Fractal Crises - A New Path for Crisis Theory and Management

Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management

Volumn 21, Issue 1, 2013, Pages 4-16

  Topper, Benjamin ^a   Lagadec, Patrick ^b  

^a ECOLE NORMALE SUPÉRIEURE   (France)

^b ECOLE POLYTECHNIQUE   (France)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CRISIS MANAGEMENT; FRACTAL ANALYSIS; INNOVATION; THEORETICAL STUDY;

EID: 84873496188     PISSN: 09660879     EISSN: 14685973     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/1468-5973.12008     Document Type: Article

References (55)

1. Allison, G.T. (1971), The Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis, Little Brown, Boston.
2. Béjin, A. and Morin, E. (eds) (1976), 'Introduction', Communications, Volume 25, pp. 1-3.
3. Bernstein, P.L. (1996), Against the Gods, The Remarkable Story of Risk, John Wiley & Sons, New York.
4. Béroux, P., Guilhou, X. and Lagadec, P. (2007), 'Implementing Rapid Reflection Forces', Crisis Response, Volume 3, Number 2, pp. 36-37.
5. Béroux, P., Guilhou, X. and Lagadec, P. (2008), 'Rapid Reflection Forces Put to the Reality Test', Crisis Response, Volume 4, Number 2, pp. 38-40.
6. Birraux, C. (2010), Apports des sciences et technologies à l'évolution des marchés financiers, OPECST.
7. Boin, A. and McConnel, A. (2007), 'Preparing for Critical Infrastructure Breakdowns: The Limits of Crisis Management and the Need for Resilience', Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, Volume 15, Number 1, pp. 50-59.
8. Boin, R.A. (2004), 'Lessons from Crisis Research', International Studies Review, Volume 6, pp. 165-194.
9. Boin, R.A. and Lagadec, P. (2000), 'Preparing for the Future: Critical Challenges in Crisis Management', Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, Volume 8, Number 4, pp. 185-191.
10. Buffon, G.-L. (1749), Théorie de la Terre, quoted in Delumeau, J. and Lequin, Y., Les Malheurs des temps - histoire des fléaux et des calamités en France; Mentalités : vécu et représentations, Larousse, 1987, p. 397.
11. Camillus, J.C. (2008), 'Strategy as a Wicked Problem', Harvard Business Review, May 2008.
12. Cooper Ramo, J. (2009), The Age of the Unthinkable: Why the New World Disorder Constantly Surprises Us and What We Can Do About It, Little, Brown and Company, New York.
13. Dayton, B.W. (ed.) (2004), 'Managing Crises in the Twenty-First Century', International Studies Review, Volume 6, pp. 165-194.
14. Descartes, R. (1637), Discourse on Method, Meditations on First Philosophy, BN Publishing, 2007 (Part 1, p. 14).
15. Drabek, T. (1986), Human System Responses to Disaster: An Inventory of Sociological Findings, Springer, New York.
16. Fink, S. (1986), Crisis Management. Planning for the Inevitable, American Management Association, Amacom.
17. Granatt, M. (2011), Presentation, 'New Maps for Immediate Future', Universcience, Cité des Sciences, Paris.
18. Granatt, M. and Paré-Chamontin, A. (2006), 'Cooperative Structures and Critical Functions to Deliver Resilience within Network Society', International Journal of Emergency Management, Volume 3, Number 1, pp. 52-57.
19. Hegel, G.W.F. (1820), 'Preface', Batoche Books, Kitchener, 2001.
20. Helsloot, I., Boin, A., Jacobs, B. and Comfort, L. (eds) (2012), L. Mega-Crises: Understanding the Prospects, Nature, Characteristics and Effects of Cataclysmic Events, Charles Thomas, Springfield.
21. Hermann, C.F. (ed.) (1972), International Crises: Insights from Behavioral Research, The Free Press, London, Collier-Macmillan, New York.
22. Körnert, J. (2003), 'The Barings Crises of 1890 and 1995: Causes, Courses, Consequences and the Danger of Domino Effects', Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money, Volume 13, pp. 187-209.
23. Kouzmin, A. (2008), 'Crisis Management in Crisis?', Administration Theory & Praxis, Volume 30, Number 2, pp. 155-183.
24. Kuhn, T. (1962), The Structure of Scientific Revolution, University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
25. Lagadec, P. (1993), Preventing Chaos in a Crisis, McGraw Hill, London.
26. Lagadec, P. (2006), 'Crisis Management in the Twenty-First Century - "Unthinkable" Events in "Unthinkable" Contexts', in Rodriguez, H., Quarantelli, E.L. and Dynes, R. (eds), Handbook of Disaster Research, Chapter 30: Springer, New York, pp. 489-507.
27. Lagadec, P. (2012), 'The Megacrisis Unknown Territory: In Search of Conceptual and Strategic Breakthroughs', in Rosenthal, U., Jacobs, B., Comfort, L.K. and Helsloot, I. (eds), Megacrises, CC Thomas, Springfield, IL, pp. 12-24.
28. Lagadec, P. and Topper, B. (2012), 'How Crises Model the Modern World', International Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, Volume 2, Number 1, pp. 21-33.
29. LaPorte, T.R. (2007a), 'Critical Infrastructure in the Face of a Predatory Future: Preparing for Untoward Surprise', Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, Volume 15, Number 1, pp. 60-64.
30. LaPorte, T.R. (2007b), 'Anticipating Rude Surprises: Reflections on "Crisis Management" Without End', in ch2: Jones, L. (ed.), Communicable Crises: Prevention, Management and Resolution in the Global Arena, Elsevier, pp. 27-46.
31. Mandelbrot, B. (1982), The Fractal Geometry of Nature, W.H. Freeman, San Francisco.
32. Mandelbrot, B. (2005), Une approche fractale des marchés, Odile Jacob, Cambridge.
33. Mc Kay, A. (2011), The Arab Spring of Discontent, e-International Relations.
34. Mitroff, I., Murat, A.C. and Green, S.E. (2004), 'Crises as Ill Structured Messes' (175-182), in Dayton, Bruce W. Ed. (2004), 'Managing Crises in the Twenty-First Century', International Studies Review, Number 6, pp. 165-194.
35. Morin, E. (1976), 'Pour une crisologie', Communications, Volume n°25, pp. 149-163.
36. Morris, E. (2003), The Fog of War, McNamara testimony, video, Sony pictures classics.
37. OECD. (2011), Future Global Shocks - Improving Risk Governance, Preliminary Version.
38. Perrow, C. (1984), Normal Accidents: Living with High-Risk Technologies, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.
39. Perrow, C. (2007), The Next Catastrophe - Reducing Our Vulnerabilities to Natural, Industrial, and Terrorist Disasters, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.
40. Quarantelli, E.L. and Dynes, R. (1977), 'Response to Social Crisis and Disaster', Annual Review of Sociology, Volume 3, pp. 23-49.
41. Rittel, H. and Webber, M. (1973), 'Dilemmas in a General Theory of Planning', Policy Sciences, Elsevier, Volume 4, pp. 155-169.
42. Robinson, J.A. (1968), 'Crisis', in Sills, D.L. (ed.), International Encyclopedia for Social Sciences, Vol. 3, Sills, New York, pp. 510-514.
43. Rodriguez, H., Quarantelli, E.L. and Dynes, R. (2006), Handbook of Disaster Research, Springer, New York.
44. Rosenthal, U., Boin, A. and Comfort, L. (eds) (2001), Managing Crises - Threat, Dilemmas, Opportunities, Charles C. Thomas Publisher, Springfield, IL.
45. Rosenthal, U., Charles, M.T. and 't Hart, P. (eds) (1989), Coping with Crises. The Management of Disasters, Riots and Terrorism, Charles C. Thomas Publisher, Springfield, IL.
46. Smallman, C. and Weir, D. (1999), 'Communication and Cultural Distortion during Crises', Disaster Prevention and Management, Volume 8, pp. 33-41.
47. Sornette, D. (2006), Critical Phenomena in Natural Sciences : Chaos, Fractals, Self-Organization and Disorders (2nd edn), Springer Verlag, Berlin.
48. Starn, R. (1976), '« Métamorphose d'une notion. Les historiens et la «Crise»', Communications, Volume 25, pp. 4-18.
49. Sunzi (1999), The Art of War, Library of Chinese Classics, Foreign Languages Press, Beijing, p. 23.
50. Taleb, N.N. (2007), The Black Swan - The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Allen Lane, Penguin Books, London.
51. Ten Berge, D. (1990), The First 24 Hours. A Comprehensive Guide to Successful Crisis Communications, Basil Blackwell, Oxford.
52. Thiétart, R.-A. and Forgues, B. (1995), 'Chaos Theory and Organization', Organization Science, Volume 6, Number 1, pp. 19-31.
53. Weick, K. (1995), Sensemaking in Organizations, Sage, London.
54. Weinberg, A. (1985), 'Science and Its Limits: The Regulator's Dilemma', Issues in Science and Technology, Volume 2, Number 1, pp. 59-72 (p. 60).
55. Yudkowsky, E. (2008), 'Cognitive Biases Potentially Affecting Judgment of Global Risks', in Bostrom, N. and Cirkowic, M. (eds), Global Catastrophic Risks, Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp. 91-119.