Developing a temperature-driven map of the basic reproductive number of the emerging tick vector of Lyme disease Ixodes scapularis in Canada

Journal of Theoretical Biology

Volumn 319, Issue , 2013, Pages 50-61

  Wu, Xiaotian ^a   Duvvuri, Venkata R ^a   Lou, Yijun ^b   Ogden, Nicholas H ^c   Pelcat, Yann ^c   Wu, Jianhong ^a  

^a YORK UNIVERSITY   (Canada)

^b HONG KONG POLYTECHNIC UNIVERSITY   (Hong Kong)

^c PUBLIC HEALTH AGENCY OF CANADA   (Canada)

Author keywords

Climate; Lyme; Mapping; Tick

Indexed keywords

ABUNDANCE; DISEASE CONTROL; DISEASE VECTOR; LYME DISEASE; MAPPING; PUBLIC HEALTH; RISK ASSESSMENT; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; SURVIVAL; TEMPERATURE GRADIENT; TICK;

ARTICLE; CANADA; CONTROLLED STUDY; DEVELOPMENTAL BIOLOGY; FOURIER ANALYSIS; GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION; GEOGRAPHIC MAPPING; GEOGRAPHIC ORIGIN; IXODES SCAPULARIS; LYME DISEASE; MATHEMATICAL MODEL; NONHUMAN; PARASITE VECTOR; POPULATION MODEL; PRIORITY JOURNAL; REPRODUCTION; RISK ASSESSMENT; SEASONAL VARIATION; SUMMER; SURVIVAL RATE; TEMPERATURE SENSITIVITY;

ANIMALS; ARTHROPOD VECTORS; CANADA; COMMUNICABLE DISEASES, EMERGING; IXODES; LYME DISEASE; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; REPRODUCTION;

CANADA;

ARTHROPODA; IXODES SCAPULARIS; IXODIDA;

EID: 84871431181     PISSN: 00225193     EISSN: 10958541     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2012.11.014     Document Type: Article

References (49)

1. Anderson R.M., May R.M. Infectious Diseases of Humans. Dynamics and Control 1991, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
2. Bacaër N., Guernaoui S. The epidemic threshold of vector-borne diseases with seasonality. the case of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Chichaoua, Morocco. J. Math. Biol. 2006, 53:421-436. 10.1007/s00285-006-0015-0.
3. Bacon R.M., Kugeler K.J., Mead P.S. Surveillance for Lyme disease-United States, 1992-2006. MMWR Surveillance Summ. 2008, 57:1-9.
4. Caraco T., Glavanakov S., Chen G., Flaherty J.E., Ohsumi T.K., Szymanski B.K. Stage-structured infection transmission and a spatial epidemic. a model for Lyme disease. Am. Nat. 2002, 160:348-359. 10.1086/341518.
5. Dennis D.T., Nekomoto T.S., Victor J.C., Paul W.S., Piesman J. Reported distribution of Ixodes scapularis and Ixodes pacificus (Acari: Ixodidae) in the United States. J. Med. Entomol. 1998, 35:629-638.
6. Diekmann O., Heesterbeek J.A.P. Mathematical Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases. Model Building, Analysis and Interpretation 2000, Wiley, New York.
7. Dobson A. Population dynamics of pathogens with multiple host species. Am. Nat. 2004, 164:S64-78. 10.1086/424681.
8. Dobson A.D.M., Finnie T.J.R., Randolph S.E. A modified matrix model to describe the seasonal population ecology of the European tick Ixodes ricinus. J. Appl. Ecol. 2011, 48:1017-1028. 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2011.02003.x.
9. Ferguson N.M., Cummings D.A., Cauchemez S., Fraser C., Riley S., Meeyai A., Iamsirithaworn S., Burke D.S.D.S. Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia. Nature 2005, 437:209-214. 10.1038/nature04017.
10. Foppa I.M. The basic reproductive number of tick-borne encephalitis virus: an empirical approach. J. Math. Biol. 2005, 51:616-628. 10.1187/cbe.10-08-0099.
11. Fraser C., Donnelly C.A., Cauchemez S., Hanage W.P., Kerkhove M.D.V., Hollingsworth T.D., Griffin J., Baggaley R.F., Jenkins H.E., Lyons E.J., Jombart T., Hinsley W.R., Grassly N.C., Balloux F., Ghani A.C., Ferguson N.M., Rambaut A., Pybus O.G., Lopez-Gatell H., Alpuche-Aranda C.M., Chapela I.B., Zavala E.P., Guevara D.M.E., Checchi F., Garcia E., Hugonnet S., Roth C. Pandemic potential of a strain of influenza A (H1N1). early findings. Science 2009, 324:1557-1561. T.W.R.P.A. Collaboration. 10.1126/science.1176062.
12. Ghosh M., Pugliese A. Seasonal population dynamics of ticks, and its influence on infection transmission. a semi-discrete approach. Bull. Math. Biol. 2004, 66:1659-1684. 10.1016/j.bulm.2004.03.007.
13. Githeko A.K., Lindsay S.W., Confalonieri U.E., Patz J.A. Climate change and vector-borne diseases. a regional analysis. Bull. WHO 2000, 78:1136-1147. 10.1590/S0042-96862000000900009.
14. Gumel A., Ruan S., Day T., Watmough J., van den Driessche P., Gabrielson D., Bowman C., Alexander M.E., Ardal S., Wu J., Sahai B.M. Modeling strategies for controlling SARS outbreaks based on Toronto, Hong Kong, Singapore and Beijing experience. Proc. R. Soc. London 2004, 271:2223-2232. 10.1098/rspb.2004.2800.
15. Hale J.K. Ordinary Different Equations 1980, Krieger. 2nd ed.
16. Hartemink N.A., Randolph S.E., Davis S.A., Heesterbeek J.A.P. The basic reproduction number for complex disease systems. defining R(0) for tick-borne infections. Am. Nat. 2008, 171:743-754. 10.1086/587530.
17. 0) for vector-borne diseases. a case study on bluetongue virus. Epidemics 2009, 1:153-161. 10.1016/j.epidem.2009.05.004.
18. Hartemink N., Vanwambeke S.O., Heesterbeek H., Rogers D., Morley D., Pesson B., Davies C., Mahamdallie S., Ready P. Integrated mapping of establishment risk for emerging vector-borne infections. a case study of canine leishmaniasis in southwest France. PLoS One 2011, 6:e20817. 10.1371/journal.pone.0020817.
19. IPCC, Climate Change, 2001. Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (WG I and II)). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
20. Klich M., Lankester M.W., Wu K.W. Spring migratory birds (Aves) extend the northern occurrence of blacklegged tick (Acari:Ixodidae). J. Med. Entomol. 1996, 33:581-585.
21. Leighton P.A., Koffi J.K., Pelcat Y., Lindsay L.R., Ogden N.H. Predicting the speed of tick invasion. an empirical model of range expansion for the Lyme disease vector Ixodes scapularis in Canada. J. Appl. Ecol. 2012, 49:457-464. 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2012.02112.x.
22. Lindsay, L.R. 1995. Factors Limiting the Density of the Black-Legged Tick, Ixodes scapularis, in Ontario, Canada. Ph.D. Thesis. University of Guelph.
23. Lindsay L.R., Barker I.K., Surgeoner G.A., McEwen S.A., Gillespie T.J., Addison E.M. Survival and development of the different life stages of Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) held within four habitats on Long Point, Ontario, Canada. J. Med. Entomol. 1998, 35:189-199.
24. Marino S., Hogue I.B., Ray C.J., Kirschner D.E. A methodology for performing global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in systems biology. J. Theor. Biol. 2008, 254:178-196. 10.1016/j.jtbi.2008.04.011.
25. Mckay M.D., Beckman R.J., Conover W.J. Comparison of 3 methods for selecting values of input variables in the analysis of output from a computer code. Technometrics 1979, 21:239-245.
26. Morshed M.G., Scott J.D., Banerjee S.N., Banerjee M., Fitzgerald T., Fernando K., Mann R., Isaac-Renton J. First isolation of Lyme disease spirochete, Borrelia burgdorferi, from blacklegged tick, Ixodes scapularis, removed from a bird in Nova Scotia, Canada. Can. Commun. Dis. Rep. 1999, 25:153-155.
27. Mount G.A., Haile D.G. Computer simulation of population dynamics of the American dog tick (Acari: Ixodidae). J. Med. Entomol. 1989, 26:60-76.
28. Mount G.A., Haile D.G., Daniels E. Simulation of blacklegged tick (Acari:Ixodidae) population dynamics and transmission of Borrelia burgdorferi. J. Med. Entomol. 1997, 34:461-484.
29. Norman R., Bowers R.G., Begon M., Hudson P.J. Persistence of tick-borne virus in the presence of multiple host species. tick reservoirs and parasite mediated competition. J. Theor. Biol. 1999, 200:111-118. 10.1006/jtbi.1999.0982.
30. Ogden N.H., Lindsay L.R., Beauchamp G., Charron D.F., Maarouf A., O'Callaghan C.J., Waltner-Toews D., Barker I.K. Investigation of relationships between temperature and developmental rates of tick Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) in the laboratory and field. J. Med. Entomol. 2004, 41:622-633.
31. Ogden N.H., Bigras-Poulin M., O'Callaghan C.J., Barker I.K., Lindsay L.R., Maarouf A., Smoyer-Tomic K.E., Waltner-Toews D., Charron D.F. A dynamic population model to investigate effects of climate on geographic range and seasonality of the tick Ixodes scapularis. Int. J. Parasitol. 2005, 35:375-389. 10.1016/j.ijpara.2004.12.013.
32. Ogden N.H., Maarouf A., Barker I.K., Bigras-Poulin M., Lindsay L.R., Morshed M.G., O'Callaghan C.J., Ramay F., Waltner-Toews D., Charron D.F. Climate change and the potential for range expansion of the Lyme disease vector Ixodes scapularis in Canada. Int. J. Parasitol. 2006, 36:63-70. 10.1016/j.ijpara.2005.08.016.
33. Ogden N.H., Barker I.K., Beauchamp G., Brazeau S., Charron D.F., Maarouf A., Morshed M.G., O'Callaghan C.J., Thompson R.A., Waltner-Toews D., Waltner-Toews M., Lindsay L.R. Investigation of ground level and remote-sensed data for habitat classification and prediction of survival of Ixodes scapularis in habitats of southeastern Canada. J. Med. Entomol. 2006, 43:403-414. 10.1603/0022-2585(2006)043[0403:IOGLAR]2.0.CO;2.
34. Ogden N.H., Bigras-Poulin M., O'callaghan C.J., Barker I.K., Kurtenbach K., Lindsay L.R., Charron D.F. Vector seasonality, host infection dynamics and fitness of pathogens transmitted by the tick Ixodes scapularis. Parasitology 2007, 134:209-227. 10.1017/S0031182006001417.
35. Ogden N.H., Lindsay L.R., Hanincová K., Barker I.K., Bigras-Poulin M., Charron D.F., Heagy A., Francis C.M., O'Callaghan C.J., Schwartz I., Thompson R.A. Role of migratory birds in introduction and range expansion of Ixodes scapularis ticks and of Borrelia burgdorferi and Anaplasma phagocytophilum in Canada. Appl. Environ. Microbiol. 2008, 74:1780-1790. 10.1128/AEM.00857-08.
36. Ogden N.H., St-Onge L., Barker I.K., Brazeau S., Bigras-Poulin M., Charron D.F., Francis C.M., Heagy A., Lindsay L.R., Maarouf A., Michel P., Milord F., O'Callaghan C.J., Trudel L., Thompson R.A. Risk maps for range expansion of the Lyme disease vector, Ixodes scapularis in, Canada now and with climate change. Int. J. Health Geogr. 2008, 22:7-24. 10.1186/1476-072X-7-24.
37. Ogden N.H., Lindsay L.R., Morshed M., Sockett P.N., Artsob H. The rising challenge of Lyme borreliosis in Canada. Can. Commun. Dis. Rep. 2008, 34:1-19.
38. Ogden N.H., Lindsay L.R., Morshed M., Sockett P.N., Artsob H. The emergence of Lyme disease in Canada. Can. Med. Assoc. J. 2009, 180:1221-1224. 10.1503/cmaj.080148.
39. Ogden N.H., Bouchard C., Kurtenbach K., Margos G., Lindsay L.R., Trudel L., Nguon S., Milord F. Active and passive surveillance and phylogenetic analysis of Borrelia burgdorferi elucidate the process of Lyme disease risk emergence in Canada. Environ. Health Perspect. 2010, 118:909-914. 10.1289/ehp.0901766.
40. Parmesan C., Yohe G. A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 2003, 421:37-42. 10.1038/nature01286.
41. Porco T.C. A mathematical model of the ecology of Lyme disease. Math. Med. Biol. 1999, 126:261-296. 10.1093/imammb/16.3.261.
42. Randolph S.E., Miklisova D., Lysy J., Rogers D.J., Labuda M. Incidence from coincidence. patterns of tick infestations on rodents facilitate transmission of tick-borne encephalitis virus. Parasitology 1999, 118:177-186.
43. Rosá R., Pugliese A. Effects of tick population dynamics and host densities on the persistence of tick-borne infections. Math. Biosci. 2007, 208:216-240. 10.1016/j.mbs.2006.10.002.
44. Rosá R., Pugliese A., Norman R., Hudson P.J. Thresholds for disease persistence in models for tick-borne infections including non-viraemic transmission, extended feeding and tick aggregation. J. Theor. Biol. 2003, 224:359-376. 10.1016/S0022-5193(03)00173-5.
45. Schmidt K.A., Ostfeld R.S. Biodiversity and the dilution effect in disease ecology. Ecology 2001, 82:609-619. 10.1890/0012-9658(2001)082[0609:BATDEI]2.0.CO;2.
46. Smith D.L., McKenzie F.E., Snow R.W., Hay S.I. Revisiting the basic reproductive number for malaria and its implications for malaria control. PLoS Biol. 2007, 5:e42. 10.1371/journal.pbio.0050042.
47. The malERA Consultative Group on Modeling. 2011. A Research Agenda for Malaria Eradication: Modeling. PLoS Med. 8, e1000403. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1000403.
48. Wang W., Zhao X.-Q. Threshold dynamics for compartmental epidemic models in periodic environments. J. Dyn. Diff. Equat. 2008, 20:699-717. 10.1007/s10884-008-9111-8.
49. Webb G., Blaser M., Zhu H., Ardal S., Wu J. Critical role of nosocomial transmission in the Toronto SARS outbreak. Math. Biosci. Eng. 2004, 1:1-13.