Pest outbreak distribution and forest management impacts in a changing climate in British Columbia

Environmental Science and Policy

Volumn 26, Issue , 2013, Pages 75-89

  Murdock, Trevor Q ^a   Taylor, Stephen W ^b   Flower, Aquila ^a,d   Mehlenbacher, Alan ^a   Montenegro, Alvaro ^a,e   Zwiers, Francis W ^a   Alfaro, René ^b   Spittlehouse, David L ^c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF VICTORIA   (Canada)

^b PACIFIC FORESTRY CENTRE   (Canada)

^c RESEARCH BRANCH   (Canada)

^d UNIVERSITY OF OREGON   (United States)

^e ST FRANCIS XAVIER UNIVERSITY   (Canada)

Author keywords

British Columbia; Climate impacts; Downscaling; Economics; Forest management; Forestry; Pest outbreak

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; BEETLE; CHORISTONEURA OCCIDENTALIS; CLIMATE CHANGE; DENDROCTONUS RUFIPENNIS; ENVIRONMENTAL FACTOR; ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION; EPIDEMIC; FLOW RATE; FOREST; FORESTRY; LEPIDOPTERA; NONHUMAN; PEST OUTBREAK; POLICY; PRIORITY JOURNAL;

CHORISTONEURA OCCIDENTALIS; COLEOPTERA; CURCULIONIDAE; DENDROCTONUS RUFIPENNIS; HEXAPODA; LEPIDOPTERA; PICEA; SCOLYTINAE; TORTRICIDAE;

EID: 84871714016     PISSN: 14629011     EISSN: 18736416     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2012.07.026     Document Type: Article

References (54)

1. Abbott C.L., Bennett K.E., Campbell K., Murdock T.Q., Swain H. Summary Report Forest Pests and Climate Change Symposium: 14-15 October 2007 2008, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Victoria, BC.
2. Alfaro R.I., Van Sickle G.A., Thomson A.J., Wegwitz E. Tree mortality and radial growth losses caused by the western spruce budworm in a Douglas-fir stand in British Columbia. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 1982, 12:780-787.
3. Alfaro R.I., Taylor S., Brown R.G., Clowater J.S. Susceptibility of northern British Columbia forests to spruce budworm defoliation. Forest Ecology and Management 2001, 145:181-190.
4. BCMFOR (BC Ministry of Forests Range) Preparing for Climate Change: Adapting to Impacts on British Columbia's Forest and Range Resources 2006, BCMFOR, Victoria, BC.
5. BCMOF (BC Ministry of Forests), 1995. Bark Beetle Management Guidebook, Chapter 3b. http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/tasb/legsregs/fpc/fpcguide/beetle/chap3b.htm%23Link22.
6. Bentz B.J., Régnière J., Fettig C.J., Hansen E.M., Hayes J.L., Hicke J.A., Kelsey R.G., Negrón J.F., Seybold S.J. Climate change and bark beetles of the western United States and Canada: direct and indirect effects. Bioscience 2010, 60:602-613.
7. Berg E. Studies in the wilderness areas of the Kenai National Wildlife Refuge: fire, bark beetles, human development and climate change. Proc. of the wilderness science in a time of change conference, vol. 3, Wilderness as a place for scientific inquiry 2000, USDA For. Serv, RMRS-P-15-Vol-3.
8. Bettinger P., Groetz D., Boston K., Sessions J., Chung W. Eight heuristic planning techniques applied to three increasingly difficult planning problems. Silva Fennica 2002, 36:561-584.
9. Borges J.G., Hoganson H.M., Rose D.W. Combining a decomposition strategy with dynamic programming to solve spatially constrained forest management scheduling problems. Forest Science 1999, 45:201-212.
10. Carroll, A., Taylor, S., Regniere, J. and Safranyik, L. 2004. Effects of climate change on range expansion by the mountain pine beetle in British Columbia. In: Proceedings of "Mountain Pine Beetle Symposium: Challenges and Solutions", October 30-31, 2003, pp. 233-244, Kelowna, B.C. T.L. Shore and J.E. Stone (Eds.), NRCAN, Can. For. Serv., Pac. For. Cent. Info Rep. BC-X-399, Victoria, BC, p. 298.
11. Daly C., Gibson W., Taylor G., Johnson G., Pasteris P. A knowledge-based approach to the statistical mapping of climate. Climate Research 2002, 22:99-113.
12. Dawson T.P., Jackson S.T., House J.I., Prentice I.C., Mace G.M. Beyond predictions: biodiversity conservation in a changing climate. Science 2011, 332(6025):53-58.
13. Eveleigh E., McCann K., McCarthy P., Pollock S., ç Lucarotti C., Morin B., McDougall G., Strongman D., Huber J., Umbanhowar J., Faria L. Fluctuations in density of an outbreak species drive diversity cascades in food webs. Proceedings of National Academy of Sciences of United States of America 2007, 104(43):16976-16981.
14. Ford, K., Taylor, S., 2007. Development of a BioSIM model of western spruce budworm development and Douglas-fir budflush, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium Technical Report to Forest Science Program, p. 26.
15. Garbutt, R., Hawkes, B., Allen, E., 2007. Spruce beetle and the forests of the Southwest Yukon. Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Victoria, British Columbia, Information Report BC-X-406.
16. 2 fertilization of forests over the 20th century. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 2010, 24(3):GB3027.
17. Hansen E.M., Bentz B.J., Turner D.L. Temperature-based model for predicting univoltine brood proportions in spruce beetle (Coleoptera: Scolytidae). The Canadian Entomologist 2001, 133:827-841.
18. Harris J.W.E., Alfaro, R.I., Dawson, A.F., and Brown, R.G., 1985. The western spruce budworm in British Columbia, 1909-1983. Canadian Forestry Service, Pacific Forest Research Centre, Inf. Rep. BC-X-257, p. 32.
19. Heppner D., Turner J. Spruce weevil and western spruce budworm forest health stand establishment decision aids. BC Journal of Ecosystems and Management 2006, 7:45-49.
20. Holling C.S. Resilience and stability of ecological systems. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 1973, 4:1-23.
21. Humphreys N., Safranyik L. Spruce beetle. Forest Pest Leaflet 1993, Forestry Canada, Pacific Forestry Centre, Victoria, BC.
22. Klinka K., Chourmouzis C. Ecological and silvical characteristics of the major tree species in British Columbia. Forestry Handbook for British Columbia 2005, 326-344. University of British Columbia, Forestry Undergraduate Society, Vancouver, BC. 5th ed. S.B. Watts, L. Tolland (Eds.).
23. Kurz W.E. An ecosystem context for global gross forest cover loss estimates. Proceedings of National Academy of Sciences 2010, 107(20):9025-9026.
24. Kurz W.A., Dymond C.C., Stinson G., Rampley G.J., Neilson E.T., Carroll A.L., Ebata T., Safranyik L. Mountain pine beetle and forest carbon feedback to climate change. Nature 2008, 452:987-990.
25. Logan J.A., Powell X. Ghost forests, global warming and the mountain pine beetle. American Entomologist 2001, 47:160-173.
26. Logan J.A., Régnière J., Powell J.A. Assessing the impacts of global warming on forest pest dynamics. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 2003, 3:130-137.
27. Loso M.G. Productivity, population structure, and subsistence use of a white spruce forest in Kennicott Valley, Alaska. Mountain Research and Development. 1998, 18:285-308.
28. Mathey A.-H., Krcmar E., Tait D., Vertinsky I., Innes J. Forest planning using co-evolutionary cellular automata. Forest Ecology and Management 2007, 239:45-56.
29. McKenney D.W., Pedlar J.H., Lawrence K., Campbell K., Hutchinson M. Potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of North American trees. BioScience 2007, 57(11):939-948.
30. McLean J.A., van der Kamp B., Behennah A.L. Forest pest management. Forestry Handbook for British Columbia 2005, 525-5557. University of British Columbia, Forestry Undergraduate Society, Vancouver, BC. 5th ed. S.B. Watts, L. Tolland (Eds.).
31. Murdock T.Q., Spittlehouse D.L. Selecting and Using Climate Change Scenarios for British Columbia 2011, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, p. 39.
32. Okland B., Bjørnstad O.N. A resource depletion model of forest insect outbreaks. Ecology 2006, 87:283-290.
33. Patriquin M.N., Wellstead A.M., White W.A. Beetles, trees, and people: Regional economic impact sensitivityand policy considerations related to the mountain pine beetle infestation in British Columbia. Canada Forest Policy and Economics 2007, 9:938-946.
34. Pedersen, L., 2003. Allowable Annual Cuts in British Columbia: The Agony and the Ecstasy. UBC Faculty of Forestry Jubilee Lecture.
35. Perkins, P., Taylor, S., 2005. BC Natural Disturbance Database Project. Boreus, January 2005.
36. Province of British Columbia. 2007. Vegetation Resources Inventory. http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hts/vri/index.html.
37. Régnière, J., Cooke, B., Bergeron, V., 1995. BioSIM: a computer-based decision support tool for seasonal planning of pest management activities. User's Manual. Nat. Resour. Can., Can. For. Serv., Laurentian For. Cent. Info. Rep. LAU-X-116, p. 68.
38. Rehfeldt G.E., Crookston N.L., Sáenz-Romero C., Campbell E.M. Ecological Applications 2012, 22(1):119-141.
39. Robertson M.P., Caithness N., Villet M.H. A PCA-based modelling technique for predicting environmental suitability for organisms from presence records. Diversity and Distributions 2001, 7:15-27.
40. Safranyik L. Infestation incidence and mortality in white spruce stands by Dendroctonus rufipennis Kirby (Coleoptera, Scolytidae) in central British Columbia. Zeitschrift fur angewandte Entomolgie 1985, 99:86-93.
41. Safranyik L., Carroll A.L. The biology and epidemiology of the mountain pine beetle in lodgepole pine forests. The mountain pine beetle: a synthesis of biology, management, and impacts on lodgepole pine 2006, 3-66. Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Pacific Forestry Centre, Victoria, BC, (Chapter 1), p. 304. L. Safranyik, W.R. Wilson (Eds.).
42. Shepherd, R.F., 1985. A Theory on the Effects of Diverse Host-Climatic Environments in British Columbia on the Dynamics of Western Spruce Budworm. pp. 6-70 in C.J. Sanders, R.W. Stark, E.J. Mullins, and J. Murphy, Editors. Recent Advances in Spruce Budworms Research, Proceedings: CANUSA Spruce Budworms Res. Symp. September 16-20, 1984, Bangor, Maine. Agriculture Canada, Ministry of State for Forestry, Ottawa.
43. Snetsinger J. Okanagan Timber Supply Area: Rationale for Allowable Annual Cut (AAC) Determination 2006, British Columbia Ministry of Forests and Range.
44. Spittlehouse D.L. Integrating climate change adaptation into forest management. The Forestry Chronicle 2005, 81:691-695.
45. St Clair J., Howe G. Genetic maladaptation of coastal Douglas-fir seedlings to future climates. Global Change Biology 2007, 13:1441-1454.
46. Stahl K., McKendry I.G., Moore R.D. Climatology of winter cold spells in British Columbia, Canada, in relation to Mountain Pine Beetle mortality. Climate Research 2006, 32:13-23.
47. Taylor S.W., Carroll A.L., Alfaro R.I., Safranyik L. Forest, climate and mountain pine beetle outbreak dynamics in Western Canada. The Mountain Pine Beetle. A Synthesis of Biology, Management and Impacts on Lodgepole Pine 2006, 67-94. Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Pacific Forestry Centre, Victoria, BC, Canada, (Chapter 2), p. 304. L. Safranik, B. Wilson (Eds.).
48. Thomson A.J., Moncrieff S.M. Prediction of bud burst in Douglas-fir by degree-day accumulation. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 1982, 12:448-452.
49. Thomson A.J., Shepherd R.F., Harris J.W.E., Silversides R.H. Relating weather to outbreaks of western spruce budworm, Choristoneura occidentalis (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), in British Columbia. The Canadian Entomologist 1984, 116:375-381.
50. van Kooten G.C., Krcmar E., Stennes B., van Gorkum R. Economics of fossil fuel substitution and wood product sinks when trees are planted to sequester carbon on agricultural lands in western Canada. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 1999, 29:1669-1678.
51. Walton A. Provincial-level projection of the current mountain pine beetle outbreak: update of the infestation projection based on the 2009 provincial aerial overview of forest health and the BCMPB model (year 7). BC Ministry of Forests Research Branch 2010.
52. Wang T., Hamann A., Spittlehouse D.L., Aitken S.N. Development of scale-free climate data for western Canada for use in resource management. International Journal of Climatology 2006, 26:383-397.
53. Woods A., Coates K.D., Hamann A. Is an unprecedented Dothistroma needle blight epidemic related to climate change?. Bioscience 2005, 55:761-769.
54. Zhang Q., Alfaro R.I., Hebda R.J. Dendroecological studies of tree growth, climate and spruce beetle outbreaks in Central British Columbia, Canada. Forest Ecology and Management 1999, 121:215-225.