메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 69, Issue 11, 2012, Pages 3350-3371

Practical and intrinsic predictability of severe and convective weather at the mesoscales

Author keywords

Convective storms; Short range prediction

Indexed keywords

BOW ECHO EVENT; BOW ECHOES; COLD POOL; CONVECTIVE STORMS; CONVECTIVE VORTICES; CONVECTIVE WEATHER; DEEP CONVECTION; ENSEMBLE FORECASTS; ENSEMBLE SIMULATION; ENVIRONMENTAL DIFFERENCE; GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEMS; INITIAL CONDITIONS; MESO SCALE; OBSERVATION ERRORS; REALISTIC INITIAL CONDITIONS; SEVERE WEATHER; SQUALL LINES; UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH;

EID: 84872040793     PISSN: 00224928     EISSN: 15200469     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JAS-D-11-0315.1     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (134)

References (38)
  • 1
    • 33947280610 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Impacts of initial condition errors on mesoscale predictability of heavy precipitation along the mei-yu front of China
    • Bei, N., and F. Zhang, 2007: Impacts of initial condition errors on mesoscale predictability of heavy precipitation along the mei-yu front of China. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 133, 83-99.
    • (2007) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , vol.133 , pp. 83-99
    • Bei, N.1    Zhang, F.2
  • 2
    • 0242583091 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Resolution requirements for the simulation of deep moist convection
    • Bryan, G., J. Wyngaard, and J. Fritch, 2003: Resolution requirements for the simulation of deep moist convection. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 2394-2416.
    • (2003) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.131 , pp. 2394-2416
    • Bryan, G.1    Wyngaard, J.2    Fritch, J.3
  • 3
    • 77955536003 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Growth of spread in convection-allowing and convection-parameterizing ensembles
    • Clark, A. J.,W.A. Gallus Jr.,M. Xue, and F. Kong, 2010: Growth of spread in convection-allowing and convection-parameterizing ensembles. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 594-612.
    • (2010) Wea. Forecasting , vol.25 , pp. 594-612
    • Clark, A.J.1    Gallus Jr., W.A.2    Xue, M.3    Kong, F.4
  • 4
    • 4444229911 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Bow Echo and MCV Experiment: Observations and opportunities
    • and Coauthors
    • Davis, C., and Coauthors, 2004: The Bow Echo and MCV Experiment: Observations and opportunities. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 1075-1093.
    • (2004) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , vol.85 , pp. 1075-1093
    • Davis, C.1
  • 5
    • 28944448519 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The next generation of NWP: Explicit forecasts of convection using theWeather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model
    • Done, J., C. Davis, and M. Weisman, 2004: The next generation of NWP: Explicit forecasts of convection using theWeather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Atmos. Sci. Lett., 5, 110-117.
    • (2004) Atmos. Sci. Lett. , vol.5 , pp. 110-117
    • Done, J.1    Davis, C.2    Weisman, M.3
  • 6
    • 0037101740 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A generalized approach to parameterizing convection combining ensemble and data assimilation techniques
    • doi:10.1029/ 2002GL015311
    • Grell, G. A., and D. Dévényi, 2002: A generalized approach to parameterizing convection combining ensemble and data assimilation techniques. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 1693, doi:10.1029/ 2002GL015311.
    • (2002) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.29 , pp. 1693
    • Grell, G.A.1    Dévényi, D.2
  • 7
    • 34248335054 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic evaluation of the dynamics and predictability of the mesoscale convective vortex of 10-13 June 2003
    • Hawblitzel, D., F. Zhang, Z. Meng, and C. Davis, 2007: Probabilistic evaluation of the dynamics and predictability of the mesoscale convective vortex of 10-13 June 2003. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 1544-1563.
    • (2007) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.135 , pp. 1544-1563
    • Hawblitzel, D.1    Zhang, F.2    Meng, Z.3    Davis, C.4
  • 8
    • 37349077632 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Atmospheric predictability at synoptic versus cloud-resolving scales
    • Hohenegger, C., and C. Schär, 2007a: Atmospheric predictability at synoptic versus cloud-resolving scales. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88, 1783-1793.
    • (2007) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , vol.88 , pp. 1783-1793
    • Hohenegger, C.1    Schär, C.2
  • 9
    • 38349185653 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predictability and error growth dynamics in cloud-resolving models
    • Hohenegger, C., and C. Schär, 2007b: Predictability and error growth dynamics in cloud-resolving models. J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 4467-4478.
    • (2007) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.64 , pp. 4467-4478
    • Hohenegger, C.1    Schär, C.2
  • 10
    • 1842587750 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A revised approach to ice microphysical processes for the bulk parameterization of clouds and precipitation
    • Hong, S., J. Dudhia, and S. Chen, 2004: A revised approach to ice microphysical processes for the bulk parameterization of clouds and precipitation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 103-120.
    • (2004) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.132 , pp. 103-120
    • Hong, S.1    Dudhia, J.2    Chen, S.3
  • 11
    • 0000241853 scopus 로고
    • Deterministic nonperiodic flow
    • Lorenz, E. N., 1963: Deterministic nonperiodic flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 20, 130-141.
    • (1963) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.20 , pp. 130-141
    • Lorenz, E.N.1
  • 12
    • 0014534148 scopus 로고
    • Atmospheric predictability as revealed by naturally occurring analogues
    • Lorenz, E. N., 1969: Atmospheric predictability as revealed by naturally occurring analogues. J. Atmos. Sci., 26, 636-646.
    • (1969) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.26 , pp. 636-646
    • Lorenz, E.N.1
  • 14
    • 84971441823 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predictability aspects of global aqua-planet simulations with explicit convection
    • Mapes, B. E., S. Tulich, T. Nasuno, and M. Satoh, 2008: Predictability aspects of global aqua-planet simulations with explicit convection. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 86A, 175-185.
    • (2008) J. Meteor. Soc. Japan , vol.86 , Issue.A , pp. 175-185
    • Mapes, B.E.1    Tulich, S.2    Nasuno, T.3    Satoh, M.4
  • 15
    • 44449094042 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Test of an ensemble Kalman filter for mesoscale and regional-scale data assimilation. Part III: Comparison with 3DVar in a real-data case study
    • Meng, Z., and F. Zhang, 2008a: Test of an ensemble Kalman filter for mesoscale and regional-scale data assimilation. Part III: Comparison with 3DVar in a real-data case study. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 522-540.
    • (2008) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.136 , pp. 522-540
    • Meng, Z.1    Zhang, F.2
  • 16
    • 57149138884 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Test of an ensemble Kalman filter for mesoscale and regional-scale data assimilation. Part IV: Comparison with 3DVar in a month-long experiment
    • Meng, Z., and F. Zhang, 2008b: Test of an ensemble Kalman filter for mesoscale and regional-scale data assimilation. Part IV: Comparison with 3DVar in a month-long experiment. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 3671-3682.
    • (2008) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.136 , pp. 3671-3682
    • Meng, Z.1    Zhang, F.2
  • 17
    • 0037408693 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Improvement of the K-profile model for the planetary boundary layer based on large eddy simulation data
    • Noh, Y., W. Cheon, S. Hong, and S. Raasch, 2003: Improvement of the K-profile model for the planetary boundary layer based on large eddy simulation data. Bound.-LayerMeteor., 107, 401-427.
    • (2003) Bound.-layerMeteor. , vol.107 , pp. 401-427
    • Noh, Y.1    Cheon, W.2    Hong, S.3    Raasch, S.4
  • 18
    • 0027789670 scopus 로고
    • Extended-range atmospheric prediction and the Lorenz model
    • Palmer, T. N., 1993: Extended-range atmospheric prediction and the Lorenz model. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 74, 49-65.
    • (1993) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , vol.74 , pp. 49-65
    • Palmer, T.N.1
  • 19
    • 58049219719 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicting the influence of observations on medium-range forecasts of atmospheric flow
    • Sellwood, K. J., S. Majumdar, B. Mapes, and I. Szunyogh, 2008: Predicting the influence of observations on medium-range forecasts of atmospheric flow. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 134, 2011-2027.
    • (2008) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , vol.134 , pp. 2011-2027
    • Sellwood, K.J.1    Majumdar, S.2    Mapes, B.3    Szunyogh, I.4
  • 20
    • 58049120795 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A probabilistic analysis of the dynamics and predictability of tropical cyclogenesis
    • Sippel, J., and F. Zhang, 2008: A probabilistic analysis of the dynamics and predictability of tropical cyclogenesis. J. Atmos. Sci., 65, 3440-3459.
    • (2008) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.65 , pp. 3440-3459
    • Sippel, J.1    Zhang, F.2
  • 21
    • 77953338131 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Factors affecting the predictability of Hurricane Humberto (2007)
    • Sippel, J., and F. Zhang, 2010: Factors affecting the predictability of Hurricane Humberto (2007). J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 1759-1778.
    • (2010) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.67 , pp. 1759-1778
    • Sippel, J.1    Zhang, F.2
  • 23
    • 4344693347 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Mesoscale predictability of moist baroclinic waves: Experiments with parameterized convection
    • Tan, Z., F. Zhang, R. Rotunno, and C. Snyder, 2004: Mesoscale predictability of moist baroclinic waves: Experiments with parameterized convection. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 1794-1804.
    • (2004) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.61 , pp. 1794-1804
    • Tan, Z.1    Zhang, F.2    Rotunno, R.3    Snyder, C.4
  • 24
    • 65549090837 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the predictability of mesoscale convective systems: Two-dimensional simulations
    • Wandishin, M. S., D. J. Stensrud, S. L. Mullen, and L. J. Wicker, 2008: On the predictability of mesoscale convective systems: Two-dimensional simulations. Wea. Forecasting, 23, 773-785.
    • (2008) Wea. Forecasting , vol.23 , pp. 773-785
    • Wandishin, M.S.1    Stensrud, D.J.2    Mullen, S.L.3    Wicker, L.J.4
  • 25
    • 77953183466 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the predictability of mesoscale convective systems: Three-dimensional simulations
    • Wandishin, M. S., D. J. Stensrud, S. L. Mullen, and L. J. Wicker,2010: On the predictability of mesoscale convective systems: Three-dimensional simulations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 863-885.
    • (2010) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.138 , pp. 863-885
    • Wandishin, M.S.1    Stensrud, D.J.2    Mullen, S.L.3    Wicker, L.J.4
  • 27
    • 69949163592 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Effects of moist convection on hurricane predictability
    • Wang, H., and J. Sippel, 2009: Effects of moist convection on hurricane predictability. J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 1944-1961.
    • (2009) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.66 , pp. 1944-1961
    • Wang, H.1    Sippel, J.2
  • 28
    • 0036611617 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Mesoscale predictability of the surprise snowstorm of 24-25 January 2000
    • Wang, H., C. Snyder, and R. Rotunno, 2002: Mesoscale predictability of the surprise snowstorm of 24-25 January 2000. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 1617-1632.
    • (2002) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.130 , pp. 1617-1632
    • Wang, H.1    Snyder, C.2    Rotunno, R.3
  • 29
    • 0038656650 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Effects of moist convection on mesoscale predictability
    • Wang, H., C. Snyder, and R. Rotunno, 2003: Effects of moist convection on mesoscale predictability. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 1173-1185.
    • (2003) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.60 , pp. 1173-1185
    • Wang, H.1    Snyder, C.2    Rotunno, R.3
  • 30
    • 33646430318 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Mesoscale predictability of an extreme warm-season rainfall event
    • Wang, H., A. Odins, and J. W. Nielsen-Gammon, 2006: Mesoscale predictability of an extreme warm-season rainfall event. Wea. Forecasting, 21, 149-166.
    • (2006) Wea. Forecasting , vol.21 , pp. 149-166
    • Wang, H.1    Odins, A.2    Nielsen-Gammon, J.W.3
  • 31
    • 34248324431 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Mesoscale predictability ofmoist baroclinicwaves:Convectionpermitting experiments and multistage error growth dynamics
    • Mon. Wea. Rev., 2287-2296
    • Wang, H., N. Bei, R. Rotunno, C. Snyder, and C. Epifanio, 2007: Mesoscale predictability ofmoist baroclinicwaves:Convectionpermitting experiments and multistage error growth dynamics. J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 3579-3594.Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 2287-2296.
    • (2007) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.140 , pp. 3579-3594
    • Wang, H.1    Bei, N.2    Rotunno, R.3    Snyder, C.4    Epifanio, C.5
  • 32
    • 0020434898 scopus 로고
    • The dependence of numerically simulated convective storms on wind shear and buoyancy
    • Weisman, M. L., and J. B. Klemp, 1982: The dependence of numerically simulated convective storms on wind shear and buoyancy. Mon. Wea. Rev., 110, 504-520.
    • (1982) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.110 , pp. 504-520
    • Weisman, M.L.1    Klemp, J.B.2
  • 33
    • 27744561578 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dynamics and structure of mesoscale error covariance of a winter cyclone estimated through shortrange ensemble forecasts
    • Zhang, F., 2005: Dynamics and structure of mesoscale error covariance of a winter cyclone estimated through shortrange ensemble forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 2876-2893.
    • (2005) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.133 , pp. 2876-2893
    • Zhang, F.1
  • 34
    • 69949163592 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Effects of moist convection on hurricane predictability
    • Wang, H., and J. Sippel, 2009: Effects of moist convection on hurricane predictability. J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 1944-1961.
    • (2009) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.66 , pp. 1944-1961
    • Wang, H.1    Sippel, J.2
  • 35
    • 0036611617 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Mesoscale predictability of the surprise snowstorm of 24-25 January 2000
    • Wang, H., C. Snyder, and R. Rotunno, 2002: Mesoscale predictability of the surprise snowstorm of 24-25 January 2000. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 1617-1632.
    • (2002) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.130 , pp. 1617-1632
    • Wang, H.1    Snyder, C.2    Rotunno, R.3
  • 36
    • 0038656650 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Effects of moist convection on mesoscale predictability
    • Wang, H., C. Snyder, and R. Rotunno, 2003: Effects of moist convection on mesoscale predictability. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 1173-1185.
    • (2003) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.60 , pp. 1173-1185
    • Wang, H.1    Snyder, C.2    Rotunno, R.3
  • 37
    • 33646430318 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Mesoscale predictability of an extreme warm-season rainfall event
    • Wang, H., A. Odins, and J. W. Nielsen-Gammon, 2006: Mesoscale predictability of an extreme warm-season rainfall event. Wea. Forecasting, 21, 149-166.
    • (2006) Wea. Forecasting , vol.21 , pp. 149-166
    • Wang, H.1    Odins, A.2    Nielsen-Gammon, J.W.3
  • 38
    • 34248324431 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Mesoscale predictability ofmoist baroclinicwaves:Convectionpermitting experiments and multistage error growth dynamics
    • Wang, H., N. Bei, R. Rotunno, C. Snyder, and C. Epifanio, 2007: Mesoscale predictability ofmoist baroclinicwaves:Convectionpermitting experiments and multistage error growth dynamics. J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 3579-3594.
    • (2007) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.64 , pp. 3579-3594
    • Wang, H.1    Bei, N.2    Rotunno, R.3    Snyder, C.4    Epifanio, C.5


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.