메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 7, Issue 4, 2012, Pages

A statistically predictive model for future monsoon failure in India

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE MODELS; FEEDBACK; RAIN; STABILITY;

EID: 84871841852     PISSN: None     EISSN: 17489326     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044023     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (48)

References (49)
  • 1
    • 0023736104 scopus 로고
    • Regression model for estimation of Indian foodgrain production from summer monsoon rainfall
    • 10.1016/0168-1923(88)90075-5 0168-1923
    • Parthasarathy B, Munot A and Kothawale D 1988 Regression model for estimation of Indian foodgrain production from summer monsoon rainfall Agric. Forest Meteorol. 42 167-82
    • (1988) Agric. Forest Meteorol. , vol.42 , pp. 167-182
    • Parthasarathy, B.1    Munot, A.2    Kothawale, D.3
  • 3
    • 33845308814 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Increasing trend of extreme rain events over India in a warming environment
    • DOI 10.1126/science.1132027
    • Goswami B N, Venugopal V, Sengupta D, Madhusoodanan M S and Xavier P K 2006 Increasing trend of extreme rain events over India in a warming environment Science 314 1442-5 (Pubitemid 44871948)
    • (2006) Science , vol.314 , Issue.5804 , pp. 1442-1445
    • Goswami, B.N.1    Venugopal, V.2    Sangupta, D.3    Madhusoodanan, M.S.4    Xavier, P.K.5
  • 6
    • 35448983889 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • South Asian summer monsoon precipitation variability: Coupled climate model simulations and projections under IPCC AR4
    • DOI 10.1007/s00704-006-0282-0
    • Kripalani R H, Oh J H, Kulkarni A, Sabade S S and Chaudhari H S 2007 South Asian summer monsoon precipitation variability: coupled climate model simulations and projections under IPCC AR4 Theor. Appl. Climatol. 90 133-59 (Pubitemid 47617260)
    • (2007) Theoretical and Applied Climatology , vol.90 , Issue.3-4 , pp. 133-159
    • Kripalani, R.H.1    Oh, J.H.2    Kulkarni, A.3    Sabade, S.S.4    Chaudhari, H.S.5
  • 9
    • 34248517044 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Observational relationships between aerosol and Asian monsoon rainfall, and circulation
    • DOI 10.1029/2006GL027546
    • Lau K M and Kim K M 2006 Observational relationships between aerosol and asian monsoon rainfall, and circulation Geophys. Res. Lett. 33 L21810 (Pubitemid 46747166)
    • (2006) Geophysical Research Letters , vol.33 , Issue.21
    • Lau, K.-M.1    Kim, K.-M.2
  • 10
    • 0032546841 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The influence of vegetation-atmosphere-cean interaction on climate during the mid-holocene
    • DOI 10.1126/science.280.5371.1916
    • Ganopolski A, Kubatzki C, Claussen M, Brovkin V and Petoukhov V 1998 The influence of vegetation- atmosphere-ocean interaction on climate during the mid-holocene Science 280 1916-9 (Pubitemid 28299394)
    • (1998) Science , vol.280 , Issue.5371 , pp. 1916-1919
    • Ganopolski, A.1    Kubatzki, C.2    Claussen, M.3    Brovkin, V.4    Petoukhov, V.5
  • 11
    • 72449131164 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Late quaternary vegetation-climate feedbacks
    • 10.5194/cp-5-203-2009 1814-9332
    • Claussen M 2009 Late quaternary vegetation-climate feedbacks Clim. Past 5 203-16
    • (2009) Clim. Past , vol.5 , pp. 203-216
    • Claussen, M.1
  • 12
    • 77956193479 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Is there regime behavior in monsoon convection in the late 20th century?
    • 10.1029/2010GL044159 0094-8276 L16706
    • Turner A G and Hannachi A 2010 Is there regime behavior in monsoon convection in the late 20th century? Geophys. Res. Lett. 37 L16706
    • (2010) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.37
    • Turner, A.G.1    Hannachi, A.2
  • 13
    • 72049107709 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Summer monsoon moisture variability over China and Mongolia during the past four centuries
    • 10.1029/2009GL041162 0094-8276 L22705
    • Li J et al 2009 Summer monsoon moisture variability over China and Mongolia during the past four centuries Geophys. Res. Lett. 36 L22705
    • (2009) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.36
    • Li, J.1
  • 14
    • 84891625649 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Changing links between South Asian summer monsoon circulation and tropospheric land-sea thermal contrasts under a warming scenario
    • 10.1029/2009GL041662 0094-8276 L02704
    • Sun Y, Ding Y and Da A 2010 Changing links between South Asian summer monsoon circulation and tropospheric land-sea thermal contrasts under a warming scenario Geophys. Res. Lett. 37 L02704
    • (2010) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.37
    • Sun, Y.1    Ding, Y.2    Da, A.3
  • 15
    • 0042471945 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Indian Ocean climate and an absolute chronology over Dansgaard/Oeschger events 9 to 13
    • DOI 10.1126/science.1086227
    • Burns S J, Fleitmann D, Matter A, Kramers J and Al-Subbary A A 2003 Indian ocean climate and an absolute chronology over Dansgaard/Oeschger events 9 to 13 Science 301 1365-7 (Pubitemid 37075809)
    • (2003) Science , vol.301 , Issue.5638 , pp. 1365-1367
    • Burns, S.J.1    Fleitmann, D.2    Matter, A.3    Kramers, J.4    Al-Subbary, A.A.5
  • 18
    • 84858786303 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A critical humidity threshold for monsoon transitions
    • 10.5194/cp-8-535-2012 1814-9332
    • Schewe J, Levermann A and Cheng H 2012 A critical humidity threshold for monsoon transitions Clim. Past 8 535-44
    • (2012) Clim. Past , vol.8 , pp. 535-544
    • Schewe, J.1    Levermann, A.2    Cheng, H.3
  • 19
    • 0037461724 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Abrupt changes in the Asian southwest monsoon during the holocene and their links to the North Alantic Ocean
    • Gupta A K, Anderson D M and Overpeck J T 2003 Abrupt changes in the Asian southwest monsoon during the Holocene and their links to the North Atlantic ocean Nature 421 354-7 (Pubitemid 36157929)
    • (2003) Nature , vol.421 , Issue.6921 , pp. 354-357
    • Gupta, A.K.1    Anderson, D.M.2    Overpeck, J.T.3
  • 22
    • 73949092085 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Basic mechanism for abrupt monsoon transitions
    • 10.1073/pnas.0901414106 0027-8424
    • Levermann A, Schewe J, Petoukhov V and Held H 2009 Basic mechanism for abrupt monsoon transitions Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 106 20572-7
    • (2009) Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. , vol.106 , pp. 20572-20577
    • Levermann, A.1    Schewe, J.2    Petoukhov, V.3    Held, H.4
  • 23
    • 33747833684 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • High resolution daily gridded rainfall data for the Indian region: Analysis of break and active monsoon spells
    • Rajeevan M, Bhate J, Kale J A and Lal B 2006 High resolution daily gridded rainfall data for the Indian region: analysis of break and active monsoon spells Curr. Sci. 91 296-306 (Pubitemid 44285757)
    • (2006) Current Science , vol.91 , Issue.3 , pp. 296-306
    • Rajeevan, M.1    Bhate, J.2    Kale, J.D.3    Lal, B.4
  • 25
    • 0019366650 scopus 로고
    • Predictability of monsoons
    • 10.1017/CBO9780511897580.009
    • Charney J G and Shukla J 1981 Predictability of monsoons Monsoon Dynamics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press)
    • (1981) Monsoon Dynamics , pp. 99
    • Charney, J.G.1    Shukla, J.2
  • 26
    • 2942673326 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An all-season real-time multivariate MJO index: Development of an index for monitoring and prediction
    • DOI 10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<1917:AARMMI>2.0.CO;2
    • Wheeler M and Hendon H 2004 An all-season real-time multivariate MJO index: development of an index for monitoring and prediction Mon. Weather Rev. 132 1917-32 (Pubitemid 39174485)
    • (2004) Monthly Weather Review , vol.132 , Issue.8 , pp. 1917-1932
    • Wheeler, M.C.1    Hendon, H.H.2
  • 28
    • 34147112927 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The South Asian summer monsoon and its relationship with ENSO in the IPCC AR4 simulations
    • DOI 10.1175/JCLI4035.1
    • Annamalai H, Hamilton K and Sperber K R 2007 The South Asian summer monsoon and its relationship with ENSO in the IPCC AR4 simulations J. Clim. 20 1071-92 (Pubitemid 46554532)
    • (2007) Journal of Climate , vol.20 , Issue.6 , pp. 1071-1092
    • Annamalai, H.1    Hamilton, K.2    Sperber, K.R.3
  • 29
    • 18544387786 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle
    • 229-232 DOI 10.1038/nature01092
    • Allen M and Ingram W 2002 Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle Nature 419 224-32 (Pubitemid 35033481)
    • (2002) Nature , vol.419 , Issue.6903 , pp. 224-227
    • Allen, M.R.1    Ingram, W.J.2
  • 30
    • 33749606331 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Unraveling the mystery of Indian monsoon failure during El Niño
    • DOI 10.1126/science.1131152
    • Kumar K K, Rajagopalan B, Hoerling M, Bates G and Cane M 2006 Unraveling the mystery of Indian monsoon failure during El Nino Science 314 115-9 (Pubitemid 44547753)
    • (2006) Science , vol.314 , Issue.5796 , pp. 115-119
    • Kumar, K.K.1    Rajagopalan, B.2    Hoerling, M.3    Bates, G.4    Cane, M.5
  • 32
    • 33646927242 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing
    • 10.1038/nature04744 0028-0836
    • Vecchi G et al 2006 Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing Nature 441 73-6
    • (2006) Nature , vol.441 , pp. 73-76
    • Vecchi, G.1
  • 33
    • 0001797041 scopus 로고
    • Chaos and predictability in forecasting the monsoons
    • 0027-8424
    • Palmer T N 1994 Chaos and predictability in forecasting the monsoons Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 60 57-66
    • (1994) Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. , vol.60 , pp. 57-66
    • Palmer, T.N.1
  • 34
    • 0034670351 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Intraseasonal and interannual variability of rainfall over India
    • 10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<0001:IAIVOR>2.0.CO;2 0894-8755
    • Krishnamurthy V and Shukla J 2000 Intraseasonal and interannual variability of rainfall over India J. Clim. 13 4366-77
    • (2000) J. Clim. , vol.13 , pp. 4366-4377
    • Krishnamurthy, V.1    Shukla, J.2
  • 35
    • 33750836961 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The annual cycle, intraseasonal oscillations, and roadblock to seasonal predictability of the Asian summer monsoon
    • DOI 10.1175/JCLI3901.1
    • Goswami B N, Wu G and Yasunari T 2006 The annual cycle, intraseasonal oscillations, and roadblock to seasonal predictability of the Asian summer monsoon J. Clim. 19 5078-99 (Pubitemid 44712435)
    • (2006) Journal of Climate , vol.19 , Issue.20 , pp. 5078-5099
    • Goswami, B.N.1    Wu, G.2    Yasunari, T.3
  • 36
    • 0035878298 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the relationship between Indian ocean sea surface temperature and Asian summer monsoon
    • DOI 10.1029/2000GL011847
    • Li T, Zhang Y, Chang C and Wang B 2001 On the relationship between Indian Ocean sea surface temperature and Asian summer monsoon Geophys. Res. Lett. 28 2843-6 (Pubitemid 32784315)
    • (2001) Geophysical Research Letters , vol.28 , Issue.14 , pp. 2843-2846
    • Li, T.1    Zhang, Y.2    Chang, C.-P.3    Wang, B.4
  • 37
    • 78049254051 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate and carbon-cycle variability over the last millennium
    • 10.5194/cp-6-723-2010 1814-9332
    • Jungclaus J H et al 2010 Climate and carbon-cycle variability over the last millennium Clim. Past 6 723-37
    • (2010) Clim. Past , vol.6 , pp. 723-737
    • Jungclaus, J.H.1
  • 39
    • 33745534998 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluation of the hydrological cycle in the ECHAM5 model
    • DOI 10.1175/JCLI3831.1
    • Hagemann S, Arpe K and Roeckner E 2006 Evaluation of the hydrological cycle in the ECHAM5 model J. Clim. 19 3810-27 (Pubitemid 44405145)
    • (2006) Journal of Climate , vol.19 , Issue.16 , pp. 3810-3827
    • Hagemann, S.1    Arpe, K.2    Roeckner, E.3
  • 41
    • 0037064630 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Max-Planck-Institute global ocean/sea ice model with orthogonal curvilinear coordinates
    • 10.1016/S1463-5003(02)00015-X 1463-5003
    • Marsland S, Haak H, Jungclaus J, Latif M and Roske F 2003 The Max-Planck-Institute global ocean/sea ice model with orthogonal curvilinear coordinates Ocean Modell. 5 91-127
    • (2003) Ocean Modell. , vol.5 , pp. 91-127
    • Marsland, S.1    Haak, H.2    Jungclaus, J.3    Latif, M.4    Roske, F.5
  • 43
    • 67349265192 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Wind onset and withdrawal of Asian summer monsoon and their simulated performance in AMIP models
    • 10.1007/s00382-008-0465-8 0930-7575
    • Li J and Zhang L 2009 Wind onset and withdrawal of Asian summer monsoon and their simulated performance in AMIP models Clim. Dyn. 32 935-68
    • (2009) Clim. Dyn. , vol.32 , pp. 935-968
    • Li, J.1    Zhang, L.2
  • 44
    • 66949169673 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Volcanism and the little ice age
    • Crowley T J et al 2008 Volcanism and the little ice age PAGES Newslett. 16 22-3
    • (2008) PAGES Newslett. , vol.16 , pp. 22-23
    • Crowley, T.J.1
  • 45
    • 50949103107 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Models of solar irradiance variations: Current status
    • 10.1007/s12036-008-0018-x 0250-6335
    • Krivova N A and Solanki S K 2008 Models of solar irradiance variations: current status J. Astrophys. Astron. 29 151-8
    • (2008) J. Astrophys. Astron. , vol.29 , pp. 151-158
    • Krivova, N.A.1    Solanki, S.K.2
  • 46
    • 62749187103 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A reconstruction of global agricultural areas and land cover for the last millennium
    • 10.1029/2007GB003153 0886-6236 GB3018
    • Pongratz J, Reick C, Raddatz T and Claussen M 2008 A reconstruction of global agricultural areas and land cover for the last millennium Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 22 GB3018
    • (2008) Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles , vol.22
    • Pongratz, J.1    Reick, C.2    Raddatz, T.3    Claussen, M.4
  • 47
    • 84903812675 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • www.mpimet.mpg.de/fileadmin/ozean/drg/web-page-millennium-nov09-m odel-details.pdf
  • 48
    • 11244333649 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • FlexMix: A general framework for finite mixture models and latent class regression in R
    • Leisch F 2004 FlexMix: a general framework for finite mixture models and latent class regression in R J. Stat. Softw. 11 1-18 (Pubitemid 40068149)
    • (2004) Journal of Statistical Software , vol.11 , pp. 1-18
    • Leisch, F.1
  • 49
    • 0000120766 scopus 로고
    • Estimating dimension of a model
    • 10.1214/aos/1176344136 0090-5364
    • Schwarz G 1978 Estimating dimension of a model Ann. Stat. 6 461-4
    • (1978) Ann. Stat. , vol.6 , pp. 461-464
    • Schwarz, G.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.