Linking climate trends to population dynamics in the baltic ringed seal: Impacts of historical and future winter temperatures

Ambio

Volumn 41, Issue 8, 2012, Pages 865-872

  Sundqvist, Lisa ^a   Harkonen, Tero ^b   Svensson, Carl Johan ^a   Harding, Karin C ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF GOTHENBURG   (Sweden)

^b SWEDISH MUSEUM OF NATURAL HISTORY   (Sweden)

Author keywords

Global warming; Habitat loss; Ice coverage; Marine mammals; Phoca hispida; Pup survival

Indexed keywords

ANTHROPOGENIC EFFECT; CLIMATOLOGY; GLOBAL WARMING; HABITAT CONSERVATION; HABITAT LOSS; NUMERICAL MODEL; PINNIPED; POPULATION DYNAMICS; POPULATION SIZE; SEA ICE; SUBPOPULATION; TEMPERATURE EFFECT; TWENTY FIRST CENTURY;

ANIMAL; ARTICLE; BALTIC STATES; CLIMATE CHANGE; COLD; PHOCA; PHYSIOLOGY; POPULATION DYNAMICS; SEASON;

ANIMALS; BALTIC STATES; CLIMATE CHANGE; COLD TEMPERATURE; POPULATION DYNAMICS; SEALS, EARLESS; SEASONS;

ATLANTIC OCEAN; BALTIC SEA;

MAMMALIA; PHOCA HISPIDA;

EID: 84872061321     PISSN: 00447447     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s13280-012-0334-x     Document Type: Article

References (43)

1. Axell, L., and K. Lindquist. 2007. Reconstruction of annual maximum ice extent in the Baltic Sea 1660-2005. Berichte des Bundesamtes fu?r Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographie 42: 79-80.
2. Bowen, W.D., S.J. Iverson, D.J. Boness, and O.T. Oftedal. 2001. Foraging effort, food intake and lactation performance depend on maternal mass in a small phocid seal. Functional Ecology 15: 325-334.
3. Caswell, H. 2001. Matrix population models: Construction, analysis, and interpretation, 2nd edn, 722. Sunderland: Sinauer.
4. Fay, F.H. 1974. The role of ice in the ecology of marine mammals of the Bering Sea. In Oceanography of the Bering Sea, ed. D.W. Hood, and E.J. Kelley, 383-399. Fairbanks: Institute of Marine Science, University of Alaska.
5. Fedoseev, G.A. 1975. Ecotypes of the ringed seal (Pusa hispida schreber, 1777) and their reproductive capabilities. Rapports et Proces-verbaux des Réunions. Conseil International pour l'Éxploration de la Mer 169: 156-160.
6. Ferguson, S.H., I. Stirling, and P. McLoughlin. 2005. Climate change and ringed seal (Phoca hispida) recruitment in western Hudson Bay. Marine Mammal Science 21: 121-135.
7. Freitas, C., K.M. Kovacs, R.A. Ims, and C. Lydersen. 2008. Predicting habitat use by ringed seals (Phoca hispida) in a warming Arctic. Ecological Modelling 217: 19-32.
8. Gadjiev, D.B. and T.M.Eybatov. 1995. Morphologia zybnovo apparata lastonogix. ISBN S-8066-1881-1, eds. Gadjiev D.B. and Eybatov T.M. (In Russian) "Dental morphology of Pinnipeds (comparative, age related, applied odonthology of the Caspian seal". Baku, Elm, 173 pp.
9. Grebmeier, J.M., J.E. Overland, S.E. Moore, E.V. Farley, E.C. Carmack, L.W. Cooper, K.E. Frey, J.H. Helle, et al. 2006. A major ecosystem shift in the northern Bering Sea. Science 311: 1461-1464.
10. Hammill, M.O., C. Lydersen, M. Ryg, and T.G. Smith. 1991. Lactation in the ringed seal (Phoca hispida). Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Science 48: 2471-2476.
11. Harding, K.C., and T. Harkonen. 1999. Development in the Baltic grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) and ringed seal (Phoca hispida) populations during the 20th century. AMBIO 28: 619-627.
12. Harding, K.C., T. Harkonen, B. Helander, and O. Karlsson. 2007. Status of Baltic grey seals: Population assessment and extinction risk. NAMMCO Scientific Publications 6: 33-56.
13. Harkonen, T., and M.-P. Heide-Jørgensen. 1990. Comparative life histories of East Atlantic and other harbour seal populations. Ophelia 32: 211-235.
14. Harkonen, T., O. Stenman, M. Jussi, I. Jussi, R. Sagitiv, and M. Verevkin. 1998. Population size and distribution of the Baltic ringed seal (Phoca hispida botnica). NAMMCO Scientific Publications 1: 167-180.
15. Harkonen, T., K.C. Harding, and M.-P. Heide-Jørgenssen. 2002. Rates of increase in age structured populations, a lesson from the European harbour seal. Canadian Journal of Zoology 80: 1498-1510.
16. Harkonen, T., K.C. Harding, S. Goodman, and K. Johannesson. 2005. Colonization history of the Baltic harbor seals: Integrating archaeological, behavioral and genetic data. Marine Mammal Science 21: 695-716.
17. Harkonen, T., M. Jussi, I. Jussi, M. Verevkin, L. Dmitrieva, E. Helle, R. Sagitov, and K.C. Harding. 2008a. Seasonal activity budget of adult Baltic ringed seals (Phoca hispida botnica). PLoS One 3: E2006. doi:10.1371/journal. pone.0002006.
18. Harkonen, T., M. Jussi, M. Baimukanov, A. Bignert, L. Dmitrieva, Y. Kasimbekov, M. Verevkin, S. Wilson, et al. 2008b. Pup production and breeding distribution of the Caspian seal (Phoca caspica) in relation to human impacts. AMBIO 37: 356-361.
19. Helle, E. 1977. On the reproductive success in the Bothnian Bay population of the ringed seal and future prospects for the species. Finnish Game Research 37: 32-35.
20. Helle, E. 1980. Reproduction, size and structure of the Baltic ringed seal population of the Bothnian Bay. PhD Thesis. Acta Universitatis Ouluensis series A Scientiae rerum naturalium No. 106 Biologica No. 11, 47 pp.
21. Jussi, M., T. Harkonen, E. Helle, and I. Jussi. 2008. Decreasing ice coverage will reduce the reproductive success of Baltic grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) females. AMBIO 37: 80-85.
22. Kunnasranta, M., H. Hyvarinen, T. Sipila, and N. Medvedev. 2001. Breeding habitat and lair structure of the ringed seal (Phoca hispida ladogensis) in northern Lake Ladoga in Russia. Polar Biology 24: 171-174.
23. Karlsson, O. and B.M. Backlin. 2009. Thin seals in the Baltic Sea. Environmental conditions in Swedish coastal waters, ed Viklund K. The Swedish Environmental Protection Agency. Havet 2009: 86-89 (In swedish).
24. Krylov, V.I. 1990. Ecology of the Caspian seal. Finnish Game Research 47: 32-36.
25. Kjellstrom, E., L. Barring, S. Gollvik, U. Hansso, C. Jones, P. Samuelsso, M. Rummukainen, A. Ullerstig et al. 2005. A 140-year simulation of European climate with the new version of the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric climate model (RCA3). SMHI Reports Meteorology and Climatology No. 108, SMHI, Norrkoping, Sweden, 54 pp.
26. Laidre, K.L., I. Stirling, L.F. Lowry, Ø. Wiig, M.P. Heide-Jørgensen, and S.H. Ferguson. 2008. Quantifying the sensitivity of arctic marine mammals to climate-induced habitat change. Ecological Applications 18: 97-125.
27. Leslie, P.H. 1945. On the use of matrices in certain population mathematics. Biometrica 33: 183-212.
28. Lydersen, C., and I. Gjertz. 1986. Studies of the ringed seal (Phoca hispida Schreber 1775) in its breeding habitat in Kongsfjorden, Svalbard. Polar Research 4: 57-63.
29. Lydersen, C., and K.M. Kovacs. 1999. Behaviour and energetics of ice-breeding, North Atlantic phocid seals during the lactation period. Marine Ecology Progress Series 187: 265-281.
30. Lydersen, C., P.M. Jensen, and E. Lydersen. 1990. A survey of the Van Mijen fiord, Svalbard, as habitat for ringed seals, Phoca hispida. Holarctic Ecology 13: 130-133.
31. Meier, H.E.M. 2002. Regional ocean climate simulations with a 3D ice-ocean model for the Baltic Sea. Part 2: Results for sea-ice. Climate Dynamics 19: 255-266.
32. Meier, H.E.M., R. Doscher, and A. Halkka. 2004. Simulated distributions of Baltic Sea-ice in the warming climate and consequences for the winter habitat of the Baltic Ringed Seal. AMBIO 33: 249-256.
33. Moore, S.E., and H.P. Huntington. 2008. Arctic marine mammals and climate change: Impacts and resilience. Ecological Applications 18: 157-165.
34. Ognev, S.I. 1935. Mammals of the USSR and adjacent countries. vol. III Carnivora (Fissipedia and Pinnipedia). Israel Program for Scientific Translations, Jerusalem (1962), pp 641.
35. Ohashi, K., N. Miyazaki, S. Tanabe, H. Nakata, R. Miura, K. Fujita, C. Wakasa, M. Uema, et al. 2001. Seroepidemiological survey of distemper virus infection in the Caspian Sea and Lake Baikal. Veterinary Microbiology 82: 203-210.
36. Olofsson, O. 1933. About the ringed seal, Phoca hispida annelata, size and food etc. Fauna och Flora 1: 17-28 (In Swedish).
37. Reeves, R.R. 1998. Distribution, abundance and biology of ringed seals (Phoca hispida): An overview. NAMMCO Scientific Publications 1: 9-45.
38. Roeckner, E. 2011. ECHAM5, The Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/en/wissenschaft/modelle/ echam/echam5.html. Accessed 15 Oct 2011.
39. Siniff, D.B., R.A. Garrott, J.J. Rotella, W.R. Fraser, and D.G. Ainley. 2008. Opinion projecting the effects of environmental change on Antarctic seals. Antarctic Science 20: 425-435.
40. Sipila, T. 2003. Conservation biology of Saimaa ringed seal (Phoca hispida saimensis) with reference to other European seal populations. PhD Thesis. Finland: University of Helsinki, 116 pp.
41. Smith, T.G. 1987. The ringed seal, Phoca hispida, of the Canadian Western Arctic. Canadian Bulletin of Fisheries and Aquatic Science 216: 1-81.
42. Smith, T.G., and C. Lydersen. 1991. Availability of suitable land-fast ice and predation as factors limiting ringed seal populations, Phoca hispida, in Svalbard. Polar Research 10: 585-594.
43. Tynan, C.T., and D.P. DeMaster. 1997. Observations and predictions of Arctic climatic change: Potential effects on marine mammals. Arctic 50: 308-322.