Climate signals on the regional scale derived with a statistical method: Relevance of the driving model's resolution

Atmosphere

Volumn 2, Issue 2, 2011, Pages 129-145

  Kreienkamp, Frank ^a   Baumgart, Sonja ^a   Spekat, Arne ^a   Enke, Wolfgang ^a  

^a Climate and Environment Consulting Potsdam GmbH   (Germany)

Author keywords

Climate modelling; Downscaling; Empirical statistical downscaling; Multi approach ensemble; Regional climate change

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; ELECTROSTATIC DEVICES; ELECTROSTATIC DISCHARGE; STATISTICS;

AREA OF INTEREST; CLIMATE SIGNALS; DOWN-SCALING; GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL; MULTI-APPROACH ENSEMBLE; REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGES; REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS; REGIONAL SCALE; SCALE DEPENDENCY; STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING;

CLIMATE MODELS;

AIR TEMPERATURE; ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; CLIMATE PREDICTION; DOWNSCALING; EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; GEOSTATISTICS; GLOBAL CLIMATE; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); REGIONAL CLIMATE;

EID: 84874541127     PISSN: None     EISSN: 20734433     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3390/atmos2020129     Document Type: Article

References (39)

1. Kerr, R. Climate change-Three degrees of consensus. Science 2004, 305, 932-934.
2. IPCC. Climate Change. The IPCC Scientific Assessment. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK, 1990.
3. IPCC. Climate Change 1995. The Science of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK, 1996.
4. IPCC. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis; Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK, 2001.
5. IPCC. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; Number ISBN: 978 0521 70596-7; Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK and New York, USA, 2007.
6. Grotch, S.; MacCracken, M. The use of general circulation models to predict regional climatic change. J. Climate 1991, 4, 286-303.
7. IPCC. The Regional Impacts of Climate Change-An Assessment of Vulnerability; Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK, 1998.
8. Dickinson, R.; Enrico, R.; Giorgi, F.; Bates, G. A regional climate model for the western U.S. Climatic Change 1989, 15, 383-422.
9. Giorgi, F. Simulation of regional climate using a limited area model nested in a general circulation model. J. Climate 1990, 3, 941-963.
10. Giorgi, F.; Mearns, L. Approaches to the simulations of regional climate change: A review. Rev. Geophys. Space Phys. 1991, 29, 191-216.
11. Wilby, R.; Wigley, T. Downscaling general circulation model output: A review of methods and limitations. Progr. Phys. Geogr. 1997, 21, 530-548.
12. Huth, R. Statistical downscaling in central Europe: Evaluation of methods and potential predictors. Clim. Res. 1999, 13, 91-101.
13. Cess, R.; Potter, G.; Blanchet, J.; Boer, G.; Ghan, S.; Kiehl, J.; Le Treut, H.; Liang, X.; Mitchell, J.; Morcrette, J.; et al. Interpretation of cloud-climate feedback as produced by 14 atmospheric general circulation models. Science 1989, 245, 513-516.
14. Meehl, G.; Boer, G.; Covey, C.; M. Latif.; Stouffer, R. The coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP). Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 2000, 81, 313-318.
15. Christensen, J.H. Prediction of Regional Scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate Change Risks and Effects, Final Report; (PRUDENCE) Technical Report; Danish Meteorological Institut (DMI): Copenhagen, Denmark, 2005.
16. Christensen, J.; Carter, T.; Rummukainen, M.; Amanatidis, G. Evaluating the performance and utility of regional climate models: The PRUDENCE project. Climatic Change 2007, 81, 1-6.
17. Hanson, C.; Palutikof, J.; Livermore, M.; Barring, L.; Bindi, M.; Corte-Real, J.; Durao, R.; Giannakopoulos, C.; Good, P.; Holt, T.; et al. Modelling the impact of climate extremes: An overview of the MICE project. Climatic Change 2007, 81, 163-177.
18. Goodess, C. STARDEX. Downscaling Climate Extremes, Final Report; Technical Report; STARDEX Consortium: Norwich, UK, 2009.
19. Van der Linden, P.; Mitchell, J. ENSEMBLES: Climate Change and Its Impacts: Summary of Research and Results from the ENSEMBLES Project; Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK, 2009.
20. Kreienkamp, F.; Spekat, A.; Enke, W. Sensitivity studies with a statistical downscaling method-the role of the driving large scale model. Meteorol. Z. 2009, 18, 597-606.
21. Kalnay, E.; Kanamitsu, M.; Kistler, R.; Collins, W.; Deaven, D.; Gandin, L.; Iredell, M.; Saha, S.; Whitea, G.; Woolen, J.; et al. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 1996, 77, 437-471.
22. Uppala, S.; Kållberg, P.; Simmons, A.; Andrae, U.; da Costa Bechtold, V.; Fiorino, M.; Gibson, J.; Haseler, J.; Hernandez, A.; Kelly, G.; et al. The ERA-40 re-analysis. Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. 2005, 131, 2961-3012.
23. Roeckner, E.; Baeuml, G.; Bonaventura, L.; Brokopf, R.; Esch, M.; Giorgetta, M.; Hagemann, S.; Kirchner, I.; Kornblueh, L.; Manzini, E.; et al. The Atmospheric General Circulation Model ECHAM5-Part 1: Model Description; Max Planck Institut for Meteorology: Hamburg, Germany, November 2003.
24. Böhm, U.; Kücken, M.; Ahrens, W.; Block, A.; Hauffe, D.; Keuler, D.; Rockel, B.; Will, A. CLM-The Climate Version of LM: Brief description and long-term applications. COSMO Newslett. 2006, 6, 225-235
25. Jacob, D.; Podzun, R. Sensitivity studies with the regional climate model REMO. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 1997, 63, 119-129.
26. Jacob, D.; Göttel, H.; Kotlarski, S.; Lorenz, P.; Sieck, K. Klimaauswirkungen und Anpassung in Deutschland-Phase 1: Erstellung regionaler Klimaszenarien für Deutschland; Technical Report; Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie (MPI-M): Hamburg, Germany, 2008.
27. Lenderink, G.; van den Hurk, B.; van Meijgaard, E.; van Ulden, A.; Cuijpers, J. Simulation of Present-Day Climate in RACMO2: First Results and Model Developments; Technical Report; Koninklijk Nederlaidse Meteolognsch Instituut: Tilburg, The Netherlands, 2003.
28. Enke, W.; Deutschländer, T.; Schneider, F.; Küchler, W. Results of five regional climate studies applying a weather patter based downscaling method to ECHAM4 climate simulations. Meteorol. Z. 2005, 14, 247-257.
29. Spekat, A.; Kreienkamp, F.; Enke, W. An impact-oriented classification method for atmospheric patterns. Phys. Chem. Earth 2010, 35, 352-359.
30. Schiermeier, Q. High-resolution climate modelling: Assessment, added value and applications. Nature 2004, 428, 593.
31. Yarnal, B. Synoptic Climatology in Environmental Analysis; Belhaven Press: London, UK, 1993.
32. Enke, W.; Schneider, F.; Deutschländer, T. A novel scheme to derive optimized circulation pattern classifications for downscaling and forecast purposes. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 2005, 82, 51-63.
33. Timbal, B.; Hope, P.; Charles, S. Evaluating the consistency between statistically downscaled and global dynamical model climate change projections. J. Climate 2008, 21, 6052-6059.
34. Using temperature again as an illustration, the patterns are arranged in ascending order from those that linked to low surface temperature (the "cold" patterns) to those that are linked to high temperature (the "warm" patterns). "Dry" and "wet" patterns would be the analogues in the humidity regime.
35. Kreienkamp, F.; Spekat, A.; Enke, W. TransWeather Patterns-an extended outlook for the future climate. EMS Annual Meeting Abstracts 2010, 7, 2010-2453.
36. Kreienkamp, F.; Spekat, A.; Enke, W. Weiterentwicklung von WETTREG bezüglich neuartiger Wetterlagen; Technical Report (in German); Available online: http://klimawandel.hlug.de/fileadmin/dokumente/kilma/inklim a/TWL Laender.pdf (accessed on 20 May 2011).
37. Kreienkamp, F.; Spekat, A.; Enke, W. Ergebnisse eines regionalen Szenarienlaufs für Deutschland mit dem statistischen Modell WETTREG2010; Technical Report; Climate and Environment Consulting Potsdam GmbH on a contract of the Federal Environment Agency (UBA): Potsdam, Dessau, Germany, 2010.
38. Christensen, J.; Boberg, F.; Christensen, O.; Lucas-Picher, P. On the need for bias correction of regional climate change projections of temperature and precipitation. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2008, 35, 1-6.
39. Maraun, D.; Wetterhall, F.; Ireson, A.; Chandler, R.; Kendon, E.; Widmann, M.; Brienen, S.; Rust, H.; Sauter, T.; Themeßl, M.; et al. Precipitation downscaling under climate change. Recent developments to bridge the gap between dynamical models and the end user. Rev. Geophys. 2010, 48, 1-34.