A straightforward conceptual approach for evaluating spatial conservation priorities under climate change

Biodiversity and Conservation

Volumn 22, Issue 2, 2013, Pages 483-495

  Loyola, Rafael D ^a   Lemes, Priscila ^a   Nabout, João Carlos ^b   Trindade Filho, Joaquim ^a   Sagnori, Maíra Dalía ^a   Dobrovolski, Ricardo ^a   Diniz Filho, José Alexandre F ^a  

^a FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF GOIÁS   (Brazil)

^b UNIVERSIDADE ESTADUAL DE GOIÁS   (Brazil)

Author keywords

Amphibians; Atlantic Forest Biodiversity Hotspot; Climate change adaptation; Ecological niche models; Ensemble forecasting; MARXAN; Spatial conservation prioritization; Species distribution models; Systematic conservation planning

Indexed keywords

ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT; AMPHIBIAN; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK; CONSERVATION PLANNING; ECOLOGICAL MODELING; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; EXPERIMENTAL STUDY; NICHE; PRIORITIZATION; RANGE SIZE; SPATIAL ANALYSIS; SPECIES OCCURRENCE; SPECIES RICHNESS; TURNOVER;

ATLANTIC FOREST;

AMPHIBIA;

EID: 84872668729     PISSN: 09603115     EISSN: 15729710     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10531-012-0424-x     Document Type: Article

References (61)

1. Allouche O, Tsoar A, Kadmon R (2006) Assessing the accuracy of species distribution models, prevalence, kappa and the true skill statistic (TSS). J Appl Ecol 43: 1223-1232.
2. Araújo MB (2009) Climate change and spatial conservation planning. In: Moilanen A, Wilson KA, Possingham HP (eds) Spatial conservation prioritization, quantitative methods and computational tools. Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp 172-184.
3. Araújo MB, New M (2007) Ensemble forecasting of species distributions. Trends Ecol Evol 22: 42-47.
4. Araújo MB, Rahbek C (2006) How does climate change affect biodiversity? Science 313: 1396-1397.
5. Becker CG, Loyola RD (2008) Extinction risk assessments at the population and species level, implications for amphibian conservation. Biodivers Conserv 17: 2297-2304.
6. Becker CG, Fonseca CR, Haddad CFB, Batista RF, Prado PI (2007) Habitat split and the global decline of amphibians. Science 318: 1775-1777.
7. Becker CG, Loyola RD, Haddad CFB, Zamudio KR (2010) Integrating species life-history traits and patterns of deforestation in amphibian conservation planning. Divers Distrib 16: 10-19.
8. Brito D (2009) Population viability analysis as a tool for biodiversity conservation in Brazil. Oecol Brasiliensis 13: 450-467.
9. Bush MA, Hooghiemstra H (2005) Tropical biotic responses to climate change. In: Lovejoy TE, Hannah L (eds) Climate change and biodiversity. Yale University Press, New Haven, pp 125-156.
10. Carey C, Alexander MA (2003) Climate change and amphibian declines, is there a link. Divers Distrib 9: 111-121.
11. Carnaval AC, Hickerson MJ, Haddad CFB, Rodrigues MT, Moritz C (2009) Stability predicts genetic diversity in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest hotspot. Science 323: 85-789.
12. Carroll C, Noss RF, Paquet PC, Schumaker NH (2003) Use of population viability analysis and reserve selection algorithms in regional conservation plans. Ecol Appl 13: 1773-1789.
13. Carroll C, Dunk JR, Moilanen A (2010) Optimizing resiliency of reserve networks to climate change: multispecies conservation planning in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Global Change Biol 16: 891-904.
14. Diniz-Filho JAF, Bini LM, Rangel TFLVB et al (2009a) Partitioning and mapping uncertainties in ensembles of forecasts of species turnover under climate change. Ecography 32: 897-906.
15. Diniz-Filho JAF, Oliveira G, Bini LM et al (2009b) Conservation biogeography and climate change in the Brazilian Cerrado. Nat Conservação 7: 100-112.
16. Diniz-Filho JAF, Nabout JC, Bini LM et al (2010) Ensemble forecasting shifts in climatically suitable areas for Tropidacris cristata (Orthoptera, Acridoidea, Romaleidae). Insect Conserv Divers 3: 213-221.
17. Elith J, Graham CH, Anderson RP et al (2006) Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data. Ecography 29: 129-151.
18. Faleiro FV, Machado RB, Loyola RD (2013) Defining spatial conservation priorities in the face of land-use and climate change. Biol Conserv 158: 248-257.
19. Franklin J (2009) Mapping species distribution: spatial inference and prediction. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
20. Groves C, Game ET, Anderson MG et al (2012) Incorporating climate change into systematic conservation planning. Biodivers Conserv 21: 1651-1671.
21. Gudynas E, Williams JD, Azpelicueta MM (1988) Morphology, ecology and biogeography of the South American caecilian Chthonerpeton indistinctum (Amphibia, Gymnophiona, Typhlonectidae). Zoologische Mededelingen 62: 5-28.
22. Kerr JT, Kharouba HM, Currie DJ (2007) The macroecological contribution to global change solutions. Science 316: 1581-1584.
23. Lawler JJ, Shafer SL, White D et al (2009) Projected climate-induced faunal change in the Western Hemisphere. Ecology 90: 588-597.
24. Lips KR, Diffendorfer J, Mendelson JR III et al (2008) Riding the wave, reconciling the roles of disease and climate change in amphibian declines. PLoS Biol 6: e72.
25. Loucks C, Ricketts TH, Naidoo R et al (2008) Explaining the global pattern of protected area coverage, relative importance of vertebrate biodiversity, human activities and agricultural suitability. J Biogeogr 35: 1337-1348.
26. Lourival R, Drechsler M, Watts ME et al (2011) Planning for reserve adequacy in dynamic landscapes; maximizing future representation of vegetation communities under flood disturbance in the Pantanal wetland. Divers Distrib 17: 297-310.
27. Loyola RD, Becker CG, Kubota U et al (2008) Hung out to dry, choice of priority ecoregions for conserving threatened Neotropical anurans depends on life-history traits. PLoS ONE 3: e2120.
28. Loyola RD, Oliveira-Santos LGR, Almeida-Neto M et al (2009) Integrating economic costs and biological traits into global conservation priorities for carnivores. PLoS ONE 4: e6807.
29. Loyola RD, Eizirik E, Machado RB (2011) Toward innovative integrated approaches for the conservation of mammals. Nat Conservação 9: 1-5. doi: 10. 4322/natcon. 00901001.
30. Loyola RD, Lemes P, Faleiro FV et al (2012a) Severe loss of suitable climatic conditions for marsupial species in Brazil: challenges and opportunities for conservation. PLoS ONE 7: e46257.
31. Loyola RD, Nabout JC, Trindade-filho J et al (2012b) Climate change might drive species into reserves: a case study of the American bullfrog in the Atlantic Forest Biodiversity Hotspot. Alytes 29: 61-74.
32. Machado RA, Haddad CFB (2001) Geographic distribution, Hyla anceps. Herpetol Rev 32: 113.
33. Marmion M, Parviainen M, Luoto M et al (2009) Evaluation of consensus methods in predictive species distribution modeling. Divers Distrib 15: 59-69.
34. Moilanen A, Wilson KA, Possingham HP (2009) Spatial conservation prioritization, quantitative methods and computational tools. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
35. Morellato P, Haddad CFB (2000) Introduction: the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Biotropica 32: 786-792.
36. Myers N, Mittermeier RA, Mittermeier CG et al (2000) Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities. Nature 403: 853-858.
37. Nori J, Urbina-Cardona JN, Loyola RD et al (2011) Climate change and American Bullfrog invasion: what could we expect in South America? PLoS ONE 6: e25718. doi: 10. 1371/journal. pone. 0025718.
38. Pearson RG, Dawson TP (2003) Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species, are bioclimate envelopes usefull? Global Ecol Biogeogr 12: 361-371.
39. Peterson AT, Papes M, Eaton M (2007) Transferability and model evaluation in ecological niche modeling, a comparison of GARP and Maxent. Ecography 30: 550-560.
40. Phillips SJ, Dudík M (2008) Modeling of species distributions with Maxent, new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation. Ecography 31: 161-175.
41. Pinto MP, Grelle CEV (2009) Reserve selection and persistence: complementing the existing Atlantic Forest reserve system. Biodivers Conserv 18: 957-968.
42. Possingham H, Ball I, Andelman S (2000) Mathematical methods for identifying representative reserve networks. In: Ferson S, Burgman M (eds) Quantitative methods for conservation biology. Springer-Verlag, New York, pp 291-306.
43. Possingham HP, Moilanen A, Wilson K (2009) Accounting for habitat dynamics in conservation planning. In: Moilanen A, Wilson KA, Possingham HP (eds) Spatial conservation prioritization, quantitative methods and computational tools. Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp 135-144.
44. Pounds JA, Bustamante MR, Coloma LA et al (2006) Widespread amphibian extinctions from epidemic disease driven by global warming. Nature 439: 161-167.
45. Pressey RL, Possingham HP, Day JR (1997) Effectiveness of alternative heuristic algorithms for identifying indicative minimum requirements for conservation reserves. Biol Conserv 80: 207-219.
46. Rodrigues ASL, Akcçakaya HR, Andelman SJ et al (2004) Global gap analysis: priority regions for expanding the global protected-area network. Bioscience 54: 1092-1100.
47. Rodrigues RR, Lima RAF, Gandolfi S et al (2009) On the restoration of high diversity forests, 30 years of experience in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Biol Conserv 142: 1242-1251.
48. Rolim DC, Maffei F, Sene RK et al (2008) Amphibia, Anura, Hylidae, Dendropsophus anceps, distribution extension in state of São Paulo, Brazil. Check List 4: 358-361.
49. Roura-Pascal N, Brotons L, Peterson AT et al (2009) Consensual predictions of potential distributional areas for invasive species, a case study of Argentine ants in the Iberian Peninsula. Biol Invasions 11: 1017-1031.
50. Salazar LF, Nobre CA, Oyama MD (2007) Climate change consequences on the distribution in tropical South America. Geophys Res Lett 34: 1-6.
51. Sarkar S, Illoldi-Rangel P (2010) Systematic conservation planning, an updated protocol. Nat Conservação 8: 19-26.
52. SOS Mata Atlântica, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (2008) Atlas dos remanescentes florestais da Mata Atlântica, período de 2000 a 2005. http://www. sosmatatlantica. org. br. Accessed 15 Nov 2011.
53. Souza TV, Lorini ML, Alves MAS et al (2011) Redistribution of threatened and endemic Atlantic forest birds under climate change. Nat Conservação 9: 214-218.
54. Stuart SN, Chanson JS, Cox NA et al (2004) Status and trends of amphibian declines and extinctions worldwide. Science 306: 1783-1786.
55. Stuart SN, Hoffmann M, Chanson JS et al (2008) Threatened amphibians of the world. Lynix Edicions, Barcelona.
56. Thuiller W (2007) Biodiversity-climate change and the ecologist. Nature 448: 550-552.
57. Thuiller W, Lavorel S, Araújo MB (2005) Niche properties and geographical extent as predictors of species sensitivity to climate change. Global Ecol Biogeogr 14: 347-357.
58. Trindade-Filho J, Carvalho RA, Brito D et al (2012) How does the inclusion of data deficient species change conservation priorities for amphibians in the Atlantic Forest? Biodivers Conserv 21: 2709-2718.
59. Tsoar A, Allouche O, Steinitz O et al (2007) A comparative evaluation of presence only methods for modelling species distribution. Divers Distrib 13: 397-405.
60. UNEP-WCMC (2010) Data standards for the world database on protected areas. UNEP-WCMC, Cambridge.
61. Whittaker RJ, Araújo MB, Jepson P et al (2005) Conservation biogeography, assessment and prospect. Divers Distrib 11: 3-23.