A recent tipping point in the Arctic sea-ice cover: Abrupt and persistent increase in the seasonal cycle since 2007

Cryosphere

Volumn 7, Issue 1, 2013, Pages 275-286

  Livina, V N ^a,b   Lenton, T M ^c  

^a NATIONAL PHYSICAL LABORATORY   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF EAST ANGLIA   (United Kingdom)

^c UNIVERSITY OF EXETER   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AMPLITUDE; DATA SET; ICE COVER; NUMERICAL MODEL; SATELLITE DATA; SEA ICE; SEASONAL VARIATION;

ARCTIC OCEAN;

EID: 84873936691     PISSN: 19940416     EISSN: 19940424     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5194/tc-7-275-2013     Document Type: Article

References (37)

1. Abbot, D. S., Silber, M., and Pierrehumbert, R. T.: Bifurcations leading to summer Arctic sea ice loss, J. Geophys. Res., 116, D19120, doi:10.1029/2011JD015653, 2011.
2. Amstrup, S. C., Deweaver, E. T., Douglas, D. C., Marcot, B. G., Durner, G. M., Bitz, C. M., and Bailey, D. A.: Greenhouse gas mitigation can reduce sea-ice loss and increase polar bear persistence, Nature, 468, 955-958, 2010.
3. Bengtsson, L., Semenov, V. A., and Johannessen, O. M.: The Early Twentieth-Century Warming in the Arctic-A Possible Mechanism, J. Climate, 17, 4045-4057, 2004.
4. Boe, J., Hall, A., and Qu, X.: September sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean projected to vanish by 2100, Nat. Geosci., 2, 341-343, 2009.
5. Cavalieri, D., Parkinson, C., Gloerson, P., and Zwally, H.: Sea ice concentrations from Nimbus-7 SMMR and DMSP SSM/I passive microwave data, 1978-2007, http://nsidc.org/data/nsidc-0051.html, Natl. Snow and Ice Data Cent., Boulder, Colo., 1996.
6. Cimatoribus, A. A., Drijfhout, S. S., Livina, V., and van der Schrier, G.: Dansgaard-Oeschger events: tipping points in the climate system, Clim. Past Discuss., 8, 4269-4294, doi:10.5194/cpd-8-4269-2012, 2012.
7. Comiso, J.: Large decadal decline of the Arctic multiyear ice cover, J. Climate, 25, 1176-1193, 2012.
8. Ditlevsen, P. D.: Interactive comment on "A recent bifurcation in Arctic sea-ice cover" by: Livina, V. N. and Lenton, T. M., The Cryosphere Discuss., 6, C1187-C1190, 2012.
9. Ditlevsen, P. D. and Johnsen, S. J.: Tipping points: Early warning and wishful thinking, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L19703, doi:10.1029/2010GL044486, 2010.
10. Eisenman, I.: Geographic muting of changes in the Arctic sea ice cover, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L16501, doi:10.1029/2010GL043741, 2010.
11. Eisenman, I. and Wettlaufer, J. S.: Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Arctic sea ice, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 106, 28-32, 2009.
12. Held, H. and Kleinen, T.: Detection of climate system bifurcations by degenerate fingerprinting, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L23207, doi:10.1029/ 2004GL020972, 2004.
13. Kendall, M. G.: Rank Correlation Methods, Charles Griffin & Company Limited, London, 1948.
14. Lenton, T. M.: Early warning of climate tipping points, Nature Climate Change, 1, 201-209, 2011.
15. Lenton, T. M., Held, H., Kriegler, E., Hall, J. W., Lucht, W., Rahmstorf, S., and Schellnhuber, H. J.: Tipping Elements in the Earth's Climate System, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 105, 1786-1793, 2008.
16. Lindsay, R. W. and Zhang, J.: The Thinning of Arctic Sea Ice, 1988-2003: Have We Passed a Tipping Point?, J. Climate, 18, 4879-4894, 2005.
17. Livina, V. N. and Lenton, T. M.: A modified method for detecting incipient bifurcations in a dynamical system, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L03712, doi:10.1029/2006GL028672, 2007.
18. Livina, V. N. and Lenton, T. M.: A recent bifurcation in Arctic sea-ice cover, The Cryosphere Discuss., 6, 2621-2651, doi:10.5194/tcd-6-2621-2012, 2012.
19. Livina, V. N., Kwasniok, F., and Lenton, T. M.: Potential analysis reveals changing number of climate states during the last 60 kyr, Clim. Past, 6, 77-82, doi:10.5194/cp-6-77-2010, 2010.
20. Livina, V. N., Kwasniok, F., Lohmann, G., Kantelhardt, J. W., and Lenton, T. M.: Changing climate states and stability: from Pliocene to present, Clim. Dynam., 37, 2437-2453, 2011.
21. Livina, V. N., Ditlevsen, P. D., and Lenton, T. M.: An independent test of methods of detecting and anticipating bifurcations in time-series data, Physica A, 391, 485-496, doi:10.1016/j.physa.2011.08.025, 2012.
22. Maslanik, J. and J. Stroeve: Near real-time DMSP SSM/I daily polar gridded sea ice concentrations, http://nsidc.org/data/nsidc-0081. html, Natl. Snow and Ice Data Cent., Boulder, Colo., 1999.
23. Meier, W., Fetterer, F., Knowles, K., Savoie, M., and Brodzik, M. J.: Sea ice concentrations from Nimbus-7 SMMR and DMSP SSM/I passive microwave data, January-December 2008, http://nsidc.org/data/nsidc-0051.html, Natl. Snow and Ice Data Cent., Boulder, Colo., 2006.
24. Nghiem, S. V., Rigor, I. G., Perovich, D. K., Clemente-Colón, P., Weatherly, J. W., and Neumann, G.: Rapid reduction of Arctic perennial sea ice. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L19504, doi:10.1029/2007GL031138, 2007.
25. Notz, D.: The future of ice sheets and sea ice: Between reversible retreat and unstoppable loss, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 106, 20590-20595, 2009.
26. Overland, J. E. and Wang, M.: Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes are associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice, Tellus A, 62, 1-9, 2010.
27. Perovich, D. K. Light, B., Eicken, H., Jones, K. F., Runciman, K., and Nghiem, S. V.: Increasing solar heating of the Arctic Ocean and adjacent seas, 1979-2005: Attribution and role in the ice-albedo feedback, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L19505, doi:10.1029/2007GL031480, 2007.
28. Perovich D. K., J. A. Richter-Menge, K. F. Jones, and Light, B.: Sunlight, water, and ice: Extreme Arctic sea ice melt during the summer of 2007, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L11501, doi:10.1029/2008GL034007, 2008.
29. Petoukhov, V. and Semenov, V. A.: A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents, J. Geophys. Res., 115, doi:10.1029/2009JD013568, D21111, 2010.
30. Scheffer, M. Bascompte, J., Brock, W. A., Brovkin, V., Carpenter, S. R., Dakos, V., Held, H., van Nes, E. H., Rietkerk, M., and Sug-ihara, G.: Early warning signals for critical transitions, Nature, 461, 53-59, 2009.
31. Screen, J. A. and Simmonds, I.: The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification, Nature, 464, 1334-1337, 2010.
32. Screen, J. and Simmonds, I.: Declining summer snowfall in the Arctic: causes, impacts and feedbacks, Clim. Dynam., 38, 2243-2256, doi:0.1007/s00382- 011-1105-2, 2011.
33. Semenov, V. A., Park, W., and Latif, M.: Barents Sea inflow shutdown: A new mechanism for rapid climate changes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L14709, doi:10.1029/2009GL038911, 2009.
34. Stroeve, J., Holland, M. M., Meier, W., Scambos, T., and Serreze, M.: Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L09501, doi:10.1029/2007GL029703, 2007.
35. Stroeve, J. C., Kattsov, V., Barrett, A., Serreze, M., Pavlova, T., Holland, M., and Meier, W. N.: Trends in Arctic sea ice extent from CMIP5, CMIP3 and observations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L16502, doi:10.1029/2012GL052676, 2012.
36. Tietsche, S., Notz, D., Jungclaus, J. H., and Marotzke, J.: Recovery mechanisms of Arctic summer sea ice, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L02707, doi:10.1029/2010GL045698, 2011.
37. Winton, M.: Does the Arctic sea ice have a tipping point?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L23504, doi:10.1029/2006GL028017, 2006.