Economic appraisal of shale gas plays in Continental Europe

Applied Energy

Volumn 106, Issue , 2013, Pages 100-115

  Weijermars, Ruud ^a,b  

^a DELFT UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY   (Netherlands)

^b Alboran Energy Strategy Consultants   (Netherlands)

Author keywords

Cash flow analysis; Shale gas; Well productivity

Indexed keywords

GAS INDUSTRY; OIL FIELD DEVELOPMENT; PROFITABILITY;

ASSESSMENT CRITERIA; CASH FLOW ANALYSIS; CUMULATIVE CASH FLOW; CURRENT TECHNOLOGY; DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW; ECONOMIC APPRAISAL; ECONOMIC FEASIBILITIES; ESTIMATED ULTIMATE RECOVERIES; GAS PRODUCTIONS; GEOLOGICAL UNCERTAINTY; NET PRESENT VALUE; POSIDONIA; SHALE GAS; SHALE PLAYS; SWEET SPOT; TURKISHS; UNIFORM FIELDS; WELL PRODUCTIVITY;

SHALE;

FLOW MODELING; GAS FIELD; GAS PRODUCTION; GAS WELL; SHALE; TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE;

GERMANY; SWEDEN;

POSIDONIA;

EID: 84873743832     PISSN: 03062619     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2013.01.025     Document Type: Article

References (58)

1. DOE/EIA. Short term energy outlook. US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration; July 2011. <>. http://ei-01.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/steo_full.pdf.
2. DOE/EIA. INTEK subcontract. Review of emerging resources: US shale gas and shale oil plays. US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration; 2011.
3. Bloomberg & Credit Suisse. Breakeven prices reported by Deutsche Bank in proprietary investor report; 2011.
4. Kuhn M, Umbach F. Strategic perspective of unconventional gas: a game changer with implication for the EU's energy security. EUCERS strategy paper. King's College London 2011;1(1).
5. Rogner H. An assessment of world hydrocarbon resources. Annu Rev Energy Environ 1997.
6. WoodMacKenzie. Global unconventional gas trends. Proprietary report; 2009.
7. CERA. Multi-client study, gas from shale-potential outside North America? IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates; February 2009.
8. DOE/EIA. World shale gas resources: an initial assessment of 14 regions outside the United States; 2011.
9. BGR. Abschatzung des erdgaspotenzials aus dichten tongesteinen (Schiefergas) in Deutschland (estimates of potential natural gas from tight shales (shale gas) in Germany). Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe (BGR). Hannover, Germany: Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources; 2012.
10. Medlock K.B. Shale gas, emerging fundamentals, and geopolitics. SPE-GCS general meeting 2012, James A Baker III Institute for Public Policy Rice University, Houston (TX).
11. McGlade C, Speirs J, Sorell S. Unconventional gas - a review of estimates. ICEPT working paper. September 2012. Ref.: ICEPT/WP/2012/015. p. 29.
12. Weijermars R., McCredie C. Shale gas Europe - assessing shale gas potential. Pet Rev 2011, 65(778):24-25.
13. Weijermars R. Time for Europe to face oil and gas supply realities. First Break 2011, 29(7):43-46.
14. McCredie C., Weijermars R. Gas forecasting - Russian gas key to 2020 targets. Pet Rev 2011, 65(774):30-34.
15. Pool W, Geluk M, Ables J, Tiley G, Idiz E, Leenaarts E. Assessment of an unusual European shale gas play: the Cambro-Ordovician alum shale, southern Sweden. In: SPE/EAGE European unconventional resources conference and exhibition, 20-22 March 2012, Vienna, Austria. SPE 152339-MS.
16. Weijermars R., Madsen E. Can the Dutch gas bubble defy King Hubbert's peak?. First Break 2011, 29(4):35-39.
17. Weijermars R., Luthi S.M. Dutch natural gas strategy: historic perspective & challenges ahead. Netherlands J Geosci/Geologie Mijnbouw 2011, 90(1):3-14.
18. Bernstein. Bernstein commodities & power: What to watch - a timeline of European unconventional natural gas drilling. Oswald Clint et al. Bernstein Research; July 23, 2010. p. 7.
19. Geny F. Can unconventional gas be a game changer in European markets? Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. Nat Gas Ser 2010; 46: 120.
20. Weijermars R., Drijkoningen G., Heimovaara T.J., Rudolph S., Weltje G.J., Wolf K.H.A.A. Unconventional gas research initiative for clean energy transition in Europe. J Nat Gas Sci Eng 2011, 3(2):402-412. 10.1016/j.jngse.2011.04.002.
21. Burns C, Topham A, Lakani R. The Challenges of shale gas exploration and appraisal in Europe and North Africa. In: SPE/EAGE European unconventional resources conference and exhibition, 20-22 March 2012, Vienna, Austria. SPE 151868-MS.
22. Sidle RE, Lee WJ. An update on the use of reservoir analogs for the estimation of oil and gas reserves; 2010. SPE129688.
23. Alboran. DCF shale scenario builder - a tool guide; 2012. <>. http://www.alboran.com.
24. Lee WJ. Presentation at Texas A&M; 27 May 2010.
25. Valkó PP. Assigning value to stimulation in the Barnett Shale: a simultaneous analysis of 7000 plus production histories and well completion records. In: Paper SPE 119369 presented at the SPE hydraulic fracturing technology conference, The Woodlands (TX), 19-21 January; 2009. SPE 119639-MS. doi:10.2118/119369-MS.
26. Stern J. Is there a rationale for the continuing link to oil product prices in Continental European long term gas contracts? Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. Nat Gas Ser 19, 2007, <>. http://www.oxfordenergy.org/pdfs/NG19.pdf.
27. Stern J. Continental European long-term gas contracts: is a transition away from oil product-linked pricing inevitable and imminent? Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. Nat Gas Ser 34, 2009, <>. http://www.oxfordenergy.org/pdfs/NG34.pdf.
28. Stern J, Rogers H. The transition to hub-based gas pricing in Continental Europe. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. Nat Gas Ser 49, 2009; 2011, <>. http://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/NG49.pdf.
29. Weijermars R. Trans-Atlantic energy prices show need for realignment. Oil Gas J 2011, 109(23):26-33.
30. Weijermars R., McCredie C. Gas pricing - lifting the price. Pet Rev 2011, 65(770):14-17.
31. WPC. Guidelines for application of the petroleum resource management system. World petroleum council; 2011.
32. SEC. Securities and exchange commission, modernization of oil and gas reporting. SEC release, No. 33-8995; 2009.
33. NPC. Prudent development: realizing the potential of North America's abundant natural gas and oil resources. National Petroleum Council, Draft report released 15 September 2011. <>. http://www.connectlive.com/events/npc091511/.
34. Brooks A. Optimistic NPC Report could point US energy strategy in wrong direction. Energy Strategy Rev 2012, 1(1):57-61.
35. Weijermars R., Watson S. Unconventional natural gas business: TSR benchmark and recommendations for prudent management of shareholder value. SPE Econ Manage 2011, 3(3):247-261. [SPE 154056].
36. Weijermars R., Watson S. Can technology R&D close the unconventional gas performance gap?. First Break 2011, 29(5):89-93.
37. Weijermars R. Jumps in proved unconventional gas reserves present challenges to reserves auditing. SPE Econ Manage 2012, 4(3):131-146. [SPE 160927-PA].
38. Weijermars R., Van der Linden J. Assessing the economic margins of sweet spots in shale gas plays. First Break 2012, 30(12):99-106.
39. IEA. Golden rules for a golden age of gas. World energy outlook special report on unconventional gas. IEA; 2012. p. 150. <>. http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/media/weowebsite/2012/goldenrules/WEO2012_GoldenRulesReport.pdf.
40. Weijermars R. Global shale gas development risk: conditional on profits beating the time-value of money. First Break 2013, 31(1):39-48.
41. Petrohawk. Presentation at enerco conference; 2010.
42. Apache. Investor presentation to Banc of America; 2008.
43. Arps J.J. Analysis of decline curves. Trans AIME 1945, 10. [SPE 1758-PA]. 10.2118/1758.
44. Rose W. Decline curve analyses revisited. Math Geol 1990, 22(8):1051-1061.
45. Lee WJ, Sidle RE. Gas reserves estimation in resource plays; 2010. p. 10. SPE 130102.
46. Fetkovich MJ, Fetkovich EJ, Fetkovich MD. Useful concepts for decline-curve forecasting, reserve estimation and analysis. SPE Reservoir Engineering; February 1996. SPE 28628-PA. doi:10.2118/28628-PA.
47. Mattar M, Morad K, Clarkson CR, Freeman CM, Ilk D, Blasingame TA. Production analysis and forecasting of shale gas reservoirs: case-history based approach; 2008. SPE 119897.
48. Ilk D, AD, Rushing JA, Perego AD, Blasingame TA. Exponential vs. hyperbolic decline in tight gas wells - understanding the origin and implications for reserve estimates using Arps' decline curves. Paper SPE 116731 presented at the 2008 annual technical conference and exposition, Denver, CO 21-24 September; 2008. SPE 116731-MS. doi:10.2118/116731-MS.
49. Dougherty EL, Chang J. A method to quickly estimate the probable value of shale gas well; 2010. SPE 134005.
50. BP. Energy outlook 2030, January 2011. <>. http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review_2011/STAGING/local_assets/pdf/2030_energy_outlook_booklet.pdf.
51. Weijermars R. Weighted Average Cost of Retail Gas (WACORG) highlights pricing effects in the US gas value chain: do we need wellhead price-floor regulation to bail out the unconventional gas industry?. Energy Policy 2011, 39:6291-6300.
52. DOE/EIA. Annual energy outlook 2011. US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration; 2010. <>. http://www.eia.doe.gov/forecasts/aeo/executive_summary.cfm.
53. DOE/EIA. Short term energy outlook. US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, July 2011; 2011a. <>. http://ei-01.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/steo_full.pdf.
54. EC. EU energy trends to 2030-update 2009, European commission, directorate-general for energy in collaboration with climate action DG and mobility and transport DG, European Union, August 2010. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union; 2010. ISBN 978-92-79-16191-9; doi:10.2833/21664.
55. Kramer G.J., Haigh M. No quick switch to low-carbon energy. Nature 2009, 462:568-569.
56. Stermole F.J., Stermole J.M. Economic evaluation and investment decision methods 2009, Investment Evaluations Corporation, Lakewood.
57. Husain TM, Yeong LC, Saxena A, Cengiz U, Ketineni S, Khanzhode A, Muhamad H. Economic comparison of multi-lateral drilling over horizontal drilling for Marcellus shale field development. Final project report EME 580: Integrative Design of Energy & Mineral Engineering Systems. PennState.
58. Madani HS, Holditch S. A methodology to determine both the technically recoverable resource and the economically recoverable resource in an unconventional gas play; 2011. SPE141368.