Behind the Curve: Clarifying the Best Approach to Calculating Predicted Probabilities and Marginal Effects from Limited Dependent Variable Models

American Journal of Political Science

Volumn 57, Issue 1, 2013, Pages 263-277

  Hanmer, Michael J ^a   Ozan Kalkan, Kerem ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND   (United States)

^b MIDDLE EAST TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY   (Turkey)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84871934813     PISSN: 00925853     EISSN: 15405907     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2012.00602.x     Document Type: Article

References (32)

1. Achen, Christopher H. 1982. Interpreting and Using Regression Thousand Oaks, CA : Sage.
2. Ai, Chunrong, and Edward C. Norton 2003. "Interaction Terms in Logit and Probit Models. Economics Letters 80: 123-29.
3. Aldrich, John H., and Charles F. Cnudde 1975. "Probing the Bounds of Conventional Wisdom: A Comparison of Regression, Probit, and Discriminant Analysis. American Journal of Political Science 19(3): 571-608.
4. Aldrich, John H., and Forrest D. Nelson 1984. Linear Probability, Logit, and Probit Models Newbury Park, CA : Sage.
5. Bartels, Brandon L., Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier, Corwin D. Smidt, and Renee M. Smith 2011. "The Dynamic Properties of Individual-Level Party Identification in the United States. Electoral Studies 30(1): 210-22.
6. Berry, William D., Justin Esarey, and Jacqueline Demeritt 2010. "Testing for Interaction in Binary Logit and Probit Models. American Journal of Political Science 54(1): 248-66.
7. Biggers, Daniel R. 2011. "When Ballot Issues Matter: Social Issue Ballot Measures and Their Impact on Turnout. Political Behavior 33(1): 3-25.
8. Brambor, Thomas, William Roberts Clark, and Matt Golder 2006. "Understanding Interaction Models: Improving Empirical Analyses. Political Analysis 14(1): 63-82.
9. Gelman, Andrew, and Jennifer Hill 2007. Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models New York : Cambridge University Press.
10. Gelman, Andrew, and Iain Pardoe 2007. "Average Predictive Comparisons for Models with Nonlinearity, Interactions, and Variance Components. Sociological Methodology 37(1): 23-51.
11. Greene, William H. 2003. Econometric Analysis 5th ed. Upper Saddle River, NJ : Prentice Hall.
12. Greene, William H. 2008. Econometric Analysis 6th ed. Upper Saddle River, NJ : Prentice Hall.
13. Hanmer, Michael J. 2009. Discount Voting: Voter Registration Reforms and Their Effects New York : Cambridge University Press.
14. Hanushek, Eric A., and John E. Jackson 1977. Statistical Methods for Social Scientists New York : Academic Press.
15. Herrnson, Paul S., Michael J. Hanmer, and Richard G. Niemi 2012. "The Impact of Ballot Type on Voter Errors. American Journal of Political Science Forthcoming.
16. Herron, Michael C. 1999. "Post-Estimation Uncertainty in Limited Dependent Variable Models. Political Analysis 8(1): 83-98.
17. Ho, Daniel E., Kosuke Imai, Gary King, and Elizabeth A. Stuart 2007. "Matching as Nonparametric Preprocessing for Reducing Model Dependence in Parametric Causal Inference. Political Analysis 15(3): 199-236.
18. Imai, Kosuke, Gary King, and Elizabeth A. Stuart 2008. "Misunderstandings between Experimentalists and Observationalists about Causal Inference. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society) 171(2): 481-502.
19. Kam, Cindy D., and Robert J. Franzese Jr. 2007. Modeling and Interpreting Interactive Hypotheses in Regression Analysis Ann Arbor : University of Michigan Press.
20. King, Gary. 1998. Unifying Political Methodology: The Likelihood Theory of Statistical Inference Ann Arbor : University of Michigan Press.
21. King, Gary, Robert O. Keohane, and Sidney Verba 1994. Designing Social Inquiry: Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research Princeton, NJ : Princeton University Press.
22. King, Gary, Michael Tomz, and Jason Wittenberg 2000. "Making the Most of Statistical Analyses: Improving Interpretation and Presentation. American Journal of Political Science 44(2): 341-55.
23. King, Gary, and Langche Zeng 2006. "The Dangers of Extreme Counterfactuals. Political Analysis 14(2): 131-59.
24. Long, J. Scott. 1997. Regression Models for Categorical and Limited Dependent Variables Thousand Oaks, CA : Sage.
25. Long, J. Scott, and Jeremy Freese 2005. Regression Models for Categorical Outcomes Using Stata 2nd ed. College Station, TX : Stata Press.
26. McCulloch, Charles E. 2000. "Generalized Linear Models. Journal of the American Statistical Association 95(452): 1320-24.
27. Morgan, Stephen L., and Christopher Winship 2007. Counterfactuals and Causal Inference: Methods and Principles for Social Research New York : Cambridge University Press.
28. Rosenstone, Steven J., and Raymond E. Wolfinger 1978. "The Effect of Registration Laws on Voter Turnout. American Political Science Review 72(1): 22-45.
29. Signorino, Curtis S., and Ahmer Tarar 2006. "A Unified Theory and Test of Extended Immediate Deterrence. American Journal of Political Science 50(3): 586-605.
30. Tomz, Michael, Jason Wittenberg, and Gary King 2001. CLARIFY: Software for Interpreting and Presenting Statistical Results. Version 2.0. Cambridge, MA : Harvard University. http://gking.harvard.edu.
31. Wolfinger, Raymond E., and Steven J. Rosenstone 1980. Who Votes? New Haven, CT : Yale University Press.
32. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M. 2002. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data Cambridge, MA : MIT Press.