Climate change and population growth in timor leste: Implications for food security

Ambio

Volumn 41, Issue 8, 2012, Pages 823-840

  Molyneux, Nicholas ^a   Da Cruz, Gil Rangel ^b   Williams, Robert L ^a,c   Andersen, Rebecca ^c   Turner, Neil C ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA   (Australia)

^b Directorate of Agriculture and Horticulture

^c Seeds of Life Fini ba Moris

Author keywords

Climate change; Food security; Population increase; Shifting agriculture; Small holder farmers; Timor Leste

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; CROP YIELD; CULTIVAR; ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE; FARMING SYSTEM; FERTILIZER APPLICATION; FODDER; FOOD SECURITY; MALNUTRITION; MANAGEMENT PRACTICE; MAPPING; POPULATION GROWTH;

LESSER SUNDA ISLANDS; SUNDA ISLES; TIMOR; TIMOR-LESTE;

ANIMALIA; ARACHIS HYPOGAEA; IPOMOEA BATATAS; MANIHOT ESCULENTA; ZEA MAYS;

ARTICLE; CLIMATE CHANGE; HUMAN; POPULATION GROWTH; TIMOR-LESTE;

CLIMATE CHANGE; EAST TIMOR; HUMANS; POPULATION GROWTH;

EID: 84872150816     PISSN: 00447447     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s13280-012-0287-0     Document Type: Review

References (79)

1. ACIAR. 2004. CS1/2000/160 Second Technical Report, January-December 2003, Seeds of Life-East Timor. Canberra: Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research.
2. Allan, W. 1965. The African husbandman. Edinburgh: Oliver & Boyd.
3. Alves, A.A.C. 2002. Cassava botany and physiology. In Cassava: Biology, production and utilisation, eds. R.J. Hillcocks, J.M. Thresh, and A.C. Bellotti, 67-89. Wallingford: CAB International.
4. ARPAPET. 1996. Agro-climatic zones of East Timor. Dili, Timor, Indonesia: Indonesia-Australia Development Corporation. Agricultural and Regional Planning Assistance Program East Timor, Kantor Wilayah Departmen Pertanian Propinsi Timor Timur, Jalan Estrada de Balide.
5. Barnett, J., S. Dessai, and R.N. Jones. 2007. Vulnerability to climate variability and change in East Timor. AMBIO 36: 372-378.
6. Battacharjee, R., B.R. Natare, E. Otoo, and P.Z. Yanda. 2011. Regional impacts of climate change: Africa. In Crop adaptation to climate change, eds. S.S. Yadav, R. Redden, J.L. Hatfield, and H. Lotze-Campen. Ames, IO: ISUP/Wiley.
7. Ben-Asher, J., Y. Garcia, A. Garcia, and G. Hoogenboom. 2008. Effect of high temperature on photosynthesis and transpiration of sweet corn (Zea mays L. var. rugosa). Photosynthetica 46: 595-603.
8. Borges, L.F., A. do Rosario Ferreira, D. Da Silva, R. Williams, R. Andersen, A. Dalley, B. Monaghan, H. Nesbitt, et al. 2009. Improving food security through agricultural research and development in Timor-Leste: A country emerging from conflict. Food Security 1: 403-412.
9. Boserup, E. 1965. The conditions of agricultural growth: The economics of agrarian change under population pressure. Chicago: Aldine.
10. Bouma, G., and H. Kobryn. 2004. Vegetation cover change in East Timor, 1989-1999. National Resources Forum 28: 1-12.
11. Bowen, W.T., R.B. Diamond, U. Singh, and T.P. Thompson. 2005. Farmer and environmental benefits derived from deep placement of urea briquettes for flooded rice in Bangladesh. In Proceedings of third international nitrogen conference, contributed papers, eds. Z. Zhu, K. Minami, and J. Galloway, 71-76. Monmouth Junction, NJ: Science Press USA Inc.
12. Buckles, D., B. Trimophe, and G. Sain. 1998. Cover crops in hillside agriculture, farmer innovation with Mucuna. IRDC/CIMMYT, 230.
13. CAVR. 2005. Chega! The report for the commission for reception, truth and reconciliation in Timor-Leste (CAVR) Rua Balide, PO Box 144, Dili. Timor-Leste.
14. Cao, S., L. Chen, Q. Feng, and Z. Liu. 2007. Soft-riser bench terrace design for the hilly loess region of Shaanxi Province, China. Landscape and Urban Planning 80: 184-191.
15. Christensen, J.H., B. Hewitson, A. Busuioc, A. Chen, X. Gao, I. Held, R. Jones, R.K. Kolli, et al. 2007. Regional climate projections. In Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, eds. S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor, and H.L. Miller, 847-941. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
16. Cooper, P., K.P.C. Rao, P. Singh, J. Dime, P.S. Traore, P. Dixit, and S.J. Twomlow. 2009. Farming with current and future climate risk: Advancing a 'Hypothesis of Hope' for rainfed agriculture in the semi-arid tropics. Journal of SAT Agricultural Research 7. ejournal.icrisat.org/aespaperv7.
17. DaMatta, F.M. 2004. Ecophysiological constraints on the production of shaded and unshaded coffee: A review. Field Crops Research 86: 99-114.
18. Datt, G., M. Cumpa, V. Nehru, N. Roberts, A. Franco, and S. Dhar. 2008. Timor-Leste: Poverty in a Young Nation. Dili, Timor-Leste: Ministe'ro das Finanças and Direcça?o Nacional de Estati'stica, and Washington: World Bank.
19. Doanh, L.Q., and L.V. Tiem. 2003. Feasible solutions for sustainable land use in sloping areas. In Integrated watershed management for land and water conservation and sustainable agricultural production in Asia, proceedings of the ADB-ICRISAT-IWMI Annual Project Review and Planning Meeting, Hanoi, Vietnam, December 2001, eds. S.P. Wani, A.R. Maglinao, A. Ramakrishna, and T.J. Rego, 42-49. Patancheru: International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics.
20. Dupuis, L., and C. Dumas. 1990. Influence of temperature stress on in vitro fertilization and heat shock protein synthesis in maize (Zea mays L.) reproductive systems. Plant Physiology 94: 665-670.
21. FAO. 2007. Special report FAO/WFP crop and food supply assessment mission to Timor-Leste. FAO global information and early warning system on food and agriculture world food programme.
22. FAO corporate document repository. Economic and Social Development Department.
23. FAO. 2010. Global watch GIEWS. Timor Leste. The food and agriculture organisation of the United Nations.
24. FAOSTAT. 2010. Production, trade and food security statistics. http://faostat.fao.org. Accessed 2 Dec 2010.
25. Fox, J.J. 2003. Drawing from the past to prepare for the future: Responding to the challenges of food security in East Timor. In Agriculture: New directions for a new nation East Timor (Timor-Leste), ACIAR Proceedings No. 113, eds. H. Da Costa, C. Piggin, C.J. Cruz, and J.J. Fox, 105-114. Canberra: Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research.
26. Gao, W.H., and X.P. Deng. 2007. Techniques of effective conservation and efficient use of water on terraced land in Yan'an city. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation 27: 225-229. (In Chinese, English abstract).
27. Garrity, D.P. 1996. Tree-crop-soil interactions on slopes. In Tree-crops interactions a physiological approach, eds. C.K. Ong, and P. Huxley, 19. Wallingford: CAB International.
28. Gleadow, R.M., J.R. Evans, S. McCaffery, and T.R. Cavagnaro. 2009. Growth and nutritive value of cassava (Manihot esculenta Cranz.) are reduced when grown in elevated CO2. Plant Biology 11: 76-82. doi:10.1111/j.1438-8677.2009. 00238.x.
29. Gordon, H.B., L.D. Rotstayn, J.L. McGregor, M.R. Dix, E.A. Kowalczyk, S.P. O'Farrell, J.L. Waterman, A.C. Hirst, et al. 2002. The CSIRO Mk3 climate system model. Aspendale: CSIRO Atmospheric Research.
30. Herrero, M.P., and R.R. Johnson. 1980. High temperature stress and pollen viability in maize. Crop Science 20: 796-800.
31. Hijmans, R.J., L. Guarino, M. Cruz, and E. Rojas. 2001. Computer tools for spatial analysis of plant genetic resources data: 1. DIVA-GIS. Plant Genetic Resources Newsletter 127: 15-19.
32. Hijmans, R.J., S.E. Cameron, J.L. Parra, P.G. Jones, and A. Jarvis. 2005. Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology 25: 1965-1978.
33. Howden, S.M., S.J. Crimp, and R.M. Nelson. 2010. Australian agriculture in a climate of change. In GREENHOUSE 2009: Climate change and resources, eds. I. Jubb, and P. Holper, CSIRO Publishing.
34. Huda, S., V. Sadras, S. Wani, and X. Mei. 2010. Food security and climate change in the Asia-Pacific region: Evaluating mismatch between crop development and water availability. 9th European IFSA Symposium, 4-7 July 2010, in Vienna, Austria.
35. Hunt, R.C. 2000. Labor productivity and agricultural development: Boserup revisited. Human Ecology 28: 251-277.
36. IPCC. 2007. Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, 94. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
37. Jagadish, S.V.K., P.Q. Craufurd, and T.R. Wheeler. 2007. High temperature stress and spikelet fertility in rice (Oryza sativa L.). Journal of Experimental Botany 58: 1627-1635.
38. Kakani, V.G., P.V.V. Prasad, P.Q. Craufurd, and T.R. Wheeler. 2002. Response of in vitro pollen germination and pollen tube growth of groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.) genotypes to temperature. Plant Cell and Environment 25: 1651-1661.
39. Kirono, D. 2010. Climate change in Timor Leste-a brief overview on future climate projections, 28. Aspendale: CSIRO National Research Flagships.
40. Kunwar, B., H.A. Neves, W. Tambun, H. Koopman, R. Delarosa, and C. Bascilio. 2010. Proceedings of national workshop on sharing food security good practices in Timor Leste. Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries and European Commission, INGOs Food Security Coordination Group.
41. Lefroy, R.D.B. 2008. Australian agronomy abroad. In Global issues paddock action. Proceedings of the 14th Australian agronomy conference. September 2008, Adelaide, South Australia. www. regional.org.au/au/asa/2008/plenary/ agronomyabroad/5942-lefroyrdb. Accessed 2 Dec 2010.
42. Ludwig F., and S. Asseng. 2006. Climate change impacts on wheat production in a Mediterranean environment in Western Australia. Agricultural Systems 90: 159-179.
43. Matsui, T., K. Omasa, and T. Horie. 2001. The difference in sterility due to high temperature during the flowering period among japonica rice varieties. Plant Production Science 4: 90-93.
44. Mazvimavi, K., S. Twomlow, P. Belder, and L. Hove. 2008. An Assessment of the Sustainable Uptake of Conservation Farming in Zimbabwe. Global Theme on Agroecosystems Report No. 19, 51. Bulawayo: International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics.
45. McWilliam, A. 2003. New beginnings in East Timorese forest management. Journal of Southeast Asian Studies 34: 307-327.
46. Nakagawa, H., T. Horie, and T. Matsui. 2002. Effects of climate change on rice production and adaptive technologies. In Modelling the impact of climate change on rice production in Asia, eds. T.W. Mew, D.S. Brar, S. Peng, D. Dawe, and B. Hardy, Wallingford, Los Banos: CABI, International Rice Research Institute. National Statistics Directorate. 2005. Population Projections 2004-2050. Analysis of census results, report 1. General population census of Timor-Leste 2004, Dili, Timor Leste, 78. National Statistics Directorate.
47. National Statistics Directorate. 2010. Population and housing census 2010: Preliminary results, Dili, Timor Leste, 15. National Statistics Directorate.
48. Nunes, M. 2001. The natural resources of East Timor: A physical, geographical and ecological review. Conference on sustainable development in East Timor, eds. R. Anderson, and C. Deutsch, Dili, East Timor: Timor Aid Location.
49. Oxfam, 2008. Oxfam Australia Timor-Leste Food Security Baseline Survey Report. (Executive Summary, paragraph 3) http://www. oxfam.org.nz/resources/ timor-leste%20food-security-baselinesurvey. pdf. Accessed 2 Dec 2010.
50. Patterson, D.T., J.K. Westbrook, R.J.V. Joyce, P.D. Lingren, and J. Rogasik. 1999. Weeds, insects and diseases. Climate Change 43: 711-727.
51. Phillips, D.L. 2000. Social and economic conditions in East Timor. In International conflict resolution program, School of International Affairs Columbia University, New York, eds. J. Pederson, and M. Arnerberg. Oslo: Fafo Institute of Applied Social Science.
52. Piggin, C., and B. Palmer. 2003. An introduction to the ACIAR project "Seeds of Life-East Timor". ACIAR Proceedings 113: 65-71.
53. Prasad, P.V.V., P.Q. Craufurd, R.J. Summerfield, and T.R. Wheeler. 2000. Effects of short episodes of heat stress on flower production and fruit-set of groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.). Journal of Experimental Botany 51: 777-784.
54. Prasad, P.V.V., P.Q. Craufurd, V.G. Kakani, T.R. Wheeler, and K.J. Boote. 2001. Influence of high temperature during pre-and postanthesis stages of floral development on fruit-set and pollen germination in peanut. Australian Journal of Plant Physiology 28: 233-240.
55. Prasad, P.V.V., K.J. Boote, L.H. Allen, and J.M.G. Thomas. 2003. Super-optimal temperatures are detrimental to peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.) reproductive processes and yield at ambient and elevated carbon dioxide. Global Change Biology 9: 1775-1787.
56. Prasad, P.V.V., K.J. Boote, L.H. Allen, J.E. Sheehy, and J.M.G. Thomas. 2006. Species, ecotype and cultivar differences in spikelet fertility and harvest index of rice in response to high temperature stress. Field Crops Research 95: 398-411.
57. Richards, P. 1985. Indigenous agricultural revolution. London: Hutchison.
58. Russell, W.M.S. 1988. Population swidden farming and the tropical environment. Population and Environment 10: 77-94.
59. Satake, T., and S. Yoshida. 1978. High temperature induced sterility in indica rices at flowering. Japanese Journal of Crop Science 47: 6-17.
60. Sawadogo-Kaboré, S., M. Fosu, R. Tabo, R. Kanton, S. Buah, A. Bationo, S. Ouédraogo, S. Pale, et al. 2009. Improving crop productivity and farmer income using fertilizer microdosing and the warrantage system in the Volta Basin. International Forum on Water and Food II, Ethiopia, Nov. 2009. Vol. II, 30, PA014.
61. Schoper, J.B., R.K. Lambert, B.L. Vasilas, and M.E. Westgate. 1987. Plant factors controlling seed set in maize. Plant Physiology 83: 121-125.
62. Seeds of Life. 2007. Annual research report, 2006. www. seedsoflifetimor.org. Accessed 1 Dec 2010.
63. Seeds of Life. 2010a. Annual research report, 2009. www. seedsoflifetimor.org. Accessed 1 Dec 2010.
64. Seeds of Life. 2010b. Predicted changes to rainfall and temperature in Timor Leste due to climate change and its impact on agriculture, 8. Comoro Nicolao, Dili: Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries.
65. Shepherd, C.J. 2009. Participation, authority, and distributive equity in East Timor development. East Asian Science, Technology and Society: An International Journal. doi:10.1007/s12880-009-9098-1
66. Singh, U., P. Wilkens, I. Jahan, J. Sanabria, and S. Kovach. 2010. Enhanced efficiency fertilizers. Proceedings of the world congress of soil science, soil solutions for a changing world 1-6 August 2010, Brisbane, Australia. Published on DVD.
67. Soares, F.S. 2009. Progress report. (E-mail: Flavianosrs@yahoo. com.au).
68. Turner, N.C., and R. Meyer. 2011. Synthesis of regional impacts and global agricultural adjustments. In Crop adaptation to climate change, eds. S.S. Yadav, R. Redden, J.L. Hatfield, H. Lotze-Campen, and A.E. Hall, 156-165. Chichester: Wiley/Blackwell.
69. Turner, B.L., R.Q. Hanham, and A.V. Portararo. 1977. Population pressure and agricultural intensity. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 67: 384-396.
70. Turner, N.C., N. Molyneux, S. Yang, Y. Xiong, and K.H.M. Siddique. 2011. Climate change in south-west Australia and north-west China: Challenges and opportunities for crop production. Crop and Pasture Science 62: 445-456.
71. United Nations Population Division. 2007. World population prospects: The 2006 revision. New York: United Nations.
72. Vadez, V., J. Kholova, S. Choudhary, P. Zindy, M. Terrier, L. Krishnamurth, P.R. Kumar, and N.C. Turner. 2011. Whole plant response to drought under climate change. In Crop adaptation to climate change, eds. S.S. Yadav, R. Redden, J.L. Hatfield, H. Lotze-Campen, and A.E. Hall, 186-197. Chichester: Wiley/ Blackwell.
73. Visser, M.E., and C. Both. 2005. Shifts in phenology due to global climate change: The need for a yardstick. Proceedings of the Royal Society B 272: 2561-2569. doi:10.1098/rspb.2005.3356.
74. Wargiono, N., N. Richana, and H. Hidajat. 2002. Contribution of cassava leaves used as a vegetable to improve human nutrition in Indonesia. Proceedings of the VII Asian Cassava Research Workshop Oct 28-Nov 1, 2002, 5.
75. WFP/FAO. 2003. Special report. FAO/WFP crop and food supply assessment mission to Timor-Leste, 1 June 2003. http://reliefweb. int/sites/reliefweb.int/ files/resources/E79C5AC38A8E7ABCC1256 D50003C3DA0-fao-tls-01jun.pdf. Accessed online 3 Feb 2011.
76. WFP. 2005. Food insecurity and vulnerability analysis Timor Leste. VAM unit. The United Nations World Food Programme. Timor Leste 2005. http://documents.wfp.org/stellent/groups/public/ documents/vam/wfp067434.pdf. Accessed 20 Nov 2010.
77. WFP. 2010. Timor Leste Country report. Projected 2011 Needs. http:// home.wfp.org/stellent/groups/public/documents/op-reports/wfp228586. pdf. Accessed 18 Nov 2010.
78. World Bank. 2007. World development report 2008. Agriculture for development, Washington, DC, World Bank, 365.
79. World Bank. 2008. Policy note on population growth and its implications in Timor-Leste. Washington, DC, World Bank, 55.