin. PNAS 96: 9701-9704.
5. Parmesan C, Yohe G, (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421: 37-42.
6. Root TL, Price JT, Hall KR, Schneider SH, Rosenzweig C, et al. (2003) Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature 421: 57-60.
7. Edwards M, Richardson AJ, (2004) Impact of climate on marine pelagic phenology and trophic mismatch. Nature 430: 881-884.
8. Fitter AH, Fitter RAR, Harris ITB, Williamson MH, (1995) Relationships between first flowering date and temperature in the flora of a locality in central England. Functional Ecology 9: 55-60.
9. Sparks TH, Jeffree EP, Jeffree CE, (2000) An examination of the relationship between flowering times and temperature at the national scale using long-term phenological records from the UK. International Journal of Biometeorology 44: 82-87.
10. Fitter AH, Fitter RAR, (2002) Rapid changes in flowering time in British plants. Science 296: 1689-1691.
11. Primack D, Imbres C, Primack RB, Miller-Rushing AJ, Del Tredici P, (2004) Herbarium specimens demonstrate earlier flowering times in response to warming in Boston. Am. J. Botany 91: 1260-1264.
12. Schwartz MD, Ahas R, Aasa A, (2006) Onset of spring starting earlier across the Northern Hemisphere. Global Change Biology 12: 343-351.
13. Polgar CA, Primack RB, (2011) Leaf-out phenology of temperate woody plants: from trees to ecosystems. New Phytologist 191: 926-941.
14. Archetti M, (2009) Phylogenetic analysis reveals a scattered distribution of autumn colors. Annals of Botany 103: 703-713.
15. Archetti M, Döring TF, Hagen SB, Hughes NM, Leather SR, et al. (2009) Unravelling the evolution of autumn colors: an interdisciplinary approach. Trends Ecol. Evol. 24: 166-173.
16. Estrella N, Menzel A, (2006) Responses of leaf coloring in four deciduous tree species to climate and weather in Germany. Climate Research 32: 253-267.
17. Kozlowski TT, Pallardy SG (1997) Physiology of Woody Plants. Academic Press, NY.
18. Richardson AD, Bailey AS, Denny EG, Martin CW, O'Keefe J, (2006) Phenology of a northern hardwood forest canopy. Global Change Biology 12: 1174-1178.
19. Richardson AD, Black TA, Ciais P, Delbart N, Friedl MA, et al. (2010) Influence of spring and autumn phenological transitions on forest ecosystem productivity. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, Series B 365: 3227-3246.
20. Piao SL, Ciais P, Friedlingstein P, Peylin P, Reichstein M, et al. (2008) Net carbon dioxide losses of northern ecosystems in response to autumn warming. Nature 451: 49-52.
21. Wu CY, Gonsamoa A, Chena JM, Kurzb WA, Price DT, et al. (2012) Interannual and spatial impacts of phenological transitions, growing season length, and spring and autumn temperatures on carbon sequestration: A North America flux data synthesis. Global and Planetary Change 92-93: 179-190.
22. Dragoni D, Schmid HP, Wayson CA, Potter H, Grimmond CSB, et al. (2011) Evidence of increased net ecosystem productivity associated with a longer vegetated season in a deciduous forest in south-central Indiana, USA. Global Change Biology 17: 886-897.
23. Fridley JD, (2012) Extended leaf phenology and the autumn niche in deciduous forest invasions. Nature 485: 359-362.
24. Jolly WM, Nemani R, Running SW, (2004) Enhancement of understory productivity by asynchronous phenology with overstory competitors in a temperate deciduous forest. Tree Physiology 24: 1069-1071.
25. Frumhoff PC, McCarthy JJ, Melillo JM, Moser SC, Wuebbles DJ (2007). Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast: Science, Impacts, and Solutions. Synthesis report of the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (NECIA). Cambridge, MA: Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS).
26. Lebourgeois F, Pierrat JC, Perez V, Piedallu C, Cecchini S, et al. (2010) Simulating phenological shifts in French temperate forests under two climatic change scenarios and four driving global circulation models. International Journal of Biometeorology 54: 563-581.
27. Delpierre N, Dufrêne E, Soudani K, Ulrich E, Cecchini S, et al. (2009) Modeling interannual and spatial variability of leaf senescence for three deciduous tree species in France. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 149: 938-948.
28. Richardson AD, O'Keefe J (2009). Phenological differences between understory and overstory: A case study using the long-term Harvard Forest records. pp. 87-117 in: A. Noormets, ed.Phenology of Ecosystem Processes.Springer Science + Business, New York.
29. Press WH, Teukolsky SA, Vetterling WT, Flannery BP (1992). Numerical recipes in FORTRAN 77.Cambridge University Press.
30. Hagen SC, Hagen SC, Braswell BH, Richardson AD, Hollinger DY, (2006) Statistical uncertainty of eddy-flux based estimates of gross ecosystem carbon exchange at Howland Forest, Maine. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 111: 1-12.
31. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Friedman J (2001) The Elements of Statistical Learning: Data Mining, Inference, and Prediction. Springer, NewYork.
32. Mayer DG, Butler DG, (1993) Statistical Validation. Ecological Modelling 68: 21-32.
33. Burnham KP, Anderson DR (2002) Model Selection and Multimodel Inference: A Practical Information-Theoretical Approach. 2d ed. New York: Springer-Verlag.
34. Hayhoe K, Wake CP, Huntington TG, Luo L, Schwartz MD, et al. (2006) Past and future changes in climate and hydrological indicators in the US Northeast. Clim. Dyn. 28: 381-407.
35. Delworth TL, Broccoli AJ, Rosati A, Stouffer RJ, Balaji V, et al. (2006) GFDL's CM2 global coupled climate models-Part 1-formulation and simulation characteristics. J.Clim. 19: 643-674.
36. Nakićenović N, Swart R (2000) IPCC special report on emissions scenarios. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY.
37. Migliavacca M, Sonnentag O, Keenan TF, Cescatti A, O'Keefe J (2013) On the uncertainty of phenological responses to climate change and its implication for terrestrial biosphere models. Biogeosciences in press, doi:10.5194/bgd-9-879-2012.
38. Vitasse Y, François C, Delpierre N, Dufrêne E, Kremer A, et al. (2011) Assessing the effects of climate change on the phenology of European temperate trees. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 151: 969-980.
39. Peñuelas J, Filella I, Comas P, (2002) Changed plant and animal life cycles from 1952 to 2000 in the Mediterranean region. Global Change Biology 8: 531-544.
40. Matsumoto K, Ohta T, Irasawa M, Nakamura T, (2003) Climate change and extension of the Ginkgo biloba L. growing season in Japan. Global Change Biology 9: 1634-1642.
41. Sparks TH, Gorska-Zajaczkowska M, Wojtowicz W, Tryjanowski P, (2011) Phenological changes and reduced seasonal synchrony in western Poland. International Journal of Biometeorology 55: 447-453.
42. Forrest J, Miller-Rushing AJ, (2010) Toward a synthetic understanding of the role of phenology in ecology and evolution. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, Series B 365: 3101-3112.