Limiting global warming to 2C is unlikely to save most coral reefs

Nature Climate Change

Volumn 3, Issue 2, 2013, Pages 165-170

  Frieler, K ^a   Meinshausen, M ^a,b   Golly, A ^a   Mengel, M ^a   Lebek, K ^a   Donner, S D ^c   Hoegh Guldberg, O ^d  

^a POTSDAM INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE IMPACT RESEARCH   (Germany)

^b UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE   (Australia)

^c UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA   (Canada)

^d UNIVERSITY OF QUEENSLAND   (Australia)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ACIDIFICATION; ATMOSPHERIC GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; CORAL BLEACHING; CORAL REEF; GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE; GLOBAL WARMING; INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE; OCEANIC GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; SURVIVAL;

ANTHOZOA;

EID: 84873201827     PISSN: 1758678X     EISSN: 17586798     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1674     Document Type: Article

References (39)

1. Wilkinson, C. Status of Coral Reefs of The World: 2004 (Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network, 2004).
2. Hoegh-Guldberg, O. et al. Coral reefs under rapid climate change and ocean acidification. Science 318, 1737-1742 (2007).
3. Shamberger, K. E. F. et al. Calcification and organic production on a Hawaiian coral reef. Mar. Chem. 127, 64-75 (2011).
4. Bruno, J. F. & Selig, E. R. Regional decline of coral cover in the Indo-Pacific: Timing, extent, and subregional comparisons. PLoS ONE 2, e711 (2007).
5. Hoegh-Guldberg, O. & Smith, G. J. The effect of sudden changes in temperature, light and salinity on the population-density and export of zooxanthellae from the reef corals Stylophora pistillata Esper and Seriatopora hystrix Dana. J. Exp. Mar. Biol. Ecol. 129, 279-303 (1989). (Pubitemid 20420450)
6. Eakin, C. M. et al. Caribbean corals in crisis: Record thermal stress, bleaching, and mortality in 2005. PLoS ONE 5, e13969 (2010).
7. Baker, A., Glynn, P. W. & Riegl, B. Climate change and coral reef bleaching: An ecological assessment of long-term impacts, recovery trends and future outlook. Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci. 80, 435-471 (2008).
8. Liu, G., Skirving, W. J. & Strong, A. E. Remote sensing of sea surface temperatures during 2002 barrier reef coral bleaching. Eos Trans. 84, 137-144 (2003).
9. Liu, G., Strong, A. E., Skirving, W. J. & Arzayus, L. F. 10th Int. Coral Reef Symp. 1783-1793 (International Coral Reef Symposium (ICRS) Proceedings, 2004).
10. Donner, S. D. Coping with commitment: Projected thermal stress on coral reefs under different future scenarios. Plos ONE 4, e5712 (2009).
11. Donner, S. D., Skirving, W. J., Little, C. M., Oppenheimer, M. & Hoegh-Guldberg, O. Global assessment of coral bleaching and required rates of adaptation under climate change. Glob. Change Biol. 11, 2251-2265 (2005). (Pubitemid 43904657)
12. Mitchell, J., Johns, T., Eagles, M., Ingram, W. & Davis, R. Towards the construction of climate change scenarios. Climatic Change 41, 547-581 (1999). (Pubitemid 29275898)
13. Simpson, M. C. et al. An Overview of Modelling Climate Change Impacts in the Caribbean Region with Contribution from the Pacific Islands (United Nations Development Programme, 2009).
14. Hoeke, R. K., Jokiel, P. L., Buddemeier, R. W. & Brainard, R. E. Projected changes to growth and mortality of Hawaiian corals over the next 100 years. PLoS ONE 6, e18038 (2011).
15. Donner, S. D, Knutson, T. R. & Oppenheimer, M. Model-based assessment of the role of human-induced climate change in the 2005 Caribbean coral bleaching event. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 104, 5483 (2007).
16. Barshis, D. J. et al. Protein expression and genetic structure of the coral Porites lobata in an environmentally extreme Samoan back reef: Does host genotype limit phenotypic plasticity? Mol. Ecol. 19, 1705-1720 (2010).
17. McClanahan, T. R. et al. in Ecological Studies Vol. 205 (ed. Caldwell, M. M.) 121-138 (Springer, 2009).
18. Yee, S. H., Santavy, D. L. & Barron, M. G. Comparing environmental influences on coral bleaching across and within species using clustered binomial regression. Ecol. Model. 218, 162-174 (2008).
19. Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Ortiz, J. C. & Dove, S. The future of coral reefs. Science 334, 1494-1495 (2011).
20. Pandolfi, J. M., Connolly, S. R., Marshall, D. J. & Cohen, A. L. Projecting coral reef futures under global warming and ocean acidification. Science 333, 418-422 (2011).
21. Pandolfi, J. M., Connolly, S. R., Marshall, D. J. & Cohen, A. L. Response to ̀the future of coral reefs'. Science 334 (2011).
22. Weis, V. M. The susceptibility and resilience of corals to thermal stress: Adaptation, acclimatization or both? Mol. Ecol. 19, 1515-1517 (2010).
23. Kleypas, J. A. & Langdon, C. et al. in Coral Reefs and Climate Change: Science and Management Vol. 61 (ed. Phinney, J. T.) 73-110 (AGU Monograph Series, Coastal and Estuarine Studies, Geophys. Union, 2006).
24. Langdon, C. & Atkinson, M. J. Effect of elevated pCO2 on photosynthesis and calcification of corals and interactions with seasonal change in temperature/irradiance and nutrient enrichment. J. Geophys. Res. 110, C09S07 (2005).
25. Schneider, K. & Erez, J. The effect of carbonate chemistry on calcification and photosynthesis in the hermatypic coral Acropora eurystoma. Limnol. Oceanogr. 51, 1284-1293 (2006). (Pubitemid 43845284)
26. Ohde, S. & van Woesik, R. Carbon dioxide flux and metabolic processes of coral reefs, Okinawa. Bull. Mar. Sci. 65, 559-576 (1999). (Pubitemid 34082027)
27. Silverman, J., Lazar, B., Cao, L., Caldeira, K. & Erez, J. Coral reefs may start dissolving when atmospheric CO2 doubles. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L05606 (2009).
28. Silverman, J., Lazar, B. & Erez, J. Effect of aragonite saturation, temperature, and nutrients on the community calcification rate of a coral reef. J. Geophys. Res. 112, C05004 (2007).
29. Cohen, A. L., McCorkle, D. C., de Putron, S. J., Gaetani, G. A. & Rose, K. A. Morphological and compositional changes in the skeletons of new coral recruits reared in acidified seawater: Insights into the biomineralization response to ocean acidification. Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst. 10 (2009).
30. Anthony, K. R. N., Kline, D. I., Diaz-Pulido, G., Dove, S. & Hoegh-Guldberg, O. Ocean acidification causes bleaching and productivity loss in coral reef builders. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 105, 17442-17446 (2008).
31. Wooldridge, S. A. A new conceptual model for the warm-water breakdown of the coral-algae endosymbiosis. Mar. Freshwat. Res. 60, 483-496 (2009).
32. Hoegh-Guldberg, O. & Jones, R. J. Photoinhibition and photoprotection in symbiotic dinoflagellates from reef-building corals. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 183, 73-86 (1999). (Pubitemid 29355165)
33. UNFCCC The Cancun Agreements: Outcome of the Work of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action Under the Convention FCCC/CP/2010/7/Add.1. (UNFCCC, 2010); available via http://go.nature.com/vKU9wU.
34. Buddemeier, R. W., Lane, D. R. & Martinich, J. A. Modeling regional coral reef responses to global warming and changes in ocean chemistry: Caribbean case study. Climatic Change 109, 375-397 (2011).
35. Meinshausen, M. et al. Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2-C. Nature 458, 1158 (2009).
36. Mumby, P. J., Hastings, A. & Edwards, H. J. Thresholds and the resilience of Caribbean coral reefs. Nature 450 (2007).
37. Hoegh-Guldberg, O. Climate change, coral bleaching and the future of the world's coral reefs. Mar. Freshwat. Res. 50, 839-866 (1999). (Pubitemid 30018479)
38. Jansen, E. & Overpeck, J. in IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (eds Solomon, S. et al.) 433-498 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007).
39. Caldeira, K. & Wickett, M. E. Ocean model predictions of chemistry changes from carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere and ocean. J. Geophys. Res. 110, C09S04 (2005).