A SVECM Analysis of the Relationship between International Tourism Arrivals, GDP and Trade in Italy

Journal of Travel Research

Volumn 52, Issue 1, 2013, Pages 93-105

  Massidda, Carla ^a   Mattana, Paolo ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CAGLIARI   (Italy)

Author keywords

real GDP; short run and long run causality; SVECM; tourism arrivals; trade

Indexed keywords

COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS; GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT; STRATEGIC APPROACH; TOURISM ECONOMICS; TOURISM MANAGEMENT; TOURIST DESTINATION;

ITALY;

EID: 84870847050     PISSN: 00472875     EISSN: 15526763     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1177/0047287512457262     Document Type: Article

References (53)

1. Akinboade O. A.,Braimoh L. A.International Tourism and Economic Development in South Africa: A Granger Causality Test.International Journal of Tourism Research. 2010;12:146-63.
2. Ahmed J.,Kwan A. C. C.Causality between Exports and Economic Growth.Economic Letters. 1991;37:243-48.
3. Amisano G.,Giannini C.Topics in Structural VAR Econometrics. 1997). Topics in Structural VAR Econometrics (2nd ed.). Berlin: Springer-Verlag.Berlin: Springer-Verlag; 1997:.
4. Aradhyula S.,Tronstad R.Does Tourism Promote Cross-Border Trade?".American Journal of Agricultural Economics. 2003;85:569-79.
5. Asikainen, A. (2003). Long Memory and Structural Breaks in Finnish and Swedish Party Popularity Series. University of Helsinki, Department of Economics, Discussion Papers 586.
6. Assaf A. G.,Pestana-Barros C.,Gil-Alana L.Persistence in the Short- and Long-term Tourist Arrivals to Australia.Journal of Travel Research. 2011;50:213-29.
7. Baillie R. T.,Chung C.,Tieslau M. A.Analyzing Inflation by the Fractionally Integrated Arfima-Garch Model.Journal of Applied Econometrics. 1996;1:23-40.
8. Balaguer J.,Cantavella-Jordá M.Tourism as a Long-Run Economic Growth Factor: The Spanish Case.Applied Economics. 2002;34:877-84.
9. Çetintaş H.,Barişik S.Export, Import and Economic Growth: The Case of Transition Economies.Transition Studies Review. 2009;15:636-49.
10. Cortés-Jiménez I.,Pulina M.A Further Step into the ELGH and TLGH for Spain and Italy." Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.Nota di lavoro. 2006;:118.
11. Cuñado J.,Gil-Alana L. A.,Perez de Gracia F.Fractional Integration and Structural Breaks: Evidence from the International Monthly Arrivals in the US.Tourism Economics. 2008;14:13-23.
12. Deme M.An Examination of the Trade-Led Growth Hypothesis in Nigeria: A Co-integration Causality, and Impulse Response Analysis.The Journal of Developing Areas. 2002;36:1-15.
13. Dritsakis N.Tourism as a Long-Run Economic Growth Factor: An Empirical Investigation for Greece Using Causality Analysis.Tourism Economics. 2004;10:305-16.
14. Durbarry R.Tourism and Economic Growth: The Case of Mauritius.Tourism Economics. 2004;10:389-401.
15. Elliott G.,Rothenberg T.,Stock J. H.Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root.Econometrica. 1996;64:813-39.
16. Eugenio-Martin J. L.,Morales N. M.Tourism and Economic Growth in Latin American Countries: A Panel Data Approach. 2004;:.
17. Fischer C.The Influence of Immigration and International Tourism on the Demand for Imported Food Products.Food Economics. 2004;1:21-33.
18. Fischer C.,Gil-Alana L. A.The Nature of the Relationship between International Tourism and International Trade: The Case of German Import of Spanish Wine.Applied Economics. 2009;41:1345-59.
19. Fry D.,Saayman A.,Saayman M.The Relationship between Tourism and Trade in South Africa.South African Journal of Economics. 2010;78:287-306.
20. Gil-Alana L. A.,Cuñado J.,Perez de Gracia F.Seasonal Fractional Integration in the Spanish Tourism Quarterly Time Series.Journal of Travel Research. 2004;52:408-14.
21. Gonzalo J.,Lee T. H.Pitfalls in Testing for Long-Run relationships.Journal of Econometrics. 1998;86:129-54.
22. Gonzalo J.,Lee T. H.On the Robustness of Cointegration Tests When Series Are Fractionally Integrated.Journal of Applied Statistics. 2000;27:821-827.
23. Gunduz L.,Hatemi J. A.Is the Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Turkey?".Applied Economics Letters. 2005;12:499-504.
24. Hall P.The Bootstrap and Edgeworth Expansion. New York: Springer; 1992:.
25. Hatemi J. A.,Irandoust M.Productivity Performance and Export Performance: A Time-Series Perspective.Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association. 2001;27:149-64.
26. Helpman E.,Krugman P.Market Structure and Foreign Trade. Cambridge MA: MIT Press; 1985:.
27. Jin C. J.Export-Led Growth and the Four Little Dragons.The Journal of International Trade and Economic Development. 1995;4:203-15.
28. Johansen S.Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors.Journal of Economics Dynamics and Control. 1988;12:231-54.
29. Johansen S.Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models.Econometrica. 1991;59:1551-80.
30. Katircioglu S. T.Tourism Trade and Growth: The Case of Cyprus.Applied Economics. 2009a;41:2741-50.
31. Katircioglu S. T.Revisiting the Tourism-Led-Growth Hypothesis for Turkey Using the Bounds Test and Johansen Approach for Cointegration.Tourism Management. 2009b;30:17-20.
32. Khan H.,Toh R. S.,Chua L.Tourism and Trade: Cointegration and Granger Causality Tests.Journal of Travel Research. 2005;44:171-76.
33. Kim J. H.,Chen M. H.,Jang S.Tourism Expansion and Economic Development: The Case of Taiwan.Tourism Management. 2006;27:925-33.
34. Krueger A.Trade Policy as an Input to Development.American Economic Review. 1980;70:188-292.
35. Kulendran N.,Wilson K.Is There a Relationship between International Trade and International Travel.Applied Economics. 2000;32:1001-9.
36. Kwan A. C. C.,Cotsomotis J.Economic Growth and the Expanding Export Sector: China 1952-1985.International Economic Review. 1991;5:105-17.
37. Kwiatkowski D.,Phillips P. C. B.,Schmidt P.,Shin Y.Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity against the Alternative of a Unit Root.Journal of Econometrics. 1992;54:159-78.
38. Lee C. C.,Chang C. P.Tourism Development and Economic Growth: A Closer Look at Panels.Tourism Management. 2008;29:180-92.
39. Lee D.,Schmidt P.On the Power of the KPSS Test of Stationarity against Fractionally Integrated Alternatives.Journal of Econometrics. 1996;73:285-302.
40. Marin D.Is the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Industrialized Countries.Review of Economics and Statistics. 1992;74:678-88.
41. McKinnon R.Foreign Exchange Constrain in Economic Development and Efficient Aid Allocation.International Economic Review. 1964;5:105-17.
42. Narayan P. K.Economic Impact of Tourism on Fiji's Economy: Empirical Evidence from the Computable General Equilibrium Model.Tourism Economics. 2004;10:419-33.
43. Nowak J. J.,Sahli M.,Cortés-Jiménez I.Tourism, Capital Good Imports and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence for Spain.Tourism Economics. 2007;13:515-36.
44. Oh C. K.The Contribution of Tourism Development to Economic Growth in the Korean Economy.Tourism Management. 2005;26:39-44.
45. Ongan S.,Demiroz D. M.The Contribution of Tourism to the Long-run Turkish Economic Growth.Ekonomicky Casopis. 2005;53:880-94.
46. Phillips P. C. B.,Perron P.Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression.Biometrika. 1988;75:335-46.
47. Santana-Gallego M.,Ledesma-Rodríguez F. J.,Pérez-Rodríguez J.Economics of Sustainable Tourism. Cerina F.Markandya A.McAleer M., ed. New York: Routledge; 2010:92-107.
48. Santana-Gallego M.,Ledesma-Rodríguez F. J.,Pérez-Rodríguez J.Tourism and Trade in OECD Countries. A Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel Data Analysis.Empirical Economics. 2011a;41:1-22.
49. Santana-Gallego M.,Ledesma-Rodríguez F. J.,Pérez-Rodríguez J.Tourism and Trade in Small Island Regions: The Case of the Canary Islands.Tourism Economics. 2011b;17:1-22.
50. SarmidiT.SallehN. H. (2010). "Dynamic Inter-relationship between Trade, Economic Growth and Tourism in Malaysia." Munich Personal RePEc Archive: Working Paper 21056.
51. Thornton J.Exports and Economic Growth: Evidence from 19th Century Europe.Economic Letters. 1997;55:235-40.
52. UNWTO (World Tourism Organization). (2011). Tourism Highlights
53. WTTC (World Travel &Tourism Council). (2010). Travel &Tourism Economic Impact (Italy).