Evolutionary rescue beyond the models

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

Volumn 368, Issue 1610, 2013, Pages

  Gomulkiewicz, Richard ^a   Shaw, Ruth G ^b  

^a WASHINGTON STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA   (United States)

Author keywords

Absolute fitness; Aster models; Eco evolutionary models; Environmental change; Genetic variation; Population growth

Indexed keywords

EVOLUTIONARY THEORY; FITNESS; GENETIC VARIATION; LABORATORY METHOD; NUMERICAL MODEL; POPULATION GROWTH;

EID: 84871853772     PISSN: 09628436     EISSN: 14712970     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2012.0093     Document Type: Review

References (70)

1. MacArthur RH, Wilson EO. 1967 Island biogeography. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
2. Lande R. 1993 Risks of population extinction from demographic and environmental stochasticity and random catastrophes. Am. Nat. 142, 911-927. (doi:10.1086/285580)
3. Bradshaw AD. 1991 The Croonian Lecture 1991: genostasis and the limits to evolution. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B 333, 289-305. (doi:10.1098/ rstb.1991.0079)
4. Gomulkiewicz R, Houle D. 2009 Demographic and genetic constraints on evolution. Am. Nat. 174, E218-EE29. (doi:10.1086/645086)
5. Macnair MR. 1991 Why the evolution of resistance to anthropogenic toxins normally involves major gene changes: the limits to natural selection. Genetica 84, 213-219. (doi:10.1007/BF00127250)
6. Lynch M, Lande R. 1993 Evolution and extinction in response to environmental change. In Biotic interactions and global climate change (eds PM Kareiva, JG Kingsolver, RB Huey), pp. 234-250. Sunderland, MA: Sinauer Associates.
7. Gomulkiewicz R, Holt RD. 1995 When does evolution by natural selection prevent extinction? Evolution 49, 201-207. (doi:10.2307/2410305)
8. Boulding EG, Hay T. 2001 Genetic and demographic parameters determining population persistence after a discrete change in the environment. Heredity 86, 313-324. (doi:10.1046/j.1365-2540.2001.00829.x)
9. Bürger R, Lynch M. 1995 Evolution and extinction in changing environment: a quantitative-genetic analysis. Evolution 49, 151-163. (doi:10.2307/ 2410301)
10. Holt RD, Gomulkiewicz R. 1997 The evolution of species' niches: a population dynamic perspective. In Case studies in mathematical modeling-ecology, physiology, and cell biology (eds HG Othmer, FR Adler, MA Lewis), pp. 25-50. New York, NY: Prentice-Hall.
11. Antia R, Regoes RR, Koella JC, Bergstrom CT. 2003 The role of evolution in the emergence of infectious diseases. Nature 426, 658-661. (doi:10.1038/ nature02104)
12. Holt RD, Gomulkiewicz R. 2004 Conservation implications of niche conservatism and evolution in heterogeneous environments. In Evolutionary conservation biology (eds R Ferrier, U Dieckmann, D Couvet), pp. 244-264. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
13. Holt RD, Barfield M, Gomulkiewicz R. 2005 Theories of niche conservatism and evolution: could exotic species be potential tests? In Species Invasions: Insights into ecology, evolution, and biogeography (eds DF Sax, JJ Stachowicz, SD Gaines), pp. 259-290. Sunderland, MA: Sinauer Associates.
14. Orr HA, Unckless RL. 2008 Population extinction and the genetics of adaptation. Am. Nat. 172, 160-169. (doi:10.1086/589460)
15. Baskett ML, Gomulkiewicz R. 2011 Introgressive hybridization as a mechanism for species rescue. Theor. Ecol. 4, 223-239. (doi:10.1007/s12080-011-0118-0)
16. de Mazencourt C, Johnson E, Barraclough TG. 2008 Biodiversity inhibits species' evolutionary responses to changing environments. Ecol. Lett. 11, 380-388. (doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2008. 01152.x)
17. Björklund M, Ranta E, Kaitala V, Bach LA, Lundberg P, Stenseth NC. 2009 Quantitative trait evolution and environmental change. PLoS ONE 4, e4521. (doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0004521)
18. Jones AG. 2008 A theoretical quantitative genetic study of negative ecological interactions and extinction times in changing environments. BMC Evol. Biol. 8, 119-128. (doi:10.1186/1471-2148-8-119)
19. Kanarek AR, Webb CT. 2010 Allee effects, adaptive evolution, and invasion success. Evol. Appl. 3, 122-135. (doi:10.1111/j.1752-4571.2009.00112.x)
20. Gomulkiewicz R, Holt RD, Barfield M, Nuismer SL. 2010 Genetics, adaptation, and invasion in harsh environments. Evol. Appl. 3, 97-108. (doi:10.1111/ j.1752-4571.2009.00117.x)
21. Willi Y, Hoffman AA. 2009 Demographic factors and genetic variation influence population persistence under environmental change. J. Evol. Biol. 22, 124-133. (doi:10.1111/j.1420-9101.2008.01631.x)
22. Bell G, Gonzalez A. 2009 Evolutionary rescue can prevent extinction following environmental change. Ecol. Lett. 12, 942-948. (doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248. 2009.01350.x)
23. Bodbyl Roels SA, Kelly JK. 2011 Rapid evolution caused by pollinator loss in Mimulus guttatus. Evolution 65, 2541-2552. (doi:10.1111/j.1558-5646.2011.01326.x)
24. Bell G, Gonzalez A. 2011 Adaptation and evolutionary rescue in metapopulationsexperiencing environmental deterioration. Science 332, 1327-1330. (doi:10.1126/science.1203105)
25. Shaw RG, Etterson JR. 2012 Tansley review: rapid climate change and the rate of adaptation: insight from experimental quantitative genetics. New Phytol. 195, 752-765. (doi:10.1111/j.1469-8137. 2012.04230.x)
26. R Development Core Team 2006 R: a language and environment for statistical computing. Vienna, Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing. See http://www.r-project.org
27. Chevin L-M, Gallet R, Gomulkiewicz R, Holt R, Fellous S. 2012 Phenotypic plasticity in evolutionary rescue experiments. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 368, 20120089. (doi:10.1098/rstb.2012.0089)
28. Weber KE. 1990 Increased selection response in larger populations. I. Selection for wing-tip height in Drosophila melanogastor at three population sizes. Genetics 125, 579-584.
29. Fisher RA. 1930 The genetical theory of natural selection. Oxford, UK: Clarendon Press.
30. Antonovics J, Levin DA. 1980 The ecological and genetical consequences of density dependent regulation in plants. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst. 11, 411-452. (doi:10.1146/annurev.es.11.110180.002211)
31. Seber GAF. 2002 Estimation of animal abundance and related parameters. Caldwell, NJ: Blackburn Press.
32. Slade NA, Alexander HM, Kettle WD. 2003 Estimation of population size and probabilities of survival and detection in Mead's milkweed. Ecology 84, 791-797. (doi:10.1890/0012-9658(2003)084[0791:EOPSAP]2.0.CO;2)
33. Stanton-Geddes J, Tiffin P, Shaw RG. 2012 Role of climate and competitors in limiting fitness across range edges of an annual plant. Ecology 93, 1604-1613. (doi:10.1890/11-1701.1)
34. Ozgul A, Tuljapurkar S, Benton TG, Pemberton JM, Clutton-Brock TH, Coulson T. 2009 The dynamics of phenotypic change and the shrinking sheep of St. Kilda. Science 325, 464-467. (doi:10.1126/ science.1173668)
35. Pemberton JM. 2010 Evolution of quantitative traits in the wild: mind the ecology. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B 365, 2431-2438. (doi:10.1098/rstb.2010. 0108)
36. Shaw RG, Geyer CJ, Wagenius S, Hangelbroek HH, Etterson JR. 2008 Unifying life history analyses for inference of fitness and population growth. Am. Nat. 172, E35-E47. (doi:10.1086/588063)
37. Venable DL. 2007 Bet hedging in a guild of desert annuals. Ecology 88, 1086-1090. (doi:10.1890/06-1495)
38. Price MV, Campbell DR, Waser NM, Brody AK. 2008 Bridging the generation gap in plants: pollination, parental fecundity, and offspring demography. Ecology 89, 1596-1604. (doi:10.1890/07-0614.1)
39. Campbell DR, Waser NM. 2007 Evolutionary dynamics of an Ipomopsis hybrid zone: confronting models with lifetime fitness data. Am. Nat. 169, 298-310. (doi:10.1086/510758)
40. Waser NM, Campbell DR, Price MV. 2010 Densitydependent demographic responses of a semelparous plant to natural variation in seed rain. Oikos 119, 1929-1935. (doi:10.1111/j.1600-0706.2010.18429.x)
41. Price MV, Waser NM. 2000 Responses of subalpine meadow vegetation to four years of experimental warming. Ecol. Appl. 10, 811-823. (doi:10.1890/ 1051-0761(2000)010[0811:ROSMVT]2.0.CO;2)
42. Etterson JR. 2004 Evolutionary potential of Chamaecrista fasciculata in relation to climate change. I. Clinal patterns of selection along an environmental gradient in the Great Plains. Evolution 58, 1446-1458.
43. Etterson JR. 2004 Evolutionary potential of Chamaecrista fasciculata in relation to climate change. II. Genetic architecture of three populations reciprocally planted along an environmental gradient in the Great Plains. Evolution 58, 1459-1471.
44. Angert AL, Schemske DW. 2005 The evolution of species' distributions: reciprocal transplants across the elevation ranges of Mimulus cardinalis and M. lewisii. Evolution 59, 1671-1684.
45. Lau JA, Shaw RG, Reich PB, Tiffin P. 2007 Strong ecological but weak evolutionary effects of elevated CO2 on a recombinant inbred population of Arabidopsis thaliana. New Phytol. 175, 351-362. (doi:10.1111/j.1469-8137.2007.02108.x)
46. Lau JA, Shaw RG, Reich PB, Tiffin P. 2010 Species interactions in a changing environment: elevated CO2 alters the ecological and potential evolutionary consequences of competition. Evol. Ecol. Res. 12, 435-455.
47. Ozgul A, Childs DZ, Oli MK, Armitage KB, Blumstein DT, Olson LE. 2010 Coupled dynamics of body mass and population growth in response to environmental change. Nature 466, 482-485. (doi:10.1038/nature09210)
48. Ewens WJ. 2004 In Mathematical population genetics. I. Theoretical introduction, 2nd edn (eds SS Antman, JE Marsden, L Sirovich, S Wiggins). Interdisciplinary Applied Mathematics, vol. 27, pp. 259-261. New York, NY: Springer.
49. Geyer CJ, Ridley CE, Latta RG, Etterson JR, Shaw RG. 2012 Aster models with random effects via penalized likelihood. Technical Report no. 692. School of Statistics, University of Minnesota, MN, USA.
50. Vander Wal EGD, Garant D, Festa-Bianchet M, Pelletier F. 2012 Evolutionary rescue in vertebrates: evidence, applications and uncertainty. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 368, 20120090. (doi:10.1098/rstb. 2012.0090)
51. Gandon S, Hochberg M, Holt RD, Martin G, Day T. 2012 What limits the evolutionary emergence of pathogens? Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 368, 2012-0086. (doi:10.1098/rstb.2012.0086)
52. Holt RD, Barfield M, Gomulkiewicz R. 2004 Temporal variation can facilitate niche evolution in harsh sink environments. Am. Nat. 164, 187-200. (doi:10.1086/422343)
53. Newman D, Pilson D. 1997 Increased probability of extinction due to decreased genetic effective population size: experimental populations of Clarkia pulchella. Evolution 51, 354-362. (doi:10.2307/ 2411107)
54. Deutsch CA, Tewksbury JJ, Huey RB, Sheldon KS, Ghalambor CK, Haak DC, Martin PR. 2008 Impacts of climate warming on terrestrial ectotherms across latitude. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 105, 6668-6672. (doi:10.1073/pnas.0709472105)
55. Angert AL. 2006 Demography of central and marginal populations of monkeyflowers (Mimulus cardinalis and M. lewisii). Ecology 87, 2014-2025. (doi:10.1890/0012-9658(2006)87[2014:DOCAMP]2.0. CO;2)
56. Caswell H. 2001 Matrix population models: construction, analysis, and interpretation, 2nd edn. Sunderland, MA: Sinauer Associates.
57. Charlesworth B. 1994 Evolution in age-structured populations, 2nd edn. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
58. Barfield M, Holt RD, Gomulkiewicz R. 2011 Evolution in stage-structured populations. Am. Nat. 177, 397-409. (doi:10.1086/658903)
59. Bennington CC, McGraw JB, Vavrek MC. 1991 Ecological genetic variation in seed banks. II.Phenotypic and genetic differences between young and old subpopulations of Luzula parviflora. J. Ecol. 79, 627-644. (doi:10.2307/ 2260658)
60. Vavrek MC, McGraw JB, Bennington CC. 1991 Ecological genetic variation in seed banks. III. Phenotypic and genetic differences between plants from young and old seed subpopulations of Carex biglowii. J. Ecol. 79, 645-662. (doi:10.2307/2260659)
61. Hairston NG, Lampert W, Cacres CE, Holtmeier CL, Weider LJ, Gaedke U, Fischer JM, Fox JA, Post DM. 1999 Rapid evolution revealed by dormant eggs. Nature 410, 446. (doi:10.1038/46731)
62. Kerfoot WC, Robbins JA, Weider LJ. 1999 A new approach to historical reconstruction: combining descriptive and experimental paleolimnology. Limnol. Oceanogr. 44, 1232-1247. (doi:10.4319/lo. 1999.44.5.1232)
63. Franks S, Sim S, Weis AE. 2007 Rapid evolution of flowering time by an annual plant in response to a climate fluctuation. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 104, 1278-1282. (doi:10.1073/pnas. 0608379104)
64. Franks SJ. 2011 Plasticity and evolution in drought avoidance and escape in the annual plant Brassica rapa. New Phytol. 190, 249-257. (doi:10.1111/j. 1469-8137.2010.03603.x)
65. Franks SJ, Avise JC, Bradshaw WE, Conner JK, Etterson JR, Mazer SJ, Shaw RG, Weis AE. 2008 The resurrection initiative: storing ancestral genotypes to capture evolution in action. BioScience 58, 870-873. (doi:10.1641/B580913)
66. Etterson JR, Franks S, Mazer SJ, Shaw RG, Updegraff K. 2012 Project Baseline: a seed bank to study evolution. (30 March 2012). See http://www.baselineseedbank.org/.
67. Lynch M, Conery J, Bürger R. 1995 Mutation accumulation and the extinction of small populations. Am. Nat. 146, 489-518. (doi:10.1086/ 285812)
68. Holt RD, Gomulkiewicz R, Barfield M. 2003 The phenomology of niche evolution via quantitive traits in a 'black-hole' sink. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 270, 215-224. (doi:10.1098/rspb.2002.2219)
69. Lopez S, Rousset F, Shaw FH, Shaw RG, Ronce O. 2009 Joint effects of inbreeding and local adaptation on the evolution of genetic load after fragmentation. Conserv. Biol. 23, 1618-1627. (doi:10.1111/j.1523-1739.2009.01326.x)
70. Simons AM. 2011 Modes of response to environmental change and the elusive empirical evidence for bet hedging. Proc. R. Soc. B 278, 1601-1609. (doi:10.1098/rspb. 2011.0176)