2010-1980 Variability in U.K. surface wind climate

Journal of Climate

Volumn 26, Issue 4, 2013, Pages 1172-1191

  Earl, Nick ^a   Dorling, Steve ^a   Hewston, Richard ^b   Von Glasow, Roland ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF EAST ANGLIA   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DECADAL VARIABILITY; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY; INTERNATIONAL STUDIES; INTRA-ANNUAL VARIABILITY; NORTH EAST ATLANTIC; RAYLEIGH DISTRIBUTIONS; WIND DIRECTION MEASUREMENT; WIND ENERGY INDUSTRY;

WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION; WIND POWER;

WIND EFFECTS;

ANNUAL VARIATION; CLIMATE VARIATION; GUST; SPATIAL VARIATION; SURFACE WIND; TIMESCALE; WEIBULL THEORY; WIND POWER; WIND VELOCITY;

UNITED KINGDOM;

EID: 84872301651     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00026.1     Document Type: Article

References (58)

1. Atkinson,N., K.Harman,M.Lynn, A. Schwarz, andA. Tindal, 2006: Long-term windspeed trends in northwestern Europe. Garrad Hassan Tech. Rep., 4 pp. [Available online at http://www.glgarradhassan. com/assets/downloads/Long_term_wind_speed_ trends_in_northwestern_Europe.pdf.]
2. Barriopedro,D.,R.García-Herrera, A. R. Lupo, and E.Hernández, 2006: A climatology of Northern Hemisphere blocking. J. Climate, 19, 1042-1063.
3. Barriopedro,D.,R.García-Herrera, and R. Huth, 2008: Solar modulation of Northern Hemisphere winter blocking. J. Geophys. Res., 113, D14118, doi:10.1029/2008JD009789.
4. Boccard, N., 2009: Capacity factor of wind power realized values vs. estimates. Energy Policy, 37, 2679-2688.
5. Brayshaw, D. J., A. Troccoli, R. Fordham, and J. Methven, 2011: The impact of large scale atmospheric circulation patterns on wind power generation and its potential predictability: A case study over the U.K.. Renewable Energy, 36, 2087-2096.
6. Brown, S., P. Boorman, R. McDonald, and J. Murphy, 2009: Interpretation for use of surface windspeed projections from the 11-member Met Office Regional Climate Model ensemble. UKCP09 Tech. Note, 22 pp. [Available online at http:// ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/media.jsp?mediaid=87947& filetype=pdf.]
7. Cattiaux, J., R. Vautard, C. Cassou, P. Yiou, V. Masson-Delmotte, and F. Codron, 2010: Winter 2010 in Europe: A cold extreme in a warming climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L20704, doi:10.1029/2010GL044613.
8. Celik, A. N., 2004: A statistical analysis of wind power density based on the Weibull and Rayleigh models at the southern region of Turkey. Renewable Energy, 29, 593-604.
9. Cheng, X., S. Xie, H. Tokinaga, and Y. Du, 2011: Interannual variability of high-wind occurrence over the North Atlantic. J. Climate, 24, 6515-6527.
10. Dacre, H. F., and S. L. Gray, 2009: The spatial distribution and evolution characteristics of North Atlantic cyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 99-115.
11. Forster, D.,M. Benzie, S.Winne, and R.Milnes, 2011: Evaluation of the climate risks for meeting the UK's carbon budgets. AEA Technology plc, Rep. for Committee on Climate Change ED56732- 3, 151 pp. [Available online at http://hmccc. s3.amazonaws.com/Progress%202011/ED56732_FinalReport_ FINALv2.pdf.]
12. Gronas, S., 1995: The seclusion intensification of the New Year's Day storm 1992. Tellus, 47A, 733-746.
13. Harrison, G., L. C. Cradden, and J. P. Chick, 2008: Preliminary assessment of climate change impacts on the U.K. onshore wind energy resource. Energy Sources, 30, 1286-1299.
14. Hawkins, E., and R. Sutton, 2009: The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 90, 1095-1107.
15. Hess, P., and H. Brezowsky, 1952: Katalog der Grosswetterlagen Europas. Berichte das Deutschen Wetterdienstes in der USZone 33, 39 pp.
16. Hewston, R., 2008:Weather, climate and the insurance sector. Ph.D. dissertation, University of East Anglia, 312 pp.
17. Hewston, R., and S. R. Dorling, 2011: An analysis of observed maximum wind gusts in the U.K.. J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn., 99, 845- 856, doi:10.1016/j.jweia.2011.06.004.
18. Hurrell, J. W., Y. Kushnir, G. Ottersen, and M. Visbeck, 2003: The North Atlantic Oscillation: Climate Significance and Environmental Impact. Geophys. Monogr., Vol. 134, Amer. Geophys. Union, 279 pp.
19. Irwin, J. S., 1979:A theoretical variation of the wind profile powerlaw exponent as a function of surface roughness and stability. Atmos. Environ., 13, 191-194.
20. James, P. M., 2007: An objective classification method for Hess and Brezowsky Grosswetterlagen over Europe. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 88, 17-42.
21. Jamil, M., S. Parsa, and M. Majidi, 1995: Wind power statistics and an evaluation of wind energy density. Renewable Energy, 6, 623-628.
22. Jenkinson, A. F., and F. P. Collison, 1977: An initial climatology of gales over the North Sea. Met Office, Synoptic Climatology Branch Memo. 62, 18 pp.
23. Jones, P. D., M. Hulme, and K. R. Briffa, 1993: A comparison of Lamb circulation types with an objective classification scheme. Int. J. Climatol., 13, 655-663.
24. Jones, P. D., T. Jonsson, and D. Wheeler, 1997: Extension to the North Atlantic oscillation using early instrumental pressure observations from Gibraltar and south-west Iceland. Int. J. Climatol., 17, 1433-1450.
25. Jung, T., F. Vitart, L. Ferranti, and J. Morcrette, 2011: Origin and predictability of the extreme negative and NAO winter of 2009/10. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L07701, doi:10.1029/ 2011GL046786.
26. Justus, C. G., W. R. Hargraves, and A. Yalcin, 1976: Nationwide assessment of potential output from wind powered generators. J. Appl. Meteor., 15, 673-678.
27. Klawa, M., and U. Ulbrich, 2003: A model for the estimation of storm losses and the identification of severe winter storms in Germany. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 3, 725-732.
28. Kremer, E., 1998: Largest claims reinsurance premiums for the Weibullmodel. Blätter Dt.Ges. Versicherungsmath., 23, 279-284.
29. Lockwood, M., R. G. Harrison, T. Woolings, and S. K. Solanki, 2010: Are cold winters in Europe associated with low solar activity? Environ. Res. Lett., 5, 024001, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ 5/2/024001.
30. Lockwood, M., R. G. Harrison,M. J.Owens, L. Barnard, T.Woollings, and F. Steinhilber, 2011: The solar influence on the probability of relatively cold U.K. winters in the future. Environ. Res. Lett., 6, 034004, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/3/034004.
31. Malmquist, D. L., Ed., 1999: European windstorms and the North Atlantic Oscillation: Impacts, characteristics, and predictability. RPI Series 2, Risk Prediction Initiative/Bermuda Biological Station for Research, 21 pp.
32. McCallum, E., 1990: The Burns' day storm, 25 January 1990. Weather, 45, 166-173.
33. Motta, M., R. J. Barthelmie, and P. Vølund, 2005: The influence of non-logarithmic wind speed profiles on potential power output at Danish offshore sites. Wind Energy, 8, 219-236.
34. Munich Re, 2002: Winter storms in Europe (II): Analysis of 1999 losses and loss potentials.MunichReinsuranceCompany, 72 pp.
35. Osborn, T. J., 2011: Winter 2009/2010 temperatures and a recordbreaking North Atlantic Oscillation index. Weather, 66, 19-21.
36. Oswald, J., M. Raine, and A. Ashraf-Ball, 2008:Will British weather provide reliable electricity? Energy Policy, 36, 3212-3225.
37. Petersen, E. L., N. J. Mortensen, L. Landberg, J. Højstrup, and P. F. Helmut, 1998: Wind power meteorology. Part I: Climate and turbulence. Wind Energy, 1, 25-45.
38. Pö yry, 2011: The challenges of intermittency in North West European power markets. Summary Rep., 16 pp.
39. Pryor, S. C., and R. J. Barthelmie, 2010: Climate change impacts on wind energy: A review. Renewable Sustainable Energy Rev., 14, 430-437.
40. Pryor, S. C.,M. Nielsen, R. J. Barthelmie, and J. Mann, 2004: Can satellite sampling of offshore wind speeds realistically represent wind speed distributions? Part II: Quantifying uncertainties associated with sampling strategy and distribution fitting methods. J. Appl. Meteor., 43, 739-750.
41. Pryor, S. C., R. J. Barthelmie, N. E. Clausen, M. Drew, I. MacKellar, and E. Kjellström, 2012: Analyses of possible changes in intense and extreme windspeeds over northern Europe under climate change scenarios. Climate Dyn., 38, 189-208, doi:10.1007/ s00382-010-0955-3.
42. Rodwell, M. J., D. P. Rowell, and C. K. Folland, 1999: Oceanic forcing of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and European climate. Nature, 398, 320-323.
43. Scaife, A. A., and Coauthors, 2012: Climate change projections and stratosphere-troposphere interaction. Climate Dyn., 38, 2089- 2097, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1080-7.
44. Seguro, J. V., and T. W. Lambert, 2000: Modern estimation of the parameters of the Weibull wind speed distribution for wind energy analysis. J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn., 85, 75-84.
45. Serreze, M. C., F. Carse, R. G. Barry, and J. C. Rogers, 1997: Icelandic low cyclone activity: Climatological features, linkages with the NAO, and relationships with recent changes in the Northern Hemisphere circulation. J. Climate, 10, 453-464.
46. Sinden, G., 2007: Characteristics of the U.K. wind resource: Longterm patterns and relationship to electricity demand. Energy Policy, 35, 112-127.
47. Swiss Re, 2011: Natural catastrophes and man-made disasters in 2010: A year of devastating and costly events. Sigma Rep. 1/ 2011, 36 pp. [Available online at http://media.swissre.com/ documents/sigma1_2011_en.pdf.]
48. Takle, E. S., and J. M. Brown, 1978: Note on the use of Weibull statistics to characterize wind-speed data. J. Appl. Meteor., 17, 556-559.
49. Troccoli, A., K. Muller, P. Coppin, R. Davy, C. Russell, and A. L. Hirsch, 2012: Long-term wind speed trends over Australia. J. Climate, 25, 170-183.
50. UKMO, cited 2011: Met Office surface data users guide. [Available online at http://badc.nerc.ac.uk/data/ukmo-midas/ukmo_guide. html.]
51. Ulbrich, U., G. C. Leckebusch, and J. G. Pinto, 2009: Extra-tropical cyclones in the present and future climate: A review. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 96, 117-131.
52. Vautard, R., J. Cattiaux, P. Yiou, J. Thépaut, and P. Ciais, 2010: Northern Hemisphere atmospheric stilling partly attributed to an increase in surface roughness. Nat. Geosci., 3, 756-761, doi:10.1038/ngeo979.
53. Wang, X. L., F. W. Zwiers, V. R. Swail, and Y. Feng, 2009: Trends and variability of storminess in the northeast Atlantic region, 1874-2007. Climate Dyn., 33, 1179-1195.
54. Weisser, D., 2003: A wind energy analysis of Grenada: An estimation using the 'Weibull' density function. Renewable Energy, 28, 1803-1812.
55. Wheeler, D., and J. Mayes, 1997: Regional Climates of the British Isles. Routledge, 437 pp.
56. Wilks, D. S., 1990: Maximum likelihood estimation for the gamma distribution using data containing zeros. J. Climate, 3, 1495-1501.
57. Woollings, T., 2010: Dynamical influences on European climate: An uncertain future. Philos. Trans. Roy. Soc., 368A, 3733- 3756, doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0040.
58. Woollings, T., M. Lockwood, G. Masato, C. Bell, and L. Gray, 2010: Enhanced signature of solar variability in Eurasian winter climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L20805, doi:10.1029/2010GL044601.