Traditional conclusions in footwear examinations versus the use of the bayesian approach and likelihood ratio: A review of a recent UK appellate court decision

Law, Probability and Risk

Volumn 11, Issue 4, 2012, Pages 279-287

  Bodziak, William J ^a  

^a Bodziak Forensics   (United States)

Author keywords

Bayesian approach; Footwear mark; Shoe size

Indexed keywords

EID: 84871336947     PISSN: 14708396     EISSN: 1470840X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1093/lpr/mgs018     Document Type: Article

References (12)

1. Case No: 2007/03644/D2, High Court of Justice Court of Appeal, Strand London, October 26, (EWCA [2010], Crim 2439).2010
2. Bodziak, W., 'Traditional Reporting of Footwear Examination Results by the FBI and other Laboratories in the United States', presented as part of panel discussion at the European Meeting for Shoeprint/Tool Mark Examiners, Berlin, Germany, 15-18 May 2001.
3. The redacted court opinion only contained partial quotes from the results and reports of Mr. Ryder.
4. Normally a database such as this would only containmarks from other crime scenes that had been recovered prior to and up to the search, and for several prior years.
5. http://www.britfoot.com/documents/Footwear%20sizes%202003.doc Which details a report from , reportedly updated in 1985, showing that a size 11 men's shoe is used by 3% of the UK male population.1972
6. Bodziak, W.J., Footwear Impression Evidence, Elsevier Sciences Publishing Co., NY, NY, (1990) p.177.
7. Bodziak, W.J., Footwear Impression Evidence: Detection, Recovery and Examination, 2nd edn., CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL (2000) p. 191.
8. Personal communication with Mr. Herb Hedges, Nike, Inc, Beaverton, Oregon, 24 January 2011.
9. Editor's comment: the confusion of 0.333 for 3% is the Court's-see paragraph 36.
10. For example, if a total of 2000men's shoe designs (a very conservative number) were available in a particular town or area and each design came only in 15 different sizes, presuming all sales and sizes were equal, this would equate to 1 shoe in every 30 000 (1/30 000) for any particular size and design.
11. Girod, A., Champod, C., Ribaux, O., Traces De Souliers, Presses polytechniques et universitaires romandes, 2008, p. 210.
12. The conclusion 'could have made' means that the specific design and dimensions of the footwear is 'capable' of having produced the crime scene mark, but so are thousands of other footwear of that same 'design and dimension' also sold to the general public.