Permafrost degradation as a control on hydrogeological regime shifts in a warming climate

Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface

Volumn 117, Issue 3, 2012, Pages

  Bense, V F ^a   Kooi, H ^b   Ferguson, G ^c   Read, T ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF EAST ANGLIA   (United Kingdom)

^b VU UNIVERSITY AMSTERDAM   (Netherlands)

^c UNIVERSITY OF SASKATCHEWAN   (Canada)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DEGRADATION; DRAINAGE BASIN; FLUID FLOW; HEAT FLOW; HYDROGEOLOGY; NUMERICAL MODEL; PERMAFROST; WARMING;

ARCTIC;

EID: 84873512049     PISSN: None     EISSN: 21699011     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1029/2011JF002143     Document Type: Article

References (64)

1. Adam, J., and D. Lettenmaier (2008), Application of new precipitation and reconstructed streamflow products to streamflow trend attribution in northern Eurasia, J. Clim., 21(8), 1807-1828.
2. Allen, D., F. Michel, and A. Judge (1988), The permafrost regime in the Mackenzie Delta, Beaufort Sea region, N.W.T., and its significance to the reconstruction of the palaeoclimatic history, J. Quat. Sci., 3, 3-13.
3. Beltrami, H. (2002), Earth's long-term memory, Science, 297, 206-207.
4. Bense, V., and M. Person (2008), Transient hydrodynamics in inter-cratonic basins during glacial cycles, J. Geophys. Res., 113, F04005, doi:10.1029/2007JF000969.
5. Bense, V., G. Ferguson, and H. Kooi (2009), Evolution of shallow groundwater flow systems in areas of degrading permafrost, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L22401, doi:10.1029/2009GL039225.
6. Berezovskaya, S., D. Yang, and D. Kane (2004), Compatibility analysis of precipitation and runoff trends over the large Siberian watersheds, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L21502, doi:10.1029/2004GL021277.
7. Blackwell, D. D., and M. Richards (2004), Geothermal map of North America, sheet 1 , scale 1:6,500,000, Am. Assoc. Pet. Geol., Tulsa, Okla.
8. Chen, Z., and S. E. Grasby (2009), Impact of decadal and century-scale oscillations on hydroclimate trend analyses, J. Hydrol., 365, 122-133, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.11.031.
9. Cutler, P. M., D. R. MacAyeal, D. M. Mickelson, B. R. Parizek, and P. M. Colgan (2000), A numerical investigation of ice-lobe-permafrost interaction around the southern Laurentide ice sheet, J. Glaciol., 46(153), 311-325.
10. Dai, A., T. Qian, K. E. Trenberth, and J. D. Milliman (2009), Changes in continental freshwater discharge from 1948 to 2004, J. Clim., 22, 2773-2792, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2592.1.
11. Doll, P., and K. Fiedler (2008), Global-scale modeling of groundwater recharge, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 12(3), 863-885.
12. Fogg, G. E., and R. Senger (1985), Automatic generation of flow nets with conventional ground-water modeling algorithms, Ground Water, 23(3), 336-344.
13. Freeze, R. A., and J. A. Cherry (1979), Groundwater, 1st ed., Prentice Hall, London.
14. Freeze, R., and P. Witherspoon (1967), Theoretical analysis of regional groundwater flow: 2. Effect of water-table configuration and subsurface permeability variation, Water Resour. Res., 3, 623-634.
15. French, H. (2007), The Periglacial Environment, 3rd ed., 478 pp., Wiley, Hoboken, N. J.
16. Harada, K., K. Wada, T. Sueyoshi, and M. Fukuda (2006), Resistivity structures in alas areas in Central Yakutia, Siberia, and the interpretation of permafrost history, Permafrost Periglacial Processes, 17, 105-118.
17. Ingebritsen, S., W. Sanford, and C. Neuzil (2006), Groundwater in Geological Processes, Cambridge Univ. Press, New York.
18. Jorgenson, M. T., Y. L. Shur, and E. R. Pullman (2006), Abrupt increase in permafrost degradation in Arctic Alaska, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L02503, doi:10.1029/2005GL024960.
19. Karlsson, J. M., A. Bring, G. D. Peterson, L. J. Gordon, and G. Destouni (2011), Opportunities and limitations to detect climate-related regime shifts in inland Arctic ecosystems through eco-hydrological monitoring, Environ. Res. Lett., 6, 014015, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/1/014015.
20. Kleinberg, R., and D. Griffin (2005), NMR measurements of permafrost: Unfrozen water assay, pore-scale distribution of ice, and hydraulic permeability of sediments, Cold Reg. Sci. Technol., 42, 63-77.
21. Kuhry, P., E. Dorrepaal, G. Hugelius, E. A. G. Schuur, and C. Tarnocai (2010), Potential remobilization of belowground permafrost carbon under future global warming, Permafrost Periglacial Processes, 21(2), 208-214, doi:10.1002/ppp.684.
22. Lachenbruch, A. H., J. H. Sass, B. V. Marshall, and T. H. Moses Jr. (1982), Permafrost, heat flow, and the geothermal regime at Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, J. Geophys. Res., 87, 9301-9316.
23. Lemieux, J.-M., E. Sudicky, W. Peltier, and L. Tarasov (2008), Simulating the impact of glaciations on continental groundwater flow systems: II. Model application to the Wisconsinian glaciation over the Canadian landscape, J. Geophys. Res., 113, F03018, doi:10.1029/2007JF000929.
24. Ling, F., and T. Zhang (2004), Modeling study of talik freeze-up and permafrost response under drained thaw lakes on the Alaskan Arctic Coastal Plain, J. Geophys. Res., 109, D01111, doi:10.1029/2003JD003886.
25. Lyon, S. W., and G. Destouni (2010), Changes in catchment-scale recession flow properties in response to permafrost thawing in the Yukon River Basin, Int. J. Climatol., 30, 2138-2145.
26. Lyon, S. W., G. Destouni, R. Giesler, C. Humborg, M. Mörth, J. Seibert, J. Karlsson, and P. A. Troch (2009), Estimation of permafrost thawing rates in a sub-arctic catchment using recession flow analysis, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 594-604, doi:10.5194/hess-13-595-2009.
27. Mackay, J. R. (1997), A full-scale field experiment (1978-1995) on the growth of permafrost by means of lake drainage, western Arctic coast: A discussion of the method and some results, Can. J. Earth Sci., 34, 17-33.
28. Mackay, J. R., and C. Burn (2002), The first 20 years (1978-1979 to 1998-1999) of active-layer development, Illisarvik experimental drained lake site, western Arctic coast, Canada, Can. J. Earth Sci., 39, 1657-1674, doi:10.1139/E02-068.
29. Majorowicz, J., W. Skinner, and J. Säfanda (2004), Large ground warming in the Canadian Arctic inferred from inversions of temperature logs, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 221, 15-25.
30. Majorowicz, J. A., K. Osadetz, and J. Säfanda (2008), Modeling temperature profiles considering the latent heat of physical-chemical reactions in permafrost and gas hydrates: The Mackenzie Delta terrestrial case, in Proceedings of the Ninth International Conference on Permafrost, edited by D. L. Kane and K. M. Hinkel, pp. 1113-1119, Inst. of North. Eng., Univ. of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska.
31. McClelland, J. W., R. M. Holmes, B. J. Peterson, and M. Stieglitz (2004), Increasing river discharge in the Eurasian Arctic: Consideration of dams, permafrost thaw, and fires as potential agents of change, J. Geophys. Res., 109, D18102, doi:10.1029/2004JD004583.
32. McKenzie, J. M., C. I. Voss, and D. I. Siegel (2007), Groundwater flow with energy transport and water-ice phase change: Numerical simulations, benchmarks, and application to freezing in peat bogs, Adv. Water Resour., 30, 966-983, doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2006.08.008.
33. Meehl, G., et al. (2007), Global climate predictions, in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, chap. 10, pp. 747-846, Cambridge Univ. Press, New York.
34. Michel, F. A., and R. O. van Everdingen (1994), Changes in hydrogeologic regimes in permafrost regions due to climatic change, Permafrost Periglacial Processes, 5, 191-195.
35. Minsley, B. J., et al. (2012), Airborne electromagnetic imaging of discontinuous permafrost, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L02503, doi:10.1029/ 2011GL050079.
36. Osterkamp, T. (2007a), Characteristics of the recent warming of permafrost in Alaska, J. Geophys. Res., 112, F02S02, doi:10.1029/2006JF000578.
37. Osterkamp, T. (2007b), Causes of warming and thawing permafrost in Alaska, Eos Trans. AGU, 88(48), 522, doi:10.1029/2007EO480002.
38. Rawlins, M. A., H. Ye, D. Yang, A. Shiklomanov, and K. C. McDonald (2009), Divergence in seasonal hydrology across northern Eurasia:Emerging trends and water cycle linkages, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D18119, doi:10.1029/ 2009JD011747.
39. Rennermalm, A. K., E. F. Wood, and T. J. Troy (2010), Observed changes in pan-arctic cold-season minimum monthly river discharge, Clim. Dyn., 35(6), 923-939, doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0730-5.
40. Romanovsky, V. E., S. L. Smith, and H. H. Christiansen (2010), Permafrost thermal state in the polar Northern Hemisphere during the international polar year 2007-2009: A synthesis, Permafrost Periglacial Processes, 21(2), 106-116, doi:10.1002/ppp.689.
41. Rowland, J. C., B. J. Travis, and C. J. Wilson (2011), The role of advective heat transport in talik development beneath lakes and ponds in discontinuous permafrost, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L17504, doi:10.1029/ 2011GL048497.
42. Schramm, I., J. Boike, W. R. Bolton, and L. D. Hinzman (2007), Application of TopoFlow, a spatially distributed hydrological model, to the Imnavait Creek watershed, Alaska, J. Geophys. Res., 112, G04S46, doi:10.1029/2006JG000326.
43. Slater, A. G., T. J. Bohn, J. L.McCreight, M. C. Serreze, and D. P. Lettenmaier (2007), A multimodel simulation of pan-Arctic hydrology, J. Geophys. Res., 112, G04S45, doi:10.1029/2006JG000303.
44. Smerdon, J. E., H. N. Pollack, J. W. Enz, and M. J. Lewis (2003), Conduction-dominated heat transport of the annual temperature signal in soil, J. Geophys. Res., 108(B9), 2431, doi:10.1029/2002JB002351.
45. Smith, L. C., T. M. Pavelsky, G. M. MacDonald, A. I. Shiklomanov, and R. B. Lammers (2007), Rising minimum daily flows in northern Eurasian rivers: A growing influence of groundwater in the high-latitude hydrologic cycle, J. Geophys. Res., 112, G04S47, doi:10.1029/2006JG000327.
46. St. Jacques, J.-M., and D. J. Sauchyn (2009), Increasing winter baseflow and mean annual streamflow from possible permafrost thawing in the Northwest Territories, Canada, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L01401, doi:10.1029/2008GL035822.
47. Stieglitz, M., S. J. Déry, V. Romanovsky, and T. Osterkamp (2003), The role of snow cover in the warming of arctic permafrost, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(13), 1721, doi:10.1029/2003GL017337.
48. Su, F., J. C. Adam, L. C. Bowling, and D. P. Lettenmaier (2005), Stream-flow simulations of the terrestrial Arctic domain, J. Geophys. Res., 110, D08112, doi:10.1029/2004JD005518.
49. Tarasov, L., and W. R. Peltier (2007), Coevolution of continental ice cover and permafrost extent over the last glacial-interglacial cycle in North America, J. Geophys. Res., 112, F02S08, doi:10.1029/2006JF000661.
50. Taylor, A. E., S. R. Dallimore, and A. S. Judge (1996), Late Quaternary history of the Mackenzie-Beaufort region, Arctic Canada, from modelling of permafrost temperatures. 2. The Mackenzie Delta-Tuktoyaktuk Coastlands, Can. J. Earth Sci., 33, 62-71.
51. Todd, B. J., and S. R. Dallimore (1998), Electromagnetic and geological transect across permafrost terrain, Mackenzie River delta, Canada, Geophysics, 63, 1914-1924.
52. Tolstikhin, N., and O. Tolstikhin (1976), Groundwater and surface water in the permafrost region, Tech. Bull. 97, USSR Acad. of Sci., Sib. Branch, Novosibirsk, USSR.
53. Tóth, J. (1963), A theoretical analysis of groundwater flow in small drainage basins, J. Geophys. Res., 68, 4795-4812.
54. Velicogna, I., J. Tong, T. Zhang, and J. S. Kimball (2012), Increasing subsurface water storage in discontinuous permafrost areas of the Lena River basin, Eurasia, detected from GRACE, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L09403, doi:10.1029/2012GL051623.
55. Walter, K. M., S. A. Zimov, J. P. Chanton, D. Verbyla, and F. S. Chapin III (2006), Methane bubbling from Siberian thaw lakes as a positive feedback to climate warming, Nature, 443, 71-75, doi:10.1038/nature05040.
56. Walvoord, M., and R. Striegl (2007), Increased groundwater to stream discharge from permafrost thawing in the yukon river basin: Potential impacts on lateral export of carbon and nitrogen, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L12402, doi:10.1029/2007GL030216.
57. Williams, J. (1970), Ground water in the permafrost regions of Alaska, U.S. Geol. Surv. Prof. Pap., 696, 83 pp.
58. Winter, T. C. (1999), Relation of streams, lakes, and wetlands to groundwater flow systems, Hydrogeol. J., 7, 28-45.
59. Woo, M.-K., D. L. Kane, S. K. Carey, and D. Yang (2008), Progress in permafrost hydrology in the new millennium, Permafrost Periglacial Processes, 19, 237-254, doi:10.1002/ppp.613.
60. Ye, B., D. Yang, Z. Zhang, and D. L. Kane (2009), Variation of hydrological regime with permafrost coverage over Lena Basin in Siberia, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D07102, doi:10.1029/2008JD010537.
61. Zhang, T., J. A. Heginbottom, R. G. Barry, and J. Brown (2000), Further statistics on the distribution of permafrost and ground ice in the Northern Hemisphere, Polar Geogr., 24, 126-131.
62. Zhang, Y., W. Chen, and D. W. Riseborough (2008a), Transient projections of permafrost distribution in Canada during the 21st century under scenarios of climate change, Global Planet. Change, 60, 443-456, doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha. 2007.05.003.
63. Zhang, Y., W. Chen, and D. W. Riseborough (2008b), Disequilibrium response of permafrost thaw to climate warming in Canada over 1850-2100, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L02502, doi:10.1029/2007GL032117.
64. Zhou, W., and S. L. Huang (2004), Modeling impacts of thaw lakes to ground thermal regime in northern Alaska, J. Cold Reg. Eng., 18(2), 70-87, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)0887-381X(2004)18:2(70).