Wheat export restrictions and domestic market effects in Russia and Ukraine during the food crisis

Food Policy

Volumn 38, Issue 1, 2013, Pages 214-226

  Götz, Linde ^a   Glauben, Thomas ^a   Brümmer, Bernhard ^b  

^a LEIBNIZ INSTITUTE OF AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT IN TRANSITION ECONOMIES IAMO   (Germany)

^b UNIVERSITY OF GÖTTINGEN   (Germany)

Author keywords

Export controls; Food crisis; Food security; Markov switching error correction model; Price insulation; Russia; Spatial price transmission; Ukraine; Wheat market

Indexed keywords

EXPORT; FOOD POLICY; MARKOV CHAIN; NUMERICAL MODEL; WHEAT;

RUSSIAN FEDERATION; UKRAINE;

TRITICUM AESTIVUM;

EID: 84872389027     PISSN: 03069192     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2012.12.001     Document Type: Article

References (60)

1. Abbott P.C. Export restrictions as stabilization responses to food crises. Am. J. Agric. Econ. 2012, 94(2):428-434.
2. AMI (Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft), 2009. Unpublished Data, Bonn.
3. APK-Inform, 2010. Transport Infrastructure of the Grain Market of the Azov-Black Sea Region in 2009. APK Inform Agency, Marketing Department.
4. APK-Inform, 2010. AgriNews. (accessed 20.07.11). http://www.agrimarket.info/allnews.php.
5. APK-Inform, 2009. Unpublished Data. Dnipropetrovsk, Ukraine.
6. Balke N.S., Fomby T.B. Threshold cointegration. Int. Econ. Rev. 1997, 38:627-645.
7. Balcombe K., Bailey A., Brooks J. Threshold effects in price transmission: the case of brazilian wheat, maize and soya prices. J. Agric. Econ. 2007, 89(2):308-323.
8. Barassi M.R., Ghoshray A. Structural change and long-run relationships between US and EU wheat export prices. J. Agric. Econ. 2007, 58(1):76-90.
9. Barassi M.R., Taylor A.M.R. A Test for Change in the Cointegrating Rank 2004, University of Birmingham, Mimeo, Birminghan.
10. Berkowitz D., deJong D.N., Husted S. Quantifying price liberalization in Russia. J. Comp. Econ. 1998, 26(4):735-760.
11. Beuerlein, J., 2009. Classes and Uses of Wheat. (accessed 09.12.09). http://www.ohioline.osu.edu/agf-fact/0146.html.
12. Brümmer B., von Cramon-Taubadel S., Zorya S. The impact of market and policy instability on price transmission between wheat and flour in Ukraine. Eur. Rev. Agric. Econ. 2009, 36(2):203-230.
13. von Cramon-Taubadel S., Reiser M. The Quotas on Grain Exports in Ukraine: Ineffective, Inefficient, and Non-transparent 2006, World Bank Report.
14. Cudjoe G., Breisinger C., Diao X. Local impacts of a global crisis: food price transmission, consumer welfare and poverty in Ghana. Food Policy 2010, 35:294-302.
15. Davies R.B. Hypothesis testing when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative. Biometrika 1987, 74:33-43.
16. Dawe, D., 2008. Have Recent Increases in International Prices Been Transmitted to Domestic Economies? The Experience in Seven Large Asian Countries. ESA Working Paper No. 08-03.
17. Djuric, I., Götz, L., Glauben, T., 2011. Influences of the Governmental Market Interventions on Wheat Markets in Serbia During the Food Crisis 2007/2008. Poster Paper, EAAE Congress " Change and Uncertainty Challenges for Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources" August 30 to September 2, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
18. Doornik, J.A., 2002. Object-Oriented Matrix Programming Using Ox. third ed. Timberlake Consultants Press and Oxford, London. (accessed 25.04.09). http://www.nuff.ox.ac.ukl/Users/Doornik.
19. EUROSTAT, 2010. Statistics, External Trade, Internet Database. (accessed 22.03.10). http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/.
20. EBRD, 2011. Unpublished Information.
21. Fackler P., Goodwin B. Spatial price analysis. Handbook of Agricultural Economics 2001, vol. 1B:971-1024. Elsevier, Amsterdam.
22. FAO/EBRD, 2008. Fighting Food Inflation through Sustainable Investment. London. (accessed 17.01.10). http://www.fao.org/newsroom/common/ecg/1000808/en/FAOEBRD.pdf.
23. Gardner B.L., Brooks K.M. Food prices and market integration in Russia: 1992-93. Am. J. Agric. Econ. 1994, 76(3):641-646.
24. Global Trade Information Services (GTIS), 2009. Global Trade Atlas, Columbia, USA.
25. Gluschenko, K., 2010. Price convergence and market integration in Russia. Reg. Sci. Urban Econ. 41(2), 160-172. (accessed 23.10.11). http://www.papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1726056.
26. Ghoshray A. Smooth transition effects in price transmission: the case of international wheat export prices. Econ. Lett. 2010, 106:169-171.
27. Ghoshray A. Asymmetric price adjustment and the world wheat market. J. Agric. Econ. 2002, 53(2):299-317.
28. Goychuk, K., Meyers, W., 2011. Black Sea Wheat Market Integration with the International Wheat Markets: Some Evidence from Co-integration Analysis, Selected Paper Prepared for Presentation at the AAEA & NAREA Joint Annual Meeting, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, July 24-26, 2011.
29. Greene W.H. Econometric Analysis 2003, Prentice Hall, New Jersey, USA. fifth ed.
30. Goodwin B.K., Grennes T.J., McCurdy C. Spatial price dynamics and integration of Russian food markets. J. Policy Reform 1999, 3(2):157-193.
31. Goodwin B.K., Piggott N.E. Spatial market integration in the presence of threshold effects. Am. J. Agric. Econ. 2001, 83:302-317.
32. Goodwin B.K., Grennes T.J. Tsarist Russia and the world wheat market. Explor. Econ. Hist. 1998, 35:405-430.
33. Grueninger M., von Cramon-Taubadel S. Competitive Agriculture or State Control: Ukraine's Response to the Global Food Crisis 2008, World Bank, Washington.
34. Hamilton J.D. A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series and the business cycle. Econometrica 1989, 57:357-384.
35. Harmgart, H., 2011. Financing Food - Challenges and Opportunities for the Transition Region. Keynote Presentation, IAMO-Forum 2011, June 23-24, Halle (Saale), Germany. http://www.iamo.de/fileadmin/uploads/forum2011/Keynote_presentations/Harmgart_IAMO_Forum_2011.pdf.
36. HGCA, 2009. Internet Database. (accessed 27.08.09). http://www.hgca.com.
37. Honaker, J., King, G., Blackwell, M., 2009. Amelia II: A Program for Missing Data. (accessed 09.02.10). http://www.gking.harvard.edu/amelia/.
38. Ihle R., von Cramon-Taubadel S., Zorya S. Markov-switching estimation of spatial maize price transmission processes between Tanzania and Kenya. Am. J. Agric. Econ. 2009, 91(5):1432-1439.
39. Krolzig, H.-M., 2006. MSVAR - An Ox Package Designed for the Econometric Modelling of Univariate and Multiple Time Series Subject to Shifts in Regime. Version 1.32a. (accessed 25.04.09). http://www.krolzig.co.uk/msvar.html.
40. Krolzig H.-M., Marcellino M., Mizon G.E. A Markov-switching vector equilibrium model of the UK labor market. Empirical Econ. 2002, 27:233-254.
41. Liefert W., Liefert O., Vocke G., Allen E. Former Soviet Union Region to play larger role in meeting world wheat needs. Amber Waves 2010, 8(2):12-19.
42. Liefert W., Liefert O. The Russian Federation. Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Europe's Transition Economies 2008, The World Bank, Washington, DC. K. Anderson, J. Swinnen (Eds.).
43. Loy, J.-P., Wehrheim, P., 1999. Spatial food market integration in Russia. In: Peters, G.H., von Braun J. (Eds.), Food Security, Diversification, and Resource Management: Refocusing the Role of Agriculture. Proceedings 23rd International Association of Agricultural Economists (IAAE) Conference in Sacramento. Ashgate Publishing Limited, pp. 421-431.
44. Martin, W., Anderson, K., 2011. Export Restrictions and Price Insulation during Commodity Price Booms, Policy Research Working Paper No. 5645, World Bank, Washington, DC. (accessed 09.04.11). http://www.papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1832161.
45. Mitra S., Josling T. Agricultural Export Restrictions: Welfare Implications and Trade Disciplines, IPC Position Paper Agricultural and Rural Development Policy Series 2009, International Food & Agricultural Trade Policy Council.
46. Nogués, J., 2008. The Domestic Impact of Export Restrictions: The Case of Argentina. IPC Position Paper - Agricultural and Rural Development Policy Series.
47. OECD-FAO, 2011. OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020. OECD, Paris, France.
48. Pesaran M.H., Shin, Y., 1999. An autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis. In: Strom, S., Holly, A., Diamond P. (Eds.), Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragner Frisch Centennial Symposium. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. (accessed 10.05.11). http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/faculty/pesaran/ardl.pdf.
49. Reuters, 2011. Ukraine, Russia Grain Export Curbs Deter Investors. (accessed 19.06.11) (accessed 15.05.11). http://www.cid.harvard.edu/Economia/papers/Rio%202008/Torero%20Robles%20nov%202008.pdf.
50. Sharma, R., 2011. Food Export Restrictions: Review of the 2007-2010 Experience and Considerations for Disciplining Restrictive Measures, FAO Commodity and Trade Policy Research Working Paper No. 32. FAO, Rome.
51. Stephens E., von Mayaba E., Cramon-Taubadel S., Barrett C.B. Spatial price adjustment with and without trade. Oxford Bull. Econ. Stat. 2012, 74(3):453-469.
52. Stock J., Watson M. A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems. Econometrica 1993, 61(4):783-820.
53. Teräsvirta T. Specification, estimation, and valuation of smooth transition autoregressive models. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 1994, 89:208-218.
54. Thompson S., Sul D., Bohl M. Spatial market efficiency and policy regime change: seemingly unrelated error correction model estimation. Am. J. Agric. Econ. 2002, 84(4):1042-1053.
55. USDA, 2009. Agricultural Market Data. Internet Database.
56. USDA GATS, 2010. Global Agricultural Trade System Online. Internet Database. (accessed 18.07.11). http://www.fas.usda.gov/gats/default.aspx.
57. USDA PSD, 2010. Production, Supply and Distribution. Internet Database. (accessed 18.07.11). http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdquery.aspx.
58. USDA, 2008. Commodity Intelligence Report July 2008: Russia: Grain Production Prospects and Siberia Trip Report. (accessed 18.07.11). http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2008/08/rs_20Aug2008/.
59. Welton G. The Impact of Russia's 2010 Grain Export Ban 2011, Oxfam Research Report.
60. Yu T.-H., Tokgoz S., Wailes E., Chavez E. A quantitative analysis of trade policy responses to higher world agricultural commodity prices. Food Policy 2011, 36(5):545-561.