Applications winter peak electricity load forecasting in South Africa using extreme value theory

South African Statistical Journal

Volumn 46, Issue 2, 2012, Pages 377-394

  Sigauke, C ^b   Chikobvu, D ^a   Verster, A ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF THE FREE STATE   (South Africa)

^b UNIVERSITY OF LIMPOPO   (South Africa)

Author keywords

Extreme value theory; Probability of exceedance; Seasonal peaks; Temperature

Indexed keywords

EID: 84873858836     PISSN: 0038271X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: None     Document Type: Article

References (8)

1. ALLEN, P.G. & MORZURCH, B. J. (1995). Comparing probability forecasts derived from theoretical distributions. International Journal of Forecasting, 11, 147-157.
2. BALKEMA, A. & De HAAN, L. (1974). Residual life time at great age. Annals of Probability, 2, 792-804.
3. BEIRLANT, J., GOEDGEBEUR, Y., SEGERS, J. & TEUGELS, J. (2004). Statistics of Extremes Theory and Applications, Wiley, England.
4. HOR, C., WATSON, S., INFIELD, D. & MAJITHIA, S. (2008). Assessing load forecast uncertainty using extreme value theory. 16th PSCC, Glasgow, Scotland, July 14-18, From http://www.pscc-central.org/8CD9AA33-F8CE-4C06-9AC9- FBDCBAF801A5/FinalDownload/DownloadId-E2956AEF7F3778F56C3AE574A6BD547D/ 8CD9AA33-F8CE-4C06-9AC9-FBDCBAF801A5/uploads/tx-ethpublications/pscc2008-571. pdf.
5. HYNDMAN, R.J. & FAN, S. (2009). Forecasting long-term peak half-hourly electricity demand for South Australia. Report for Electricity Supply Industry Planning Council (South Australia), From http://www.buseco. monash.edu.au/units/forecasting/.
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7. SIGAUKE, C. & CHIKOBVU, D. (2010). Daily peak electricity load forecasting in South Africa using a multivariate non-parametric regression approach. ORION, 26(2), 97-111.
8. VERSTER, A. & De WAAL D.J. (2011). A method for choosing an optimum threshold if the underlying distribution is generalized Burr-Gamma. South African Statistical Journal, 45, 273-292.